高盛-中国定制家具投资策略分析-20181219-44页.pdf

Chi nas customi zed furni ture i ndustry though faci ng headwi nds from a property downcycl e and i ntensi fyi ng competi ti on,especi al l y i n the furni ture mal l channel offers a si gni ficant consol i dati on opportuni ty i n a vast,yet fragmented,market.Goi ng forward,we expect i ndustry l eaders to gradual l y,but consi stentl y,gai n share from smal l er pl ayers.We expect i ndustry l eaders,whi ch enj oy manufacturi ng and di stri buti on advantages,to benefit from the ri si ng porti on of furbi shed new properti es,accel erati ng thei r market share concentrati on.Developers channel:Long-term revenue opportunity for leading players Accordi ng to Al l Vi ew Cl oud(AVC),c.4.6mn uni ts of furbi shed new properti es were sol d i n 2018,23%of the total new properti es sol d.The number i s expected to ri se to 6.1mn by 2020E based on the 13th Fi ve-Year Pl an.I n compari son,Suofei ya,a l eadi ng wardrobe manufacturer,onl y had 0.6mn customers i n 2018.Hence,we bel i eve capturi ng even a smal l porti on of thi s growi ng segment wi l l transl ate i nto consi derabl e growth for furni ture compani es.Furthermore,we expect stri ngent requi rements on product speci ficati ons,del i very ti me and payment peri od wi l l mai nl y benefit l arge pl ayers wi th superi or financi al and di stri butor resources.Initiating on two market leaders;reiterate Buy on Suofeiya with 34%upside We expect Oppei n,a domi nant pl ayer i n ki tchen cabi nets and the devel opers channel,to grow revenue/net profit by 16%/13%CAGRs i n 2019E-20E,dri ven by:1)category expansi on;2)per-store sal es growth;and 3)conti nued i nvestment i n manufacturi ng expansi on.However,with the shares trading in l ine(6%downside)with our 12-month discounted EV/EBI TDA-based target price of Rmb82.0,we initiate at Neutral.Guangzhou Shangpi n has di fferenti ated i tsel f wi th more di rect-owned and shoppi ng mal l based stores,and a l arge revenue contri buti on from outsourced products.However,gi ven rel ati vel y l ess di fferenti ati on i n i ts furni ture products,we expect revenue growth to decel erate sharpl y i n 2019E,posi ng downsi de ri sk to the currentl y hi gh val uati on.We initiate at Sel l with a 12-m discounted EV/EBI TDA-based target price of Rmb49.0,impl ying 21%downside.We conti nue to favor Suofei ya for i ts i ndustry-l eadi ng manufacturi ng capabi l i ti es and di stri butor network.Reiterate Buy with 34%upside potential.Nicolas Yi+86(21)2401-8922|ni col as.yi Bei j i ng Gao Hua Securi ti es Company Li mi tedChina Consumer Durables Customized f urniture:Setting the tabl e Initiate Oppein at Neutral,Shangpin at Sel l;reiterate Buy on Suof eiya19 December 2018|8:06PM CSTGol dman Sachs does and seeks to do busi ness wi th compani es covered i n i ts research reports.As a resul t,i nvestors shoul d be aware that the firm may have a confli ct of i nterest that coul d affect the obj ecti vi ty of thi s report.I nvestors shoul d consi der thi s report as onl y a si ngl e factor i n maki ng thei r i nvestment deci si on.For Reg AC certi ficati on and other i mportant di scl osures,see the Di scl osure Appendi x,or go to ysts empl oyed by non-US affil i ates are not regi stered/qual i fied as research anal ysts wi th FI NRA i n the U.S.PM Summary:I ni ti ati ng on two customi zed furni ture manufacturers;l ong-term opportuni ty from devel opers channel3 Devel opers channel -The l ong-term growth avenue6 Oppei n:A ki tchen cabi net l eader and expandi ng i nto other segments,val uati on seems fai r,i ni ti ate at Neutral10 Guangzhou Shangpi n:Hi gh val uati on not j usti fied by di fferenti ated busi ness model,i ni ti ate at Sel l25 Suofei ya-Attracti ve val uati on for an i ndustry l eader,rei terate Buy38 Di scl osure Appendi x41 19 December 2018 2Goldman SachsChina Consumer DurablesTable of Contents PM Summary:Initiating on two customized furniture manufacturers;long-term opportunity from developers channel Customi zed furni ture manufacturers pri mari l y sel l through retai l channel s i n Chi na.Recentl y they have been payi ng more attenti on to the devel opers channel ami d property demand sl owdown and i ntensi fyi ng competi ti on i n retai l channel s.Accordi ng to AVC,onl y 23%of new properti es sol d were furbi shed i n Chi na i n 1H18.Per the 13th Fi ve-Year Pl an,the rati o i s expected to ri se to 30%i n 2020E dri ven by a combi nati on of favorabl e government pol i ci es and di fferenti ated competi ti on strategi es especi al l y from l eadi ng real estate devel opers.I n our vi ew,such penetrati on avenues wi l l present a si gni ficant revenue opportuni ty and pri mari l y benefit l eadi ng furni ture manufacturers wi th better financi al and di stri butor resources.We expect Suofei ya and Oppei n,the two key pl ayers i n the segment,to be the maj or benefici ari es of the trend gi ven thei r conti nuous i nvestment i n manufacturi ng capabi l i ti es and establ i shed di stri butor network.Suofeiya(Buy;12-m TP:Rmb24.4)We conti nue to favor Suofei ya as a maj or benefici ary of a structural growth i n customi zed furni ture i ndustry,due to i ts l eadi ng manufacturi ng capabi l i ti es and di stri butor network.Al though,i ndustry i s faci ng headwi nds from a short-term property downcycl e(for detai l s,r efer to Chi na Real Estate:Sl ower pr oper ty i nvestment i n 2019;consol i dati on to accel er ate,publ i shed on November 23,2018)and i ntensi fied competi ti on,we expect Suofei ya to mi ti gate the growth headwi nds by l aunchi ng more qual i ty products and i mprovi ng competi ti veness of i ts di stri butors by both provi di ng more financi al support and repl aci ng l ess effici ent di stri butors.Moreover,we expect devel opers channel to contri bute more to revenue growth i n comi ng years as the company conti nues cooperati ng wi th l arge devel opers and i nvesti ng i n manufacturi ng faci l i ti es.We expect revenue/net profit CAGR of 19%/16%i n 2019E-20E.With the stock currentl y trading at 15X 2019E P/E(vs.its 6-year median 12-m forward P/E of 27X),we reiterate Buy on the stock.Oppein(Neutral;12-m TP:Rmb82.0)Oppein-At a gl ance The l argest pl ayer in China kitchen cabinet market by revenue size:The pany deri ved Rmb5.4bn revenue from ki tchen cabi net busi ness i n 2017,greater than the sum of No.2-No.4 l i sted pl ayers.Recentl y Oppei n has been l everagi ng i ts strong brand i n ki tchen cabi net segment to expand i nto other product categori es such as wardrobe,wooden door,etc.One of the strongest distributor networks characterized by both extensive 2.reach and efficiency.By 1H18,the company had 6,711 stores across di fferent product categori es and ti ers of ci ti es,the l argest among al l competi tors.The company has the hi ghest per store sal es for ki tchen cabi net and has been rampi ng up qui ckl y i n the wardrobe segment as of 1H18.19 December 2018 3Goldman SachsChina Consumer DurablesA l eader in devel opers market.Oppei n deri ved Rmb964mn from the devel opers 3.channel i n 2017,hi ghest among i ts l i sted competi tors.The company has been partnered wi th l eadi ng devel opers for a l ong ti me and has devel oped an experi enced network di stri butors for devel opers to expand the busi ness and al l evi ate cash flow ri sks.I nvestment thesis We expect Oppei ns revenue to be dri ven by both new product category penetrati on and channel expansi on.We expect Oppei n to l everage i ts strong brand and di stri butor network i n ki tchen cabi net segment to dri ve up sal es i n other products such as wardrobes.On the other hand,we expect Oppei n to conti nue i ts expansi on i n both retai l and devel opers channel,uti l i zi ng i ts strong di stri butor network.However,we expect the margi ns to gradual l y trend down due to hi gher competi ti on and i ncreasi ng share of devel oper revenue.Factori ng i n the above,we expect revenue/net profit CAGR of 16%/13%i n 2019E-20E.Our 12-m target pri ce i s deri ved by appl yi ng a 12X exi t mul ti pl e to 2021E EBI TDA and di scounti ng back to 2018E at 9%COE.Wi th 6%downsi de to our TP,we i ni ti ate on Oppei n wi th a Neutral rati ng.Guangzhou Shangpin(Sell;12-m TP:Rmb49.0)Shangpin-At a gl ance A Leading customized furniture manufacturer with a unique channel strategy:1.We expect Shangpi n to deri ve c.39%of i ts total revenue i n 2018E from di rectl y-owned stores,vs.onl y 2%-3%for Suofei ya and Oppei n.Due to the opex-i ntensi ve nature of i ts channel strategy,Shangpi n has had much l ower profitabi l i ty compared to Suofei ya and Oppei n.However,si nce l ate 2017,Shangpi n has started focusi ng on an aggressi ve franchi se-dri ven strategy,recrui ti ng mul ti pl e di stri butors i n each ci ty(vs.onl y 1 or 2 for Suofei ya and Oppei n)to dri ve up revenue growth.Shopping mal l based store l ocation+onl ine marketing strategy:Shangpi n has 2.over 50%of i ts stores i n shoppi ng mal l s(vs.20%for Suofei ya),whi ch,i n our vi ew,hel ps i t to avoi d hi gh competi ti on i n furni ture mal l s.The company uti l i zes onl i ne marketi ng strategy i ncl udi ng i ts own websi te and other pl atforms such as Bai du and Taobao to funnel customer traffic to i ts shoppi ng mal l stores.Higher contribution from outsourced products:Shangpi n i s expected to deri ve c.3.20%of revenue from sal es of outsourced products i n 2018E based on our esti mates.(vs.4%for Suofei ya i n 2018E)I nvestment thesis We expect Shangpi ns revenue growth to be dri ven by i ncreasi ng franchi se store openi ngs and growth of outsourced products,however,at a decl i ni ng pace.We expect more store cl osures and sl ower per store sal es growth as newl y recrui ted di stri butors face more pressure duri ng the i ndustry downcycl e i n 2019E.On the other hand,we expect the sal es growth of outsourced products to decel erate al ong wi th the sal es from i ts customi zed furni ture segment.On the margi n si de,we expect GPM to trend down 19 December 2018 4Goldman SachsChina Consumer Durablesdue to ri si ng share of l ow-margi n franchi se revenue and outsourced products sal es.Factori ng i n the above,we expect revenue/net profit CAGR of 18%/17%i n 2019E-20E.Our 12-m target pri ce i s based on an 11X exi t mul ti pl e appl i ed to i ts 2021E EBI TDA and di scounted back to 2018E at 9%COE.Wi th 21%downsi de,we i ni ti ate on Guangzhou Shangpi n wi th a Sel l rati ng.Exhibit 1:Global appliances,furniture and automation comp 2017A2018E2019E2020E2017A2018E2019E2020E2017A2018E2019E2020EChina appliancesMidea Group000333.SZCNY38.81 50.00 29%Buy37.0 14%14.8x12.6x11.6x9.8x3.5x3.0 x2.6x2.3x10.9x8.3x7.6x6.2xGree Electric000651.SZCNY36.80 44.00 20%Neutral32.1 -2%9.9x7.8x9.0 x8.1x3.4x2.7x2.3x1.9x4.9x3.5x3.8x3.3xHaier Electronics1169.HKHKD18.54 23.90 29%Buy*6.6 12%13.7x12.0 x10.9x9.6x2.1x1.9x1.7x1.5x7.2x6.1x5.2x4.2xLittle Swan000418.SZCNY45.84 47.00 3%Neutral4.2 15%19.2x18.9x17.3x14.3x4.1x3.7x3.3x2.9x16.6x15.3x13.3x10.5xHangzhou Robam002508.SZCNY22.08 23.40 6%Neutral3.0 7%14.3x13.7x12.7x11.9x4.0 x3.5x3.0 x2.7x22.1x9.9x9.2x8.2xMedian20%6.6 12%14.3x12.6x11.6x9.8x3.5x3.0 x2.6x2.3x10.9x8.3x7.6x6.2xChina furnitureSuofeiya002572.SZCNY18.31 24.40 33%Buy2.5 16%18.6x16.7x14.6x12.5x3.8x3.4x3.0 x2.6x23.8x10.3x8.9x7.5xOppein603833.SSCNY87.67 82.00 -6%Neutral5.3 13%28.4x22.0 x19.9x17.4x5.9x5.0 x4.2x3.6x26.5x16.1x14.2x12.2xGZSP300616.SZCNY62.33 49.00 -21%Sell1.8 17%32.6x24.4x21.2x17.8x4.7x4.2x3.7x3.3x32.9x23.2x19.4x14.7xMedian-6%2.5 16%28.4x22.0 x19.9x17.4x4.7x4.2x3.7x3.3x26.5x16.1x14.2x12.2xChina LED lightingOpple Lighting603515.SSCNY27.99 32.00 14%Neutral3.1 12%30.8x24.6x23.1x19.5x5.8x5.0 x4.4x3.9x28.2x23.9x21.7x17.6xMedian14%3.1 12%30.8x24.6x23.1x19.5x5.8x5.0 x4.4x3.9x28.2x23.9x21.7x17.6xGlobal appliancesElectroluxELUXb.STSEK190 208 9%Neutral6.0 19%9.6x15.4x12.2x10.9x2.7x2.5x2.3x2.1x6.8x5.3x5.4x5.0 xDaikin6367.TJPY12,240 15,000 23%Neutral31.6 3%23.2x18.9x19.3x17.9x3.2x2.8x2.5x2.2x10.0 x10.7x10.0 x9.0 xPanasonic6752.TJPY1,068 1,800 69%Buy21.9 6%16.6x10.6x9.6x9.3x1.6x1.4x1.3x1.2x4.6x5.3x3.3x3.0 xArcelikARCLK.ISTRY15.25 19.90 30%Neutral1.9 50%12.2x15.5x8.9x6.9x1.5x1.4x1.3x1.1x10.3x7.7x6.0 x5.1xMedian27%13.9 13%14.4x15.4x10.9x10.1x2.1x2.0 x1.8x1.6x8.4x6.5x5.7x5.0 xGlobal automationFanuc6954.TJPY16,850 21,000 25%Neutral28.8 -11%25.6x18.0 x18.8x22.6x2.4x2.2xn.a.n.a.16.0 x15.4x11.0 x11.3xYaskawa6506.TJPY2,977 3,900 31%Buy7.0 4%38.9x19.9x17.4x18.2x4.0 x3.4x3.1x2.8x10.4x14.3x11.1x11.0 xABBABBN.SCHF19.2 Not Rated41.5 23%19.1x17.8x14.0 x11.8x2.8x2.7xn.a.n.a.11.1x8.8x7.7x6.9xMedian28%28.8 4%25.6x18.0 x17.4x18.2x2.8x2.7x3.1x2.8x11.1x14.3x11.0 x11.0 x P/EP/BEV/EBITDACompanyTickerPCYLast closing priceTarget priceUpside/(downside)Rating Mkt Cap(US$bn)18E-20E EPS CAGR2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020EChina appliancesMidea Group000333.SZCNY38.81 50.00 29%Buy23%23%21%22%17%15%14%15%3%4%4%5%8%10%8%11%Gree Electric000651.SZCNY36.80 44.00 20%Neutral37%38%27%26%17%20%13%11%0%5%4%5%6%12%7%6%Haier Electronics1169.HKHKD18.54 23.90 29%Buy*16%15%15%15%81%44%40%40%1%2%2%2%6%2%7%8%Little Swan000418.SZCNY45.84 47.00 3%Neutral20%18%17%18%27%25%27%34%2%2%3%3%6%9%9%9%Hangzhou Robam002508.SZCNY22.08 23.40 6%Neutral31%27%25%24%28%48%20%33%2%4%4%4%3%14%8%8%Median20%23%23%21%22%27%25%20%33%2%4%4%4%6%10%8%8%China furnitureSuofeiya002572.SZCNY18.31 24.40 33%Buy20%20%20%21%30%26%26%25%1%3%3%4%0%2%2%2%Oppein603833.SSCNY87.67 82.00 -6%Neutral29%25%23%22%52%42%33%30%1%1%2%2%0%0%0%2%GZSP300616.SZCNY62.33 49.00 -21%Sell22%18%19%20%49%28%47%49%1%1%2%2%3%1%2%6%Median-6%22%20%20%21%49%28%33%30%1%1%2%2%0%1%2%2%China LED lightingOpple Lighting603515.SSCNY27.99 32.00 14%Neutral20%22%20%21%22%26%28%33%1%1%2%2%4%5%5%5%Median14%20%22%20%21%22%26%28%33%1%1%2%2%4%5%5%5%Global appliancesElectroluxELUXb.STSEK190 208 9%Neutral30%23%20%20%16%12%12%12%3%5%5%5%7%2%4%6%Daikin6367.TJPY12,240 15,000 23%Neutral14%15%13%13%14%19%20%20%1%1%1%1%6%6%5%6%Panasonic6752.TJPY1,068 1,800 69%Buy8%13%13%12%8%12%12%12%2%2%3%3%3%3%7%8%ArcelikARCLK.ISTRY15.25 19.90 30%Neutral13%9%15%17%16%11%13%14%3%2%4%5%-4%-13%-6%9%Median27%14%14%14%15%15%12%12%13%3%2%4%4%4%3%4%7%Global automationFanuc6954.TJPY16,850 21,000 25%Neutral9%13%11%9%16%24%17%14%2%2%5%3%1%2%5%3%Yaskawa6506.TJPY2,977 3,900 31%Buy11%18%18%16%13%17%18%16%1%1%2%2%4%3%3%4%ABBABBN.SCHF19.2 Not Rated20%21%22%24%10%11%12%13%3%4%6%6%5%6%8%9%Median28%11%18%18%16%13%17%17%14%2%2%5%3%4%3%5%4%Dividend yieldFCF yieldROECROCICompanyTickerPCYLast closing priceTarget priceUpside/(downside)Rating Notes:*Denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List.TPs are on a 12-month time f rame.Prices as of 12/18/2018 Source:Bl oomberg,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research,Gao Hua Securities Research19 December 2018 5Goldman SachsChina Consumer DurablesDevelopers channel-The long-term growth avenue Al l maj or customi zed furni ture compani es experi enced si gni ficant revenue growth sl owdown i n 2018,resul ti ng i n share pri ce correcti on of an c.-31%vs.c.-22%for CSI 300 year-to-da