高盛2022年全球经济展望.pdf

OutlookPiloting ThroughInvestment Strategy Group|January 2022Consumer and Wealth ManagementHave you not succeeded?Continue!Have you succeeded?Continue!Fridtjof Nansen(18611930),Norwegian Polar Explorer,Nobel Laureate,First High Commissioner for Refugees,Creator of Nansen PassportsThis material represents the views of the Investment Strategy Group in the Consumer and Wealth Management Division of Goldman Sachs.It is not a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.The views and opinions expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other groups of Goldman Sachs.Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani Chief Investment Officer Investment Strategy Group Goldman Sachs Brett Nelson Head of Tactical Asset Allocation Investment Strategy Group Goldman Sachs The co-authors give special thanks to key contributors from the Investment Strategy Group:Matheus Dibo Vice PresidentKelly Han Vice PresidentHarm Zebregs Vice PresidentYousra Zerouali AnalystAdditional contributors from the Investment Strategy Group:Matthew Weir Managing DirectorVenkatesh Balasubramanian Managing DirectorOussama Fatri Managing DirectorAnna Tokar Vice PresidentYlber Bajraktari Vice PresidentMichael Murdoch Vice PresidentDaniel Toro Vice President1OutlookInvestment Strategy Group2022 OUTLOOKDear Clients,2021 was a remarkable year for US financial assets.US equities returned an eye-popping 28.7%,compared with a more modest 19.9%for other developed countries equities in local currency terms and a dismal 0.1%for those of emerging markets,again in local currency terms.Equities of the worlds second-largest economy,China,not only significantly underperformed US equities but also recorded the worst performance of any major equity market,with a total return of-21.2%in renminbi terms.In fixed income,US municipal bonds,with a 0.5%return,outperformed government debt in the US(-1.7%return),Eurozone(-1.4%return),UK(-3.0%return)and Japan(-0.1%return),as measured by one-to 10-year market indices in local currency terms.US high yield municipal bonds returned 7.8%.Among other high yield fixed income asset classes,US high yield corporate bonds returned 5.3%,compared with 4.2%for the Eurozone,-8.8%for emerging market local debt and-1.8%for emerging market dollar debt.Again,Chinese high yield corporate debt not only significantly underperformed that of the US but was one of the worst-performing markets,with a return of-26.3%.On the currency side,the Dollar Index(DXY)appreciated by 6.4%relative to developed countries currencies.The Dollar Trade-Weighted Index(TWI),which measures the dollar against the currencies of the key US trading partners,appreciated 4.8%.The dollar also appreciated relative to gold by 3.6%.Such strong 2021 performance came in the wake of an already extended bull market in US equities.Since the trough of the global financial crisis(GFC)in March 2009,US equities have returned 812%,while other developed countries equities have returned 297%and emerging markets have returned 296%.As many of our clients know,we in the Investment Strategy Group have been strong proponents of US Preeminence and Staying Invested for the nearly 13 years that we have been writing these yearly Outlook reports.We have consistently 2Goldman Sachsjanuary 2022recommended clients stay invested in equities and strategically allocate a greater portion of their equity portfolios to US stocks,with the higher allocation funded by a lower allocation to non-US developed and emerging market countries.We have not once recommended clients underweight US equities.Frankly,the magnitude of the returns and the outperformance of US equities relative to non-US equities have far exceeded our expectations.Inevitably,such outsized returns in US financial assets have prompted clients,and even colleagues,to ask,as they regularly have over the last several years,whether we are finally at a tipping point where the stay invested recommendation has reached the end of its shelf life and the time has arrived to underweight US equities.They have cited a litany of concerns,including high equity valuations,a shift in the US Federal Reserve toward tightening of monetary policy,risks of higher inflation,rising geopolitical risks with Russia and China,a virulent strain of domestic politics in the US(which some posit is an existential threat to US democracy),and,importantly,the incertitude about the impact of known and new mutations of SARS-CoV-2,including the highly contagious Omicron variant.Notwithstanding,we believe that the two investment themes of US Preeminence and Staying Invested remain valid.US Preeminence2021 showed the resilience of the US economy,and of its households and businesses,with a strong recovery in growth,employment and profitability.The factors that account for US preeminence are intact:Higher labor productivity Higher quality of corporate management 3OutlookInvestment Strategy Group Greater earnings per share growth Higher research and development budgets Greater innovation More favorable demographicsIn the interest of brevity,we will not repeat the detailed analysis underlying our view,which was provided in our 2021 Outlook,US Resilient.We will be providing an in-depth analysis of these factors in our next Insight,which will be an update of our 2016 Insight on China,Walled In:Chinas Great Dilemma.We believe that during the last six years,China has become even more walled in than it was in early 2016,and we will examine the consequences for our investment outlook.Staying Invested Our tactical asset allocation recommendation to stay invested is also unchanged.Since the trough of the GFC,we have recommended staying invested on 106 separate occasionsthis report represents the 107th!Exhibit 1 highlights all past 106 occasions.Some recommendations were made during market downdrafts when our clients,fearing much steeper declines,were tempted to exit the equity market.Others were made after strong market rallies when high valuations and economic and geopolitical risks prompted clients to consider locking in their gains and exiting the equity market.We are currently in one of those latter environments.We have had three consecutive years of double-digit returns:last years 29%return followed an InsightWe believe Chinas debt burden,the inevitable rebalancing of the economy,unfavorable demographics,structural fault lines and the weight of history will bear down on its growth rates.Investment Management DivisionInvestment Strategy Group|January 2016Walled In:Chinas Great Dilemma4Goldman Sachsjanuary 202218%return in 2020 and a 31%return in 2019,for an annualized return of 26%.These strong returns,and a nearly 13-year bull market,have led to a plethora of warnings of bubbles bursting and imminent corrections.We do not lightly dismiss such warnings.In fact,we have been addressing concerns about bubbles since our 2014 Outlook,Within Sight of the Summit,with a section titled“No Bubble Trouble Yet.”We are very cognizant of the fact that valuations are high and that late 2021 appears eerily similar to early 2000.Yet,after careful analysis,we continue to recommend clients remain invested.OutlookWe have had a great climb.Investment Management DivisionInvestment Strategy Group January 2014Within Sight of the SummitExhibit 1:S&P 500 Price Index and ISG Recommendations to Stay InvestedOver the post-GFC period,we have recommended staying invested in US equities 106 times.5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000Mentions of“Stay Invested in US Equities”S&P 500S&P 500 Price Index201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Data through December 31,2021.Source:Investment Strategy Group,Bloomberg.5OutlookInvestment Strategy Group This report provides the data and analysis underpinning our recommendation to stay invested.In Section I,we explain the investment rationale,focusing on valuations,the earnings outlook given the global economic backdrop,and the absence,in reality,of what some have termed froth or irrational exuberance in US equities based on financial market flows and portfolio positioning.Importantly,we will compare and contrast the current financial market backdrop to that of the dot-com bubble of late 1999 and early 2000 in order to address a frequently and not unreasonably asked question:are we at the precipice of another major downdraft such as the 49%peak-to-trough drop in equities between March 2000 and October 2002?We then turn to our one-and five-year expected returns and our more opportunistic tactical tilts.We conclude with the key risks to our US outlook,including the pandemic,inflation,tightening of monetary policy,recession and high-impact geopolitical flare-ups.In Section II,we provide a detailed review of our economic outlook for key developed and emerging market countries.In Section III,we provide our financial market outlook for the same.As we often remind our readers,we do not have the benefit of a wizards or seers orbuculum,and we always present our reports and recommendations with a strong dose of humility.We have gone back and counted 11 references to“humility”across our 13 Outlook reports,but the term is especially fitting as we enter the third year of a global pandemic that has exacted a terrible toll on so many and continues to surprise us.We take this opportunity to wish you a healthy,unrestricted and,yes,prosperous 2022.With our warm regards,The Investment Strategy Group6Goldman Sachsjanuary 2022Contents SECTION I8 Staying Invested We continue to recommend clients stay invested with an overweight to US assets.9 Summary of the Economic Backdrop9 Short-and Intermediate-Term Drivers 9 Current Valuations 11 Current Valuations in Context 13 Current Valuations Not at 2000 Levels 14 Market Concentration 16 No Mean Reversion in Equity Valuations 17 Irrational Exuberance20 Long-Term Strategic Insights:The High Hurdle for Underweighting US Equities 21 The Upward Trend 22 Early Exit 22 Scenario Analyses of Overweighting and Underweighting Equities 23 High Hurdle Rate Due to Capital Gains Tax Burden for Taxpayers 24 Advisory Alert25 One-and Five-Year Expected Total Returns 29 Our Tactical Tilts 36 Risks to Our 2022 Outlook 36 COVID-19 Pandemic 39 Risk of Persistently Higher Inflation 43 Risk of Recession 45 Geopolitical Risks 47“Techlash”48 Cyberattacks 49 Terrorism50 Key Takeaways Investors face a longer litany of risks,but we expect a favorable economic backdrop to support mid-single-digit portfolio returns this year.2022 OUTLOOK7OutlookInvestment Strategy Group SECTION II:THE FAST LANE52 2022 Global Economic Outlook Although we expect economic growth to downshift from last year,it should maintain cruising speed.54 United States60 Eurozone61 United Kingdom62 Japan63 Emerging Markets SECTION III:GOING THE DISTANCE68 2022 Financial Markets Outlook With low likelihood of major stumbling blocks this year,we think stocks run will continue.70 US Equities72 Non-US Developed Market Equities74 Eurozone Equities74 UK Equities75 Japanese Equities76 Emerging Market Equities76 Global Currencies81 Emerging Market Currencies82 Global Fixed Income92 Global Commodities8Goldman Sachsjanuary 2022Staying Investedthe drivers of our investment recommendations fall into two categories.The first category consists of short-and intermediate-term metrics.Examples are current market valuations,market valuations of past peaks and troughs,corporate earnings over the next two years based on our expectations about economic growth and fiscal and monetary policy measures,and investment sentiment and impact on flow of funds into or out of equities.The second category consists of long-term strategic investment insights that have led us to set a high hurdle for underweighting equities.Examples of these insights include the risk of underweighting equities too early,the benefit of strategies that overweight equities relative to strategies that both SECTION I9OutlookInvestment Strategy Groupoverweight and underweight equities,and the decline in equity prices required to offset the tax payments on realized capital gains following sales by taxpaying clients.Our recommendation to stay invested has been underpinned by both sets of drivers since March 2009,and they continue to point in the same direction today.In our base case scenario,to which we assign a 65%probability,we expect a 6.3%total return for the S&P 500 this year.We also assign a 20%probability to a good case scenario with a return of 12.6%,and a 15%probability to a bad case scenario with a return of-18.9%.Details of our equity market outlook are presented in Section III.We begin with the short-and intermediate-term metrics that drive our recommendation to stay invested.But first we present a summary of the favorable US and global economic backdrop against which we have formulated our recommendation(details are presented in Section II).Summary of the Economic Backdrop We expect global growth to be well above trend in 2022 at 4.5%,and slightly above trend in 2023 at 3.3%.In the US,we expect 3.9%growth in 2022 and over 2%in 2023.In our base case scenario,US unemployment will steadily decline to 3.1%by the end of 2022,supply shortages for most goods will abate over the course of the year and inflation as measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures(PCE)price index will reach 2.8%by year-end(comparing the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2021).We believe the risk of a recession in 2022 is low,at about 10%.The Federal Reserve will begin to tighten monetary policy as it has already signaled.Its asset purchases will end in early 2022 and we expect at least three 25-basis-point hikes in the federal funds rate.If faster growth or higher inflation merits additional interest rate hikes,rates will be raised further.In the event of a global disruption,including a resurgent pandemic,rates could be raised at a slower pace or not at all.We should note that the confidence interval around our forecasts is wider than usual.As Jason Furman,former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors and professor at Harvard University,noted on a recent Investment Strategy Group client call,“substantial humility is in order”in this environment.1 Of course,this is not the first nor will it be the last time humility is called for.We have gone back and counted 11 references to“humility”across our 13 Outlooks.Short-and Intermediate-Term Drivers Current ValuationsThree consecutive years of outsized returns since 2019,and a nearly 13-year bull market,have prompted many market participants to warn of bubbles and frothy markets,even irrational exuberance.There is no doubt that current valuations are high.As shown in Exhibit 2,the S&P 500 is in the 10th decile of valuations in the post-World War II period.Equities have been cheaper at least 90%of the time.We use five metricsfour of which are based on intermediate-term data and one of which is based on earnings over the prior four quartersto determine the valuation deciles.These metrics are:Price-to-trend reported earnings Price-to-