SIPRI-非洲之角地区的外国军事存在（地缘政治）（英文）-2019.4-32页.pdf

SUMMARYw The Horn of Africa is undergoing far-reaching changes in its external security environment.A wide variety of international security actorsfrom Europe,the United States,the Middle East,the Gulf,and Asiaare currently operating in the region.As a result,the Horn of Africa has experienced a proliferation of foreign military bases and a build-up of naval forces.The external militarization of the Horn poses major questions for the future security and stability of the region.This SIPRI Background Paper is the first of three papers devoted to the new external security politics of the Horn of Africa.The paper maps the growth of foreign military forces in and around the Horn over the past two decades.The other two papers in this series are The new external security politics of the Horn of Africa region(SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security,April 2019)and Managing the new external security politics of the Horn of Africa region(SIPRI Policy Brief,April 2019).THE FOREIGN MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA REGIONneil melvin*April 2019SIPRI Background PaperI.IntroductionThe Horn of Africa region has experienced a substantial increase in the number and size of foreign military deployments since 2001,especially in the past decade(see annexes 1 and 2 for an overview).1 A wide range of regional and international security actors are currently operating in the Horn and the foreign military installations include land-based facilities(e.g.bases,ports,airstrips,training camps,semi-permanent facilities and logistics hubs)and naval forces on permanent or regular deployment.2 The most visible aspect of this presence is the proliferation of military facilities in littoral areas along the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.3 However,there has also been a build-up of naval forces,notably around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait,at the entrance to the Red Sea and in the Gulf of Aden.This SIPRI Background Paper maps the foreign military presence in the Horn of Africa in the period since 2001,when it began to build up after a period of post-cold war decline and was initially focused on counterterrorism following the terrorist attacks on the United States of 11September 2001.First and foremost,the paper considers national missions to the Horn,then it briefly considers the multilateral missions that are also primarily made up of forces from countries outside the region.Throughout,the paper notes the growing importance of geopolitical,commercial and military competition in current deployments of foreign military forces to the region(see figure 1 for the geographical distribution and annexes 13 for summaries of the foreign military bases,naval deployments and international missions).1 Geographically,the Horn of Africa is normally understood to comprise Djibouti,Eritrea,Ethiopia and Somalia.As foreign military forces operate in ways that link deployments on land,in the air and at sea,for the purposes of this paper the Horn of Africa region is defined as a security space comprised of the four core countries plus Kenya,the Seychelles,South Sudan and Sudan,as well as key adjacent maritime areasthe southern Red Sea,the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.Foreign forces that are deployed beyond the Horn but work closely with external military forces in it are noted in the text but are not included in the annexes.The majority of these extra-regional forces are located in Africa(Sahel),the Gulf and the Indian Ocean.2 Harkavy,R.H.,SIPRI,Bases Abroad:The Global Foreign Military Presence(Oxford University Press:Oxford,1989),pp.78.3 Brewster,D.,Base race in the Horn of Africa,The Interpreter,Lowy Institute,7 Feb.2018.*The author would like to thank the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs for the funding support that made the research presented in this paper possible.2 sipri background paper0500 kmEUNAVFORSomali coast China,Iran,RussiaAnti-piracy operationsGulf of AdenIndiaOff the coast of Oman Off the coast of SomaliaOff the coast of the SeychellesFrance MayotteRunionEgyptSaudi ArabiaGulf of AdenGulf of Oman Indian OceanRed Sea CTF 150CTF 152Arabian GulfCTF 151Bab elMandebGulf of Aden Southern Red SeaSuakin(Turkey)Port Sudan(Russia)Berbera(UAE)Boosaaso(UAE)Baledogle(USA)Baidoa(UK)Mogadishu(EUTM-S,Turkey)Assab(UAE)Nanyuki(UK)Manda Bay(USA)RussiaIsraelMilitary naval presence Foreign military facilities,under constructionForeign military facilities,possibleForeign military facilities,operational UKUSASaudi ArabiaUSAChinaJapanGermanyFrance(air base,coast)France(air base,interior)France(naval base)ItalySpainUKUSAUSAFranceUSATurkeyUKUSASeychelles(USA)Socotra Island,Yemen(Saudi Arabia,UAE)ETHIOPIAERITREADJIBOUTIYEMENOMANUAEQATARBAHRAINIRANKUWAITSOMALIAKENYAUGANDASOUTHSUDANSUDANEGYPTSAUDIARABIAGulf of AdenRed SeaBab elMandebThe GulfFigure 1.Distribution of foreign military forces in the Horn of Africa regionCTF=Combined task forceCredit:Ahlenius,H.,Nordpil,2018.foreign military presence in the horn of africa region 3II.Foreign military forces in the Horn of Africa regionChinaAlthough China has built its commercial relations with African countries over many decades,its first major security step in relation to them came in 2008 when it launched an anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden.China has since maintained a continuous naval anti-piracy presence in the Horn of Africa region,dispatching its 32nd mission to the Gulf of Aden in April 2019.4 During 200818,the Chinese Navy deployed 26000 personnel to the region and undertook a variety of maritime security operations.5 In order to support the naval missions,the Peoples Liberation Army Navy(PLAN)has conducted resupply and refuelling operations in the region.As a result,during 200913 the PLAN deployment to the Gulf of Aden came to rely on logistics support from the port of Djibouti.The importance of dedicated regional logistics was highlighted for China in 2011,when its military and civilian air and maritime assets evacuated about 35000 Chinese nationals from Libya.Djibouti played an even more important role in the protection of Chinas citizens abroad in 2015,when the PLAN evacuated around 800 Chinese and other foreign nationals from Yemen,taking them by naval frigate to Djibouti to board flights home.6 In recent years,China has also deployed peacekeepers to Africamostly to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan(UNMISS),where it maintains about 1000 Chinese troops,but also to missions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo,Liberia,Mali and Sudan.In August 2017,China established a PLAN base in Djibouti.The facility is officially termed a logistics support base and justified as supporting Chinas commitments to international anti-piracy,peacekeeping and other operations,as well as protecting its growing overseas assets and evacuating Chinese citizens in crisis situations.It has also been called a strategic strong point by Chinese policymakers and experts,denoting a forward presence designed to support the ability of the Chinese military for long-range force projection,including as part of a network of such strategic points.7Furthermore,the base enables China to conduct counterterrorism operations.In 2015,China passed a law that provides a domestic legal foundation for overseas counterterrorism and intelligence-gathering operations.This is notable given the number of foreign military facilities in Djibouti.8 In addition,the base is seen by the Chinese Government as a means for supporting Chinas economic interests in the Horn and conducting naval 4 Global Times,China sends new naval destroyer fleet to Somali waters for escort mission,4 Apr.2019.5 China Global Television Network,10 years of Chinas Gulf of Aden journey:a global player with more responsibility,27Dec.2018.6 BBC News,Yemen crisis:China evacuates citizens and foreigners from Aden,3 Apr.2015.7 Kennedy,C.,Strategic strong points and Chinese naval strategy,Jamestown China Brief,vol.19,no.6(Mar.2019).8 Downs,E.,Becker,J.and de Gategno,P.,Chinas military support facility in Djibouti:The economic and security dimensions of Chinas first overseas base,CNA,July 2017.During 200818,the Chinese Navy deployed 26000 personnel to the region and undertook a variety of maritime security operations4 sipri background paperdiplomacy.9 Djibouti also plays a key role in Chinas vision of a maritime sea route,which is a major part of its Belt and Road Initiative.10The creation of a military base has taken place in the context of a developing financial and commercial relationship between China,Djibouti and Ethiopia,as demonstrated by the construction of the EthiopiaDjibouti Railway,the EthiopiaDjibouti Water Pipeline and,most significantly,Chinese investment in the development of the Doraleh Multipurpose Port,phase one of which opened in May 2017.Chinas engagement in Djibouti and elsewhere in the region therefore serves both its commercial and its military interests.11Chinas military base is Djibouti is located immediately south-west of the Doraleh Multipurpose Port and the PLAN is reported to have exclusive access to a dedicated berth in that port.Combined,these options are believed to enable China to berth multiple ships in Djibouti,including all but the largest PLAN vessels.12 China is reported to have a 10-year lease on the bases 36-hectare site.13 The cost of the annual lease on these military facilities is reported to be$20million.14 It has barracks,a paved area and eight hangars for helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs),and naval facilities.15 Since the base opened,expansion has continued with the construction of a 450-metre pier that can accommodate naval flotillas,including large warships.16 China began to conduct live fire exercises soon after the base opened.17 It is estimated that the base has the capacity to accommodate several thousand troops.18 Satellite pictures of it while under construction revealed large underground facilities measuring approximately 23000 square metres.19 Currently,a marine company with armoured vehicles is reportedly stationed there.20 Since the base opened,there has been growing tension with the USA,which has accused Chinese base personnel of using lasers to blind US pilots.21 China has denied this accusation.22 There is also growing concern in the USA that it could have to 9 Fei,J.,Chinas overseas military base in Djibouti:Features,motivations,and policy implications,Jamestown China Brief,vol.17,no.17(Dec.2017).10 Li,W.,Why does China need a“support”base in Djibouti?,Modern Diplomacy,7 Aug.2017.11 Wang,M.,Chinas strategy in Djibouti:Mixing commercial and military interests,Council on Foreign Relations,13Apr.2018.12 Downs,Becker and de Gategno(note 8),pp.2526.13 Li(note 10).14 Allison,S.,Djiboutis greatest threat may come from within,Mail and Guardian,2 Mar.2018.15 Bhat,V.,Chinas mega fortress in Djibouti could be model for its bases in Pakistan,The Print,27Sep.2017.16 Chan,M.,China plans to build Djibouti facility to allow naval flotilla to dock at first overseas base,South China Morning Post,27 Sep.2017;and ImageSat International,Expansion of the pier and new observation post in Chinas overseas military base in Djibouti,15 Aug.2018.17 Chan,M.,Live-fire show of force by troops from Chinas first overseas military base,South China Morning Post,25Sep.2017.18 Zhou,L.,China sends troops to military base in Djibouti,widening reach across Indian Ocean,South China Morning Post,13 July 2017.19 Stratfor,Looking over Chinas latest great wall,26 July 2017;and Trevithick,J.,Chinas base in the Horn of African has a huge underground bunker,The Drive,27 July 2017.20 US Department of Defense,Assessment on US defense implication of Chinas expanding global access,Dec.2018,p.4.21 Sonne,P.,US accuses China of directing blinding lasers at American military aircraft in Djibouti,Washington Post,4May 2018.22 Ali,I.,China denies US accusation of lasers pointed at planes in Djibouti,Reuters,3 May 2018.Djibouti also plays a key role in Chinas vision of a maritime sea route,which is a major part of its Belt and Road Initiative foreign military presence in the horn of africa region 5leave its own Djibouti base as a result of China gaining control of the Doraleh port.23 In 2017,Japanese divers were reported to have approached a Chinese warship in Djibouti.24The announcement of the base aroused considerable international speculation about Chinas strategic and military aims.Senior US military officials have predicted that the Djibouti base will be the first in a network of Chinese military bases.25 The base is notably seen as part of an increasing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean through the construction of a network of military and commercial facilitiesthe so-called String of Pearlsin order to surround India.26 The PLAN is increasing its presence in the region through the deployment of submarines and its developing security partnership with Pakistan.27 The establishment of permanent military facilities in Djibouti is thus viewed as the creation of a strategic forward deployment capability,as part of a policy of promoting the gradual rise of Chinese sea power in the Indian Ocean.28EgyptEgypt has not established military bases in the Horn of Africa but is a leading Red Sea power by virtue of its control of the Suez Canal.In recent years,Egypt has sought to increase its military spending,including in order to project military force into the Horn region.29 In January 2017,Egypt inaugurated a new headquarters in Safaga for its southern naval fleet command,covering the Red Sea and including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait,which is considered a strategic interest.30 The southern fleet has recently been strengthened with the acquisition of modern warships,notably an amphibious assault ship.31 As part of the Saudi Arabian-coalition,Egypt has also been supporting military actions in the conflict in Yemen.This has primarily involved the deployment of ships to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as part of the naval blockade of Yemeni ports,notably to counter Iranian vessels.32 23 South China Morning Post,The US fears China could strangle its only permanent military base in Africaand a port in Djibouti could be the weapon,15 Dec.2018;and South China Morning Post,US senators voice alarm over growing Chinese presence at Djibouti port,14 Nov.2018.24 Lo,K.,Japanese frogmen approached Chinese warship at Djibouti,state media say,South China Morning Post,2 Aug.2017.25 Vandiver,J.,AFRICOM chief:expect more Chinese bases in Africa,Stars and Stripes,6 Mar.2018.26 MacLeod,C.,China adds to its string of pearls with new African military base,The Times,24 Aug.2016:27 Cooper,Z.,Security implications of Chinas military presence in the Indian Ocean,Center for Strategic and International Studies,4 Apr.2018.28 Henry,J.,Chinas Military Deployments in the Gulf of Aden:Anti-Piracy and Beyond,IFRI Policy Paper no.89,21Nov.2016,pp.1423.29 Megahid,A.,How regional challenges pushed Egypt to shift its military doctrine to“prevention”,The Arab Weekly,28Oct.2018;and Wuite,C.,The rationale for Egypts military spendi