J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-半导体行业-半导体与SPE：来自五个全球分析师的观点-2018.1.18-27页.pdf

Asia Pacific Equity Research18 January 2018 Semiconductor/SPE SectorsViews of Five J.P.Morgan Global AnalystsJapan Equity ResearchElectronics/Precision&IndustrialHisashi Moriyama AC(81-3)6736-Bloomberg JPMA MORIYAMA JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Harlan Sur(1-415)315-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCJJ Park(82-2)758-J.P.Morgan Securities(Far East)Limited,Seoul BranchGokul Hariharan(852)2800-J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)LimitedSandeep Deshpande(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcMasashi Itaya(81-3)6736 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Narci Chang(886-2)2725-J.P.Morgan Securities(Taiwan)Limited/J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)LimitedJay Kwon(82-2)758-J.P.Morgan Securities(Far East)Limited,Seoul BranchSee page 24 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment The following pages present the initial 2018 opinions of five J.P.Morgan analysts covering semiconductor and related stocks.Overall,while they expect semiconductor market growth to slow in 2018,their long-term view(5-10 years out)is for the market to expand via the creation of new markets such as AI/deep learning and autonomous driving.They see growth expectations converging on companies biased to structural market growth factors.!Global semiconductor market value forecasts for 2018:Our scenario analysis yields a bear-case forecast of 4.0%growth for 2018,markedly slower than 2017s estimated+20.7%(Figure 2).It is based on a forecast for MOS memory growth of 0.9%,compared with+65.3%in the previous year.Our base-case forecast for logic is firm 7.0%growth in 2018,compared with estimated 9.3%growth in 2017.Reflecting our forecast of growth for power ICs and sensors,we expect 4.4%growth for other semiconductor products,trending similar to 2017s estimated 6.8%growth.!Bottom-up capital investment forecasts:Aggregating individual semiconductor companies capital investment(Figure 4)shows forecast total growth for CY2018 almost flat at 0.7%YoY.We forecast NAND and related capital spending,mainly at Samsung Electronics,to dip 16.5%YoY after peaking in 2017.We estimate capital spending growth at 11.1%for foundries and 14.1%for DRAM,and see foundry and related investment likely expanding toward 2H 2018 on potential benefits from growing demand for processors for AI/deep learning.!The initial 2018 opinions of five J.P.Morgan analysts covering semiconductor and related stocks are given on the following pages.Their top sector recommendations are:Harlan Sur-KLA-Tencor(KLAC)JJ Park-Samsung Electronics(005930 KS)Gokul Hariharan-Mediatek(2454 TT),TSMC(2330.TT)Sandeep Deshpande-ASML(ASML NA),STMicroelectronics(STM FP)Masashi Itaya:Rohm(6963 JT),Renesas Electronics(6723 JT)Hisashi Moriyama:Hitachi High-Technologies(8036 JT),Ulvac(6728 JT),Advantest(6857 JT).Completed 18 Jan 2018 05:36 PM JSTDisseminated 18 Jan 2018 05:38 PM JST2Asia Pacific Equity Research18 January 2018JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Hisashi Moriyama(81-3)6736- JJ Park-Memory AsiaAfter extended gains,consecutive price hikes and an overall robust performance in the last year,we expect a moderate memory market growth in 2018.While the DRAM market is expected to register a flattish growth,strong-demand drivers and rising SSD adoption would help fuel a moderate growth in NAND while recent NAND price trend could provide a downside risk to our current assumptions.For the set-makers,in early 2018 memory BOM continues to balloon out of proportion(20+%for mid-low end smartphones).Even though unit shipments are predicted to grow by single-digit%,major OEMs are likely to adopt a much slower pace of spec/content upgradation,unless requisite price corrections occur.This has also been visible in terms of a dwindling enterprise demand from data-centers as component price pressures hampered server content growth coupled with a slower migration Purley.In order to contain the negative impact on set-makers,regulatory agencies from China(NDRC)are coming to the fore to encourage memory makers for a relaxed price outlook.We forecast a stagnating CE demand for DRAM applications in the 1Q18 and a low-single digit%ASP appreciation given still tight supply for server DRAM.We recognize broad-based end-market demand drivers would support a low-20%demand growth in 2018.However as the DRAM capex gets realized in terms of mid-single digit%wafer growth in 2018,we expect supply growth(mid-20%)will over-compensate demand largely impacting 2H18 supply/demand dynamics.Hence,we will likely start seeing a gradual double-digit%correction in ASPs form the 2H18 onwards,as price corrections catalyze inventory de-stocking in the downturn cycle.This is predicted to translate to a single digit%correction for DRAM ASPs in 2018 from 50%Y/Y ASP increase in 2017.For NAND,improving yields for 3D NAND technology and an intensive-capex led capacity growth would help mitigate the long-prevailing impacts on supply-discipline as we forecast a staggering 40%+/-growth in bit-shipments for 2018.Asthe affordability gets restored,we feel that SSDs would become a preferred storage solution with adoption level rising to 50%+in enterprise and 20%+for client.However since major smartphone-makers already upgraded NAND content in 2017,we see any major content growth in this segment only from 2019 onwards.Gokul Hariharan Technology Semiconductor HK,TaiwanLogic SemisWe expect two key themes which are quite relevant in 2018.First is the rise of AI/Heterogeneous computing demand trend and its emergence as a key driver for Foundry growth in 7nm node.With the rise of AI and the trend towards heterogeneous computing especially from the large internet companies,the datacenter silicon market is undergoing radical change.What was an x86 dominated monolithic market is now becoming a lot more varied,with GPUs,FPGAs,ASIC solutions and ARM servers all seeing more traction,which is a favorable trend for Foundries such as TSMC.Investments in AI training and Inference are also still at the very early stage and should continue to rise rapidly in the next 5 years.After the saturation of smartphone growth,these datacenter related demand is fast emerging as the key driver for growth at leading edge semiconductors.We anticipate that 7nm node in Foundries would be 20-25%bigger than 28nm and could exceed market expectations.3Asia Pacific Equity Research18 January 2018JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Hisashi Moriyama(81-3)6736- Second key trend to watch is Mobile Silicon Consolidation Mobile Silicon today represents the semi vertical with the lowest margins 13%vs 25-50%of most other areas in semis.This is even when growth prospects are quite low and number of players has shrunk to just 3 players in merchant silicon.With M&A already on the horizon for this sector,we expect much better price discipline in this area leading to meaningful margin uptick.Mediatek is already pursuing this course with OPEX cuts and cost down strategies in its smartphone business.Lastly,the cyclical factors in logic semis are also turning around.After a long 5 quarter inventory destocking cycle,logic semis are slowly starting to see some restocking momentum in late 1Q18,which should pick up meaningfully in 2Q18.This favors Foundries and OSAT players.Sandeep Deshpande Semiconductor EuropeThere is a structural theme underlying semiconductor growth.Automotive,Industrial,Cloud and IoT markets have 5-year or longer structural growth which we expect will continue in 2018.After bumper 16&17 when semi stock returns topped 35%each year,return in 2018 is likely to be less strong than seen in the past 2 years,but in non-commodity exposed markets,we expect to see positive returns.Thus,the more a company is exposed to the structurally growing automotive,industrial,cloud or IoT markets,the stronger it should perform.At the FY17 results in Jan-18,companies will guide based on the reality they see at that point and we expect strong indications from companies across the board combined with strong capex guidance.That said,with the memory upturn entering the third calendar year,there is indeed some risk of price moderation.However,this moderation is more likely to be 2H18 loaded than 1H18.Semis ex memory ex microprocessor(MPU)inventory grew 2%QoQ in dollar terms,however,days of inventory(DOI)declined from 90 days exiting 2Q to 86 days exiting 3Q.Semis ex memory ex MPU DOI stood 3%above 3-yr sa,moderating from 7%above 3-yr sa witnessed exiting 2Q17.Thus,inventory remains a non-issue for the sector mainly due to strong demand.The cycle is indeed declining but the decline is due to mathematical reasons i.e.difficult comps rather than because of a real decline.If memory prices do not decline we would expect semis to grow by at least mid-single digit%in 18 due to growth in structural growth end markets.Semiconductor companies in Europe do not look cheap(as some were in previous years),and thus we believe critical to stock price performance is to invest in those companies which have continuing earnings upgrades.As in 2017,we believe stocks where the expectation of upgrades is least,but where the upgrades are seen,will see the best price performance.STMicro is our top large cap semis pick in 18,ams our mid cap semis pick.ASML&Infineon remain mid-term picks.We believe that despite stock price performance,market still remains skeptical that STMicro has truly turned around.We believe that the non-smartphone businesses of STMicro will grow due to the secular trends in the automotive and industrial markets while smartphone will grow due to new wins at Apple.The investor base is worried about Apple exposure due to the risk of STMicro losing Apples business.Given that STMicro has just won the exposure means that the risk of losing it is 2020 related rather than near term because STMicro has invested substantially in capacity for Apple meaning there would be some volume guarantees.STMicro with greatest potential for earnings upgrades in 2018 is our top pick in the space.Infineon will also likely out-perform in 2018 due to its high automotive exposure and high share in auto electrification.ASML is a key long term pick,but its performance in 2018 4Asia Pacific Equity Research18 January 2018JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Hisashi Moriyama(81-3)6736- depends on memory price performance.We believe memory pricing risks increase into 2H18 and 2018 capex will be up significantly.Thus,we expect ASML performance in 1H18 will be strong,but performance later in the year is more difficult to predict because it depends on memory pricing.In the mid cap space our top pick is ams,which in the space is the biggest beneficiary of 3D sensing initially at Apple and then in 2019 potentially in the Android camp as well.Harlan Sur US Semiconductors,Semiconductor Cap Equipment&Tech HardwareLooking into 2018,we see industry growth returning to more typical GDP plus levels and currently estimate Y/Y revenue growth of 3-5%in 2018.We continue to believe the semiconductor industry has entered a more stable and less cyclical growth phase characterized by mid-single-digit annual revenue growth rates.In a more stable,lower-growth environment,we believe the market will reward companies that demonstrate leadership in their target markets,driving continued operating/free cash margin expansion and increasing payout ratios.CES 2018 Tech Forum Highlights:Automotive suppliers expect further growth in CY18 driven by autonomous driving and ADAS applications.Similar to last year,semiconductor companies with significant automotive exposure(NVDA,MXIM,CY,ON,and MU)anticipate favorable growth trends driven by content growth in vehicles.In particular,autonomous driving and ADAS(including computing platforms,sensors,and instrument clusters)is an area of strong growth.NVIDIA and Intel continue forming key partnerships with car manufacturers and subsystem suppliers.Data center fundamentals appear solid in 2018 as AI/deep learning remains a clear focus.Although not typically directly associated with CES/consumer electronics,the datacenter end market was flagged as a solid growth driver for several companies(NVDA,MXIM,MRVL,and MU),driven by continued strength in cloud/hyperscale spending and content growth.NVIDIA has been an early leader in AI(training in particular)though we expect other companies such as INTC and MU to benefit from this rapidly growing market as well.Semicap fundamentals solid into 2018 and likely beyond and Applied Materials on track to drive double-digit revenue growth in each of its main segments in 2018.Applied Materials was incrementally more positive on its industry growth outlook for semiconductor equipment spending in 2018.In addition,display market fundamentals are likely to remain strong in 2018 and in both semi and display equipment,Applied Materials expects investments to remain at high levels over the next few years.Similar to our view on memory,Applied isnt seeing any signs of overinvestment by memory makers.For Applied Materials specifically,the company expects to deliver solid double digit revenue growth in each of its three main segments(semiconductor,display and service)in 2018.Hisashi Moriyama Semiconductor SPE JapanCollating our five global semiconductor analysts opinions suggests that while market growth will likely slow in 2018,the market looks set to expand in the long term(5-10 years out)as new markets are created.In the auto market,we expect requirements for improved autonomous driving performance to support steady growth not only for power chips but also for MCUs(memory control units)for ADAS(advanced driver assistance systems)and ECUs(electronic control units).As 5Asia Pacific Equity Research18 January 2018JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Hisashi Moriyama(81-3)6736- a result,our long-term view through 2030 sees auto-use products value-based share of the semiconductor market expanding from 12%in 2016 to roughly 30%,broadly on a par with the computer market.In the near term,we need to continue monitoring business trends at Apple and Chinese smartphone companies because chips for PCs and communications equipment(e.g.,smartphones)currently account for roughly 60%of semiconductor market value.At the same time,our forecast of continued 33.9%(Figure 15)capital investment growth for seven cloud service providers in 2018 easily tops our bottom-up base-case forecast of 0.7%growth(Figure 4)for SPE capital spending,indicating clearly that new types of user and semiconductor have started to exert a greater impact than to date as drivers of semiconductor demand.We forecast accelerating demand growth for high-speed,low-power semiconductors such as Nvidias(covering analyst:Harlan Sur)deep learning chip,and estimate demand for t