J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-公用事业行业-澳大利亚公用事业：2019年8月批发电力数据观察-2019.9.2-29页.pdfVIP免费

AsiaPacificEquityResearch02September2019AustralianUtilitiesWholesaleelectricitydatawatch-August2019AustraliaEnergy&UtilitiesMarkBusuttilAC(61-2)9003-8619mark.busuttil@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMABUSUTTILJimmyZeng(61-2)90036017jimmy.zeng@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimitedSeepage26foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.www.jpmorganmarkets.comSeptemberhasmarkedtheendofwinterandquestionsarenowemergingoverwhetherthesystemwillcopewithupcomingsummerpeakloads.AEMOhasindicatedalikelylossofload(particularlyinVictoria)betweenJanuaryandMarch2020.Meanwhile,baseloadforwardcontractscontinuetoriseandCAL20A$300capcontractsinbothVictoriaandSouthAustraliaarenowaboveA$17/MWh.AttheirfinancialresultsinAugust2019,AGLandOriginflaggedsignificantfallsinprofitabilityinthecurrentyear.However,webelievemarketdynamicscontinuetosuggestthatitwillbemorechallengingforTier-2andTier-3retailerstocompetegiventheirhighercostbases.Wholesalespotpricesremainelevated:AveragewholesalespotpricesacrossthefourNEMstatesincreasedtoA$83/MWhinAugust2019,12%aboveA$74/MWhinJune2019despiteslightlylowerdemand.Averagepriceswere2%abovethepriorcorrespondingperiod.Forwardprices(averageofA$94/MWhacrossthefourstates)remainelevatedandmorethan29%higherthanthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Whileforwardcontractsremaininbackwardation,thefrontendofthecurvecontinuestorise.Wenotethatthebackendofthecurveissomewhatilliquidandtheshapemaynotbeindicativeofthedirectionofprices.NonewcapacityaddedinAugust2019:TherewerenonewwindorsolarfarmsofferingcapacitytotheNEMinAugust2019.Newcapacityhasamountedtocloseto2GWin2019,2%higherthanthepriorcorrespondingperiod.RECpricescontinuetotrendhigher,nowatA$45/cert.comparedtoA$30/cert.i...