J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-公用事业行业-澳大利亚公用事业：2019年8月批发电力数据观察-2019.9.2-29页.pdf

Asia Pacific Equity Research02 September 2019 Australian UtilitiesWholesale electricity datawatch-August 2019AustraliaEnergy&UtilitiesMark Busuttil AC(61-2)9003-Bloomberg JPMA BUSUTTIL Jimmy Zeng(61-2)9003 J.P.Morgan Securities Australia LimitedSee page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment September has marked the end of winter and questions are now emerging over whether the system will cope with upcoming summer peak loads.AEMO has indicated a likely loss of load(particularly in Victoria)between January and March 2020.Meanwhile,baseload forward contracts continue to rise and CAL20 A$300 cap contracts in both Victoria and South Australia are now above A$17/MWh.At their financial results in August 2019,AGL and Origin flagged significant falls in profitability in the current year.However,we believe market dynamics continue to suggest that it will be more challenging for Tier-2 and Tier-3 retailers to compete given their higher cost bases.Wholesale spot prices remain elevated:Average wholesale spot prices across the four NEM states increased to A$83/MWh in August 2019,12%above A$74/MWh in June 2019 despite slightly lower demand.Average prices were 2%above the prior corresponding period.Forward prices(average of A$94/MWh across the four states)remain elevated and more than 29%higher than the prior corresponding period.While forward contracts remain in backwardation,the front end of the curve continues to rise.We note that the back end of the curve is somewhat illiquid and theshape may not be indicative of the direction of prices.No new capacity added in August 2019:There were no new wind or solar farms offering capacity to the NEM in August 2019.New capacity has amounted to close to 2GW in 2019,2%higher than the prior corresponding period.REC prices continue to trend higher,now at A$45/pared to A$30/cert.in March 2019.Nonetheless,the curve remains in backwardation with CAL20 forward REC prices at A$26/cert.and CAL21 at A$13/cert.Growing concerns over system adequacy:There were a number of news articles(refer to page 2)indicating growing concern over system adequacy through the summer months.As shown in the chart below,AEMOs MTPASA test is showing 100%change of loss-of-load during P10 weather events in the summer months in Victoria and South Australia.AEMO has expanded the RERT panel in order to provide demand side response.Figure 1:Chart of the month:Medium-Term Performance and System Adequacy Test for VIC(LHS)and SA(RHS)units in MWSource:AEMO05,00010,00015,000LowMediumHighLoss of load probability0%50%100%Sep-19Dec-19Mar-2001,0002,0003,0004,0000%50%100%Sep-19Dec-19Mar-202Asia Pacific Equity Research02 September 2019Mark Busuttil(61-2)9003- Major news items in the last monthAEMO ups emergency power reserves for summer:The AFR reported on the 9thof August 2019 that AEMO will offer to pay for emergency back-up energy supplies across five states to protect the electricity grid from potential black-outs this summer.As federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor moves to secure base-load power in NSW following the proposed closure of AGL Energys Liddell coal-fired power plant,AEMO has announced it will expand its Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader panel for the 2019-20 summer.AGL calls for flexibility in Vics emissions reduction pathway:According to the AFR on the 12thof August 2019,AGL has advised the Victorian government that emissions reductions trajectories towards the states net zero target by 2050 need to be flexible and broadly neutral across industry sectors to avoid unnecessary costs.The electricity and gas supplier,which owns one of the states biggest coal generators,at Loy Yang A,also cautioned that emissions reduction efforts within Victorias electricity sector need to be carefully co-ordinated with the national energy market.Victoria sweats on high cost of summer power:The AFR reported on the 14thof August 2019 that wholesale electricity prices during next summers peak are pressing higher in the tight Victorian market,keeping both generators and consumers on full alert as the market operator takes steps to put in place emergency reserve supplies.AGL and Origin are battling to repair their respective coal and gas power units that are due back online before the summer heat hits.Origin Energy hit with$80,000 fine after cutting power from 54 homes:According to the Age on the 16thof August 2019,Australias energy watchdog has slapped Origin Energy with a fine and ordered it to review its internal processes after the company was found to have unlawfully disconnected power from more than 50 homes.The Australian Energy Regular(AER)announced on Friday that Origin had been ordered to pay$80,000 and hire an independent auditor to examine its training and processes.Tanna issues fresh warning on risks to coal power:The AFR reported on the 21stof August 2019 that EnergyAustralia chief executive Catherine Tanna has insisted that Victorias renewable energy and emission reductions targets could force an early closure of the companys Yallourn brown-coal generator in the Latrobe Valley,disputing the assertions of state energy minister Lily DAmbrosio.Ms DAmbrosio said earlier this month that the low cost of brown-coal generation meant the government expected all the states generators to run to their rated lifespan,despite Victorias targets for 50%renewable energy use and up to 60%emissions reductions by 2030.NSW,Victoria warned of summer blackout risk if power supply doesnt improve:According to the ABC on the 22ndof August 2019,more than a million Victorian households are at risk of being without power this summer during extreme heat if coal and gas plants are not returned to service in time for peak periods,the energy market operator has warned.The forecast also predicts up to 770,000 NSW homes will face a blackout risk on a day of extreme heat once the Liddell power plant has closed in 2023-24 if contingencies are not made.Minister seeks Vic fix to avoid blackouts:The Associated Press reported on the 22ndof August 2019 that Victoria must come to the table and help prevent widespread blackouts on extremely hot days this summer,the federal energy s3Asia Pacific Equity Research02 September 2019Mark Busuttil(61-2)9003- minister has declared.More than one million Victorian households could be left without power if an early heatwave hits the state,AEMO has warned.Energy users slam Band-Aid on top of a Band-Aid:According to the AFR on the 22ndof August 2019,the use of emergency energy reserves every summer will be passed onto companies in the form of higher energy costs and potentially force more companies to the wall,big energy users have warned.As the market operator deals with instability in the National Electricity Market from planned maintenance of older power plants and the unreliability of renewable energy,Energy Users Association of Australia chief executive Andrew Richards said predictions of large-scale blackouts this summer was not good enough.Summer of reckoning for Australias power grid:The AFR reported on the 23rdof August 2019 that the latest update from AEMO on the prospects of the energy grid surviving a long,hot summer does not make pretty reading for those worried about large-scale power failures.After a decade of inaction and bickering between the Commonwealth and the states over national energy policy,the chickens are finally coming home to roost for the 2019-2020 summer.Business leaders sound alarm over looming energy threats:According to the Age on the 23rdof August 2019,the threat of blackouts in Victoria has sparked alarm from some of the nations biggest businesses with Coca Cola Amatil boss Alison Watkins comparing the situation to challenges it usually faced in developing countries.AEMO warned on Thursday more than a million Victorian households could face blackouts this summer if power plant repairs at key facilities ran behind schedule without replacement supplies being secured.Pelican Point Power Station taken to court over 2017 South Australian heatwave blackouts:The ABC reported on the 27thof August 2019 that the Australian Energy Regulator has launched legal action against the operator of a gas power plant in Adelaide,alleging it failed to notify authorities it had spare generator capacity which could have helped South Australia avoid widespread blackouts in 2017.The Federal Court proceedings come just weeks after the AER launched similar legal action against the operators of South Australian wind farms over the events leading to a separate statewide blackout in 2016.Energy regulator targets SA power plant:According to the Associated Press on the 27thof August 2019,the AER has launched Federal Court action against a power station operator in Adelaide over its conduct ahead of the 2017 blackout which cut electricity to about 90,000 properties.The regulator alleges the operators of the Pelican Point gas-fired plant failed to notify AEMO of its generating capacity at a time when SA was experiencing heatwave conditions,high customer demand and reduced power availability.Back-up power stations to prevent SA blackouts privatised but will contribute more to grid:The ABC reported on the 28thof August 2019 that the South Australian Liberal Government will proceed with plans to privatise the operation of two emergency power stations built by its Labor predecessor.The Government has signed two 25-year lease agreements with Nexif and Infigen Energy to operate nine generating units currently located at Elizabeth in Adelaides north,and Lonsdale in the citys south.Plan to boost power of energy consumers:According to the Associated Press on the 29thof August 2019,households and businesses could save thousands of dollars a year off their power bills under a plan to give consumers greater ability to compare and switch energy providers.From February 2020,for the first time consumers will have greater access to information that banks hold on them and will be able to use it to shop around and get a better deal.4Asia Pacific Equity Research02 September 2019Mark Busuttil(61-2)9003- New South WalesWholesale spot pricesBase spot pricesWholesale spot prices trended higher from the prior month despite mild weather and greater inflow from adjoining states.However,prices in NSW are 10%below the same period last year.Table 2:Average spot price in NSW A$/MWhAveragem/my/yMar-1988-1%32%Apr-1978-11%4%May-19791%2%Jun-199115%-9%Jul-1972-22%-5%Aug-198417%-10%Sep-19 to date66-21%-29%Source:Bloomberg,AEMOFigure 3:Average spot price in NSW A$/MWh daily average and 3-month trailing averageSource:Bloomberg,AEMOPeak spot pricesSimilar to average daily prices,peak prices increased in the month as shown below.Table 4:Average peak spot price in NSW A$/MWhAveragem/my/yMar-19991%41%Apr-1986-13%1%May-19916%8%Jun-1910414%-22%Jul-1980-23%-4%Aug-199519%-6%Sep-19 to date18897%74%Source:Bloomberg,AEMOFigure 5:Peak spot price in NSW A$/MWh daily average and 3-month trailing averageSource:Bloomberg,AEMOPrice volatilityThere were 7 days in August 2019 with average prices in NSW above A$100/MWh compared to no days in the prior month.Figure 6:Number of days per month above A$100/MWh average base priceSource:Bloomberg,AEMO,J.P.Morgan0204060801001201401601802002008201020122014201620180501001502002502008201020122014201620180510152025200820102012201420162018s5Asia Pacific Equity Research02 September 2019Mark Busuttil(61-2)9003- New South WalesWholesale derivative pricesForward contractsBase-load strip forwards(active contracts)in NSW averaged A$87/MWh in August 2019 down 0%from A$87/MWh in July 2019.Forwards are now 1%higher at A$88/MWh.Figure 7:Active strip forward contracts A$/MWhSource:Bloomberg,AEMOForward curvesCAL20 contracts are currently A$85/MWh up from A$83/MWh in the prior month.CAL21 contracts are currently A$75/MWh up from A$73/MWh in the prior month.Figure 8:Forward curve A$/MWhSource:Bloomberg,AEMOCap ContractsPrices for A$300 cap contracts are currently A$4.13/MWh(CY2019),A$8.22/MWh(CY2020)and A$4.85/MWh(CY2021).Figure 9:A$300 Cap Contracts A$/MWhSource:Bloomberg,AEMO0102030405060708090100Apr-15Apr-16Apr-17Apr-18Apr-19020406080100120Sep-19Sep-20Sep-21Sep-2202468101214Jan-16Oct-16Jul-17Apr-18Jan-192021202020196Asia Pacific Equity Research02 September 2019Mark Busuttil(61-2)9003- New South WalesGrid demandNEM demandElectricity demand in August 2019 was up 0.2%from the prior corresponding period with weather conditions usual for the time of year.Demand for the half ending August 2019 was 0.8%below the prior corresponding period.Table 10:NEM Electricity Demand MWNSWNEMMonthly Average8,40222,087vs prior corresponding period0.2%-0.6%Quarterly Average8,52822,457vs prior corresponding period-0.9%-1.2%Half Average8,10821,771vs prior corresponding period-0.8%-0.8%Rolling Annual Average8,01521,570vs prior corresponding period0.1%-0.6%Source:J.P.Morgan estimates,AEMOFigure 11:Electricity demand rolling 12 month changeSource:J.P.Morgan estimates,AEMOCooling degree daysThe month of August 2019 saw hotter than usual conditions in Sydney.The average maximum of 19.5C was 0.3C above 19.2C in August 2018 and 0.0C above the 20-year average.The average minimum of 9.4C was 0.1C below 9.5C in August 2018 and 0.3C below the 20-year average.There was 1 cooling degree days in August 2019 versus the 5-year average of 1.Figure 12:Cumulative cooling degree days for SydneySource:Bureau of Meteorology,J.P.MorganHeating degree daysThere were 115 heating degree days in August 2019 versus the 5-year average of 114.Figure 13:Cumulative heating degree days for SydneySource:Bureau of Meteorology,J.P.Morgan-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%-2.0%4.0%Jul-12Jul-13Jul-14Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-19NSWNEM020040060080010001200JulAug Sep Oct Nov Dec JanFeb MarApr May JunFY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY200100200300400500600JulAug SepOctNov Dec JanFeb MarAprMay JunFY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20s7Asia Pacific Equity Research02 September 2019Mark Busuttil(61-2)9003- New South WalesGenerationGeneration82%of power generation in New South Wales in August 2019 was from black-coal generators,versus 85%in the prior month.Hydro contributed 5%with gas-fired plants providing 5%of generation requirements in the month.The average load-factor for wind generators was 47%in the month versus 48%in July 2019.There were outages at Bayswater#4,Liddell#4 and Mt Piper#2 during the month.Generally there was more capacity available than the prior corresponding period.Figure 14:Electricity generation monthly since 2016 MWSource:J.P.Morgan estimates,AEMOFigure 15:Load factors for key generators in NSWSource:J.P.Morgan estimates,AEMOFigure 16:Electricity generation last month MWSource:J.P.Mo