埃森哲-2019年半导体行业科技愿景报告（英文）-2019.9-18页.pdf

Technology Vision 2019SemiconductorTHE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY2 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYNew technologies impact industries across the board.But in the semiconductor industry,the very technologies disrupting the way companies operate are the same technologies they will use to create new products and businesses.Now is the time for semiconductor companies to take a strong position and proactively define the next generation of technologyin a dual role,as customer and producer.2 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY3 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYFive trends shape the near future:TREND 1:DARQ POWERTREND 2:GET TO KNOW METREND 3:HUMAN+WORKERTREND 4:SECURE US TO SECURE METREND 5:MY MARKETSUnderstanding the DNA of DARQ Nine out of 10 semiconductor companies are experimenting with DARQ technologies already.DARQ technologies will not only change the semiconductor industry as they are applied by semiconductor companies,they will also drive business growth.Blockchain/Distributed ledger technology is centered on driving improvements to business operations,via data provenance and faster traceability as well as enablement of compute and artificial intelligence(AI)capabilities.AI and extended reality will require custom chips.And quantum computing will introduce an entirely new universe of compute engineering.Unlock unique consumers and opportunities As silicon technology becomes commoditized,semiconductor companies are looking for ways to differentiate.Offering silicon-as-a-service,participating in platforms,is one way to do that.As chips become more specific in nature for targeted applications,semiconductor companies want to own a connected asset capability,versus just a piece of hardware.To do that successfully,theyll have to know their customers inside and outpredicting and anticipating needs before they even occur.Change the workplace or hinder the workforce Even as the workforce evolves at a rapid pace,most semiconductor companies are optimized for the workforce of the past.Moving to a digital workplace requires a workforce with digital skills.Enterprises arent victims,theyre vectors Large semiconductor companies are working to embed security into their chips and their ecosystems,knowing they are a critical link to national security as well as that of private citizens.Meet consumers and organizations needs at the speed of nowCustom chips,chiplets and 5G are essential in a world of intensely customized and on-demand customer experiences.As nontraditional competitors change the semiconductor playing field,incumbents are in a race to remain relevant to their customer base.4 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYTREND 1DARQ POWERNew technologies are catalysts for change,offering extraordinary new business capabilities.Distributed ledger technology,artificial intelligence(AI),extended reality(XR)and quantum computing will be the next set of new technologies to spark a step change,letting businesses reimagine entire industries.DARQ technologies will not only change the semiconductor industry as they are applied,they will also drive business growth.Blockchain/Distributed ledger technology is centered on driving improvements to business operations,via data provenance and faster traceability as well as enablement of compute and AI capabilities.AI and extended reality will require custom chips.And quantum computing will introduce an entirely new universe of compute engineering.DARQ DEFINEDUnderstanding the DNA of DARQ Distributed Ledger Technology(DLT)Artificial Intelligence(AI)Extended Reality(XR)Quantum ComputingTrend 1:DARQ powerNine out of 10(87 percent)of semiconductor executives are experimenting with one or more DARQ technologies alreadyno surprise,given the semiconductor industry is high-tech.TRANSFORMATION FOR LEADERS BY 20225 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYTrend 1:DARQ powerDARQBusinesses have the capabilities to build immersive and intelligent worldsARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEREALITY(VIRTUAL,AUGMENTED,ASSISTED)QUANTUM COMPUTINGDISTRIBUTED LEDGER TECHNOLOGYAutomate business functionsScan and utilize unprecedented amounts of dataTraining opportunities in augmented environmentsTransform global cybersecurityLarge-scale collaboration and transaction among strangersSelf-executing smart contracts and operations/engineering managementImproved provenance and trusted dataSolve problems otherwise unsolvable todayDiscover new designs and address rising compute requirementsOn-demand and hands free informationMake the benefits of analytics more widely availableDAQRPerhaps more surprising is that 60 percent of semiconductor companies anticipate the combination of DARQ technologies will have transformational or extensive impact on their organization in a relatively short timeframeover the next three years.That impact will come in varied forms,as each technology moves the needle in its own way.DARQ technologies and some of the capabilities they enable6 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYTrend 1:DARQ powerof semiconductor companies anticipate DARQ technologies will transform their company over the next three years.60%A majority of companies are at least piloting each DARQ technology,but 63 percent say that AI will have the greatest impact on them over the next three years.Global chip market growth projections are astronomical,with a 45.4 percent compound annual growth rate(CAGR).1 AI will drive growth not only for traditional semiconductor companies,but also non-traditional competitors(like Alibaba and Amazon)moving into the sector.AI IN THE LEAD FOR MARKET TAKE-UPSemiconductor organizations stage of adoption for each of the following emerging technologies today55%73%77%55%of the semiconductor executives said that they were at least piloting distributed ledgers/blockchain today compared to 65%executives globally73%of semiconductor executives said that they were at least piloting extended reality today compared to 62%executives globally77%of semiconductor executives said that they were at least piloting AI today compared to 67%executives globallyMicron launched a first-of-its-kind effort to use AI technology to boost its fabrication operations.Result:AI was 25 percent faster to get to the yield target desired.It was 35 percent faster to get to the defect per million(DPM)levels desired than it was before.2OPERATING MODEL:THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE USING AI7 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYNvidia and OmniSci are collaborating to empower data scientists with GPUs,AI and analytics.Traditional CPU-based computers dont have the capacity to handle the massive data sets organizations now want to digest for insights.Nvidia and OmniSci worked with a cable operator,for instance,whose network generates a terabyte a day.3 The operators dataset was akin to a spreadsheet with 500 million rows,a dataset that would take eight days just to ingest for analysis with traditional CPUs.Then,each data query would take several hours to run.The partners installed a GPU-based system.Its parallel-processing reduced loading time to just four minutes,allowing for queries in real-time.Instead of data scientists having to wait over a week just for data to load,they now have an interactive system in less time than it takes to eat a mealand can use AI to full,speedy advantage.Established semiconductor companies can inject innovation quickly through a well-designed ecosystem.Partnering with startups can help them leap ahead on the innovation curve,saving time and money versus trying to build capabilities in-house.For example,Nanotronics is building automated microscopes that use AI and machine learning to analyze and find chip defects automatically.Manufacturers can analyze 100,000 chips within minutes.4 Semiconductor companies that can partner to connect their data sets across manufacturing and other functionsworking with innovative partners to do sowill leapfrog ahead.Not only because of increased speed,but more holistic insights they can use to better run their business.Micron plans to use deep learning techniques for geometric and photometric recognition to identify defects on silicon wafers early in the manufacturing process.AI FOR SPEEDECOSYSTEMS FOR DARQ COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGETrend 1:DARQ powerWith AI,Micron is shifting fab management from chip facilities to remote control centers,reducing the need for field personnel.8 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYTREND 2GET TO KNOW METechnology-driven interactions are creating an expanding technology identitydigital demographicsfor every consumer.Trend 2:Get to know meUnlock unique consumers and opportunities This living foundation of knowledge will be key to not only understanding the next generation of consumers,but also to delivering rich,individualized,experience-based relationships in the post-digital age.Digital demographics are important in every industry,but particularly so in the semiconductor industry.Customers now have a“real-world”demographic,but also a digital demographicwho they are in the digital world based on what they do there.In the past,semiconductor companies might design one type of chip that worked for millions of users,but now market needs are fragmenting.A chip designed for a specific Internet of Things(IoT)use,like a self-driving car,is completely different than a chip designed for a user who wants to mine Bitcoin.As silicon technology becomes commoditizedtreated as hardwaresemiconductor companies are looking for ways to differentiate.Offering silicon-as-a-service,participating in platforms,is one way to do that.As chips become more specific in nature for targeted applications,semiconductor companies want to own a connected asset capability,versus just a piece of hardware.9 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYTo do that successfully,theyll have to know their customers inside and outpredicting and anticipating needs before they even occur.94%of semiconductor IT and business executives believe that digital demographics give their organization a new way to identify market opportunities for unmet customer needs vs 83%of global executives81%of semiconductor executives report that customer digital demographics is expanding the number of ways they deliver products and services either significantly or extensively vs 75%of global executives71%of semiconductor executives expect the amount of data their organization manages about customers digital demographics to increase exponentially or significantly over the next two years vs 78%of global executives94%81%71%Trend 2:Get to know me10 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYTREND 3HUMAN+WORKERWorkforces are becoming human+:each individual worker is empowered by their skillsets and knowledge plus a new,constantly growing set of capabilities made possible through technology.Now,companies must adapt the technology strategies that successfully created this next-generation workforce to support a new way of working in the post-digital age.Change the workplace or hinder the workforceWhile semiconductor companies produce an incredibly innovative product,most5 do not offer a cutting-edge,innovative employee experience.Many will admit they act more like product companies than modern technology companies.HARDWARE VERSUS DIGITAL MENTALITY Trend 3:Human+workerSamsung aims to have 1,000 AI developers working in five countries by 2020.To drive efforts,the company appointed ex-Google AI developer David Eun as its first chief innovation officer.The new CIOs role is to cultivate new businesses of the future on themes like AI and the fourth industrial revolution,digital.The company is searching for talent outside of the corporate realm also,as it has hired two prominent American AI researchers,Sebastian Seung of Princeton University and the University of Pennsylvanias Daniel Lee.Samsung makes AI talent a priority610 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY11 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYEven as the workforce evolves at a rapid pace,most semiconductor companies are optimized for the workforce of the past.An amazing 71 percent of industry executives agree that their employees are more digitally mature than their organization,resulting in a workforce that is waiting for its organization to catch up.Trend 3:Human+workerThe semiconductor manufacturing industry is fighting to attract,educate,and retain the necessary talent for its continued growth.A significant workforce gap of up to 10,000 global positions stretches the industrys ability to meet the worlds already demanding technology needs.7 Enrollment in STEM education has fallen,while demand for high-skilled tech workers has increased partly because of the extraordinary growth of popular consumer-facing companies like Facebook,Amazon,Google and Netflixall of whom compete for the same talent semiconductor companies do.8Developments like 5G,AI and autonomous driving require new chip architectures and improved reliabilitywhich require talent with different skill sets.Without the right workforce in place,the industry will not be able to capture the growth.Hiring and reskilling talent with the right knowledge and capabilities is essential to competitiveness.Not only does digital require new talent sets,it attracts them.Most Millennials expect to be in a Human+workforce,working side-by-side with intelligent machines.Given semiconductor companies are in a high tech,fast-paced industry,workers expect cutting-edge work environments.NEW WORLD REQUIRES NEW TALENTIntel has built up its programmable chips team by acquiring eASIC,a 19-year-old fabless semiconductor company.The acquisition of eASICs chip sets and talent base will help drive business in 5G and IoT.11 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYIntel acquires talent for 5G and IoT912 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYTREND 4SECURE US TO SECURE MEWhile ecosystem-driven business depends on interconnectedness,those connections increase companies exposure to risks.Leading businesses are recognizing that just as they already collaborate with entire ecosystems to deliver best-in-class products,services,and experiences,its time security joins that effort as well.Trend 4:Secure us to secure meEnterprises arent victims,theyre vectorsLess than one in four semiconductor companies say they know their ecosystem partners are working to be compliant and resilient.Semiconductors are a national security concern in an industry rife with an increasing number of intellectual property violation allegations.Couple that with recent security incidents where threats are originating not from breaches within the company,but through a supplier or a partner,and security becomes a top ecosystem concern.Semiconductor companies are as vulnerable as the weakest link in their ecosystem.AS SECURE AS THE WEAKEST LINKOnly 23%of semiconductor companies report they know their ecosystem partners are working diligently to be compliant and resilient with regard to security vs 29%globally23%13 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGYTrend 4:Secure us to secure meAdding security to the functionality of a chip is an important way for a chip manufacturer to increase the value of their products.Especially in the IoT market,where device makers want to keep their costs low,a chip become