Warc-2018年全球广告趋势调查报告（英文）-2018.12-13页.pdf

FAANG brands have increased their TV spend by more than$1 billionYouTube engagements push Google CPCs to new lowOne-quarter of Netflix subscribers might leave if ads were introducedBrands set to question Snapchat and Twitter in 2019 Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 2018In this report21Media analysisKey media intelligenceLatest WARC researchBrands set to question Snapchat and Twitter in 2019The latest practitioner sentiment towards marketing budgets and trading conditions around the worldAdspend projections from WARCs Consensus and International Ad forecastsResults from WARCs annual survey of global advertising expenditure23Next edition:MobileConsumer sentiment towards data collection in return for relevant TV adsTVs share of global display advertising spend and successful campaign budgetsTVs reach and share of daily video consumptionTVs contribution to short-and long-term profit ROIBrands perception of TV effectiveness versus their spending intentions for 2019FAANG brands have increased their TV spend by more than$1 billionYouTube engagements push Google CPCs to new lowOne-quarter of Netflix subscribers might leave if ads were introduced Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 201831Media analysis10.0%TVs share of global display advertising spend 41.9%62.0%71.0%US consumers unwilling to have their personal data collected for more relevant TV advertising61.5%56.4%live TVs share of total daily video viewingaddressable share of TV ad impacts by 2022 TVs allocation in successful high-budget($10m+)campaignsproportion of long-term advertising-generated profit by TV Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 20184Note:Mobile includes tablet.TV excludes licensing fees.Newspapers,magazines,TV and radio exclude digital adspend.Data are for WARCs 12 key markets,which between them account for approximately two-thirds of the value of global ad trade.SOURCE WARC International Ad ForecastLinear TV still dominates the global display ad market.It is estimated to have accounted for over two-fifths(41.9%)of investment this year,a full 25.1 percentage points(pp)ahead of the second-largest display medium,mobile internet.The$140bn in estimated TV adspend among WARCs 12 key markets for 2018 represents a rise of 1.0%from 2017 and 12.9%from a decade ago.But TVs share has been eroded by 6.7pp since 2009,mostly at the expense of mobile,which has grown 16.6pp over the period.On current trends,mobile would overtake TV as the largest display medium in 2024.TVs share dips to 30.1%for 2018 when other advertising formats such as search and classified are included.This represents a loss of 1.7pp from 2017 and 8.9pp from 2009.These linear figures do not account for video on demand ad income which,though small,is increasing its share of broadcasters ad revenue.In the UK,ad income from on demand services is forecast to account for 4.5%of broadcasters total ad revenue this year,up from 4.1%in 2017 and 1.3%in 2011.Media Analysis:TV at a crossroadsLinear TV continues to dominate global display adspend,but its share is falling0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2009201020112012201320142015201620172018(f)NewspapersTVCinemaDesktop internetMagazinesRadioOutdoorMobile internetGet the data Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 20185Live TV still accounts for the majority of rising daily video consumptionDaily video consumption is rising in the UK and TV still accounts for the majority of this time:56.4%in 2017.Broadcasters share of the video day rises above two-thirds when playback TV(such as shows recorded using a DVR)and broadcaster video-on-demand(BVOD)are factored in.The trend is less pronounced among younger audiences,where live TV accounts for a third of their daily video viewing.However,this still places live TV as the largest single medium,ahead of second-placed YouTube on 22.1%.The same is true among US millennials.Indeed,research by comScore shows that ad-supported TV content reaches more American millennials per minute than YouTube,Facebook,Snapchat and Instagram combined.While the long prophesised cord-cutting Armageddon has yet to materialise,younger generations are spending more time with SVOD OTT services such as Netflix.One-third of the 60 million US OTT households do not subscribe to pay TV,while 18%have cut the cord.GroupM,citing Ampere Analytics,notes that US linear TV viewing peaked when Netflix reached 20%of homes,and has dipped in near-perfect correlation with Netflixs rising penetration thereafter.SOURCE Thinkbox,BARB,comScore,Broadcaster stream data,OFCOM Digital Day,IPA Touchpoints,RentrakMedia Analysis:TV at a crossroadsNote:Total daily video time(hours:minutes)shown in brackets.Other video includes DVD,cinema,Facebook and other online video.56.4%60.0%61.6%67.0%10.8%10.8%11.4%11.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017201620152014Live TVPlayback TVBroadcaster VODSVODYouTubeOther video33.1%40.0%43.5%49.0%9.6%10.1%7.0%9.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017201620152014Live TVPlayback TVBroadcaster VODSVODYouTubeOther video(4:20)(3:30)(4:35)(3:25)(4:37)(3:27)(4:39)(4:19)Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 20186Brands set to question Snapchat and Twitter in 20192Key media intelligenceFAANG brands have increased their TV spend by more than$1 billionYouTube engagements push Google CPCs to new lowOne-quarter of Netflix subscribers might leave if ads were introduced Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 20185511,3811,557FacebookAmazonAppleNetflixGoogle7FAANG brands have increased their TV spend by more than$1 billionThe FAANGs(Facebook,Amazon,Apple,Netflix and Google)have nearly tripled their TV adspend over the last six years,according to the latest available data from Nielsen Ad Intel.The grouping registered US TV advertising expenditure of$1.6 billion in 2017,182.5%higher than the level seen in 2011.Year-on-year growth in 2017 was 12.7%.Of the five,Apple invests the most in TV ads$617 million in 2017 a 39.6%share of the group.However,while Google accounted for 13.9%in 2011,this had risen to 27.7%($432 million)by 2017.Over the same period,Amazon has grown from 20.4%to 28.2%($439 million).Facebook accounted for 1.0%($16 million)and Netflix for 3.4%($53 million)last year.With total American TV adspend topping$60 billion in 2017,FAANGs accounted for just 2.5%.In online advertising,Facebook and Google dominate,attracting nearly two-thirds of the total.Amazons total ad revenue is growing rapidly,but from a far lower base.Media IntelSOURCE Nielsen Ad IntelNote:TV spend includes national cable TV,broadcast TV,Spanish language cable TV,Spanish language broadcast TV,spot TV and syndication TV.Google includes YouTube.Get the data Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 20188WARC GMI:TV budgets contract further while mobile and digital continue rapid expansion3Latest WARC researchWARC GMI:APAC and Americas budgets drop while Europe returns to growthWARC Consensus Forecast:Global adspend to rise 5.2%this yearWARC International Ad Forecast:Global growth upwardly revised to 7.3%this yearWARC International Ad Forecast:Mobile internet set to record strongest growth this yearWARC Adspend Database:New data show internet overtook TV as the largest ad medium in 2017 Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 2018Latest WARC research9WARC Consensus Forecast:Global adspend estimated to have grown 5.5%this yearSOURCE WARC Data,International Ad Forecast(December 2018);Zenith,GroupM,MAGNA Global(December 2018);Dentsu(June 2018).Global advertising spend is estimated to have grown by 5.5%in dollar terms this year,marking a 0.3 percentage point(pp)upgrade since the last assessment in November,according to WARCs latest Consensus Forecast,a weighted average of third-party growth projections.The collective estimate for adspend growth in 2017 has also been retained at a rate of 4.0%,though full-year data in WARCs Adspend Database show global growth of 4.7%when exchange rates are factored in.MAGNA Global made a strong upgrade to its estimates for global growth this year,from 6.4%to 7.2%.MAGNA believes this was the strongest growth rate since 2010,and cited the continuing growth in digital spend mostly in social and online video as well as a boost for TV from cyclical events such as the FIFA World Cup and campaign spending during the US midterms.Zeniths December growth figures of 4.2%for 2017 and 4.5%for 2018 were unchanged from its previous outlook in September.GroupM,however,downgraded its 2018 estimate by 0.2pp to 4.3%.0%2%4%6%8%MAGNA GlobalZenithGroupMDentsuWARCConsensus20172018Note:Comparisons between forecasts are not truly like-for-like as WARC applies variable exchange rates to all years.This has been factored into the weighting to draw a purer consensus.Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 2018Latest WARC research10The global ad market grew 5.1%in 2017 the eighth consecutive year of expansionSOURCE WARC Data,Adspend DatabaseEach year,WARC conducts a global survey of advertising expenditure with partners in 96 markets.The research runs from January to October,with full year figures published in WARCs Adspend Database during November.The following slides represent the results from the latest wave of research.In Purchasing Power Parity terms,which remove the distorting effects of exchange rate fluctuations,the global advertising market grew 5.1%in 2017.This was the eighth consecutive year of growth,though it marked a mild cooling from the 6.2%rise recorded in 2016.After accounting for inflation,real growth in the global ad market equated to 3.2%last year.In dollar terms,global adspend rose 4.7%to a record-high$562.7bn.This was a faster growth rate than the 4.1%rise recorded in 2016.In real terms,growth was recorded at 2.2%last year,compared to 3.0%in 2016.In euros,the market was valued at 500.5bn in 2017,up 3.0%from 2016(when growth was recorded at 4.4%).However,the data show that market growth was flat in real terms last year.Note:Data are net of discounts,include agency commission and exclude production costs.Get the data0.8-7.38.24.95.04.74.64.16.25.1-10-8-6-4-2024681001002003004005006007008009001,0002008200920102011201220132014201520162017Year-on-year%changeAdvertising expenditure,billionsYear-on-year%changeUS$EURPPP Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 2018Global,Top advertising marketsSOURCE WARC Data,Adspend Database112017(PPP billions)2017 vs 2016%change2017 vs 2008%change10-yearCAGRRegionalshareDifferencevs 2016GlobalshareDifferencevs 20161United States190.53.8%19.0%1.8%94.6%+0.1pp24.4%-0.3pp2China147.612.8%181.7%10.9%47.4%+1.6pp18.9%+1.3pp3Japan42.64.8%17.0%1.6%13.7%-0.6pp5.5%=4United Kingdom29.24.8%36.0%3.1%16.1%-0.1pp3.7%=5India28.77.0%121.3%8.3%9.2%-0.2pp3.7%+0.1pp6Germany26.83.8%9.3%0.9%14.8%-0.3pp3.4%=7Russia24.712.3%16.9%1.6%13.6%+0.8pp3.2%+0.2pp8Brazil22.3-2.1%28.8%2.6%43.4%-1.3pp2.9%-0.2pp9Indonesia21.820.3%136.2%9.0%7.0%+0.7pp2.8%+0.4pp10France16.73.4%9.1%0.9%9.2%-0.2pp2.1%=Total550.87.0%48.5%4.5%70.6%+1.3pp Copyright WARC 2018.All rights reserved.Global Ad Trends December 2018Global,Top advertising markets(cont.)SOURCE WARC Data,Adspend Database122017(PPP billions)2017 vs 2016%change2017 vs 2008%change10-yearCAGRRegionalshareDifferencevs 2016GlobalshareDifferencevs 201611South Korea12.66.2%51.8%4.3%4.0%-0.1pp1.6%=12Australia11.3=22.8%2.1%3.6%-0.3pp1.4%-0.1pp13Italy10.83.1%-12.8%-1.4%6.0%-0.2pp1.4%=14Canada10.82.7%-10.7%-1.1%5.4%-0.1pp1.4%=15Mexico10.53.6%37.9%3.3%20.5%+0.6pp1.4%=16Pan Arab9.9-22.5%165.5%10.3%55.0%-0.1pp1.3%-0.5pp17Argentina9.312.8%96.7%7.0%18.1%+1.9pp1.2%+0.1pp18Thailand9.0-3.0%12.9%1.2%2.9%-0.4pp1.2%-0.1pp19Spain8.53.3%-10.9%-1.2%2.7%-2.1pp1.1%=20Philippines7.411.9%180.5%10.9%2.4%+0.1pp1.0%+0.1ppTotal100.20.7%27.9%2.8%12.8%-0.6ppWARC has published independent and objective advertising research since 1982.Our data products are trusted by the worlds leading brands,ad and media agencies,media owners,research bodies,academic institutions and market Newman Street LondonW1T 3EUUnited Kingdom+44(0)20 7467 8100 enquiriesWARC.comWashington DC 2233 Wisconsin Ave NW Suite 535 WashingtonDC 20007 United States+1 202 778 0680 americasWARC.comSingaporeOUE Downtown 1,#44-036 Shenton WaySingapore068809+65 3157 6200 asiapacificWARC.comUtilise WARCs suite of benchmarks to measure your ROI against industry sector and geography,decide on the right media mix for your campaign,and compare your ad/sales ratio with the sectors wider performance.About WARC DataContact UsBenchmarksDatabasesInstantly access advertising spend data in 96 markets across major media and formats.Check CPM and GRP costs by media and target audience in 63 markets.ForecastsWARC produces detailed adspend forecasts for 12 key markets,which between them account for two-thirds of global advertising expenditure,atop a biannual forecast for media inflation drawn from a consensus of exclusive agency data.Global Marketing IndexEstablished in 2011,the Global Marketing Index(GMI)is designed to provide a unique monthly indicator of expenditure and business conditions for marketers worldwide.Our panel of 10,000 marketing professionals is invited to give its views of current business conditions,including marketing spend,media budgets and staffing.The results provided exclusively to WARC Data subscribers each month.Data pointsAccess hundreds of pre-made charts and datasets on media consumption,spend and costs.扫码关注：金融干货精选获取更多干货资料