WTTC-2019各国旅游业对经济的影响和趋势（英文）-2019.5-20页.pdf

TRAVEL&TOURISMGLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACT&TRENDS 2019“As some nations look increasingly inward,Travel&Tourism becomes even more critical as an engine of economic development and as a vehicle for sharing cultures and building mutual understanding.”Gloria Guevara Manzo,President&CEOWorld Travel&Tourism CouncilFor more information,please contact:ROCHELLE TURNER|Research Directorrochelle.turnerwttc.orgNEJC JUS|Economic Research Managernejc.juswttc.org GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACT&TRENDS 2019 FOREWORDAs one of the worlds largest economic sectors,Travel&Tourism creates jobs,drives exports,and generates prosperity across the world.The sector,comprised of a wide range of industries,aims to serve and support domestic,international,business and leisure visitors.Companies,large and small,in industries ranging from accommodation and transportation to food&beverage,retail and culture and sports&recreation,all strive to create products and services that bring people together,support communities and celebrate the wonders that our world can offer.In its annual analysis quantifying the global economic and employment impact of Travel&Tourism in 185 countries and 25 regions,the World Travel&Tourism Councils(WTTC)research reveals that the sector accounted for 10.4%of global GDP and 319 million jobs,or 10%of total employment in 2018.The division of overall spend is firmly weighted towards the leisure market,which represented 78.5%of the total compared with 21.5%for business spend,and the sector accounted for 6.5%of total global exports and 27.2%of total global service exports.Domestic tourism,which represented 71.2%of all tourism spending in 2018 and had the strongest growth in developing nations,continues to support opportunities by spreading development and regional economic benefits and building national pride.The continued rise in the number of middle class households and the solid growth in global consumer spending once again enabled the Travel&Tourism sectors growth to reach 3.9%,outpacing the global economy for the eighth consecutive year.The USA,China,Japan,Germany and the UK were the top five markets in 2018,collectively representing 47%of the global Travel&Tourism GDP.Across the regions in 2018,Asia-Pacific remained a strong performer,growing by 6.4%,but North Africas performance with 8.6%year on year growth is particularly notable.This growth not only showcases the sectors resilience and capacity to bounce back from security shocks,but also its ability to spread its benefits widely across the world.In effect,Ethiopia,Ecuador,St Kitts and Nevis,Egypt and Turkey led the world for Travel&Tourism GDP growth in 2018.This growth,in turn,enables job creation.Travel&Tourism,which already supports one in every ten jobs on the planet,and has accounted for one in five of all jobs created across the world over the past five years,is a dynamic engine of employment opportunities.Jobs in Travel&Tourism particulary support women,youth and other,often marginalised groups of society.Factors influencing the flow of travellers around the world,such as a destinations attractiveness and its currency strength,will continue to affect traveller behaviour in the coming year.Undoubtedly,new developments will emerge alongside these existing factors.As some nations look increasingly inward,Travel&Tourism becomes even more critical as an engine of economic development and as a vehicle for sharing cultures and building mutual understanding.The most effective policy and investment decisions are made with empirical evidence.For nearly 30 years,WTTC has been proud to provide the only global comparative evidence base for Travel&Tourisms economic performance.This data empowers both public and private bodies to make sound economic decisions that can support sustainable and inclusive growth and provides the comparative evidence to analyse the impacts.As a result,governments across the world are better able to strategically plan and develop more effective policies,enhance their decision-making relating to investment,and further cooperate with the private sector to ensure the Travel&Tourism sector provides the greatest opportunities for societies to prosper.Gloria Guevara ManzoPresident&CEOCONTENTS01 ECONOMIC IMPACT:GLOBAL 6The top numbers on the global contribution of Travel&Tourism,today and into the future.02 ECONOMIC IMPACT:REGIONAL 10A look at Travel&Tourisms contribution at a regional level,including highlights and key developments.03 LARGEST&FASTEST GROWING TRAVEL&TOURISM ECONOMIES 12Top 20 largest and fastest growing Travel&Tourism economies.04 LEAGUE TABLES 14A look at the top 10 national market impacts by GDP,employment,visitor exports and Travel&Tourism capital investment,today and into the future.05 GLOSSARY 16Key terms used in the Travel&Tourism Economic Impact 2019 research.HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS Travel&Tourism contributed US$8.8 trillion to the global economy in 2018.This equates to 10.4%of global GDP The sector grew by 3.9%in 2018;faster than the global economys growth of 3.2%.It outpaced overall economy growth for the eighth consecutive year Travel&Tourism was the second fastest-growing sector in 2018,only marginally behind Manufacturing,which grew by 4.0%Across the world more than 319 million peoples jobs are supported by Travel&Tourism.This represents 10.0%of all employment,or one in every ten jobs worldwide.The sector has accounted for one in five of all net new jobs created across the world over the past five years Our forecasts show that there will be 100 million additional jobs created across the world over the next ten years in Travel&Tourism.This means that one in every four new jobs will be created by the sector over the next decade In terms of spending,contribution is firmly weighted towards the leisure market which in 2018 accounted for 78.5%of total Travel&Tourism spending compared with 21.5%from the business market.Domestic visitor spending makes up 71.2%of the total compared to 28.8%from international visitors Asia-Pacific was the strongest-growing region in terms of Travel&Tourism GDP in 2018,followed by Africa.China alone contributed one quarter of global Travel&Tourism growth last year USA and China remained the largest Travel&Tourism economies in 2018,together accounting for 35.2%of the worlds total Travel&Tourism GDP,followed by Japan,Germany and the UK The worlds fastest-growing countries in terms of Travel&Tourism GDP are dominated by emerging and developing economies.In effect,Ethiopia(+48.6%),Ecuador(+21.6%),St Kitts and Nevis(+16.8%),Egypt(+16.5%)and Turkey(+15.0%)led the world for Travel&Tourism GDP growth in 2018GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACT&TRENDS 2019|51.1 CONTRIBUTION TO GDPTRAVEL&TOURISM OUTPACES GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWTH FOR THE EIGHTH CONSECUTIVE YEARTravel&Tourism is a key sector for economic development and job creation throughout the world.In 2018,the sectors total contribution to the global economy reached US$8.8 trillion(equating to 10.4%of global GDP).The division of overall spend is firmly weighted towards the leisure market which in 2018 accounted for 78.5%of the total compared with 21.5%from business spend.Meanwhile,spending by international visitors represented only 28.8%of all tourism spending in 2018 with the remaining 71.2%of spending coming from domestic visitors.While countries tend to focus on international tourism given inbound revenue through exports,domestic tourism is an important tool for regional economic growth and development1.The continued rise in the number of middle-class households,solid growth in global consumer spending,low unemployment rates,continued rebound from security threats,currency depreciation and visa relaxation in several countries around the world enabled Travel&Tourisms growth to reach 3.9%in 2018,a rate higher than that of the global economy for the eighth consecutive year.At a country level,Travel&Tourism outpaced wider economy growth in 102 out of 185 countries,including overall economy growth in 13 of the G20 countries.01TRAVEL&TOURISMS CONTRIBUTION TO THE WORLDS ECONOMY21.5%BUSINESS78.5%LEISURE28.8%INTERNATIONAL71.2%DOMESTIC10.4%US$8.8 trillionINTERNATIONAL VISITOR SPENDGLOBAL TRAVEL&TOURISM SPENDINGTOTAL CONTRIBUTION TO GDP27.2%OF TOTAL GLOBAL SERVICE EXPORTS6.5%OF TOTAL GLOBAL EXPORTS1|ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION:GLOBAL PERFORMANCE 1 See https:/www.wttc.org/publications/2018/domestic-tourism/for further details on the importance and impact of domestic tourism6|WORLD TRAVEL&TOURISM COUNCIL CHART 1:WORLDS TRAVEL&TOURISM GDP GROWTH VS.ECONOMY GDP GROWTH,2011-187.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Global economy GDP growth(%)Global T&T GDP growth(%)In addition to outpacing global economic growth,Travel&Tourism was the second fastest-growing sector in the world in 2018,ahead of Healthcare(+3.1%),Information Technology(+1.7%)and Financial Services(+1.7%).Its growth was marginally behind Manufacturing,which grew by 4%in 2018.CHART 2:T&T GDP GROWTH COMPARED WITH OTHER SECTORS,2018Travel&Tourism GDP growth in 2018 was particularly driven by spending from international visitors,which grew by 4.2%,and spending on leisure(+4.1%).This led the share of international spending to increase from 27.3%of the total spend in 2017 to 28.8%in 2018 and the share of leisure spend to rise to 78.5%from 77.5%in 2017.In terms of the countries share of contribution to global Travel&Tourism growth last year,two countries dominate;one quarter(25%)came from China while the USA provided a further 12%.Other major contributors include India with a 6%share,while Turkey,France and Japan each contributed 4%to the sectors growth in 2018.MANUFACTURINGTRAVEL&TOURISMCONSTRUCTIONRETAIL&WHOLESALEHEALTHCAREAGRICULTUREFINANCIAL SERVICESCOMMUNICATION0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%4.0%3.9%3.4%3.3%3.1%1.8%1.7%1.7%CHINA:25%USA:12%INDIA:6%TURKEY:4%FRANCE:4%JAPAN:4%REST OF WORLD:45%CHART 3:CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL TRAVEL&TOURISM GDP GROWTH,2018GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACT&TRENDS 2019|71|TRAVEL&TOURISMS CONTRIBUTION TO THE WORLDS ECONOMY Forecasts point to a 3.6%expansion for Travel&Tourism in 2019,faster than an expected global economy growth of 2.9%.Source:Oxford Economics/Haver AnalyticsWHERE WILL FUTURE TRAVEL&TOURISM GROWTH COME FROM?Travel&Tourisms growth in 2019 is expected to remain resilient despite a slowing global economy.Our forecasts point to a 3.6%expansion for Travel&Tourism,faster than an expected global economy growth of 2.9%.Future growth for the sector will be driven by continued visa relaxation and currency depreciations,both helping to attract higher numbers of international visitors.The continued rise of middle-class households will also make a significant contribution.With over 50%of the global population now categorized as middle class or rich,more and more people can afford to travel.Research suggests that domestic tourism demand picks up at an income level of about US$35,000,while international travel takes off at around US$50,0002.The chart below shows the number of additional households in key markets that have the real potential to become new travelling households over the next ten years.By 2029,there are expected to be nearly 67 million new travelling households in China,followed by India with 14 million and the USA with 9 million.This is likely to be reflected in countries increased contribution to Travel&Tourism GDP.China is expected to account for 35%of the worlds absolute change in Travel&Tourism GDP during 2018-29,followed by the USA(11%)and India(6%).CHART 4:NEW TRAVELLING HOUSEHOLDS NEW HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOME$35,000,2029 VS.2019 2 See Goldman Sachs ladder of spending.https:/ KOREAGERMANYUKMEXICOBRAZILUSAINDIACHINA0 5 10 15Millions66.5M8|WORLD TRAVEL&TOURISM COUNCIL 1.2.CONTRIBUTION TO EMPLOYMENTONE IN FIVE OF ALL NEW JOBS WERE CREATED BY TRAVEL&TOURISM OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARSTravel&Tourism is one of the leading job creators across the world,with more than 319 million jobs supported by the sector.This represents 10.0%of all employ-ment,or one in every ten jobs worldwide.The sector has accounted for one in five of all net new jobs created across the world over the past five years and is a dynamic engine of employment opportunities.Jobs in Travel&Tourism particular-ly support women,youth and other,often marginalised,groups of society3.Travel&Tourism was a major contributor to net job creation in countries where the sector is particularly important to the economy;in Greece,Portugal and the UAE,it created a remarkable 71%,60%and 47%of all new jobs,respectively.Our forecasts show that there will be 100 million additional Travel&Tourism jobs created across the world over the next ten years.This means that one in every four new jobs will be created by the sector over the next decade.Asia-Pacific will account for 68%of all jobs generated during this period,with China alone accounting for 41%.CHART 5:TRAVEL&TOURISM TOTAL CONTRIBUTION TO EMPLOYMENT AND SHARE OF NET JOB CREATION(2013-2029)35%30%25%20%15%10%5%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029T&T contribution to employment(%)Net job creation(%)3 See https:/www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/2019/generating-jobs-for-youth.pdf and https:/www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/2019/driving-womens-success-2019.pdf for further details on the importance of Travel&Tourisms employment to youth and womenGLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACT&TRENDS 2019|92|TRAVEL&TOURISMS CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL ECONOMIES 02TRAVEL&TOURISMS CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL ECONOMIES3.5CHART 6:REGIONAL TRAVEL&TOURISM GDP%GROWTH(2018)2018 Growth highlighted in green when it is above global Travel&Tourism GDP growth of 3.9%Latin-America and the Caribbean:In Latin America,Travel&Tourism grew by 2.4%,more than twice as fast as the overall economy.Growth has been driven by international visitor spending on the back of falling currencies(e.g.Argentina),visa relaxation(e.g.Brazil)and as some countries(e.g.Ecuador)open up to foreign airline operators.Indeed,the fastest growth was witnessed in Ecuador(21.6%),while some of the larger Travel&Tourism economies(Brazil,Colombia and Peru)also witnessed respectable levels of growth.In the Caribbean,Travel&Tourisms growth of 2.1%continues to be driven by the post-hurricane recovery.AMERICASUS$2.3 TNTOTAL CONTRIBUTION TO GDP 2.3%North America:Travel&Tourism GDP growth reached 2.3%in 2018.The USA remains the main driver of regional activity,accounting for 83%of North Americas Travel&Tourism total contribution to GDP(and 18%of global contribution).Growth in the USA(+2.2%)was fully driven by the domestic market while inbound spending declined by a marginal 1%.The drop in inbound spending is attributed both to the dollars strengthening against many other currencies resulting in international visitors spending less on their trips,and a slowing of visits in the second half of the year,particularly from Germany and key Asian markets(China,South Korea and Japan).Indeed,international visitor numbers from China were flat in 2018,caused in part