J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-房地产行业-新加坡REITs：使用基于资本回报的估值方法来识别错误定价-2019.4.2-72页.pdfVIP免费

www.jpmorganmarkets.comAsiaPacificEquityResearch02April2019MagicMultiplesandSingaporeREITsUsingreturnoncapital-basedvaluationmethodologiestoidentifymispricingSingaporeConglomeratesandPropertyFraserSmithAC(65)6882-2518fraser.smith@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimitedTerenceMKhiAC(65)6882-1518terence.ml.khi@jpmchase.comBloombergJPMATKHIJ.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimitedCussonLeung,CFA(852)2800-8526cusson.leung@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedAjayMirchandani(65)6882-2419ajay.mirchandani@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimitedSeepage70foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Historically,SREITstrademoreonreturnsofcapitalratherthanunderlingassetvalues,withP/BsvsROEsshowingaveragehistoricalcorrelationof0.95andR2of0.91.ThisimpliesSREITstrademorelikeBankswiththemostefficientuserofcapitalbeingawardedthehighestvaluation.Inthisreport,weusereturn-on-capitalbasedvaluationmethodologiestoidentifypotentialmispricing.BasedonouranalysiswemoveAREITtotoppick,reiterateourpreferenceforCCT>KREIT/SUNandhighlightpotentialoutperformanceforCT.Usingreturnoncapital-basedmethodologies.Stockswiththemostimpliedupsidetocurrentsharepricesusingareturn-on-capitalbasedmethodologyareCT(N)andAREIT(OW).MostdownsideisforMCT(OW)andMLT(OW).Ourback-testinganalysisshowsaverageone-yearoutperformancevsFSTREIof8.1%ifweinvestedinthestockwithmostimpliedupsideineachofthepastfiveyears.Thissuggestspotentialoutperformance/upsideforCT.However,onfundamentals,wethinkweaker-than-expectedperformanceforFunancouldweighonCT’sperformance.WearemorebullishonthefundamentaloutlookforAREIT.Thismethodologyispooreratpredictingunderperformance,potentiallyasit...