J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-房地产行业-澳大利亚REITs 2019年回顾：20%的TSR与70亿美元的股本融资-2020.1.13-41页.pdf

Australia Equity Research13 January 2020Australian REITs2019 Review:20%TSR&$7bn in equity raisedAustralian REITsRichard Jones,CFA AC(61-3)9633-Ben Brayshaw(61-2)9003-Krzysztof Kaczmarek(61-2)9003-J.P.Morgan Securities Australia LimitedSee page 38 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.REITs delivered a+19.4%total return in 2019,making it the strongest year for REITs since 2014 in absolute terms.Relative to the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index,REITs underperformed by 400bp.The best performing REITs in 2019 were INA(+71.3%),CHC(+54.5%)and MGR(+47.5%),whilst underperformers included VCX(+1.9%),CQR(+1.7%)and RFF(-5.5%).2019 was the busiest year for REIT capital raisings since the post-GFC recapitalisations in 2009,with a total of$5.3bn raised by ASX200 REITs.The direct market activity was buoyant,with a total of$41.5bn of assets transacting,up 37%on 2018.Key points from 2019 included:REIT performance.INA(+71.3%),MGR(+47.5%)and SGP(+39.5%)posted strong returns in 2019 buoyed by a post-Federal Election recovery in the housing market.CHC(+54.5%)had another strong year,helped by performance fees and FUM growth attributed to strong office and industrial markets.CLW(+36.8%)gained as bond yields more than halved between January and August.AVN(+43.0%)was a standout performer amongst retail REITs as other shopping centre landlords underperformed.RFF(-5.5%)was targeted by an activist short-seller.Active year for equity raisings.ASX-listed REITs raised a total$7.1bn of equity in 2019,with issuance by ASX200 REITs totaling$5.3bn.Key issuers included CLW,which raised$1.1bn in equity across four raisings,DXS which raised$964m to fund the acquisition of 80 Collins St,GPT which raised$867m to finance the acquisition of Darling Quarter and MGR which tapped investors for$796m to its fund development pipeline.In the year there were four IPOs,which raised a total of$699m in new equity,the largest was HMCs listing in Oct-19.Robust transaction volumes.In the direct market,$41.5bn of assets changed hands,up 37%on 2018.REITs were net buyers in 2019 for the first time this decade,acquiring$10bn of assets.The biggest transactions in 2019 included SCGs sale of its Sydney office assets($1.5bn,4.3%yield),DXS&DWPFs acquisition of 80 Collins St($1.5bn,5.3%),GICs acquisition of a 25%share in Barangaroo T2&T3($1.1bn,4.8%)and Charter Halls acquisition of 50%of Chifley Tower($920m,4.5%).Table 1:Financial Market SummaryDec-15Dec-16Dec-17Dec-18Dec-1920152016201720182019S&P/ASX 300 REITs38,99244,13046,97348,51058,00114.4%13.2%6.4%3.3%19.6%S&P/ASX 200 REITs39,44644,63947,19248,56657,96714.3%13.2%5.7%2.9%19.4%S&P/ASX 30047,72753,35659,72457,89671,6592.8%11.8%11.9%-3.1%23.8%S&P/ASX 20048,34654,05060,42658,71072,4452.6%11.8%11.8%-2.8%23.4%10 Year Bond2.88%2.77%2.63%2.3%1.4%14bp-12bp-14bp-31bp-96bp Source:Bloomberg;J.P.Morgan.Figure 1:S&P/ASX 200 REITs IndexSource:Bloomberg.-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Dec 18Mar 19Jun 19Sep 19Dec 19ASX 200ASX 200 REITs2Australia Equity Research13 January 2020Richard Jones,CFA(61-3)9633-REIT PerformanceThe S&P/ASX 200 REITs Index delivered a 19.4%total return in 2019,the highest absolute return since 2014.On a relative basis,however,REITs underperformedthe broader S&P/ASX 200 Index by-4.0%.This reversed last years outperformance and was the fourth year of REIT underperformance in the past decade.The ASX200 Index returned 23.4%in 2019,the highest return since 2009.Table 2:15 years of REIT sector relative performance200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019S&P/ASX 200 REITs12.5%34.0%-8.4%-54.0%7.9%-0.4%-1.5%33.0%7.1%27.0%14.3%13.2%5.7%2.9%19.4%S&P/ASX 20022.8%24.2%16.1%-38.4%37.0%1.6%-10.5%20.3%20.2%5.6%2.6%11.8%11.8%-2.8%23.4%REIT Outperformance-10.3%9.8%-24.5%-15.5%-29.1%-2.0%9.1%12.7%-13.1%21.4%11.8%1.4%-6.1%5.8%-4.0%S&P/ASX 300 REITs12.7%34.1%-8.4%-55.3%9.6%-0.7%-1.6%32.8%7.3%26.8%14.4%13.2%6.4%3.3%19.6%S&P/ASX 30022.5%24.5%16.2%-38.9%37.6%1.9%-11.0%19.7%19.7%5.3%2.8%11.8%11.9%-3.1%23.8%REIT Outperformance-9.8%9.5%-24.6%-16.4%-28.0%-2.6%9.4%13.1%-12.4%21.5%11.6%1.4%-5.5%6.3%-4.2%Source:Bloomberg;J.P.Morgan.As can be seen in Figure 2,REITs performed broadly in line with the Australian equities market through to August.The bulk of the years underperformance came in September(4.6%underperformance)and December was also a weak relative month with a further 2.2%underperformance.Figure 2:S&P/ASX 200,REIT underperformance during 2019Source:Bloomberg.-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Dec-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19Oct-19Dec-19ASX200 REITsASX200REIT outperformance3Australia Equity Research13 January 2020Richard Jones,CFA(61-3)9633-Figure 3:Sector Performance(YTD to 12/19/2019)Source:J.P.Morgan estimates,Bloomberg4Australia Equity Research13 January 2020Richard Jones,CFA(61-3)9633-Table 3 presents the monthly returns of the S&P/ASX 200 REITs.March was the strongest month for REITs driven by falling bond yields.On a relative basis,Aprilwas the weakest month for REITs,whilst on an absolute basis the weakest performance came in December with all but three vehicles posting a negative return.Table 3:ASX200 REITs performance by monthJan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19GMG9.7%9.8%4.3%-1.4%1.8%13.3%-1.5%-2.0%-2.3%1.5%3.0%-8.8%SCG1.8%0.5%6.2%-7.1%-0.5%1.1%3.9%4.2%-2.7%-2.5%2.9%-2.8%DXS8.1%4.7%6.0%-1.9%3.0%2.7%1.1%-1.7%-7.5%0.3%2.2%-2.2%MGR7.1%7.1%7.0%2.9%7.1%5.4%2.9%-0.9%-4.1%4.9%5.0%-3.9%SGP7.4%-7.4%10.0%-2.1%17.5%-2.7%9.6%-1.1%0.7%7.5%3.3%-5.9%GPT8.6%0.9%6.2%-7.7%0.5%9.1%1.0%2.9%-3.6%-3.4%3.4%-6.8%VCX0.4%-5.7%5.7%-2.3%1.6%-2.0%6.5%-0.8%-0.8%3.9%0.4%-4.3%CHC10.9%6.9%16.7%-4.5%5.4%6.6%4.5%11.7%-7.9%-3.0%-4.3%4.2%URW15.1%-8.6%6.5%5.7%-11.4%-5.3%3.0%-1.0%6.0%4.2%4.2%-3.3%GOZ2.1%6.0%2.5%1.4%-0.2%0.8%6.6%0.2%-1.8%-1.4%3.3%-3.0%CMW7.1%4.2%0.7%2.7%2.7%1.6%2.2%4.2%4.8%4.3%-7.5%-2.6%CLW1.9%2.1%4.0%0.9%6.7%3.5%3.6%14.0%-1.7%0.2%-1.0%-1.4%BWP3.1%1.6%1.1%-1.1%-2.7%5.1%2.2%3.7%1.3%5.1%2.7%-5.9%SCP-2.4%-3.2%9.5%-3.0%-1.2%-2.7%2.1%7.8%-0.8%3.1%1.1%0.9%ABP12.5%-1.9%3.0%1.3%1.6%9.4%1.2%-4.3%-1.3%-0.5%-0.8%-4.6%VVR0.4%7.1%5.0%-3.1%5.3%3.1%2.3%10.9%-3.4%1.4%-3.5%-2.1%CQR1.6%0.0%2.2%0.0%-4.9%2.1%3.4%-3.5%-2.5%3.8%4.3%-4.0%NSR2.3%-1.9%0.3%1.4%-6.7%7.8%-6.3%11.9%-2.2%3.6%3.8%-2.5%INA2.3%0.1%0.0%1.7%3.9%1.6%5.6%15.5%3.3%9.8%6.8%5.5%S&P/ASX 200 REITs6.2%1.8%6.2%-2.6%2.5%4.2%2.6%1.2%-2.7%1.2%2.3%-4.4%S&P/ASX 2003.9%6.0%0.7%2.4%1.7%3.7%2.9%-2.4%1.8%-0.4%3.3%-2.2%REIT Outperformance2.3%-4.2%5.5%-4.9%0.8%0.5%-0.4%3.5%-4.6%1.6%-1.0%-2.2%Source:Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan.Individual REIT total returns for 2019 and its four component quarters are given in Table 4.The March quarter was by far the strongest quarter with a 14.8%total return for the ASX200 REITs index or more than 75%of the 2019 return.All REIT constituents ended the March quarter with a positive three-month return.The second quarter was broadly positive,with the exception of retail REITs,which dampenedreturns for the overall index.REITs were flat in the 2H of 2019 with fourth quarter returns weighed down by the underperformance of a number of large cap names,including SCG,GPT,GMG and CHC.5Australia Equity Research13 January 2020Richard Jones,CFA(61-3)9633-Table 4:Individual REIT Total Returns1Q192Q193Q194Q192019INA2.4%7.3%26.0%23.8%71.3%CHC38.4%7.4%7.6%-3.3%54.5%MGR22.8%16.1%-2.2%5.9%47.5%AVN7.1%4.1%17.6%9.1%43.0%SGP9.4%11.9%9.1%4.4%39.5%CLW8.1%11.4%16.1%-2.2%36.8%CMA7.3%13.7%10.6%-3.2%30.7%CIP11.5%3.1%7.1%4.8%29.1%GMG25.6%13.7%-5.7%-4.7%28.4%CMW12.4%7.1%11.6%-6.0%26.3%VVR12.9%5.2%9.6%-4.2%24.6%ARF16.7%-0.2%5.7%0.9%24.2%S&P/ASX 30010.9%8.0%2.6%0.7%23.8%S&P/ASX 20010.9%8.0%2.4%0.7%23.4%S&P/ASX 300 Prop14.4%4.1%1.1%-0.7%19.6%S&P/ASX 200 Prop14.8%4.1%0.9%-1.0%19.4%GOZ11.0%2.1%4.9%-1.2%17.4%BWP5.9%1.2%7.3%1.5%16.8%ABP13.8%12.6%-4.4%-5.8%15.4%GDI3.0%2.4%9.7%-0.5%15.2%DXS20.0%3.8%-8.1%0.3%14.8%CQE18.9%5.7%-1.1%-7.8%14.7%URWn.a.-27.6%8.0%5.1%13.0%SCP3.5%-6.7%9.2%5.1%10.9%NSR0.6%2.0%2.6%4.8%10.3%GPT16.3%1.2%0.2%-7.0%9.6%HPI1.6%9.6%-6.4%1.3%5.6%SCG8.7%-6.6%5.3%-2.5%4.2%VCX0.0%-2.7%4.9%-0.2%1.9%CQR3.8%-3.0%-2.7%3.9%1.7%RFF7.3%2.5%-25.1%14.9%-5.5%Other property companiesLLC7.4%5.0%37.5%0.2%55.4%AOG23.1%-2.2%13.3%0.5%37.0%Source:Bloomberg;J.P.Morgan.The top performers of 2019 were a mixed bag.Residential developers INA,MGR and SGP benefitted from signs of recovery in residential markets following the surprise win for the Coalition in the Federal Election in May.CHC delivered a solid return on the back of continued AUM growth and performance fees from its office funds,whilst AVN managed to outperform despite headwinds facing traditional retail weighing on fellow retail REITs throughout the year.The key outperformers in the year were:INA(+71.3%)delivered 19%EPS growth in FY19,which exceeded guidance and benefitted from record new home settlements.INA completed a$131.1mequity raise in October and was admitted to the ASX200 Index in December.6Australia Equity Research13 January 2020Richard Jones,CFA(61-3)9633-CHC(+54.5%)benefitted from continued strong office market performance in Sydney and Melbourne,driving performance fees and robust AUM growth.CHC has been an active in the direct market with key transactions in the year including the acquisition of Chifley Tower in Sydney,242 Exhibition Street in Melbourne,the Telstra exchanges portfolio and the BP service station portfolio.MGR(+47.5%)delivered 4%EPS and 5%DPS growth in FY19,at the top end of its guidance range.In its 1Q20 update MGR reported solid operating metrics across the retail,office and industrial portfolios,and noted it is seeingsigns of recovery in the residential market.MGR has been an early mover into the build to rent space.AVN(+43.0%)reported solid FY19 results against the background of generally subdued retail conditions.SGP(+39.5%)delivered 5.1%FFOps growth in FY19,in line with guidance.In the year SGP announced plans to re-shape its portfolio by down-weighting retail and retirement and up-weighting industrial.In its 1Q20 update SGP noted improving trends across both retail and residential sales,up from a weak 1H CY19.The biggest underperformers of the year were retail REITs,which underperformed on the back of weak investor sentiment towards retail assets and continued threat to bricks and mortar retailers from e-commerce.RFF was the only REIT to finish the year in the red after becoming the target of an activist investor campaign.VCX(+1.9%)performance was weighed down by weak retail conditions,poor investor sentiment towards retail assets and earnings dilution from the ongoing asset divestment program.CQR(+1.7%)underperformed due to weak retail conditions and poor investor sentiment.CQR reported its first cap rate expansion in FY19 since Dec-12.RFF(-5.5%)share price came under pressure following a critical report by offshore activist short seller.Direct&Wholesale Property ComparisonREITs(+19.4%)outperformed direct property which returned+7.6%.Industrial was the best performing asset class returning+12.8%in the 12 months to the end of Sep-19.Office property has returned+11.2%,whilst Retail has lagged with a+2.7%return.Wholesale funds returned+7.8%in the year to June.Table 5:Listed,Wholesale,and Direct Property Returns12 months to20192018201720162015Direct PropertySep7.6%10.9%12.0%12.3%12.6%-Retail2.7%7.5%10.5%10.6%11.3%-Office11.2%14.5%13.2%13.3%12.4%-Industrial12.8%11.4%10.2%12.8%16.7%Wholesale FundsNov7.8%*11.1%12.2%11.5%11.8%REITsDec19.4%2.9%5.7%13.2%14.3%Source:Bloomberg;MSCI;Mercer;J.P.Morgan estimates.*7.8%to June.7Australia Equity Research13 January 2020Richard Jones,CFA(61-3)9633-International ComparisonsEuropean REITs posted a solid performance in 2019 with the Developed Europe index returning 29.4%in the year helped by a strong performance of French REITs(38.5%)and UK vehicles(30.6%).Italian,German and Dutch REITs recorded double-digit returns in the year.Outside of Europe,Singapore was the strongest performing REIT market returning 27%,whilst regional neighbour Hong Kong SAR lagged globally following a period of civil unrest,returning just 4.1%.The Australian EPRA/NAREIT index returned 19.1%in the year,in line with Developed Asia.US REITs returned 24.3%.Table 6:International REIT performance1Q192Q193Q194Q192019FranceFTSE EPRA/NAREIT France Index 16.7%-0.5%8.6%9.8%38.5%UKFTSE EPRA/NAREIT UK Index 11.3%-1.9%6.4%12.5%30.6%Developed EuropeFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Europe Index 13.8%-4.0%8.8%9.0%29.4%SingaporeFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Singapore Index 13.2%7.0%1.7%3.1%27.0%Developed GlobalFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Global Index 16.9%-1.2%9.5%-1.0%25.3%ItalyFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Italy Index 19.7%-2.8%-3.1%10.3%24.4%USAFTSE EPRA/NAREIT United States Index 15.9%0.7%7.6%-0.9%24.3%New ZealandFTSE EPRA/NAREIT New Zealand8.8%11.3%4.4%-3.7%21.8%EurozoneFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Eurozone Index 13.1%-4.8%7.5%5.0%21.6%CanadaFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Canada Index 15.4%-1.2%7.5%-1.1%21.2%JapanFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Japan Index 11.1%-1.5%10.7%-0.2%20.9%Developed AsiaFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Asia Index 16.6%-0.7%3.9%-1.0%19.2%AustraliaFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Australia Index 14.7%4.7%-0.8%-0.1%19.1%GermanyFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Germany Index 12.7%-9.6%6.8%4.6%13.8%NetherlandsFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Netherlands Index 9.8%-9.3%5.2%5.1%10.1%Hong KongFTSE EPRA/NAREIT Hong Kong Index 20.7%-3.8%-13.6%3.7%4.1%Source:Bloomberg.8Australia Equity Research13 January 2020Richard Jones,CFA(61-3)9633-REIT ValuationREITs under our coverage are trading at a 0.5%premium to NAV,1.4%discount on NPV and 41%premium to NTA.The sectors negative price return and earnings growth saw REITs under our coverage closing the year at 18.3x earnings,up from 16.6x in Dec-18 and 17.4x in Dec-17.The sector dividend yield decreased 60bp to 4.8%in 2018 with small cap REITs yielding 5.5%and large caps 4.6%.REIT sector gearing is 26%,in line with Dec-18 and below the 29%from Dec-17.We see better value in large cap REITs relative to small cap REITs with a lower dividend yield offset by an aggregate 2.5%discount to our Jun-20 Price Targets.Table 7:REIT sector valuation summary(based on J.P.Morgan coverage universe)Dec-18Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Prem/Disc to NPV0.9%3.6%5.8%-1.4%Prem/Disc to NAV-4.4%6.8%8.0%0.5%Prem/Disc to NTA24.0%49.0%51.7%41.2%PE Ratio16.6x19.0 x19.4x18.3xDiv Yield5.4%4.6%4.5%4.8%AFFO Yield5.8%5.1%5.0%5.3%Gearing26%26%26%26%LargeCapsSmall CapsREITSectorex GMG,CHC,URW,CNI-Prem/disc to Jun-20 Price Target-2.5%-0.9%-2.2%-3.4%+FY20 Div Yield4.6%5.5%4.8%5.4%Total Return Forecast7.1%6.4%7.0%8.8%Source:J.P.Morgan estimates;Bloomberg;company reports.NTA and NPVThe figures below show the historical NTA and NPV premiums/discounts.The REIT sector premium to NTA is 41.2%.The long-term(25-year)average premium to NTA is 17.9%.Figure 4:REIT sector premium/discount to NTASource:Bloomberg;