Korn Ferry-未来的工作——全球人才荟萃（英文）-2019.2-52页.pdf

THE GLOBAL TALENT CRUNCHA global talent crisis could cost nations trillions of dollars in unrealized annual revenues,new Korn Ferry study finds.The talent crunchan imminent skilled labor shortage affecting both developed and developing economiescould ultimately shift the global balance of economic power by 2030 if left unaddressed.FUTURE OF WORKWHATS INSIDEIntroduction.Overview:The global perspective.The sector perspective:Financial and business services.Technology,media,and telecommunications(TMT).Manufacturing.The regional perspective:The Americas.Europe,Middle East,and Africa(EMEA).Asia Pacific.The last word.2About this study.This study estimates the impending talent crunch by modeling the gap between future labor supply and demand.We uncover the extent of the talent shortfall in 20 major economies at three milestones:2020,2025,and 2030.The model focuses on three knowledge-intensive sectors within each market that act as critical drivers of global economic growth:financial and business services;technology,media,and telecommunications(TMT);and manufacturing,and also examines the remainder of each economy.Using level of education as a commonly accepted proxy for skills,and taking into account forecast productivity gains,the study uses available data to forecast shortages for highly skilled,mid-skilled,and low-skilled workers to reveal an imminent talent crunch.3A major crisis is looming over organizations and economies throughout the world.By 2030,demand for skilled workers will outstrip supply,resulting in a global talent shortage of more than 85.2 million people.Signs are already emerging that within two years there wont be enough talent to go around.In countries with low unemployment and booming manufacturing production,including the Czech Republic,Poland,Hungary and Slovakia,a labor shortage has already accelerated automation and increased use of roboticsnot to replace people,but because there arent enough of them to fill the factories.Left unchecked,the financial impact of this talent shortage could reach$8.452 trillion in unrealized annual revenue by 2030,equivalent to the combined GDP of Germany and Japan.The United States alone could miss out on$1.748 trillion in revenue due to labor shortages,or roughly 6%of its entire economy.While leaders are betting heavily on technology for future growtha 2016 Korn Ferry survey found that 67%of CEOs believe technology will be their chief value generator in the future of workthey cannot discount the value of human capital.Even companies that are using more robotics foresee a growing need for human talent with advanced skills;for example,redeploying people from the factory floor,where robots can perform repetitive work,to the research laboratory.The problem,however,is the mismatch between technological advances,including automation,artificial intelligence(AI),and machine learning,and the skills and experience workers need to leverage these advanced tools.Technology cannot deliver the promised productivity gains if there are not enough human workers with the right skills.This has set the scene for a global talent crunch.The talent crunch,as modeled in this study,refers to the gap between talent supply and demand at three critical milestones:2020,2025,and 2030.This report seeks to help leaders successfully plan and execute on their strategies,despite the risk,by examining the scale,impact,and timing of the talent crunch and what it means for organizations over the long term.For this study,we assessed the talent-supply gap in 20 developed and developing economies across the Americas(Brazil,Mexico,the United States),Europe,the Middle East,and Africa(EMEA;France,Germany,the Netherlands,Russia,Saudi Arabia,South Africa,the United Arab Emirates,and the United Kingdom),and Asia Pacific(Australia,China,Hong Kong,India,Indonesia,Japan,Malaysia,Singapore,and Thailand).What we found is that global growth,demographic trends,underskilled workforces,and tightening immigration mean that even significant productivity leaps enabled by technological advances will be insufficient to prevent the talent crunch.More granularly,we examined talent supply and demand in each of the 20 economies as a whole and within three major knowledge-intensive industriesfinancial and business services(including insurance and real estate),technology,media,and telecommunications(TMT),and manufacturingand at three distinct skill levels,referenced throughout as:1.Highly skilled workers(Level A):These individuals have completed post-secondary education,such as college or university,or a high-level trade college qualification.2.Mid-skilled workers(Level B):These individuals have attained upper secondary education,such as high school,or a low-level trade college qualification.3.Low-skilled workers(Level C):These individuals have less than upper secondary education.Introduction.4Our findings forecast the scale and impact of the talent crisis at each milestone in terms of skilled employee shortages and what they imply in terms of lost opportunity for value creation.For instance,the United States financial services sector will suffer the most from stunted growth due to lack of talent,with$435.69 billion in projected unrealized economic output,equal to about 1.5%of the countrys entire economy.For the all-important technology sector,we found that a labor-skills shortage will reach 4.3 million workers by 2030,or 59 times the number of employees of Alphabet,Googles parent company.On the positive side,India is projected to have a skilled-labor surplus of around 245.3 million workers by 2030,the only country in our study expected to have a surplus,owing mainly to its vast supply of working-age citizens and government programs to boost workers skills.Fortunately,there is time to mitigate the risk.Governments and organizations must make talent strategy a key priority and take steps now to educate,train,and upskill their existing workforces.This report will help leaders understand how talent shortages are impacting their sectors and the regions where they operate so they can immediately begin to address the talent crunchbefore they fall behind and suffer the economic consequences.Time is running out.5million workerstrillion unrealized revenue6Overview:The global perspective.By 2030,we can expect a talent deficit of 85.2 million workers across the economies analyzedgreater than the current population of Germany.The shortfall of Level A workers could equal 21%of the highly skilled workforce of the 20 countries in our study.India is the only country analyzed that can expect a talent surplus,driven by a burgeoning working-age population.This global skills shortage could result in$8.452 trillion in unrealized annual revenue by 2030equivalent to the combined GDP of Germany and Japan.The impact of the talent crunch is so significant that the continued predominance of sector powerhouses is in question,from London as a global financial services center to the United States as a technology leader to China as a key manufacturing base.As a result,organizations may be prompted to relocate their headquarters and operational centers to places where the talent supply is more plentiful.Governments will be forced to invest in improving their peoples skills to avert corporate flight and to defend their nations income and status.7Total global talent deficit by economy Surplus 0Deficit 0-6 millionSignificant deficit 6 million-12 millionAcute deficit 12 million-18 millionSurplus 0Deficit 0-6 millionSignificant deficit 6 million-12 millionAcute deficit 12 million-18 million20202030These heat maps show the intensity of labor shortages across the economies analyzed,and demonstrate how shortages will worsen between 2020 and 2030.The acuteness of an economys deficit is based on its overall shortage of workers,not accounting for the size of its total workforce.8Total global labor deficit as a percentage of workforce Unrealized output due to labor deficit$2.1 trilionUnrealized outputdue to labor deficit$3.8 trillion Unrealized outputdue to labor deficit$8.5 trillion WorkforceLabor Deficit2020202520303%97%6%94%11%89%9Financial and business services.Could talent shortages threaten financial services?2030:Labor skills shortage of 10.7 million workers and unrealized output of$1.313 trillion.Financial and business services is one of the worlds most important sectors in terms of contribution to GDP and its the sector most threatened by severe talent shortages.Our study forecasts a deficit of 10.7 million workers by 2030,equivalent to more than 45 times the global workforce of HSBC Bank.Markets in our study could miss out on generating$1.313 trillion of revenue by 2030 due to skills shortages in the financial and business services sector.The top five financial centers in our studythe United States,China,the United Kingdom,Germany,and Francecould fail to generate$870.47 billion by 2030,with the United States accounting for half of this(equivalent to 1.5%of the projected 2030 US economy).European financial centers like the UK and Germany could struggle to retain their global positions due to looming skilled-talent shortages,with the UK facing a skills shortage equivalent to a fifth of its sector workforce by 2030.Japan,the worlds sixth biggest financial center,could fail to generate$113.62 billion in 2030,equivalent to more than 18%of the sectors potential value in 2030.India is the only country expected to have a surplus of highly skilled financial and business services labor by 2030.The sector perspective.Surplus 0Deficit 0-600,000Significant deficit 600,000-1.2 millionAcute deficit 1.2 million or greater2030Global financial and business services talent deficit by economyThe acuteness of an economys deficit is based on its overall shortage of workers,not accounting for the size of its total workforce.10Number of workers 10,699,380 5,542,129 2,940,765 Unrealized output$339.9 billionUnrealized output$632.5 billionUnrealized output$1.313 trillionFinancial and business services labor deficit.11The knowledge economydominated by financial and business servicesis a key economic driver for both developed and developing markets.In the United States and the United Kingdom,the sector now comprises roughly a third of the economy,and in Germany it represents almost a quarter.In the United Arab Emirates,it now makes up 23%of the nations economy,and in China it could contribute 17%to the countrys economy by 2030.But talent is already tight in financial and business services,with rapid changes creating a mismatch between available workers and vacant positions.Labor shortages in this sector are the most acute and could potentially inflict the greatest damage on growth,accounting for more than 16%of the total unrealized revenue that our research projects by 2030.While in the near term(2020),a handful of countries including China,Russia,and the UK are expected to have small surpluses at Level A(highly skilled talent),the picture shifts in the years ahead.The UK,United States,Singapore,and Hong Konghome to some of the worlds leading financial centerswill experience a combined deficit of 2.6 million Level A workers by 2030,according to Korn Ferry research.Talent shortages in this sector across the 20 economies analyzed could result in$1.313 trillion in unrealized revenue.The United States financial services sector is projected to suffer the most.The$435.69 billion shortfall forecast not only accounts for a third of the global sector total in the researchs findings,but also is equal to 1.5%of the whole US economy.At the global level its easy to see why skilled-worker deficits in places like the US can have such a huge impact on total sector revenues.Just three economies among the 20 studiedthe United States,China,and Germanywill make up almost 40%of the total financial and business services worker deficit at Level A by 2030.In fact,the only place where a supply of Level A workers will grow faster than demand between 2020 and 2030 is India,which is expected to have a 1.1 million surplus by 2030.India is currently the eighth biggest financial and business services market in the firms study,but this pool of highly skilled labor could boost it above other markets where talent supply is drying up.A significant sector with significant shortages.Financial centers feel the pinch.120%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Unrealized output as a percentage of economy at 2030Economy at 2030IndonesiaThailandJapanAustraliaBrazilMexicoSaudi ArabiaMalaysiaIndiaSouth AfricaRussiaChinaHong KongSingaporeGermanyNetherlandsUAEFranceUKUSImpact of labor shortage on financial and business services sector at 2030$435.7 billion$90.0 billion$60.8 billion$12.3 billion$21.3 billion$136.9 billion$29.2 billion$65.6 billion$147.1 billion$16.3 billion$6.4 billion$0.0 billion$0.9 billion$14.7 billion$9.0 billion$70.2 billion$68.1 billion$113.6 billion$6.2 billion$9.1 billion13Global financial services players are already experiencing skilled-talent shortages and are set to face the greatest talent gap of any industry sector in the next decade.Financial services leaders need to act now or they will forfeit substantial growth opportunity.Michael Franzino,President,Global Financial Services,Korn Ferry14Small economies struggle.The talent crunch will be even more damaging for small but currently mighty spots Hong Kong and Singapore.By 2030,Hong Kongs financial services skills shortages will result in lost revenue equal to a staggering 12%of its total economy,while Singapores could be equivalent to 6%of its economy.Michael Franzino,president,Global Financial Services,Korn Ferry:“For a small economy,the most important resource is its people,and opportunities for growth are closely aligned to the skills of the population.Small economies like Hong Kong and Singapore have limited opportunities for expansion,so upskilling the existing workforce is critical.Human resource development holds the key both to economic development and reducing inequality by enabling local populations to achieve their potential.”15Technology,media,and telecommunications(TMT).Could talent shortages slow the digital revolution?2030:Labor skills shortage of 4.3 million workers and unrealized output of$449.70 billion.Technology underpins all other sectors of the global economy,but its advancement could be stalled by serious talent problems.Such deficits are already evident and Korn Ferry research forecasts that by 2030 the labor-skills shortage will reach 4.3 million workers.This is equivalent to 59 times the number of employees of Alphabet,Googles parent company.While the digital revolution often seems unstoppable,it could be about to hit a wall.The United States,currently the worlds leading technology market,can expect to lose out on$162.25 billion by 2030 due to sector skills shortages.These talent deficits may imperil Americas status as the global tech center.China,which has labored to transform itself into a world-leading tech center,could fail to generate$44.45 bi