J.P.摩根-解密加密货币展望：技术应用和挑战-2018.2.9-71页.pdf

Global Research09 February 2018 J.P.Morgan PerspectivesDecrypting Cryptocurrencies:Technology,Applications and ChallengesGlobal ResearchSee page69 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment Long-term StrategyJan Loeys AC(1-212)834-5874J.P.Morgan Securities LLCGlobal Head of ResearchJoyce Chang(1-212)834-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCJ.P.Morgan Perspectives Decrypting Cryptocurrencies:Technology,Applications and ChallengesCompleted 09 Feb 2018 03:36 PM ESTDisseminated 09 Feb 2018 03:37 PM ESTThis document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER.KOY*TKQO*KOY8TKQOJWONYXSM8MYW*;9:9:;B2Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives09 February 2018Jan Loeys(1-212)834- Contributing AuthorsUS Equity ResearchSterling Auty,CFASoftware Technology J.P.Morgan Securities LLC(1-212)622-6389Tien-tsin Huang,CFAPayments,Processors&IT Services J.P.Morgan Securities LLCtien-(1-212)622-6632Kenneth B.Worthington,CFABrokers,Asset Managers&Exchanges J.P.Morgan Securities LLC(1-212)622-6613Connor AllenPayments,Processors&IT Services J.P.Morgan Securities LLC(1-212)622-1303Jenny NiBrokers,Asset Managers&Exchanges J.P.Morgan Securities LLCjenny.ni (1-212)622-6495Asia Equity ResearchKatherine LeiBanks&Financial Services J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)L(852)2800-8552George CaiBanks&Financial Services J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)L(1-212)834-5874Alex YaoInternet J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)L(852)2800-8535Grace Guan J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)L(852)2800-8511 European Equity Research Gurjit S Kambo,CFAEuropean General FinancialsJ.P.Morgan Securities (44-20)7742-0719Ravin S MehtaEuropean General Financials J.P.Morgan Securities (44-20)7742-4561Raul Sinha European Banks J.P.Morgan Securities (44-20)7742-2190Sheel ShahEuropean Banks J.P.Morgan Securities (44-20)7134-8455Economic ResearchJahangir AzizEmerging Markets Economic and Policy Research J.P.Morgan Securities Singapore Private L(65)6882-2461Michael FeroliEconomic and Policy ResearchJPMorgan Chase Bank NA(1-212)834-5523Fixed Income ResearchAlex RoeverUS Rates Strategy J.P.Morgan Securities LLC(1-212)834-3316Joshua YoungerUS Fixed Income Strategy J.P.Morgan Securities LLC(1-212)270-1323Phoebe A WhiteFixed Income Strategy J.P.Morgan Securities LLC(1-212)834-3092Global Markets Strategy John NormandCross-Asset Fundamental Strategy J.P.Morgan Securities (44-20)7134-1816Nikolaos PanigirtzoglouGlobal Markets Strategy J.P.Morgan Securities (44-20)7134-7815Mika InkinenGlobal Markets Strategy J.P.Morgan Securities (44-20)7742 6565Commodities ResearchNatasha KanevaJPMorgan Chase Bank NA(1-212)834-3175Gregory C.ShearerJ.P.Morgan Securities (44-20)7134-8161FX StrategyThomas AnthonjJ.P.Morgan Securities (44-20)7742-7850 Niall OConnor J.P.Morgan Securities LLC(1-212)834-5108This document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER.KOY*TKQO*KOY8TKQOJWONYXSM8MYW*;9:9:;B3Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives09 February 2018Jan Loeys(1-212)834- Table of ContentsExecutive Summary.4Cryptocurrencies:overview.5Blockchain the technology behind cryptocurrencies.8Cryptocurrency 101.18The economics of cryptocurrencies.21EM:troubled by the anonymity of cryptocurrency.25Cryptocurrencies as portfolio diversification:Questionable,despite low correlations.28The regulation of cryptocurrencies.32Who uses cryptocurrencies and what for?.36Banks involvement in Blockchain and CCs.40Asset manager participation limited in cryptocurrency funds.Credibility an issue.46Cryptocurrency Retail Payments.52Cryptos in China.55Examining Bitcoins cost structure.59Technical Analysis.63Appendix.66With this special report on Cryptocurrencies,we launch a new quarterly series,J.P.Morgan Perspectives,which brings together views and analysis from across the broad scope of J.P.Morgans Global Research franchise.This new series will feature in-depth analysis of critical global issues impacting economies and markets across all disciplines.We hope this series will both inform and foster public debate on evolving economic,investment and social trends.Joyce Chang,Global Head of ResearchThis document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER.KOY*TKQO*KOY8TKQOJWONYXSM8MYW*;9:9:;B4Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives09 February 2018Jan Loeys(1-212)834- Executive SummaryIntroductionJ.P.Morgan researchers from across a wide range of expertise analyze various aspects of Cryptocurrency(CC)to gain insight on this market and its potential evolution in this report.CCs extremely rapid growth,and then fall,both in terms of number of CCs and prices and their challenge to the current financial infrastructure,are forcing all market participants to closely monitor and understand this new market.Cryptocurrencies are virtual currencies that are created,stored and governed electronically by an open,decentralized,cryptography system.CCs can be used to exchange money,to buy certain goods/services or as an investment.There are over 1,500 cryptocurrencies with a market cap of some$400bn as of February 8,2018,with Bitcoin being the largest representing a third of the market according to CoinMarketCap.Launched in early 2009,Bitcoin(BTC)is the dominant cryptocurrency with a market cap of$140 billion(representing one-third of the CC market)and nearly 17 million BTC units in circulation(capped at 21 million).Bitcoin was the first major cryptocurrency and has spawned many competing CCs and technologies,many of which still fall back to Bitcoin as a support currency.Bitcoin itself has split into two cryptocurrencies,Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash,to improve liquidity.TechnologyCryptocurrencies are the face of the innovative maelstrom around the Blockchain technology that is bringing both massive price volatility and a constant trial-and-error of new product try-outs and failures.CCs are unlikely to disappear completely and could easily survive in varying forms and shapes among players who desire greater decentralization,peer-to-peer networks and anonymity,even as the latter is under threat.The underlying technology for CCs could have the greatest application in areas where current payments systems are slow,such as across borders,as payment,reward tokens or funding systems for other Blockchain innovations and the Internet of Things,as well as parts of the underground economy.ApplicationsThere are over 1,500 CCs with a market cap of$400bn.Transactions in the three largest CCs average$550bn per month and come mostly from individuals.Ownership is highly concentrated.The opportunity set around direct CC trading appears relatively limited for banks,while the two Bitcoin futures recently launched are seeing only$140mn in daily trading.Blockchain saw its first expression through Bitcoin the first CC but is more likely to ultimately see its greatest application outside of CCs across other financial and non-financial transactions,even as Blockchain itself looks set to evolve fast as the market learns about what works best.There is the potential for increased usage of Blockchain in cross-border payments,settlement/clearing/collateral management as well as the broader world of TMT,Transportation and Healthcare but only where any cost efficiencies offset regulatory,technical and security hurdles.Hedge funds have been moving into this market making up most of the 175 CC funds but AUM remains only a few billion dollars.Asset managers are experiencing limited success in bringing products to market and have not been able to launch CC funds or ETFs without support from the SEC or major distributors.While about half of the early CC transactions happened in the underground economy,the share of this is declining,with investing and speculation now taking a much larger share.ChallengesIt will be extremely hard for CCs to displace and compete with government-issued currencies,as dollars to euros and yuan are virtual natural monopolies in their regions and will not easily give up their seigniorage profits.CCs are experiencing heightened volatility and will face challenges from both technology(such as rising mining costs and hacking)and regulators who are concerned about anti-money laundering and investor protection,as CC payments are irreversible and there is no recourse.Security concerns have mounted in Bitcoin exchanges as hackers have infiltrated a number of CC exchanges generating large losses,while regulators are challenging anonymity.This document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER.KOY*TKQO*KOY8TKQOJWONYXSM8MYW*;9:9:;B5Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives09 February 2018Jan Loeys(1-212)834- Cryptocurrencies:overviewCryptocurrencies(CC)are virtual currencies that are created,stored and governed electronically by an open,decentralized,cryptography system.CCs can be used to exchange money,to buy certain goods/services or as an investment.There are over 1,500 cryptocurrencies with a market cap of some$400 billion,with Bitcoin being the largest,representing a third of the market according to CoinMarketCap(Huang1).CCs extremely rapid growth,and then fall,both in termsof number of CCs and prices,and their challenge to the current financial infrastructure are forcing all market participants to closely monitor and understand this new market.In response,J.P.Morgan researchers from across a wide range of expertise analyze various aspects of Cryptocurrency to gain insight on this market and its potential evolution in this report.Where are we now?Launched in early 2009,Bitcoin(BTC)is the dominant cryptocurrency with a market cap of$140 billion(representing one third of the CC market)and nearly 17 million BTC units in circulation(capped at 21 million).Bitcoins are created or“mined”by individuals(miners)when they complete the computational task of solving(processing)a Bitcoin transaction,unlocking new Bitcoins for that individuals effort as a reward.Bitcoin was the first major cryptocurrency and has spawned many competing CCs and technologies,many of which still fall back to Bitcoin as a support currency.Bitcoin itself has split into two cryptocurrencies,Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash,to improve liquidity(Huang).Acceptance of Bitcoin at the enterprise level is still in its infancy.Thousands of businesses,including major companies,now allow the use of CCs in exchange for goods and services(Inkinen,Allen).Surveys suggest,though,that less than 10%of Bitcoin holders plan to use their CC to pay for goods and services.Most use CCs for investing or speculating.Transactions are dominated by individuals,with the average transaction size currently around 1 Bitcoin.The anonymous nature of CC transactions makes it hard,if not impossible,to determine where the users are.We know the majority of miners and exchanges are in Asia,but of the ATMs that allow users to buy and sell CCs 1Names in italic refer to the lead authors of the sections followingfor cash are in North America.Early on,there was a strong suspicion that much of CCs were used in the illicit economy,largely because of the way CCs were set up as anonymous and off-the-official-grid.But recent surveys,and the small size of Bitcoin transactions,suggest that theshare of illegal transactions had fallen to 20%in 2016 and has continued to fall since.Part of this is due to authorities clamping down on dark web sites and tax authorities starting to demand tax information from companies that support the CC world(Inkinen).Although Banks across the globe have had limited direct involvement in Bitcoin or other CCs,the industry has been very active in pursuing initiatives around the Blockchain technology that underpins Bitcoin.The opportunity set around direct CC trading seems relatively limited,due in large part to anti-money laundering(AML)and know your customer(KYC)concerns,but in the near-to mediumterm,business models will likely need to evolve around the cost benefits of technology,including distributed ledgers(Sinha).Asset managers are in the early stages of cryptocurrency product development.There has been limited success in bringing products to market thus far.A leading issue is acceptance of the underlying cryptocurrency products,which yet appear to have the support of either the SEC or major distributors.While the recent launch of futures trading on the CBOE and CME would seem to help the fund industry with both improved Bitcoin price transparency and trading liquidity concerns highlighted by the SEC,we have yet to see product approvals and a growing number of funds are withdrawing applications.Security concerns have mounted in Bitcoin exchanges as hackers have infiltrated a number of cryptocurrencyexchanges,generating large losses.Thus,while there has been a lot of talk about cryptocurrency funds,at this point in time there is little assets under management invested globally in such products(Worthington).The surge in CCs has attracted the attention of central banks and regulators.The Fed,the ECB,and other macroprudential regulators view CC markets to be in only nascent stages,with minimal implications for systemic risk,and thus have not yet taken a stance on the regulation of the asset class.Meanwhile,global securities regulators have begun to lay down ground rules,in many cases subjecting CC-related businesses and initial coin offerings(ICOs)to existing securities laws,requiring registration or authorization,and promoting investor protection.To date,these have been piecemeal efforts,with various nations staking independent regulatory positions,and there has been little global coordination on cryptocurrency regulation.The anonymity among the exchange of This document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER.KOY*TKQO*KOY8TKQOJWONYXSM8MYW*;9:9:;B6Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives09 February 2018Jan Loeys(1-212)834- cryptocurrencies presents a challenge for regulators attempting to limit money laundering and terrorist-financing activities.We review the actions that regulators in various jurisdictions have taken to limit the risks associated with cryptocurrencies(Roever).What does the future bring?In the early stages of innovation,usually set off by new technology in this case Blockchain(Kambo)the market experiments with many different approaches to see what shape and form will stick and end up offering the most economic value-added.We would note that it is not pre-ordained that cryptocurrencies will succeed as there are valid concerns about what economic value they really contribute.But in a time of rapid innovation,many new products will are often-and-errored.We believe the potential disruption from Blockchain cannot be ignored.The excitement of innovation typically also leads to price booms and then crashes among the early movers,beforemore realistic prices emerge among the eventu