WilltheHistoricSoutheasterlyWindovertheEquatorialPacificinMarch2022TriggeraThird-yearLaNiñaEvent?XianghuiFANG1,FeiZHENG*2,3,KexinLI2,Zeng-ZhenHU4,HongliREN5,JieWU6,XingrongCHEN7,WeirenLAN8,YuanYUAN6,LichengFENG7,QifaCAI8,andJiangZHU21DepartmentofAtmosphericandOceanicSciences&InstituteofAtmosphericSciences,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200438,China2InternationalCenterforClimateandEnvironmentScience(ICCES),InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100029,China3CollaborativeInnovationCenteronForecastandEvaluationofMeteorologicalDisasters,NanjingUniversityofInformationScience&Technology,Nanjing210044,China4ClimatePredictionCenter,NCEP/NWS/NOAA,CollegePark,MD20740,USA5StateKeyLaboratoryofSevereWeather,ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences,Beijing100081,China6NationalClimateCenter,Beijing100081,China7NationalMarineEnvironmentalForecastingCenter,Beijing100081,China8Mailbox5111,Beijing100094,China(Received25May2022;revised15June2022;accepted26June2022)ABSTRACTBasedontheupdatesoftheClimatePredictionCenterandInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSociety(CPC/IRI)andtheChinaMulti-ModelEnsemble(CMME)ElNiño-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)OutlookissuedinApril2022,LaNiñaisfavoredtocontinuethroughtheborealsummerandfall,indicatingahighpossibilityofathree-yearLaNiña(2020–23).Itwouldbethefirstthree-yearLaNiñasincethe1998–2001event,whichistheonlyobservedthree-yearLaNiñaeventsince1980.Byexaminingthestatusofair–seafieldsoverthetropicalPacificinMarch2022,itcanbeseenthatwhilethethermoclinedepthswerenearaverage,thesoutheasterlywindstresswasatitsstrongestsince1980.Here,basedonaquaternarylinearregressionmodelthatincludesvariousrelevantair–seavariablesovertheequatorialPacificinMarch,wearguethatthehistoricsoutheasterlywindsovertheequatorialPacificarefavorablefortheemergenceofthethird-yearLaNiña,andboththeanomalouseasterlyandsoutherlywindstresscomponentsareimportantandcontribute~50%ofthethird-yearLaNiñagrowth,respectively.Additionally,thepossibleglobalclimateimpactsof...
