J.P. 摩根-中国-房地产行业-中国房地产：一个不同于以往的财报季-2019.2.16-58页.pdf

Asia Pacific Equity Research16 February 2019China PropertyA results season that could be different from beforeChinaChina/Hong Kong PropertyRyan Li,CFA AC(852)2800-Bloomberg JPMA RLI Karl Chan AC(852)2800-Bloomberg JPMA KCHAN Cusson Leung,CFA(852)2800-Jevon Jim(852)2800-Avery Chan(852)2800-Tim Huang(852)2800-J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)LimitedSee page 55 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.FY18 earnings season will start in about two weeks.Unlike the past five resultsseasons since 2016,we reckon the current set of results could lead to some generic disappointment.This could come from:(1)weaker margin guidance for 2019 and 2020,(2)the slowest sales growth target(10-15%)since 2016,and(3)consensus earnings downgrades(JPMe is 3%lower than consensus).It is also unlikely for developers to issue positive profit alerts due to FX losses recorded in 2H18.We recommend selling before the results,and we are more cautious on names which might disappoint on the earnings(CR Land,Country Garden,KWG),as well as the outperformers(R&F and Future).In contrast,we think Vanke and Longfor could deliver positive earning-surprises,and we also like Shimao into the resultsas we think the margin will not be as bad as what the market thinks.We may turn more positive in April,if sales start picking up after more policy easing.Developers could see 33%earnings growth:Among developers,we expect an average 33%growth in FY18 core net profit,mainly driven by an increase in delivery with stable margins.However,due to weaker market sentiment,we think developers could give weaker margin guidance(-1%p.a.into 20E),which would induce earnings downgrades.We believe the earning upgrade cyclealready ended in 3Q2018,following a significant re-rating due to margin expansion.JPMe 2018/19/20 core net profit is 3%/3%/4%lower than consensus.Contracted sales growth target could be mild:We expect an average of 10-15%Y/Y growth in developers FY19 sales targets.Small-cap developers including KWG and Aoyuan could be more aggressive at 30%Y/Y,while the big caps could be the most conservative(Vanke,Evergrande,CG).We expect 1H/2H sales split to be about 40/60 for most developers.Thus,the overall sentiment on sales will be rather unexciting in most of the 1H and it will be unlikely for most developers to upgrade targets by mid-year we think.We wouldavoid developers with a high 1H18 base,including Evergrande,CG,KWG and Jinmao.We believe the 10-15%growth in contracted sales is quite achievable as it is supported by a 25-30%increase in sellable resources,mainly from the increase in landbanking in 2017 and 2018.Stronger balance sheets in general:We are likely to see a 75-100 bps increase in average funding cost,but as marginal funding cost has started coming down since end-2018,the trend may stabilize into 2019.Overall net gearing should improve from 81%in Jun-2018 to 74%in Dec-2018,and with developers becoming more cautious in landbanking,gearing may continue to come down into 2019,in our view.That said,market share gain will still happen we think as the Top 20 developers bought 51%of land in 2018,vs 44%market share currently.Dividend payouts should be stable:With both on-shore and off-shore market financing opening,developers have more ample working capital and could remain generous in their payout ratios.We believe dividend payout ratios should remain stable at an average of 35%.In particular,Evergrande payout may stay high at 50%,Longfors should be maintained at 45%,and Future Lands payout guidance will likely rise from 30%to 35%(FY18 would be 38%including special dividend).Agile may have some downside risk to its 50%payout ratio in our view.Dividend yield stays high at an average of 7%as the average P/E of the sector remains low.Post results,we think Country Garden and Shimao could resume share buybacks at current share prices.China developers FY18 results preview summarySource:Company data,Bloomberg,J.P.MorganEstimates.Agile-3%11.7%10%China Jinmao0%5.4%17%COLI-8%3.5%15%CR Land-3%3.5%15%China Vanke5%4.9%5%Country Garden-1%5.5%0%Evergrande-8%7.7%9%Future Land-6%5.3%20%R&F-5%10.1%20%KWG-11%9.0%30%Longfor2%4.9%10%Shimao-7%5.9%20%Sino-Ocean2%10.3%20%Times-3%6.1%20%Yuzhou-2%9.0%20%Average-3%6.9%15%FY18E core net profit vs.consensus2019E sales growth FY18E div yield2Asia Pacific Equity Research16 February 2019Ryan Li,CFA(852)2800-Equity Ratings and Price TargetsMkt CapPriceRatingPrice TargetCompanyTicker($mn)CCYPriceCurPrevCurEnd DatePrev End DateAgile Group Holdings Ltd(3383)3383 HK5,031.58HKD10.08OWn/c13.50Dec-1914.00n/cChina Evergrande Group(3333)3333 HK40,135.26HKD24.00Nn/c21.00Dec-1919.50n/cChina Jinmao(0817)817 HK5,711.22HKD3.88Nn/c4.30Dec-194.00n/cChina Overseas Land&Investment(0688)688 HK40,419.77HKD28.95OWn/c35.00Dec-1934.00n/cChina Resources Land(1109)1109 HK25,702.21HKD29.10OWn/c37.00Dec-19n/cn/cChina Vanke-H2202 HK5,035.48HKD30.05OWn/c38.00Dec-1939.00n/cCountry Garden Holdings(2007)2007 HK28,905.85HKD10.48OWn/c17.50Dec-1918.10n/cFuture Land Development(1030)1030 HK4,999.66HKD6.63OWn/c8.50Dec-198.00n/cGuangzhou R&F Properties(2777)2777 HK6,184.23HKD15.06OWn/c18.50Dec-1916.00n/cKWG Group(1813)1813 HK2,918.29HKD7.24OWn/c9.60Dec-199.80n/cLongfor Group(0960)960 HK18,025.58HKD23.80OWn/c29.00Dec-19n/cn/cShimao Property Holdings(0813)813 HK8,561.70HKD20.35OWn/c27.00Dec-1926.50n/cSino-Ocean Group Holding Limited(3377)3377 HK3,561.87HKD3.67OWn/c5.30Dec-195.50n/cTimes China Holdings(1233)1233 HK2,388.32HKD10.22OWn/c13.00Dec-1912.50n/cYuzhou Properties(1628)1628 HK2,306.21HKD3.77OWn/c5.50Dec-19n/cn/cSource:Company data,Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan estimates.n/c=no change.All prices as of 15 Feb 19.Table 1:Summary of price targets&target P/EsSource:Company data,Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan.Last price(HK$)OldNewOldNewOldNew15-Feb-19(x)(x)Large capsChina Vanke-H2202.HK43.124.830.05OWOW9.08.539.038.0-3%26%COLI0688.HK40.453.328.95OWOW8.59.034.035.03%21%Evergrande3333.HK40.158.424.00NN5.05.019.521.08%-13%China Resources Land1109.HK25.748.229.10OWOW9.09.037.037.00%27%Country Garden2007.HK28.947.210.48OWOW8.07.518.117.5-3%67%Mid capsLongfor0960.HK18.026.523.80OWOW9.09.029.029.00%22%Shimao0813.HK8.613.220.35OWOW7.57.526.527.02%33%China Jinmao0817.HK5.711.03.88NN7.06.54.04.38%11%R&F2777.HK6.212.315.06OWOW4.54.516.018.516%23%Agile3383.HK5.07.210.08OWOW5.55.514.013.5-4%34%Future Land1030.HK5.011.96.63OWOW6.56.58.08.56%28%Small capsSino-Ocean3377.HK3.63.23.67OWOW6.06.05.55.3-4%44%KWG1813.HK2.97.87.24OWOW5.05.09.89.6-2%33%Yuzhou1628.HK2.34.03.77OWOW4.54.55.55.50%46%Times China1233.HK2.44.210.22OWOW4.54.512.513.04%27%Average(HK listed only)2433357.67.520%3M avgtrading value(US$mn)Potential upside/(downside)Target/implied P/ETarget PriceTarget price changeCompanyTickerMarketcap(US$bn)JPM Rating3Asia Pacific Equity Research16 February 2019Ryan Li,CFA(852)2800-Table 2:Summary of FY18E results previewSource:Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan estimates.Note:Net gearing is based on totalequity.Table 3:Summary of changes in core net profitSource:Bloomberg,Company data,J.P.Morgan estimates.2018E2018E2018ECompaniesStock codeCcyCore net profitCore EPSNetDPSdivJPM vs(LC mn)Y/Y%(LC$)Y/Y%gearing(HK$)yieldconsensusAgile3383 HKRmb7,35333%1.8933%116%1.1811.7%-3%China Jinmao817 HKRmb5,227175%0.47164%72%0.215.4%0%China Overseas Land688 HKHK$36,73318%3.3518%24%1.003.5%-8%China Resources Land1109 HKRmb20,71331%2.9931%33%1.033.5%-3%China Vanke-H2202 HKRmb36,66140%3.3139%37%1.464.9%5%Country Garden2007 HKRmb34,10453%1.5346%57%0.585.5%-1%Evergrande3333 HKRmb40,56362%3.1064%126%1.847.7%-8%Future Land Development 1030 HKRmb4,70466%0.8059%107%0.355.3%-6%Guangzhou R&F2777 HKRmb9,65240%3.0040%189%1.5210.1%-5%KWG1813 HKRmb3,92020%1.2418%91%0.659.0%-11%Longfor960 HKRmb13,15735%2.2232%45%1.174.9%2%Shimao813 HKRmb8,59734%2.5635%47%1.205.9%-7%Sino-Ocean3377 HKRmb4,90529%0.6527%82%0.3810.3%2%Times1233 HKRmb3,29432%1.8027%59%0.626.1%-3%Yuzhou1628 HKRmb3,58725%0.8212%79%0.349.0%-2%Average(Ex Jinmao)37%34%78%-3%EarningsCompanyTickerCCYFY17FY21E18-21EActualNewOldChgNewOldChgNewOldChgNewFY18EFY19EFY20EFY21ECAGR18E19E20EAgile3383 HKRmb5,5137,3537,725-5%8,1838,0222%9,2738,8305%9,94833%11%13%7%11%-3%-4%-6%China Jinmao817 HKRmb1,9025,2275,2130%6,4245,82310%8,0068,564-7%9,050175%23%25%13%20%0%-3%-6%COLI688 HKHK$31,17136,73338,909-6%43,31444,364-2%49,46251,452-4%56,52518%18%14%14%15%-8%-9%-11%CR Land1109 HKRmb15,79020,71322,327-7%25,19325,2400%27,92731,919-13%31,94431%22%11%14%16%-3%1%-3%China Vanke2202 HKRmb26,24036,66137,522-2%43,47243,2241%46,32847,118-2%49,95740%19%7%8%11%5%5%0%Country Garden2007 HKRmb22,26634,10436,901-8%42,21743,379-3%44,34144,780-1%48,50253%24%5%9%12%-1%-5%-14%Evergrande3333 HKRmb25,06140,56337,8727%49,00045,9807%51,67645,79913%56,66862%21%5%10%12%-8%-6%-6%Future Land1030 HKRmb2,8404,7044,7040%6,8266,5934%8,6077,9319%10,22966%45%26%19%30%-6%-3%-7%Guangzhou R&F2777 HKRmb6,8759,6529,5571%11,62510,08915%13,67410,84126%14,63240%20%18%7%15%-5%-6%-4%KWG1813 HKRmb3,2593,9204,432-12%5,3205,551-4%7,0347,389-5%9,25620%36%32%32%33%-11%-5%2%Longfor960 HKRmb9,77513,15713,1570%15,97015,7272%17,11516,3784%17,71135%21%7%3%10%2%-1%-12%Shimao813 HKRmb6,4088,5978,5810%10,76210,3494%14,34613,3248%17,57434%25%33%22%27%-7%-10%-3%Sino-Ocean3377 HKRmb3,8104,9055,123-4%5,7976,221-7%7,3257,546-3%8,52729%18%26%16%20%2%1%0%Times1233 HKRmb2,4933,2943,369-2%4,3364,432-2%5,6845,769-1%7,02732%32%31%24%29%-3%1%1%Yuzhou1628 HKRmb2,8713,5873,618-1%4,7074,886-4%5,9475,9250%6,91625%31%26%16%24%-2%1%5%Average-2%1%2%35%24%18%14%19%-3%-3%-4%Core Net income(LC mn)FY20EY/Y growthvs ConsensusFY18EFY19E4Asia Pacific Equity Research16 February 2019Ryan Li,CFA(852)2800-Table 4:Summary of changes in core EPSSource:Bloomberg,Company data,J.P.Morgan estimates.Table 5:Pre-LAT gross development marginSource:Company data,J.P.Morgan estimates.CompanyTickerCCYFY21E18-21EAcutalNewOldChgNewOldChgNewOldChgNewFY18EFY19EFY20EFY21ECAGR18E19E20EAgile3383 HKRmb1.421.891.99-5%2.112.072%2.392.275%2.5633%11%13%7%11%-2%-4%-2%China Jinmao817 HKRmb0.180.470.470%0.560.5011%0.690.74-6%0.78164%18%25%13%19%2%-6%-10%COLI688 HKHK$2.853.353.55-6%3.954.05-2%4.514.70-4%5.1618%18%14%14%15%-9%-9%-11%CR Land1109 HKRmb2.282.993.22-7%3.633.640%4.034.61-13%4.6131%22%11%14%16%-4%0%-3%China Vanke2202 HKRmb2.383.313.38-2%3.893.861%4.104.17-2%4.3939%18%6%7%10%5%4%-1%Country Garden2007 HKRmb1.051.531.65-7%1.922.00-4%1.992.06-3%2.1846%25%4%9%12%-3%-5%-12%Evergrande3333 HKRmb1.883.102.888%3.763.498%3.973.4814%4.3564%21%5%10%12%-9%-6%-6%Future Land1030 HKRmb0.500.800.800%1.151.114%1.451.349%1.7359%45%26%19%29%-6%-3%-4%Guangzhou R&F2777 HKRmb2.133.002.971%3.613.1315%4.243.3626%4.5440%20%18%7%15%-6%-8%-4%KWG1813 HKRmb1.051.241.40-12%1.661.74-4%2.152.26-5%2.7518%34%29%28%30%-14%-8%-4%Longfor960 HKRmb1.682.222.220%2.692.652%2.892.764%2.9932%21%7%3%10%1%-3%-13%Shimao813 HKRmb1.902.562.560%3.233.114%4.314.008%5.2835%26%33%22%27%-7%-10%-1%Sino-Ocean3377 HKRmb0.510.650.69-6%0.760.85-11%0.960.99-3%1.1227%18%26%16%20%-1%-2%7%Times1233 HKRmb1.411.801.84-2%2.362.42-2%3.103.15-1%3.8327%32%31%24%29%-3%1%1%Yuzhou1628 HKRmb0.730.820.83-2%0.981.05-7%1.241.27-3%1.4412%20%26%16%21%-5%-6%2%Average-2%1%1%33%23%18%14%18%-5%-4%-3%Core EPS(LC)FY17FY18EFY19EY/Y growthvs ConsensusFY20ECompany2012A2013A2014A2015A2016A2017A2018E2019E2020E2021EAgile44.0%38.0%34.0%26.0%27.9%41.4%43.3%40.6%33.1%32.9%China Jinmao41.3%45.0%34.3%32.1%31.4%21.7%29.6%27.3%25.7%21.2%China Overseas Land44.1%37.6%37.9%33.3%30.4%33.2%31.0%32.0%32.3%32.7%China Resources Land36.8%26.2%30.6%30.6%32.8%40.3%42.0%37.7%33.8%35.5%China Vanke-H32.5%26.8%24.0%24.0%24.9%32.1%32.8%27.6%26.8%26.5%Country Garden35.1%28.6%25.9%19.2%18.7%24.6%22.4%22.5%19.3%20.2%Evergrande29.1%29.8%28.8%28.6%26.2%33.9%31.8%31.3%30.9%28.6%Future Land24.0%23.2%21.0%21.4%23.8%34.8%34.2%31.5%27.2%26.2%Guangzhou R&F43.3%41.7%36.8%33.5%26.9%31.6%34.1%27.9%28.2%31.5%KWG Property34.7%33.8%33.8%34.1%29.7%32.5%33.0%31.3%29.4%27.5%Longfor40.4%27.0%25.7%26.2%27.6%32.8%30.6%29.1%26.6%29.7%Shimao32.5%35.0%32.4%27.2%26.1%28.3%30.6%28.5%25.9%28.1%Sino-Ocean Group29.6%26.2%24.3%19.1%22.2%23.7%23.4%22.3%23.1%23.1%Times28.3%23.7%30.6%25.8%25.8%27.9%28.9%28.4%27.4%23.6%Yuzhou39.4%30.7%36.1%35.7%36.3%35.4%33.6%30.8%30.2%27.0%Average35.7%31.6%30.4%27.8%27.4%31.6%32.1%29.9%28.0%27.6%5Asia Pacific Equity Research16 February 2019Ryan Li,CFA(852)2800-Table 6:Post-LAT gross development marginSource:Company data,J.P.Morgan estimates.Table 7:Core net margin(before MI)Source:Company data,J.P.Morgan estimates.Company2012A2013A2014A2015A2016A2017A2018E2019E2020E2021EAgile36.1%32.5%29.0%22.1%23.5%33.3%35.4%33.4%28.4%28.5%China Jinmao30.7%31.8%29.3%26.6%23.7%16.7%25.1%23.0%21.1%18.2%China Overseas Land38.0%33.8%33.8%30.9%26.8%28.9%25.5%26.3%26.6%26.9%China Resources Land33.4%23.1%26.7%26.0%27.8%33.0%32.9%30.1%29.4%29.3%China Vanke-H27.4%23.9%20.4%20.2%20.3%26.2%26.4%22.1%21.5%21.2%Country Garden30.8%26.5%24.4%18.2%16.6%20.8%20.4%21.3%18.3%19.2%Evergrande24.7%25.6%23.5%23.9%21.9%27.9%25.0%25.3%25.5%23.4%Future Land20.1%18.7%17.9%18.5%21.9%28.3%29.3%27.4%23.9%23.4%Guangzhou R&F37.6%36.4%33.8%28.9%23.5%26.3%27.9%23.3%23.1%25.1%KWG Property28.2%29.7%26.8%24.6%22.8%24.4%25.5%27.6%27.9%27.0%Longfor32.5%22.7%22.9%22.8%22.4%25.9%25.2%25.4%22.8%24.9%Shimao28.8%29.4%28.8%23.9%22.4%22.0%23.3%24.0%21.2%24.2%Sino-Ocean Group23.4%23.3%22.4%17.4%16.1%18.6%20.0%20.6%21.5%21.8%Times24.4%21.2%25.3%22.1%22.7%25.2%25.0%26.2%25.5%22.5%Yuzhou34.2%25.5%26.9%30.7%28.9%27.6%25.9%28.0%28.1%25.1%Average30.0%26.9%26.1%23.8%22.8%25.7%26.2%25.6%24.3%24.0%Development margin(Post-LAT)Company2012A2013A2014A2015A2016A2017A2018E2019E2020E2021EAgile16.3%12.9%9.5%7.0%7.6%10.9%12.8%12.3%11.1%12.0%China Jinmao13.9%15.4%15.8%16.5%13.9%9.7%13.5%12.7%11.6%10.2%China Overseas Land20.8%18.6%19.0%17.7%13.7%18.4%18.0%16.3%16.1%15.9%China Resources Land18.0%13.7%15.0%14.7%16.5%18.2%18.1%16.5%15.9%16.0%China Vanke-H15.3%13.7%12.4%12.8%10.3%13.0%13.7%11.9%11.6%11.3%Country Garden16.4%13.3%11.2%9.0%7.4%11.2%12.6%12.8%11.1%11.6%Evergrande9.2%10.6%6.3%5.7%8.7%12.1%13.0%13.2%13.1%7.8%Future Land9.5%8.5%6.7%6.6%6.5%11.1%11.9%12.4%11.6%11.4%Guangzhou R&F16.0%15.0%11.8%10.6%10.8%11.6%9.7%9.0%8.8%9.0%KWG Property15.2%15.4%11.5%11.3%10.2%11.7%10.8%13.9%14.4%14.7%Longfor20.3%14.6%13.8%15.0%13.2%15.6%13.1%13.2%11.8%14.4%Shimao16.3%16.2%16.8%14.3%11.9%12.6%12.2%13.0%12.0%14.2%Sino-Ocean Group6.5%9.9%8.9%9.5%9.2%9.0%8.9%9.1%8.1%8.4%Times8.5%9.5%12.4%10.7%10.3%12.7%12.9%14.4%14.0%11.7%Yuzhou20.9%14.9%14.4%16.1%14.9%15.2%13.0%14.6%13.8%11.5%Average14.9%13.5%12.4%11.8%11.0%12.9%12.9%13.0%12.3%12.0%Core net margin(before MI)6Asia Pacific Equity Research16 February 2019Ryan Li,CFA(852)2800-Figure 1:Developers net gearing based on total equitySour