J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-物流业-日本物流业：三巨头的第三季度业绩更新-2019.2.12-40页.pdf

Asia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019Equity Ratings and Price TargetsMkt CapRatingPrice TargetCompanyTicker(bn)Price()CurPrevCurEnd DatePrevEnd DateNippon Express(9062)9062 JT642.716,440OWn/c7,630Dec-198,350n/cSANKYU(9065)9065 JT326.085,000OWn/c7,000Dec-19n/cn/cHitachi Transport System(9086)9086 JT343.163,070OWn/c3,750Dec-193,500n/cSource:Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan estimates.n/c=no change.All prices as of 08 Feb 19.Logistics:Big Threes 3Q Results UpdatePoised For Rerating On Six-To 12-Month HorizonJapan Equity ResearchTransportation,Real Estate,REITRyota Himeno AC(81-3)6736-Bloomberg JPMA RHIMENO JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.See page 35 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Amid an uncertain market environment,our recommended investment strategy for the transport sector in 2019 comprises:1)a barbell strategy combining marine transport with railways and 2)a company-specific approach to logistics.Our order of preference among subsectors is:railways marine transport logistics airlines.We expect logistics companies to see rising profits as service prices continue to correct upward,but our share price outlook is tempered by:)waning upward momentum in service pricing,2)risk of slower freight movement following the upcoming consumption-tax hike,and 3)a potential reaction to 2018s share price gains.This has us advising a company-specific approach to the subsector and recommending Nippon Express,Hitachi Transport System,and Sankyuall Overweightas our top picks in view of company-specific catalysts for the first two and a longer-term growth story for the third.Nippon Expressbullish despite likely decline in FY2019 profits:Investors are concerned about 1)risk of a slowdown in the air freight business and 2)higher costs in FY2020(“equal pay for equal work”implementation,system and other strategic expenditures).We think the former is not fully priced in and accordingly apply a more conservative valuation than previously.We expect the latter to be priced in with the February 22 announcement of the new medium-term business plan.We expect equal pay for equal work to add 10 billion in costs and result in profits declining YoY in FY2020.However,we also expect the new medium-term plan to target higher profit margins and an increase in RoE driven by asset sales and shareholder returns and accordingly look for investors to assess it from a longer-term perspective.Sankyupoised for stable growth:Our bullishness reflects:1)ongoing demand for plant engineering and maintenance driven by superannuation,2)rising profit margins(as shorter construction times and improved operating efficiency drive down CoGS and also as the company avoids unprofitable customers and raises prices),and 3)Sankyus leveraging of its strong staff mobilization capabilities to broaden customer domains and expand execution capabilities.While we see a shortage of near-term catalysts in expectation of profits falling sharply in 1Q FY2019 as the company comes off a major year for shutdown maintenance in 2018,we look for profits to accelerate from 2Q as comps ease and new construction orders come into play.With the long-term growth scenario intact and the near-term earnings cycle poised to bottom,we think the shares have corrected enough to make them attractive.2Asia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Ryota Himeno(81-3)6736- Hitachi Transport Systemmerger with SG would be highly meaningful:Our bullishness reflects:1)growth in the 3PL market;2)the new(from FY2019)medium-term business plans likely inclusion of a growth story(encompassing not only Japan but also overseas expansion and M&A);3)deepening synergies with SG Holdings.The company is already seeing synergies with SG even at the current alliance level,but we think a full-scale merger could open the way to even more(operational reorganization,joint investment,joint procurement)and believe any progress toward this end is therefore meaningful.While potential issues with combining corporate cultures and operating schemes make it difficult to assess whether there will be any concrete progress in FY2019,we think a merger would imply clear longer-term growth potential.3Asia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Ryota Himeno(81-3)6736-Table of ContentsNippon Express(9062).7SANKYU(9065).16Hitachi Transport System(9086).244Asia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Ryota Himeno(81-3)6736-Figure 1:List of coverageInvest-mentShare price()Price targetDeviation DividendMarket capTransaction valueP/E(X)P/B(X)Since 2000opinion closing price()yield(bn)(million)19/3E20/3E 18/3A 19/3E High()Low()9062 Nippon ExpressOW6,440 7,63018.5%2.3%642.7 1,550 12.412.61.21.19,060 2,630 9065 SankyuOW5,000 7,00040.0%2.0%326.1 688 12.111.51.71.56,500 350 9086 Hitachi Transport SystemOW3,070 3,75022.1%1.3%343.2 725 15.214.31.61.53,225 489 Source:Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan estimates Note:Prices as of Feb.8.We raise the risk premium to 6.0%from 5.5%for 3PL company(Hitachi Transport System),which are currently seeing costs increasing in advance of price rises.Figure 2:TSE 33 industry indexes:Share-price performance last 3 monthsSource:Bloomberg,J.P.MorganNote:Price as of Feb.8.Figure 3:Transportation Subsectors:Share-price performance last 3 months Source:Bloomberg,J.P.MorganNote:Price as of Feb.8.JR covers JR East,JR West,JR Central,and JR Kyushu;Private railway covers Tobu,Tokyu,Keikyu,Odakyu,Keio,Keisei,Seibu Holdings,Kintetsu Group Holdings,and Hankyu Hanshin;Logistics(ground transportation)covers Nippon Express,Yamato Holdings,SG Holdings,Senko Group Holdings,Nikkon Holdings,Fukuyama Transporting,Seino Holdings,and Hitachi Transport System;Marine transportation covers NYK Line,Mitsui O.S.K.Lines,and Kawasaki Kisen;Air transportation covers JAL and ANA;Logistics(warehousing and transportation)covers Mitsubishi Logistics,Mitsui Soko Holdings,Sumitomo Warehouse,Kamigumi,and Kintetsu World Express;each group utilizes weighted averages.-30%-20%-10%0%10%TOPIXFISH/AGR/FRSTMININGCONSTRUCTIONFOODSTXTL&APPRLPULP&PAPERCHEMICALSPHARMACEUTICALOIL&COAL PRODRUBBER PRODUCTSGLSS&CRMC PRDIRON&STEELNONFER METALMETAL PRODUCTSMACHINERYELECTRIC APPLTRANSPORT EQUIPPREC INSTRUMENTOTHER PRODUCTSELEC POWR&GASLAND TRANSPRTMARINE TRANAIR TRANSPORTWARE&HARB TRNSINFO&COMMWHOLESALE TRDRETAIL TRADEBANKSSEC&CMDTY FUTRINSURANCEOTHER FINC BUSREAL ESTATESERVICES-10%-5%0%5%TOPIXJRRailways(excl.JR)Land TransportMarineTransportAir TransportWarehouseand harborTransport5Asia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Ryota Himeno(81-3)6736-Figure 4:Transportation Stocks:Share-price performance last 12 monthsSource:Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan Note:Price as of Feb.8.Figure 5:Transportation Stocks:Share-price performance last 3 monthsSource:Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan Note:Price as of Feb.8.Figure 6:Transportation Stocks:Share-price performance last 1 monthSource:Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan Note:Price as of Feb.8-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%TOPIXSector Avg.EAST JAPAN RAILWEST JAPAN RAILCENTRAL JAPAN RLJR KYUSHUTOBU RAILTOKYU Co.KEIKYU Co.ODAKYU ELEC RAILKEIO Co.KEISEI ELEC RAILSEIBU HDKINTETSU GROUP HHANKYU HANSHIN HSOTETSU HDKEIHAN HDNANKAI ELECTRIC RLNAGOYA RAILNISHI-NIPPON RLNIPPON EXPRESSYAMATO HDSG HDSANKYU INCSENKO GROUP HDNIKKON HDFUKUYAMA TRANSPOSEINO HDHITACHI TRANSPORHAMAKYOREXKONOIKE TRANSPORTTRANCOMNIPPON YUSEN KKMITSUI OSK LINESKAWASAKI KISENJAPAN AIRLINESANA HDMITSUB LOGISTICSMITSUI-SOKO HDSUMITOMO WAREHOUKAMIGUMI Co.KINTETSU WORLD-20%-10%0%10%TOPIXSector Avg.EAST JAPAN RAILWEST JAPAN RAILCENTRAL JAPAN RLJR KYUSHUTOBU RAILTOKYU Co.KEIKYU Co.ODAKYU ELEC RAILKEIO Co.KEISEI ELEC RAILSEIBU HDKINTETSU GROUP HHANKYU HANSHIN HSOTETSU HDKEIHAN HDNANKAI ELECTRIC RLNAGOYA RAILNISHI-NIPPON RLNIPPON EXPRESSYAMATO HDSG HDSANKYU INCSENKO GROUP HDNIKKON HDFUKUYAMA TRANSPOSEINO HDHITACHI TRANSPORHAMAKYOREXKONOIKE TRANSPORTTRANCOMNIPPON YUSEN KKMITSUI OSK LINESKAWASAKI KISENJAPAN AIRLINESANA HDMITSUB LOGISTICSMITSUI-SOKO HDSUMITOMO WAREHOUKAMIGUMI Co.KINTETSU WORLD-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%TOPIXSector Avg.EAST JAPAN RAILWEST JAPAN RAILCENTRAL JAPAN RLJR KYUSHUTOBU RAILTOKYU Co.KEIKYU Co.ODAKYU ELEC RAILKEIO Co.KEISEI ELEC RAILSEIBU HDKINTETSU GROUP HHANKYU HANSHIN HSOTETSU HDKEIHAN HDNANKAI ELECTRIC RLNAGOYA RAILNISHI-NIPPON RLNIPPON EXPRESSYAMATO HDSG HDSANKYU INCSENKO GROUP HDNIKKON HDFUKUYAMA TRANSPOSEINO HDHITACHI TRANSPORHAMAKYOREXKONOIKE TRANSPORTTRANCOMNIPPON YUSEN KKMITSUI OSK LINESKAWASAKI KISENJAPAN AIRLINESANA HDMITSUB LOGISTICSMITSUI-SOKO HDSUMITOMO WAREHOUKAMIGUMI Co.KINTETSU WORLD6Asia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Ryota Himeno(81-3)6736-Figure 7:Global Valuation Source:Bloomberg,J.P.MorganNote:Estimates are those of Bloomberg.2/8/2019Market capShare price performance(%)P/E(x)P/B(x)EV/EBITDAD/E ratio(%)ROE(%)(mn$)1M3M6M1YearFY18EFY19EFY18EFY19EFY18EFY19E6178 JPJAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO LTD53,6871.9%-4.4%5.6%1.9%13.112.80.4-1,607.03.03.09062 JPNIPPON EXPRESS CO LTD5,8582.7%-11.2%-8.5%-11.3%13.112.51.16.66.442.48.68.49064 JPYAMATO HOLDINGS CO LTD10,645-5.2%-6.6%-13.3%2.2%27.722.01.99.48.1-9.27.38.69143 JPSG HOLDINGS CO LTD8,6322.2%5.6%21.7%31.6%22.420.92.711.210.57.812.312.09069 JPSENKO GROUP HOLDINGS CO LTD1,1900.0%-3.9%-3.2%11.1%11.210.41.17.26.889.210.010.29072 JPNIKKON HOLDINGS CO LTD1,6871.5%-7.2%-6.8%-3.3%12.512.01.07.27.010.87.98.19076 JPSEINO HOLDINGS CO LTD2,8184.1%-8.8%-23.3%-15.0%13.812.20.74.34.1-19.15.45.99086 JPHITACHI TRANSPORT SYSTEM LTD3,1280.2%2.6%0.8%14.6%15.113.91.58.78.344.510.210.29301 JPMITSUBISHI LOGISTICS CORP2,072-1.7%-4.2%3.4%-0.4%20.518.80.810.810.310.83.74.09302 JPMITSUI-SOKO HOLDINGS CO LTD4461.7%-4.0%3.4%13.9%9.68.71.19.18.6275.711.010.99303 JPSUMITOMO WAREHOUSE CO LTD1,103-1.6%-3.5%4.4%-6.8%17.714.30.710.59.521.43.64.49364 JPKAMIGUMI CO LTD2,9557.7%3.1%5.4%3.3%16.215.60.97.27.0-16.05.55.59375 JPKINTETSU WORLD EXPRESS INC1,057-2.4%-13.1%-29.3%-29.6%10.59.90.96.86.570.78.88.9AMZN USAMAZON.COM INC780,138-4.1%-9.5%-15.8%17.6%43.632.017.918.714.518.526.228.0UPS USUNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B92,75011.0%-3.0%-10.3%-1.1%14.213.126.810.29.4490.5107.977.9FDX USFEDEX CORP46,2676.1%-22.7%-27.8%-25.9%11.29.92.47.06.468.620.020.2R USRYDER SYSTEM INC3,07510.5%1.8%-26.2%-27.3%10.09.41.14.84.5188.110.510.5EXPD USEXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC12,2754.8%-2.3%-3.1%17.8%21.520.76.313.412.6-52.729.529.4CHRW USC.H.ROBINSON WORLDWIDE INC12,4257.9%-1.1%-5.9%-0.1%18.016.97.812.512.060.740.537.6ZTO USZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR13,0408.3%6.4%-8.9%20.5%22.118.44.013.410.9-48.515.414.5BSTI USBEST INC-ADR1,7755.6%-20.2%-46.2%-44.2%-22.32.7297.67.9-54.1-9.812.5002468 CHSTO EXPRESS CO LTD-A4,32417.6%0.5%18.9%-20.0%14.213.53.69.18.2-65.124.320.8600233 CHYTO EXPRESS GROUP CO LTD-A5,03618.3%8.5%-4.8%-18.4%19.516.83.312.310.7-38.615.815.9002120 CHYUNDA HOLDING CO LTD-A8,71016.1%6.7%1.8%10.7%24.222.45.516.514.4-70.527.522.5002352 CHS F HOLDING CO LTD-A20,833-2.8%-15.8%-25.3%-31.0%29.625.04.016.012.7-27.212.813.3PWTN SWPANALPINA WELTTRANSPORT-REG3,93423.9%35.6%15.2%13.5%49.134.67.015.213.5-49.613.618.3KNIN EUKUEHNE+NAGEL INTL AG-REG15,9631.5%-4.3%-16.8%-17.2%20.418.97.612.912.0-30.232.934.2RMG LNROYAL MAIL PLC3,508-5.3%-22.6%-40.7%-48.1%10.310.50.64.54.40.16.97.6DPW GRDEUTSCHE POST AG-REG35,4861.5%-11.4%-18.5%-29.9%14.011.42.57.06.117.817.919.9SPOST SPSINGAPORE POST LTD1,5781.1%-5.0%-20.2%-34.0%21.119.81.611.911.3-4.16.96.8PNL NAPOSTNL NV1,1584.0%-9.6%-26.9%-43.8%6.95.9110.94.13.6-124.3288.8132.3BPOST EUBPOST SA1,757-1.6%-34.7%-42.7%-71.2%5.96.91.93.54.037.634.927.4Land transportation-0.9%-8.5%-14.1%9.2%34.826.415.016.712.9-21.130.429.17Asia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.Ryota Himeno(81-3)6736-Nippon Express(9062)Medium-term Plan Announcement Could Exhaust Bad News,Shift Focus To Longer TermConclusion:We lower our price target to 7,630 from 8,350 as we revise our earnings forecasts and target valuation.This still implies substantial upside,and we reiterate our Overweight rating.The shares rebounded a bit following strong 3Q results and a share buyback announcement but remain a distinct laggard in our view.Investors are concerned about 1)risk of a slowdown in the air freight business and 2)higher costs in FY2020(“equal pay for equal work”implementation,system and other strategic expenditures).We think the former is not fully priced in and accordingly apply a more conservative valuation than previously;note that any top-line decline for air freight also implies lower costs and is therefore unlikely to be fatal.We expect the latter to be priced in with the February 22 announcement of the new medium-term business plan.We expect equal pay for equal work to add 10 billion in costs and result in profits declining YoY in FY2020.However,we also expect the new medium-term plan to target higher profit margins and an increase in RoE driven by asset sales and shareholder returns and accordingly look for investors to assess it from a longer-term perspective.FY2018 guidance looks conservative,but we are also not overly optimistic:We now forecast FY2018 operating profit of 77.3 billion(+10%YoY;guidance and our previous forecast 77 billion).This implies a 7%YoY decline for 4Q.While guidance strikes us as conservative based on trends through 3Q,we are also not overly optimistic in view of profits in the core air freight business having already turned to decline in December.Overseas operations are on a December fiscal year-end and should therefore be broadly in line with revised guidance.Our operating profit forecast implies 7%YoY growth in real terms after adjusting for impairment effects(+3 billion YoY),a decline in retirement benefit costs(+0.9 billion),and non-recurrence of overpaid usage fee reversals posted a year earlier(1.9 billion).Now expect profits to decline in FY2019:We now forecast FY2019 operating profit of 75.9 billion(1.8%YoY;previously 78 billion).We factor in a sharper slowdown in air freight and higher-than-anticipated costs.We now expect“equal pay for equal work”initiatives being implemented from April 2022 to add 10 billion in costs(previously 5 billion).The company has 11,00012,000 non-full-time employees.While a portion of these costs will be offset by natural disaster rebound(+2.36 billion),gross profits from One Stop Service,an upward correction in service pricing,and reduced SG&A spending,we see risk of them combining with the slowdown in air freight to drive profits lower YoY.Company DataPrice()6,440Date Of Price 08-Feb-19Market Cap(bn)642.71Market Cap($bn)5.82Shares O/S(mn)10052-week Range()9,130-5,660TOPIX 1,539DPS()145.00Dividend Yield 2.3%ROE