J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-零售行业-澳大利亚零售业：在线增长支持Coles和Woolworths共享但选择了不同的实现模式-2019.11.11-21页 (2).pdfVIP免费

AsiaPacificEquityResearch11November2019RetailSectorOnlinegrowthtosupportColesandWoolworthsshare,butdifferentFulfillmentmodelschosenAustraliaAustralianConsumerSectorShaunCousinsAC(61-2)9003-8623shaun.r.cousins@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMACOUSINSJ.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimitedShalinJDoshi(91-22)6157-3036shalin.doshi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimited/J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedEuropeanMedia&InternetMarcusDiebel(4420)7742-4447marcus.diebel@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcSeepage16foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.www.jpmorganmarkets.comOnlineisagrowingsegmentofAustraliangroceryretail.ColesandWoolworthsenjoyhigheronlinesharevsoverallshareandthegrowthofonlineshouldsupporttheiroverallshare,althoughnotallisexpectedtobeincremental.OnlinegrowthisexpectedtoremainEBIT-margindilutiveforColesandWoolworths,whilethestorenetworksizeandstoresizetobeoptimised.ThepartnershipschosenbyColes(Ocado)andWoolworths(Takeoff)reflecttherespectiveexistingcapabilities.OcadoprovidesColesatotalsolution,aglobalnetworkandlowerpickingcostsviaits2CFCsyetColeshastransferredmuchcontrolovertoOcadoandsignificantchangeisunlikelyuntilFY23(advantageWoolworths).TakeoffMFCshavehigherpickcostsbutcomplementtheexistingvariedWoolworthsfulfillmentapproachandsupportingsamedaydeliveryasitisclosertothecustomer,whileWoolworthsretainscontrolofitsmoredevelopedonlineoffer.OnlinegroceryretailinAustralia.Onlineis~2-3%ofgroceryretailinAustraliaandisforecasttobe3.7%by2023(IGD).Yetthisestimatemarketsharecouldbeconservative,withgrowthrateshigh(30%and34%forColesandWoolworthsinFY19,respectively),anditalreadycomprising4.0%and4.5%ofsalesforColesandWoolworthsin1Q20,respectively.Onlinetoaugme...