www.jpmorganmarkets.comAsiaPacificEquityResearch01March2019EquityRatingsandPriceTargetsMktCapPriceRatingPriceTargetCompanyTicker($mn)CCYPriceCurPrevCurEndDatePrevEndDatePTGudangGaramTbkGGRMIJ11,712.52IDR85,400UWn/c78,000Dec-1961,000Jun-19PTHanjayaMandalaSampoernaTbkHMSPIJ31,506.38IDR3,800OWN4,900Dec-193,600Jun-19UnileverIndonesiaTbkUNVRIJ26,472.69IDR48,675Nn/c46,500Dec-1943,000Jun-19IndofoodINDFIJ4,427.81IDR7,075NOW8,000Dec-198,800Jun-19IndofoodCBPICBPIJ8,499.64IDR10,225UWOW9,050Dec-1910,200Jun-19Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,J.P.Morganestimates.n/c=nochange.Allpricesasof28Feb19.IndonesiaConsumerNotmuchintheshoppingbasketIndonesiaIndonesiaAutomotive&consumerBennyKurniawan,CFAAC(62-21)52918024benny.kurniawan@jpmorgan.comPTJ.P.MorganSekuritasIndonesiaJeanetteYutan(63-2)878-1188jeanette.g.yutan@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesPhilippines,Inc.AjayMirchandani(65)6882-2419ajay.mirchandani@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimitedUtkarshMehrotra(65)6882-1625utkarsh.mehrotra@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimitedSeepage60foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.WeassumecoverageonfiveIndonesianconsumerstockswithacautiousview.Webelievethatmostoftheexpectedimprovementinfundamentalsthisyearisalreadyintheprice,leavingpossibledownsiderisksfrompost-electionhardreformslikefuelprices/excisein2H19.Wereturntobottom-upstockpickingandseeonlyselectpocketsofopportunitiesinthesector,particularlyqualitynameswithundemandingvaluations.OuronlyOWisHMSP.WeareUWonICBP&GGRMandNeutralonUNVR&INDF.Expectelectionyeartoaidconsumercompanies’top-linegrowth.Consumercompanies’top-linegrowthhasdeceleratedto0.8xnominalGDPinthelastfouryearsvs1xhistorically,astoughermac...
