巴克莱-美股-石油与天然气行业-石油天然气勘探与产品：资本支出的削减计入了哪些因素？-2019.2.7-28页.pdfVIP免费

EquityResearch7February2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE23.E&PTopicDuJourMakeorBreakTimeforE&Ps;WhichCapexCutsArePricedin?AFundamentalLookWhat’sOnOurMinds:WehaveQ4earnings,2019outlooks,andpositivefeedbackloopsonourminds.CapitaldisciplinecontinuestodominatetheE&PnarrativeandisakeythemefortheQ4earningsseasonwhereincompanieswillinitiateorupdate2019prod’n/capexguidance.CapexbudgetreductionsaretheproxyfordisciplineandWPX’s2019updatedoutlookisagoodcasestudysinceitisahigh-qualitynamewithamorebalanceddebatebetweenprod’ngrowthvs.FCF.OnMondayWPXcut2019capexby23%(midpt)toalevelthatgetsclosertowithinCFat$50WTIwhilegrowingprod’nbyover20%yoy,whereasthepriorguidewouldhaveresultedinawideoutspendbutwithmoreprod’nmomentum.WPX’s5%outperformancevs.theXOPsincethecapexupdatesendsastrongpositivefeedbacklooptoinvestorsandE&Ps.Inthenear-term,thequestionsare‘whatotherE&Pswillreduce2019capexvs.priorexpectationsandisitalreadypricedin?’and‘arecapexreductionsenoughtoconvinceinvestorsthatE&Pcapitaldisciplinewilltranslatetobettersectorperformance?’.WhatWeDid:SeethenextparagraphforthelistofE&Psthatweanticipatewillreduce2019capex.TodetermineifthecapexcutsarepricedinwelookedatYTDstockpriceperformance(especiallygivenoutperformancebyperceivedlowerqualitynames),CFsensitivitytooilprices(CFOandEBITDAXmargins),shortinterest,and%oilhedged.What’stheConclusion?ForLargeCapsweanticipatethatAPA,DVN,andNBLwillreduce2019capexvs.priorguidance,andXEC/EOGcapexwillbemeaningfullylowerthanStreetConsensus(althoughmoreinlinewithbuysideexpectations;seewithinforasentimentcheck-in).YTDstockoutperformanceforAPA,DVN,NBL,andXEC,therecentcruderally,andtheperceivedbetarally...