巴黎银行-全球-债券市场-G10债券收益率预测：2019年Q2更新-20190311-7页.pdf

BNPP forecastForecast vs spotBNPP forecastForecast vs spotBNPP forecastForecast vs spotFrance3635-1 30-6 30-6 Italy240270+30220-20 200-40 Spain98130+3290-8 90-8 Dec-20Spot 10y spreads to GermanyJun-19Dec-19G10 INTEREST RATES Following the publication of the BNP Paribas Global Outlook for Q2 2019,Beige-ilocks Weak economy,strong carry,we have updated our yield forecasts.As we no longer expect the US Federal Reserve to hike rates further this year,we have lowered our Treasury yield forecasts.We have also lowered our end-year yield forecasts for Germany,the UK and Australia as a result of downward revisions to the European growth forecast,the likelihood that the BoE will now only hike rates once this year and as we expect the RBA to cut rates in 2019.Meanwhile,sovereign spreads are likely to tighten further,in our view,as a result of dovish central banks continued liquidity provision.FLASH|G10 Rates 11 March 2019 Please refer to important information at the end of this report G10 bond yield forecasts:Q2 2019 update 1 Laurence Mutkin,Global Head of G10 Rates Strategy BNP Paribas London Branch BNPP forecastForecast vs spotMarket-implied forwardForecast vs forwardBNPP forecastForecast vs spotMarket-implied forwardForecast vs forwardBNPP forecastForecast vs spotMarket-implied forwardForecast vs forwardFF*2.25-2.502.25-2.502.25-2.502.25-2.502y2.472.60+132.44+162.40-7 2.44-4 2.00-47 2.54-54 5y2.432.60+172.44+162.50+72.47+32.25-18 2.59-34 10y2.642.80+162.65+152.70+62.67+32.50-14 2.74-24 30y3.033.10+73.04+63.00-3 3.06-6 2.80-23 3.11-31 EONIA-0.36-0.35-0.35-0.35 2y-0.56-0.50+6-0.62+12-0.50+6-0.62+12-0.50+6-0.61+115y-0.37-0.25+12-0.36+11-0.25+12-0.32+7-0.20+17-0.21+110y0.060.30+240.11+190.30+240.19+110.40+340.31+930y0.721.00+280.75+251.00+280.78+221.00+280.83+17Call rate-0.03-0.10-0.10-0.20 2y-0.15-0.16-1-0.16-0-0.20-5-0.18-2-0.22-7-0.22-0 5y-0.15-0.15-0-0.16+1-0.18-3-0.17-1-0.20-5-0.18-2 10y-0.01 0.00+10.02-2-0.05-4 0.05-10-0.20-19 0.12-32 30y0.620.65+30.63+20.60-2 0.65-5 0.35-27 0.69-34 Bank Rate0.750.751.001.252y0.710.95+240.68+271.15+440.72+431.30+590.76+545y0.881.20+320.90+301.40+520.93+471.55+670.97+5810y1.161.50+341.29+211.70+541.38+321.85+691.53+3230y1.651.95+301.66+292.15+501.67+482.30+651.69+61Cash rate1.501.501.001.002y1.671.60-7 1.61-1 1.30-37 1.72-42 1.50-17 2.01-51 5y1.701.70-0 1.74-4 1.50-20 1.86-36 2.00+302.14-14 10y2.092.00-9 2.11-11 1.80-29 2.18-38 2.00-9 2.37-37 Spot 2s10s1720+321-1 30+1324+650+3320+3010s30s3930-9 39-9 30-9 39-9 30-9 37-7 2s5s10s-24-20+4-21+1-10+14-18+80+24-9+92s10s6280+1873+780+1881-1 90+2893-3 10s30s6670+464+670+459+1160-6 52+82s5s10s-25-30-5-21-9-30-5-21-9-30-5-13-17 2s10s1316+318-2 15+224-9 2-11 34-32 10s30s6365+261+465+259+655-8 56-1 2s5s10s-14-14-0-18+4-11+3-21+102+16-26+282s10s4555+1060-5 55+1066-11 55+1076-21 10s30s5045-5 37+845-5 29+1645-5 17+282s5s10s-11-5+6-17+12-5+6-24+19-5+6-35+302s10s4240-2 51-11 50+846+450+836+142s5s10s-36-20+16-24+4-10+26-18+850+86-11+61US-GER257250-7 254-4 240-17 249-9 210-47 242-32 AUD-US-55-80-25-54-26-90-35-50-40-50+5-37-13 Jun-19Dec-19RatesSpot USGERJGBUKDec-20AUDUSGERJGBUKAUDCurves and spreadsJun-19Dec-19Dec-20BNPP forecastForecast vs spotBNPP forecastForecast vs spotBNPP forecastForecast vs spotFrance0.420.65+230.60+180.70+28Italy2.473.00+532.50+32.40-7 Spain1.041.60+561.20+161.30+26Dec-2010yyieldJun-19Spot Dec-19 Legal Notice This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies(collectively“BNPP”);it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis,and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report.This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication.This document is not investment research for the 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