BNPPforecastForecastvsspotBNPPforecastForecastvsspotBNPPforecastForecastvsspotFrance3635-130-630-6Italy240270+30220-20200-40Spain98130+3290-890-8Dec-20Spot10yspreadstoGermanyJun-19Dec-19G10INTERESTRATESFollowingthepublicationoftheBNPParibasGlobalOutlookforQ22019,Beige-ilocks’…Weakeconomy,strongcarry,wehaveupdatedouryieldforecasts.AswenolongerexpecttheUSFederalReservetohikeratesfurtherthisyear,wehaveloweredourTreasuryyieldforecasts.Wehavealsoloweredourend-yearyieldforecastsforGermany,theUKandAustraliaasaresultofdownwardrevisionstotheEuropeangrowthforecast,thelikelihoodthattheBoEwillnowonlyhikeratesoncethisyearandasweexpecttheRBAtocutratesin2019.Meanwhile,sovereignspreadsarelikelytotightenfurther,inourview,asaresultofdovishcentralbanks’continuedliquidityprovision.FLASH|G10Rates11March2019PleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisreportG10bondyieldforecasts:Q22019update1LaurenceMutkin,GlobalHeadofG10RatesStrategyBNPParibasLondonBranchBNPPforecastForecastvsspotMarket-impliedforwardForecastvsforwardBNPPforecastForecastvsspotMarket-impliedforwardForecastvsforwardBNPPforecastForecastvsspotMarket-impliedforwardForecastvsforwardFF*2.25-2.502.25-2.502.25-2.502.25-2.502y2.472.60+132.44+162.40-72.44-42.00-472.54-545y2.432.60+172.44+162.50+72.47+32.25-182.59-3410y2.642.80+162.65+152.70+62.67+32.50-142.74-2430y3.033.10+73.04+63.00-33.06-62.80-233.11-31EONIA-0.36-0.35-0.35-0.352y-0.56-0.50+6-0.62+12-0.50+6-0.62+12-0.50+6-0.61+115y-0.37-0.25+12-0.36+11-0.25+12-0.32+7-0.20+17-0.21+110y0.060.30+240.11+190.30+240.19+110.40+340.31+930y0.721.00+280.75+251.00+280.78+221.00+280.83+17Callrate-0.03-0.10-0.10-0.202y-0.15-0.16-1-0.16-0-0.20-5-0.18-2-0.22-7-0.22-05y-0.15-0.15-0-0.16+1-0.18-3-0.17-1-0.20-5-0.18-210y-0.010.00+10.02-2-0.05-40.05-10-0.20-190.12-3230y0.620.65+30.63+20.60-20.65-50.35-270.69-34BankRate0.750.751.001.252y0.710.95+240.68+271.15+440.72+431.30+590.76+545y0.881.20+320.90+301.40+520.93+471.55+670.97+5810y1.161.50+341.29+211.70+541.38+321.85+691.53+3230y1.651.95+3...
