EquityResearch4January2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE20.U.S.BiopharmaceuticalsWhatToExpectNextWeekinSFFocusoncatalyst-richyearandoverallsentimentheadinginto2019.The2019healthcareconferenceseasonkicksoffnextweekinSanFrancisco,andweanticipatemuchofthecommentarytofocusonoverallexpectationslookingaheadtoFY2019givenwhatwe’dcharacterizeasatoughendto2018(NBI-9%;DRG+4%;S&P-6%).Broadlyspeaking,wethinkthegeneraltonewillbelargelyconservativeinlargecapBiopharmaafteranuninspiring3Q18andlowgrowthexpectations,thoughcouldbemorebullishinSMidcapBiotechgiventhepaceofinnovationpoisedtoacceleratethisyear.Inourview,themodestexpectationsandnegativesentimentheadingintotheyearsetthegroupupwellforamodestre-ratingin2019,andwemaintainourpositiveoutlookonthesector;seeThe2019OutlookGlobalPharmaOutlookandCompanyProfiles–AFocuson2019,bothpublishedon1/3/2019.Whilewedonotanticipateanymajordatadisclosuresattheconference,wecouldbeprovidedwithincrementalupdatesonthenumerouscatalystsexpectednear-termacrossbiotech(i.e.Gilead’sNASHprogram,Biogen’sAlzheimer’sassets,Celgene’sluspatercept/bb2121,Alexion’sUltomiris,andVertex’sCFfranchise).Potential4Q18pre-announcements:Unlikeinpastyears,Celgeneisnotexpectedtorelease2018financialresultsgivenwhatwascharacterizedonthe3Qearningscallas“tighttimelinesbetweenyear-endandtheconference”butwiththependingBristoldeal,itislessrelevant.Additionally,wesuspectRegeneroncouldannounce4Q18USEyleasales—weforecast$1.028Bvs.consensusat$1.035B—aswellassomeguidancemetrics(e.g.,unreimbursedR&D,SG&A,Sanofireimbursementofcommercializationexpensesandtaxrate).Lastly,wesuspectthatVertexcouldprovide4QCFsalesdetailsbutthemainfocusison...
