巴黎银行-欧洲-投资策略-公转私交易更看重价值-20190711-10页 (2).pdfVIP免费

Embarrassmentofriches,butfewtargets:GlobalprivateequityfirmstodaysitonarecordUSD2.44trninfundsatend-Q12019,accordingtofinancialdatafirmPreqin(Figure1),havingraisedacumulativeUSD4.8trnfrom2013to2018.But,accordingtomanagementconsultancyBain&Co.,theyarestrugglingtofindenoughtargetstoinvestthiscash.Buyoutvolumesup,butfarfrom2007highs:Thusfarin2019,globalbuyoutdealshavealreadyeclipsed2018invaluetermsatUSD260bn,butarefarfromtherecordUSD425bnhitattheheightofthelastleveragedbuyout(LBO)boomin2007(Figure2).Privatemarketvaluationsveryhigh:Justasthenumberofpublicly-listedcompanieshasshrunk,theprivatemarket’snetassetvaluehasgrowntoUSD5.8trngloballyasatend-2018,withprivateequitymorethanhalfofthistotal,accordingtomanagementconsultancyMcKinsey.Asaresult,privateequityvaluationshaveexpanded,withtheaveragedealdoneat11.1xEV/EBITDAin2018.Valuefactorcouldbenefit:Wethinkaboominpublic-to-privatedealsofthesortrecentlyseenwithMerlinEntertainments,BCAMarketplace,AxelSpringerandOsramLichtcouldonceagainproveapotentcatalystforthevaluefactor.Betweenthestartof2006andSeptember2007,whenLBOvolumesgrewsharply,theBNPParibasEquityValueEuropeindexrose46%,beatingtheSTOXXEuropebenchmarkby12%(Figure3overleaf).16/05/20191FOCUS|EUROPE11July2019KEYMESSAGESWethinkanaccelerationinpublictoprivatedealscouldleadtoanoutperformanceofvaluestocksandthoseattractivetobuyout.ConsiderournewEuropeanLBOcustombasketandtheBNPParibasEquityValueEuropeETF.Privateequityfirmshaverecord-highlevelsof'drypowder'toinvest,largelyinleveragedbuyoutfunds.Public-to-privateprivateequitydealshavestartedtoaccelerate,withMerlinandOsramannouncedrecently.Leveragedloans(yieldingonaverage4%)remaininhighdemand,giventheproliferationofnegative-yieldingsovereignbondsandcreditglobally.DuringthelastLBOboomin2006-07,theEuropevaluefactorgained46%andoutperformedthebenchmarkby12%,withLBOsprovingacatalyst.Fig.1:Recordamountofprivateequity'drypowder'EQUITY&DERIVATIVESTRADEIDEASBuytheBNPPEuropeanLBOcustombasket.BuyBNPPEquityValueEuropeETF(EVAEFP)Ref:EUR...