巴克莱-美股-航空航天与国防行业-美国报废飞机监测：油价下跌但废旧飞机市场稳定-2018.12.28-29页.pdf

Equity Research 28 December 2018 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 25.Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor Scraps Steady So Far Despite Drop in Oil Price We track commercial aircraft retirements(parks plus scraps)to estimate replacement demand as part of our supply-demand analysis and to monitor fleet dynamics that affect the aftermarket.Parks 17%lower YOY:We count 1,981 parked commercial aircraft in November,1%higher from October,but 17%lower YOY including 18%lower for parked narrowbodies,15%lower for widebodies,and 16%lower for regional jets(all YOY).We estimate that 7%of the installed base is now parked,much lower than the last several years as aircraft have continued to return from the park amid fleet growth.Mid-life aircraft(aged 11-20 years old)in particular have been recently returning from the park and account for 1/2 of the drawdown.Historically,periods that have seen a drawdown in mid-life aircraft from storage have correlated with strong aftermarket growth.Fewer parked RR 787s:Parked Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-powered 787s increased significantly after an airworthiness directive relating to compressor blades was issued in April.We count 30 parked Trent 787s(10%of the fleet),15 less than October.These aircraft are presumably parked pending inspection by Rolls-Royce.Scraps in line with historical average,forecasting slight increase:We count 669 scrapped commercial aircraft over the last 12 months,9%higher from the prior 12 months and equivalent to 2.4%of the installed base.We estimate adjusted scraps are running at 2.7%(adjusted higher for expected scraps reported after the fact),roughly in line with the historical average.As high levels of aircraft produced in the late 1990s/early 2000s begin to age into retirement,we forecast scraps increasing to 3%(on units)over the next several years,including widebodies at 3-4%and narrowbodies at 2-3%.Widebody net retirements decline,low retirements overall:Combining scraps and net parks,we estimate that 276 aircraft have left the active fleet over the past 12 months,equivalent to just 1.0%of the installed base,including 669 scrapped aircraft offset by 393 aircraft returning from the park.This is much lower compared to the normal 2-4%,primarily driven by aircraft returning from the park.Narrowbody removals are running particularly low at just 1.0%of installed base while widebody removals declined to 1.4%this month,both driven by aircraft returning from the park.INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S.Aerospace&Defense POSITIVE Unchanged U.S.Aerospace&Defense David Strauss+1 212 526 5580 BCI,US Matt Akers,CFA+1 212 526 9019 BCI,US Kate Copouls,CPA+1 212 526 3283 BCI,US Rubun Dey+1 212 526 9154 BCI,US Barclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 2 Barclays Parked and Scrapped Aircraft Monitor As part of our commercial aircraft supply-demand analysis,we monitor the number of commercial aircraft placed in storage and scrapped.Aircraft demand is driven by both traffic growth and replacement demand(scraps+net parks).We also monitor scraps and parks to assess overall fleet dynamics that affect the aftermarket.Total Leaving Fleet When combining scraps and net parks,we estimate that 276 aircraft have left the active fleet over the past 12 months,equivalent to just 1.0%of the installed base,including 669 scrapped aircraft offset by 393 aircraft returning from the park.This is much lower compared to the normal 2-4%,driven by high levels of aircraft returning from the park,with scraps roughly in line with the historical average.Excluding regional jets,we estimate removals are running slightly higher at 1.1%of the installed base,still significantly below the historical average.FIGURE 1 R12M Total Leaving Fleet Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research By aircraft type,we estimate narrowbody net removals have declined over the last year and are near historical lows at 1.0%of the installed base driven by 1.1%aircraft returning from the park(200 aircraft)with relatively normal scraps at 2.1%.Widebody removals declined to 1.4%this month driven by 1.3%aircraft returning from the park and scraps at 2.7%.Regional jet removals are also low at 0.2%of fleet,consisting of 3.1%scraps mostly offset by 2.9%coming out of the park.0%1%2%3%4%5%6%02004006008001,0001,200May-09Nov-09May-10Nov-10May-11Nov-11May-12Nov-12May-13Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-18%of Installed BaseLeaving FleetR12M Total Leaving%of Installed BaseBarclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 3 FIGURE 2 R12M Total Leaving Fleet Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research FIGURE 3 R12M Scraps%of Installed Base FIGURE 4 R12M Change in Parks%of Installed Base Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research By geography,we estimate that North America has the highest proportion of the installed base leaving the fleet(2.2%),followed by Latin America(1.8%),Middle East(0.8%),Asia(0.7%)and Europe with 0.7%of aircraft returning to the fleet.-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%May-09Nov-09May-10Nov-10May-11Nov-11May-12Nov-12May-13Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-18NarrowbodyWidebodyRegional Jet0%1%2%3%4%5%6%May-09Nov-09May-10Nov-10May-11Nov-11May-12Nov-12May-13Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-18NarrowbodyWidebodyRegional Jet-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%May-09Nov-09May-10Nov-10May-11Nov-11May-12Nov-12May-13Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-18NarrowbodyWidebodyRegional JetBarclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 4 FIGURE 5 R12M Total Leaving Fleet Region(#of Aircraft)FIGURE 6 R12M Total Leaving Fleet Region(%of Fleet)Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Parked Aircraft Summary We count 1,981 parked commercial aircraft in November,1%higher from October,but 17%lower YOY including 18%lower for parked narrowbodies,15%lower for widebodies and 16%lower for regional jets(all YOY).We estimate that 7%of the installed base is now parked,much lower than the last several years as aircraft have continued to return from the park amid fleet growth.FIGURE 7 Historical Parked Aircraft%of Installed Base Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research 56(47)31 13 183-100-50050100150200Asia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddle EastNorthAmerica0.7%-0.7%1.8%0.8%2.2%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%Asia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddle EastNorthAmerica6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%04008001,2001,6002,0002,4002,800Nov-07May-08Nov-08May-09Nov-09May-10Nov-10May-11Nov-11May-12Nov-12May-13Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-18%of Installed BaseTotal ParkedParked%of Installed BaseBarclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 5 We estimate the parked fleet as of November consisted of 881 narrowbodies(44%of total),437 widebodies(22%)and 663 regional jets(33%).Regional jets are parked at the highest rate at 15%of the installed base,followed by widebodies at 7%and narrowbodies at 5%.FIGURE 8 Parked Fleet By Class Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Scrapped Aircraft Summary We count 669 scrapped commercial aircraft over the last 12 months,9%higher from the prior 12 months and equivalent to 2.4%of the installed base,not far from the historical average 2.6%,although we note that scraps are often revised higher.FIGURE 9 R12M Scrapped Aircraft Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research We estimate that scraps(as a percentage of the installed base)are well correlated with the inflation adjusted oil price.We believe the recent drop in the oil price is therefore likely to result in some moderation in the scrap rate.m/mm/my/yy/y%fleet%fleetNov-18 Oct-18change%changeNov-17change%changeNov-18Nov-17Narrowbody881832496%1,070-189-18%5%6%Widebody437469-32-7%513-76-15%7%9%Regional Jet663666-30%791-128-16%15%19%Total1,9811,967141%2,374-393-17%7%9%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%0100200300400500600700800May-09Nov-09May-10Nov-10May-11Nov-11May-12Nov-12May-13Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-18%of Installed BaseTotal ScrappedR12M Scraps%of Installed BaseBarclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 6 FIGURE 10 Scraps%of Fleet vs.Oil Prices Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research.Note:Using WTI Crude prices.Parked Aircraft In Detail We count 393 fewer aircraft parked in November compared to the prior year(-17%).Mid-life aircraft(aged 11-20 years old)in particular have been recently returning from the park(-18%YOY)and account for 1/2 of the drawdown.Historically,periods that have seen a draw down in mid-life aircraft from storage have correlated with strong aftermarket growth.FIGURE 11 R12M Change in Net Parked Aircraft Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research$0$20$40$60$80$100$1201.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Dec-10Dec-11Dec-12Dec-13Dec-14Dec-15Dec-16Dec-17Dec-18Scraps%of FleetOil(2018 Dollars)-600-400-2000200400600800Nov-08Apr-09Sep-09Feb-10Jul-10Dec-10May-11Oct-11Mar-12Aug-12Jan-13Jun-13Nov-13Apr-14Sep-14Feb-15Jul-15Dec-15May-16Oct-16Mar-17Aug-17Jan-18Jun-18Nov-18Barclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 7 FIGURE 12 R12M Change in Net Parked Aircraft Aged 11-20 Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Of the 1,981 aircraft that are currently parked,34%have been parked for less than one year.Historically we have found that aircraft that have been parked for shorter periods have a higher likelihood of later returning to the in service fleet.Additionally,42%of short term parked aircraft are less than 15 years old,and we would expect these young aircraft to eventually return to the fleet.FIGURE 13 Parked Fleet Short Term vs.Long Term FIGURE 14 Short Term Parked Fleet Age Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Parked by Manufacturer We estimate that only 34%of parked Boeing aircraft are in-production models,compared to Airbus at 73%,and we estimate the average age of parked Boeing aircraft at 25 years,compared to Airbus at 15 years.We attribute Boeings higher share of parked aircraft(48%)to its higher proportion of out of production models and older fleet.-250-200-150-100-50050100150200Nov-10May-11Nov-11May-12Nov-12May-13Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-181 year66%0-55%6-1013%11-1524%16-2028%21-2510%26-3012%30+8%Barclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 8 FIGURE 15 Parked Fleet FIGURE 16 Parked Fleet Last Year Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Parked In and Out of Production We estimate that only 35%of the parked fleet consists of in-production models as a large portion of the parked fleet consists of old regional jets and jets manufactured by companies that no longer produce commercial jets.FIGURE 17 Parked Fleet by Production Status FIGURE 18 Parked Fleet By Production Status Last Year Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Airbus18%Boeing48%Bombardier14%Embraer14%Others6%Airbus19%Boeing47%Bombardier11%Embraer16%Others6%In Production35%Out of Production65%In Production35%Out of Production65%Barclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 9 While 7%of the installed base is in storage,only 3%of in production models are parked.FIGURE 19 Parked Fleet By Production Status Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research FIGURE 20 Recent Parked In Production Aircraft Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research m/mm/my/yy/y%fleet%fleetNov-18 Oct-18change%changeNov-17change%changeNov-18Nov-17In Production703705-20%826-123-15%3%4%Out of Production1,2781,262161%1,548-270-17%22%25%Total1,9811,967141%2,374-393-17%7%9%70173476078476973871966063960663279682683684886784182576067562561064270570301002003004005006007008009001,000Nov-16Dec-16Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-17Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Barclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 10 FIGURE 21 Parked In Production Fleet Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research m/mm/my/yy/y%fleet%fleetNov-18 Oct-18change%changeNov-17change%changeNov-18Nov-177379293-1-1%98-6-6%1%2%737 MAX000n/a4-4-100%0%8%7476772-5-7%99-32-32%16%22%7675859-1-2%69-11-16%8%9%7777175-4-5%80-9-11%5%5%7873651-15-29%1125227%5%2%A2201100%100%2%3%A320 Family1881672113%265-77-29%3%4%A320neo Family141318%212600%2%1%A3305354-1-2%70-17-24%4%5%A35034-1-25%4-1-25%1%3%A3802200%6-4-67%1%3%E170/1752220210%33-11-33%3%5%E190/1954143-2-5%45-4-9%6%7%CRJ7003228414%201260%10%6%CRJ900222115%18422%5%4%CRJ100012-1-50%100%2%2%Total703705-20%826-123-15%3%4%Barclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 11 We count 92 parked 737 NGs in November,1%lower from the prior month,and 6%lower from the prior year.FIGURE 22 Historical Parked 737 NGs FIGURE 23 Recent Parked 737 NGs Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research We count 188 parked A320ceos in November,13%higher from the prior month,but 29%lower from the prior year.FIGURE 24 Historical Parked A320ceos FIGURE 25 Recent Parked A320ceos Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research 26 80 37 52 30 28 40 76 104 86 98 92 020406080100120Nov-07Nov-08Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Nov-12Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-1898 87 92 90 96 96 83 80 71 75 82 93 92 020406080100120Nov-17Dec-17Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-1882 114 160 137 180 182 194 173 176 265 188 050100150200250300Nov-08Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Nov-12Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-18265 284 289 292 249 224 185 153 132 126 131 167 188 050100150200250300350Nov-17Dec-17Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Barclays|Parked&Scrapped Aircraft Monitor 28 December 2018 12 Of the 703 total parked in-production aircraft,we count 191(27%)that are 10 years old or younger,including 72(10%)that are five years or younger.For parked in-production narrowbodies,we estimate 76(26%)are 10 years old or younger,including 24(8%)that are five years or younger.FIGURE 26 Age Distribution of Parked In-Production A/C FIGURE 27 Age Distribution of Parked In-Production Narrowbodies Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Parked by Age Class We estimate that 29%of parked aircraft are aged 15 years or younger,equivalent to 552 aircraft,which we think are likely to come back into service.FIGURE 28 Parked Fleet FIGURE 29 Parked Fleet Last Year Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research Source:Flight Global and Barclays Research 015030