巴黎银行-欧洲-宏观策略-英国脱欧：第三次幸运？-20190314-7页.pdf

MARKET VIEW MARKET ECONOMICS|G10 INTEREST RATES|G10FX KEY MESSAGES After the latest Brexit votes in the UK parliament,we are where we expected to be at the end of this week,albeit along a fairly turbulent political path.We retain our long-held view that Article 50 will be extended,most likely for a short period,followed ultimately by a ratified deal.This weeks developments have reduced the probability of the UK leaving the EU without a deal,in our view,from about 25%to 20%but we expect plenty of political noise over the next few weeks.FLASH|EUROPE 14 March 2019 Unionist Party allies are softening their stance.But we also see reasons why the governments third attempt to push through the deal might fail.The government has promised that if the deal failsnext week,it will hold a set of indicative votes onvarious Brexit options on 25 March,at which point,the EU may have provided further information onthe conditions attached to any extension.SomeMPs might want to wait for this information.Some Eurosceptic MPs might be reconcilingthemselves to the deal based on hopes that theattorney general will change his legal advice toemphasise the UKs ability to invoke internationallaw to escape the controversial backstopprovisions relating to the UKIreland border.However,this would be likely to receive short shriftin the EU and be subject to legal disputes.Extend for what?We think the most likely outcome remains a deal and a two-to three-month extension.MPs could pass the deal on a fourth meaningfulvote if they cannot find a consensus for analternative route or if the EU poses unpalatableconditions on an extension(eg,its duration).If MPs do find a consensus for changes to thepolitical declaration(eg,a softer Brexit),that wouldalso require only a short extension.Failing that,we think a longer extension of Article 50 is more likely than no deal.Comments by EU Council President Donald Tusk suggest that the bar to a long extension is not that high.The probabilities,in our view,stand at 15%for revoking Article 50(unchanged from our previous assessment),65%for a Brexit deal(+5pp)and 20%for a no-deal Brexit(5pp).Paul Hollingsworth,UK Economist|Parisha Saimbi,G10 FX and Sterling Rates Strategist|BNP Paribas London Branch Please refer to important information at the end of this report Brexit Third time lucky?1 We view the overall outcome of this weeks votes consensus against a no-deal Brexit and a majority vote to extend Article 50 as positive for UK assets.Indeed,GBPUSD has risen by 2%on the week.Yet,while most of the routes ahead now look net positive,we still expect a bumpy path,especially if the deal fails to pass next week.The market has already shifted significantly to price out a no-deal Brexit.Our BNP Paribas FX positioning analysis shows short GBP positioning having unwound to+10 from 33 at the beginning of the year(on a+/50 scale),and the probability of a rate hike by end-2019 priced in by the rates markets has risen to 50%from 24%after the February Inflation Report.As this suggests markets may be vulnerable to any downside surprises,we do not yet see attractive risk/reward to enter structural long GBP or bearish UK rates outright positions.Over the medium term,if a deal is reached with a short extension,we maintain a bullish GBP view,expecting GBPUSD to rise to towards 1.45 and 10y gilt yields to rise to 1.70%both by year-end.Kicking the can:This weeks trilogy of Brexit votes delivered the result we expected:MPs voted against the negotiated deal,against no deal and for an extension of the Article 50 withdrawal process.An extension still requires the unanimous approval of EU member states,but we think public comments suggest that one is likely.Another so-called meaningful vote is scheduled before 20 March to determine whether MPs want to use the extension to ratify the negotiated UK withdrawal deal or for some other reason,with conditions to be dictated by the EU.Third time lucky?There is reason to think that the agreement would have a clearly higher chance of passing next week,as there have been signs that the Eurosceptic European Research Group of Conservative MPs and the minority governments Democratic Legal Notice This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies(collectively“BNPP”);it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis,and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report.This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication.This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II.It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of investment research,and is 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