巴黎银行-新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场资金流动：投资组合资金在6月份流入有所增加-20190701-7页 (2).pdf

|FOCUS 02/07/2019 1 FOCUS|EM 1 July 2019 EM Flows:Portfolio inflows pick up in June KEY MESSAGES Latest data from the Institute of International Finance(IIF)shows inflows to EMs totalled USD40.8bn in June 2019,with inflows into equities and debt totalling USD12.6bn and USD28.2bn,respectively.The trend was in line with our flow model projections.Our model suggests that there is room for EM portfolio flows to increase to USD55bn over the next three months.The pickup in inflows in Q1 and Q2 2019 has been one of the drivers of our more supportive EM outlook.Our analysis has shown a strong relationship between portfolio flows(on a 12-month rolling basis)and USD performance over the past two years.We also noticed signs of a reversal in the downtrend in 12-month cumulative flows,in line with the slight weakness of the US dollar on a trade-weighted basis.Please refer to important information,MAR Disclosure at the end of this report EM STRATEGY EM portfolio flow model We introduced a new model for portfolio flows into emerging markets in Q4 2018.Since then,the models projections have performed well.We have updated the model with Junes results and have conducted a new round of conditional projections for the next three months.The results show that there is room for EM portfolio inflows to increase to USD55bn over the next three months(see Fig.1-3).The models statistics are relatively strong,with an R of 60%.In addition,all variables have statistical significance with less than 1%in confidence level and no correlation between each other.According to the latest data from the Institute of International Finance(IIF),monthly inflows to EMs amounted to USD40.8bn in June.Of this,debt inflows totalled USD28.2bn,while equity inflows amounted to USD12.6bn.For further details on the methodology:Introducing a new model for EM portfolio flows;flows to the upside Fig.1-3:IIF EM portfolio flows vs BNP Paribas model(USDbn,Fig.3 USDtrn)Sources:Bloomberg,BNP Paribas;as of June 2019-40-20020406080Jan-15May-16Sep-17Jan-19EM Flows ModelIIF EM FlowsConditional projectionZoom0.00.71.42.12.83.5200720092011201420162018EM flow|cumulative USD trnEM flow model-80-50-201040702007200920112013201520172019EM Flows ModelIIF EM FlowsGabriel Gersztein,Global Head of Emerging Markets Strategy|Banco BNP Paribas Brasil Andre Digiacomo,EM/FX&IR Latin America Strategy|FOCUS 02/07/2019 2 We found a change in trend that showed a weaker US dollar TWI and an improvement in the 12-month cumulative EM portfolio flows(see Fig.4-7).Besides,we also found an increased appetite for risk with the main central banks having turned dovish,in line with our risk premium model.Equity inflows to EMs showed a strong recovery in June,increasing to USD12.6bn from a decline of USD14.3bn in May.In China,equities inflows also rose to USD10.8bn in June,from an outflow of USD11.6bn in May.Debt inflows were mainly concentrated in EM Asia and Latam USD18.3bn and USD5bn,respectively.Using the IIF database,we also collected data on portfolio flows into emerging markets and compared it with the performance of the US dollar on a trade-weighted basis.EM Flows:Portfolio inflows pick-up in June EM STRATEGY Fig.4-7:IIF EM portfolio flows and performance of the US dollar Sources:Bloomberg,BNP Paribas;as of June 2019 Gabriel Gersztein,Global Head of Emerging Markets Strategy|Banco BNP Paribas Brasil Andre Digiacomo,EM/FX&IR Latin America Strategy -10-4281420-50501502503504502009201120122013201520162017201912-month cumulative equity flows(USD bn)-55.512-month cumulative debt flows(USD bn)-203.512-month cumulative EM portfolio flows(USD bn)-259US dollar TWI,inverted yoy(rhs)-3.34-45555105155Jan-15Sep-15May-16Jan-17Sep-17May-18Jan-1912-month cumulative China equity flows(USD bn)12-month cumulative China bond flows(USD bn)-15-9-33915-252575125175201020122013201420162017201812-month cumulative Asia flows(USD bn)-165.512-month cumulative Latam flows(USD bn)-52.712-month cumulative CEEMEA flows(USD bn)-40.7US dollar TWI,inverted yoy(rhs)-3.340%25%50%75%100%201020122013201520162018201912-month cumulative debt flows to EM(%of total)12-month cumulative equity flows to EM(%of total)Legal Notice This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies(collectively“BNPP”);it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis,and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report.This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication.This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II.It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of investment research,and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.The content in this document/communication may also contain“Research”as defined under the MiFID II unbundling rules.If the document/communication contains Research,it is intended for those firms who are either in scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and have signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages,or firms that are out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and therefore not required to pay for Research under MiFID II.Please note that it is your firms responsibility to ensure that you do not view or use the Research content in this document if your firm has not signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages,except where your firm is out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules.STEER is a trade mark of BNPP.MARKETS 360 is a trade mark of BNP Paribas This document constitutes a marketing communication and has been prepared by BNPP for,and is directed at,(a)Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),and(b)where relevant,persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5)of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000(Financial Promotion)Order 2005,and at other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated(together“Relevant Persons”)under the regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons.Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this document or its content.Securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from,or are based on,public sources believed to be reliable,but there is no guarantee of the accuracy,completeness or fitness for any particular purpose of such information and such information may not have been independently verified by BNPP or by any person.None of BNPP,any of its subsidiary undertakings or affiliates or its members,directors,officers,agents or employees accepts any responsibility or liability whatsoever or makes any representation or warranty,express or implied,as to the accuracy and completeness of the information or any opinions based thereon and contained in this document and it should not be relied upon as such.This document does not constitute or form any part of any offer to sell or issue and is not a solicitation of any offer to purchase any financial instrument,nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of,or be relied on,in connection with any contract or investment decision.To the extent that any transaction is subsequently entered into between the recipient and BNPP,such transaction will be entered into upon such terms as may be agreed by the parties in the relevant documentation.Information and opinions contained in this document are published for the information of recipients,but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient,are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein.In providing this document,BNPP does not offer investment,financial,legal,tax or any other type of advice to,nor has any fiduciary duties towards,recipients.Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future performance,which may be better or worse than prior results.Any hypothetical,past performance simulations are the result of estimates made by BNPP,as of a given moment,on the basis of parameters,market conditions,and historical data selected by BNPP,and should not be used as guidance,in any way,of future performance.To the fullest extent permitted by law,no BNPP group company accepts any liability whatsoever(including in negligence)for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on material contained in this document even where advised of the possibility of such losses.All estimates and opinions included in this document are made as of the date of this document.Unless otherwise indicated in this document there is no intention to update this document.BNPP may make a market in,or may,as principal or agent,buy or sell securities of any issuer or person mentioned in this document or derivatives thereon.Prices,yields and other similar information included in this document are included for information purposes however numerous factors will affect market pricing at any particular time,such information may be subject to rapid change and there is no certainty that transactions could be executed at any specified price.BNPP may have a financial interest in any issuer or person mentioned in this document,including a long or short position in their securities and/or options,futures or other derivative instruments based thereon,or vice versa.BNPP,including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer,director or in an advisory capacity for any person mentioned in this document.BNPP may,from time to time,solicit,perform or have performed investment banking,underwriting or other services(including acting as adviser,manager,underwriter or lender)within the last 12 months for any person referred to in this document.BNPP may be a party to an agreement with any person relating to the production of this document.BNPP may to the extent permitted by law,have acted upon or used the information contained herein,or the analysis on which it was based,before the document was published.BNPP may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from or in relation to any person mentioned in this document.Any person mentioned in this document may have been provided with relevant sections of this document prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy.This document is for information purposes only and there is no assurance that a transaction(s)will be entered into on such indicative terms.Any indicative price(s)contained herein have been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and calculation methods and/or are based on or use available price sources where considered relevant.Indicative price(s)based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Numerous factors may affect the price(s),which may or may not be taken into account.Therefore,these indicative price(s)may vary significantly from indicative price(s)obtained from other sources or market participants.BNPP expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of its own internal models or calculation methods,the accuracy or reliability of any price sources used,any errors or omissions in computing or disseminating these indicative price(s),and for any use you make of the price(s)provided.The indicative price(s)do not represent(i)the actual terms on which a new transaction could be entered into,(ii)the actual terms on which any existing transactions could be unwound,(iii)the calculation or estimate of an amount that would be payable following an early termination of the transactions or(iv)the price(s)given to the transactions by BNPP in its own books of account for financial reporting,credit or risk management purposes.As an investment bank with a wide range of activities,BNPP may face conflicts of interest,which are resolved under applicable legal provisions and internal guidelines.You should be aware,however,that BNPP may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views expressed in this document,either for its own account or for the account of its clients.This document may contain certain performance data based on back-testing,i.e.simulations of performance of a strategy,index or assets as if it had actually existed during a defined period of time.To the extent any such performance data is included,the scenarios,simulations,development expectations and forecasts contained in this document are for illustrative purposes only.All estimates and opinions included in this document constitute the judgment of BNPP and its affiliates as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice.This type of information has inherent limitations which recipients must consider carefully.While the information has been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and other relevant sources,an analysis based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Unlike actual performance records,simulated performance returns or scenarios may not necessarily reflect certain market factors such as liquidity constraints,fees and transactions costs.Actual historical or back tested past performance does not constitute an indication of future results or performance.This document is only intended to generate discussion regarding particular products and investments and is subject to change or may be discontinued.We are willing to discuss it with you on the understanding that you have sufficient knowledge,experience and professional advice to understand and make your own independent evaluation of the merits and risk of the information and any proposed structures.The information contained herein is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as,a prospectus,an advertisement,a public offering,an offer to sell securities described herein,or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein,in Canada,the U.S.or any other province or territory nor shall it be deemed to provide investment,tax,accounting or other advice.Transactions involving the product(s)described in this document may involve a high degree of risk and the value of such transactions may be highly volatile.Such risks include,without limitation,risk of adverse or un