巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-墨西哥：近期Banxico没有降息预期-20190328-7页.pdf

TRADE IDEAThe market is already pricing around 40bp of rate cutsuntil the end of this year and 95bp until the end of nextyear.OurstrategyteamexpectsBanxicotobecomemoredovishamidstglobalgrowthdeceleration and the dovish stance of core centralbanks.This should benefit short-term Mexican rates,inour view.Our economists are calling for 50bp cuts untilthe end of this year and a 150bp cut for the wholecycle.We remain positioned in Mexican rates through1y1y TIIE and 10y TIIE receivers.MARKET ECONOMICS|EM STRATEGY|EM ECONOMICSKEY MESSAGESMexicos central bank on Thursday unanimouslyagreed to keep its reference rate at 8.25%.Banxicos overall tone did not depart much fromthat in February,although we did see hawkishfactors dominate dovish ones.However,we thinkthis is a central bank that wants to deliver a ratherbalanced tone at this point.We reiterate our call for no monetary policy ratecuts until Q4 as the list of inflation risks linked toevolving trends and events is still long.FLASH|LATAM28 March 2019Banxico on Thursday unanimously agreed to keeprates on hold,as widely expected.Overall,thecentralbankstonedidnotdepartmuchfromFebruary,althoughwedidseehawkishfactorsdominate dovish ones(see Fig.1 for BNPPs Banxicotone tracker).However,we think the intention of theBoard is to offer a balanced rhetoric.We think the central bank continues to be careful notto trigger rate cut expectations in the short-term,whileuncertainty remains at elevated levels.While the list of upside and downside inflationary riskshas remained the same as in the Q1 Quarterly Reportoverall tilted to the downside,we draw attention tothe fact that Banxico has highlighted that some of thefavourable shocks that had pushed non-core inflationlower have begun to revert.In contrast,the balance ofactivity has remained tilted to the upside,with noexplicit further deterioration.We reiterate our call for no rate cut to be deliveredin H1 against the backdrop of a rather long list ofupside inflation risks(see Mexico reality check:2019outlook update).We still expect Banxico to cut,butnot before Q4,when a wider(negative)output gapalong with hints of a gradual downtrend in coreinflation may make conditions more favourable forBanxico to begin its normalization cycle.Please refer to important information and MAR disclosures at the end of this reportMexico:No Banxico rate cuts around the cornerFig.2:BNPPs Banxico Policy TrackerSources:Banxico,BNP Paribas.Note:Each line in the communiqu is classified into three groups according to its implications and plotted in%of total lines.1|FLASHJoel Virgen Rojano,Mexico Economist|BNP Paribas Securities Corp.Andre Digiacomo,FX&IR Latin America Strategy|Banco BNP Paribas Brasil SA.6.757.007.257.507.758.008.258.500102030405060708090100JunAugSepNovDecFebAprMayJunAugOctNovDecFebMarHawkishNeutralDovishPolicy rate(RHS)201720182019Legal NoticeThis document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies(collectively“BNPP”);itdoes not purport to be an exhaustive analysis,and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and tradingwhich could affect the objectivity of this report.This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial ConductAuthority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),non-independent researchconstitutes a marketing communication.This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II.It has not been prepared inaccordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of investment research,and is not subject to any prohibition ondealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.The content in this document/communication may also contain“Research”as defined under the MiFID II unbundling rules.If thedocument/communication contains Research,it is intended for those firms who are either in scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and havesigned up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages,or firms that are out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and thereforenot required to pay for Research under MiFID II.Please note that it is your firms responsibility to ensure that you do not view or use theResearch content in this document if your firm has not signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages,except where your firmis out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules.STEER is a trade mark of BNPP.MARKETS 360 is a trade mark of BNP ParibasThis document constitutes a marketing communication and has been prepared by BNPP for,and is directed at,(a)Professional Clients and EligibleCounterparties as defined by the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),and(b)where relevant,persons who haveprofessional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5)of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000(Financial Promotion)Order 2005,and at other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated(together“Relevant Persons”)under the regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons.Any person whois not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this document or its content.Securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from,or are based on,public sources believed to be reliable,but there is noguarantee of the accuracy,completeness or fitness for any particular purpose of such information and such information may not have been independentlyverified by BNPP or by any person.None of BNPP,any of its subsidiary undertakings or affiliates or its members,directors,officers,agents or employeesaccepts any responsibility or liability whatsoever or makes any representation or warranty,express or implied,as to the accuracy and completeness of theinformation or any opinions based thereon and contained in this document and it should not be relied upon as such.This document does not constitute or form any part of any offer to sell or issue and is not a solicitation of any offer to purchase any financial instrument,norshall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of,or be relied on,in connection with any contract or investment decision.To the extentthat any transaction is subsequently entered into between the recipient and BNPP,such transaction will be entered into upon such terms as may be agreedby the parties in the relevant documentation.Information and opinions contained in this document are published for the information of recipients,but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken insubstitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient,are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluationof the instruments discussed herein.In providing this document,BNPP does not offer investment,financial,legal,tax or any other type of advice to,nor hasany fiduciary duties towards,recipients.Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future performance,which may be better or worse than priorresults.Any hypothetical,past performance simulations are the result of estimates made by BNPP,as of a given moment,on the basis of parameters,market conditions,and historical data selected by BNPP,and should not be used as guidance,in any way,of future performance.To the fullest extentpermitted by law,no BNPP group company accepts any liability whatsoever(including in negligence)for any direct or consequential loss arising from anyuse of or reliance on material contained in this document even where advised of the possibility of such losses.All estimates and opinions included in thisdocument are made as of the date of this document.Unless otherwise indicated in this document there is no intention to update this document.BNPP may make a market in,or may,as principal or agent,buy or sell securities of any issuer or person mentioned in this document or derivatives thereon.Prices,yields and other similar information included in this document are included for information purposes however numerous factors will affect marketpricing at any particular time,such information may be subject to rapid change and there is no certainty that transactions could be executed at any specifiedprice.BNPP may have a financial interest in any issuer or person mentioned in this document,including a long or short position in their securities and/or options,futures or other derivative instruments based thereon,or vice versa.BNPP,including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer,director or in an advisory capacity for any person mentioned in this document.BNPP may,from time to time,solicit,perform or have performed investmentbanking,underwriting or other services(including acting as adviser,manager,underwriter or lender)within the last 12 months for any person referred to inthis document.BNPP may be a party to an agreement with any person relating to the production of this document.BNPP may to the extent permitted bylaw,have acted upon or used the information contained herein,or the analysis on which it was based,before the document was published.BNPP mayreceive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from or in relation to any person mentioned in thisdocument.Any person mentioned in this document may have been provided with relevant sections of this document prior to its publication in order to verifyits factual accuracy.This document is for information purposes only and there is no assurance that a transaction(s)will be entered into on such indicative terms.Any indicativeprice(s)contained herein have been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and calculation methods and/or are based on oruse available price sources where considered relevant.Indicative price(s)based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Numerousfactors may affect the price(s),which may or may not be taken into account.Therefore,these indicative price(s)may vary significantly from indicativeprice(s)obtained from other sources or market participants.BNPP expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of its owninternal models or calculation methods,the accuracy or reliability of any price sources used,any errors or omissions in computing or disseminating theseindicative price(s),and for any use you make of the price(s)provided.The indicative price(s)do not represent(i)the actual terms on which a newtransaction could be entered into,(ii)the actual terms on which any existing transactions could be unwound,(iii)the calculation or estimate of an amountthat would be payable following an early termination of the transactions or(iv)the price(s)given to the transactions by BNPP in its own books of account forfinancial reporting,credit or risk management purposes.As an investment bank with a wide range of activities,BNPP may face conflicts of interest,whichare resolved under applicable legal provisions and internal guidelines.You should be aware,however,that BNPP may engage in transactions in a mannerinconsistent with the views expressed in this document,either for its own account or for the account of its clients.This document may contain certain performance data based on back-testing,i.e.simulations of performance of a strategy,index or assets as if it hadactually existed during a defined period of time.To the extent any such performance data is included,the scenarios,simulations,development expectationsand forecasts contained in this document are for illustrative purposes only.All estimates and opinions included in this document constitute the judgment ofBNPP and its affiliates as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice.This type of information has inherent limitations whichrecipients must consider carefully.While the information has been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and other relevantsources,an analysis based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Unlike actual performance records,simulated performancereturns or scenarios may not necessarily reflect certain market factors such as liquidity constraints,fees and transactions costs.Actual historical or backtested past performance does not constitute an indication of future results or performance.This document is only intended to generate discussion regarding particular products and investments and is subject to change or may be discontinued.Weare willing to discuss it with you on the understanding that you have sufficient knowledge,experience and professional advice to understand and make yourown independent evaluation of the merits and risk of the information and any proposed structures.The information contained herein is not and under nocircumstances is to be construed as,a prospectus,an advertisement,a public offering,an offer to sell securities described herein,or solicitation of an offerto buy securities described herein,in Canada,the U.S.or any other province or territory nor shall it be deemed to provide investment,tax,accounting orother advice.Transactions involving the product(s)described in this document may involve a high degree of risk and the value of such transactions may behighly volatile.Such risks include,without limitation,risk of adverse or unanticipated market developments,risk of counterparty or issuer default,risk ofadverse events involving any underlying reference obligation or entity and risk of illiquidity.In certain transactions,counterparties may lose their entireinvestment or incur an unlimited loss.The information relating to performance contained in this document is illustrative and no assurance is given that anyindicated returns,performance or results will be achieved.Moreover,past performance is not indicative of future results.Information herein is believedreliable but BNPP and its affiliates do not warrant or guarantee its completeness or accuracy.All information,terms and pricing set forth herein reflect ourjudgment at the date and time hereof and are subject to change without notice.In the event that we were to enter into a transaction with you,we will do soas principal(and not as agent or in any other capacity,including,without limitation,as your fiduciary,advisor or otherwise).Only in the event of a potentialtransaction will an offering document be prepared,in which case,you should refer to the prospectus or offering document relating to the above potentialtransaction which includes important information,including risk factors that relate to an investment in the product(s)described herein.Prior to transacting,you should ensure that you fully understand(either on your own