巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：大选追踪-20181231-42页.pdf

Please refer to important information at the end of this report ARGENTINA:ELECTION TRACKER DEEP DIVE|EMERGING MARKETS December 2018 Florencia Vazquez,Economist BNP Paribas Sucursal-Buenos Aires 2 MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES/COALITIONS 2 LINKS TO RECENT PUBLICATIONS 5 CONFIDENCE,POLITICAL IMAGE AND VOTING INTENTIONS 3 CURRENT COMPOSITION OF CONGRESS 4 2019 ELECTION CALENDAR AND PROCESS 1 INDEX NEW NEW 3 2019 ELECTION CALENDAR 1 2019 ELECTION CALENDAR1 4 10-Registry of pollster companies for the national primaries closes 19 Polls and electoral forecasts are banned August November 2019 24 Elections(2nd round for president)October June May 22 Deadline for formal appointment of pre-candidates to compete in the primaries Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas 1.Some dates are tentative and will be confirmed later.11 National Primaries(PASO)December 10 New President takes office July 12 Electoral campaign for the national primaries starts 27-Ballot locations are assigned and made public September 13-Formal invitation to the mandatory presidential debate 22 Electoral campaign for the general election starts 27 Official registry of voters is published 2 First day of electoral campaign on TV,radio and in newspapers 27 Elections (1st round for president and legislative)ELECTION PROCESS AND FEATURES 5 Presidential election-For a candidate to win the presidential election in the first round he/she needs to secure either:45%of the valid votes;or,at least 40%of the valid votes with a difference of at least 10pp versus the runner-up.-For all other outcome,a second round needs to take place.Legislative elections:They are held on the same date as the first round of the presidential election.In 2019,elections will be held for one-third of the Senate and half of the lower chamber.Primaries Primaries are mandatory.Any candidate who wins at least 1.5%of the valid votes in the primaries can contest in the election.PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS 6 WHICH:All provinces,excluding Corrientes and Santiago del Estero which had elections in 2017,will elect governors and local legislators.TIMING:Gubernatorial elections traditionally took place on the same day as the 1st round of the presidential election.But provinces can change the date at will(mostly based on political and tactical considerations).Provinces currently ruled by opposition governors are more likely to separate local elections from the national one.However,the local press has recently indicated the possibility of advancing elections in the province of Buenos Aires as well.Province Governor Senators Legislators Buenos Aires yes 23 46 CABA yes N/A 30 Catamarca yes 8 20 Chaco yes N/A 16 Chubut yes N/A 27 Crdoba yes N/A 70 Corrientes no 5 15 Entre Ros yes 17 34 Formosa yes N/A 15 Jujuy yes N/A 24 La Pampa yes N/A 30 La Rioja yes N/A 18 Province Governor Senators Legislators Mendoza yes 19 24 Misiones yes N/A 20 Neuqun yes N/A 35 Ro Negro yes N/A 46 S.del Estero no N/A 0 Salta yes 11 30 San Juan yes 0 36 San Luis yes 5 21 Santa Cruz yes 0 24 Santa Fe yes 19 50 T.del Fuego yes N/A 15 Tucumn yes N/A 49 Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:TENTATIVE CALENDAR 7 Most provinces have decided to separate local elections from the presidential election in 2019.The date for election in the province of Buenos Aires has not yet been announced,while several provincial election dates are still tentative.Province Governor Legislative Primaries Buenos Aires TBC CABA October 27 August 11 Catamarca March(TBD)No primary Chaco June(TBD)Chubut June 9 April 7 Crdoba May 12 February 24 Corrientes no TBC Entre Ros June 9 April 14 Formosa October 27 August 11 Jujuy TBC La Pampa May 19 February 17 La Rioja May(TBD)Province Governor Legislative Primaries Mendoza June(TBD)Misiones May(TBD)Neuqun March 10 Ro Negro June 9 S.Del Estero No elections this year No primaries Salta October 27 August 11 San Juan June 3 March 31 San Luis June(TBD)Santa Cruz Jun(TBD)Santa Fe June(TBD)April T.del Fuego May(TBD)Tucumn June(TBD)Sources:La Nacion,BNP Paribas NEW PARTY AFFILIATION OF PROVINCIAL GOVERNORS 8 After the 2015 election,the political party affiliation of the 23 provincial governors is as follows:Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas Party/coalition Number of governors Provinces Population(million)Cambiemos&provincial alliances 4 Buenos Aires,Corrientes,Jujuy and Mendoza 19.0 Frente para la Victoria(Peronist party)12 Catamarca,Chaco,Entre Ros,Formosa,La Rioja,Misiones,Salta,San Juan,Santa Cruz,T.del Fuego,Tucuman,S.del Estero 9.2 Compromiso Federal 1 San Luis 0.4 Progresistas 1 Santa Fe 3.2 Provincial alliances(no national front)5 Chubut,Crdoba,La Pampa,Neuqun,Ro Negro 5.3 PROVINCIAL RE-ELECTION RULES 9 Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas Re-election rules for governors:3 provinces allow INDEFINITE re-election:Catamarca,Formosa,Santa Cruz.2 provinces allow governors to be re-elected for two additional terms:Salta,San Juan.17 provinces allow governors to be re-elected for one additional term:Buenos Aires,CABA,Chaco,Chubut,Crdoba,Corrientes,Entre Ros,Jujuy,La Pampa,La Rioja,Misiones,Neuqun,Ro Negro,San Luis,S.del Estero,T.del Fuego,Tucumn.2 provinces allow governors to be re-elected but not for consecutive terms:Mendoza,Santa Fe.10 MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES AND COALITIONS 2 CAMBIEMOS 11 Centre-right coalition created in 2015 Likely candidate:President Macri Economic policies/philosophy:Since taking office in 2015,President Macri has liberalised the FX market,reduced subsidies on energy tariffs and implemented a gradual fiscal adjustment that had to be accelerated in 2018-19.The lack of market access since Q2 2018 prompted the government to secure a USD57bn package from the IMF.Seats in Congress:Senate:26/72.Lower chamber:108/257.Party leaders:M.Macri(PRO),A.Cornejo(UCR),Elisa Carri(CC-ARI),Mara Eugenia Vidal(PRO).FRENTE UNIDAD CIUDADANA 12 Left-wing coalition created after former President C.Kirchner finished her term(Peronist party spin-off)Likely candidate:Former President Cristina Kirchner Economic policies/philosophy:The motivation behind the party is to“unite the citizens to limit the power of President Mauricio Macri and to prevent the elimination of social rights approved(during the past administrations)”.Plans to propose that no legislator within the party will vote against the partys political agenda(unlike some Peronist legislators).Seats in Congress:Senate:9/72 Lower chamber:64/257 Party leader:Cristina Fernndez de Kirchner.Political parties:-Frente Amplio-Compromiso Federal-Kolina-Nuevo Encuentro-Partido de la Victoria PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA 13 Centre coalition Potential candidates:1.Roberto Lavagna 2.J.M.Urtubey 3.A.Rossi 4.S.Massa Economic policies/philosophy:Originally known as the Peronist party,it was founded by General Pern in 1946.Its current name was adopted in 1971.Since social justice has been the partys main goal,it has traditionally been close to labor unions and workers.It is the party with the largest number of affiliates(around 3.5 million in 2017).Seats in Congress:Senate:23/72.Lower chamber:37/257.Party leaders:Miguel Pichetto and Diego Bossio.14 CONFIDENCE,POLITICAL IMAGE AND VOTING INTENTIONS 3 CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENT 15 010203040506070Jan 02Jan 05Jan 08Jan 11Jan 14Jan 172015 presidentialelectionSources:UTDT,BNP Paribas VOTERS VIEWS ON FISCAL ADJUSTMENT 16 How voters view the fiscal adjustment proposed in the 2019 budget bill:81413759144619759810TotalCambiemos votersFPV votersGoodEvil but necessaryEvil and unnecessaryOtherSources:DAlessio IROL Berensztein,BNP Paribas POLITICAL LEADERS(CAMBIEMOS):POSITIVE IMAGE 17 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Apr 16Oct 16Apr 17Oct 17Apr 18Oct 18CarriMacriVidalSources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas POLITICAL LEADERS(CAMBIEMOS):NEGATIVE IMAGE 18 Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%Apr 16Oct 16Apr 17Oct 17Apr 18Oct 18CarriMacriVidal POLITICAL LEADERS(OPPOSITION):POSITIVE IMAGE 19 Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%Apr 16 Oct 16 Apr 17 Oct 17 Apr 18 Oct 18CFKLousteauMassaUrtubeyLavagnaRossi POLITICAL LEADERS(OPPOSITION):NEGATIVE IMAGE 20 Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Apr 16 Oct 16 Apr 17 Oct 17 Apr 18 Oct 18CFKLousteauMassaUrtubeyLavagnaRossi PRESIDENTS APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL RATINGS IN 2018 21 Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas 48 39 33 39 50 60 65 59 0102030405060708090100Jan-AprMay-AugSep-NovDecApprovesDisapprovesUncertainNEW PERONIST PARTY LEADERS AND THEIR IMAGE 22 Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas NEW Positive(1)Regular Negative(2)Dif(1)(2)Undecided R.Lavagna 39 26 14+26 21 C.Kirchner 35 18 46-11 2 D.Scioli 28 22 48-19 3 S.Massa 25 37 34-9 3 F.Sola 24 33 27-3 15 J.M.Urtubey 24 25 20+4 30 J.Schiaretti 19 24 12+7 44 M.A.Pichetto 10 33 31-20 26 HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE GENERAL SITUATION OF THE COUNTRY?23 Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas 22 13 9 11 39 32 27 31 38 54 64 58 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jan-AprMay-AugSep-NovDecWill improveSameWill worsenNEW HOW DO YOU SEE THE GENERAL SITUATION OF THE COUNTRY IN A YEAR?24 Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas NEW 42 37 36 38 20 19 18 21 35 40 42 39 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jan-AprMay-AugSep-NovDecWill improveUnchangedWill deteriorate ARGENTINAS MAIN PROBLEM 25 WHAT DO YOU THINK IS ARGENTINAS MAIN PROBLEM?Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas Poll date:3-14 December,2018.Cases:1000.Margin of error:+/-3.2%.NEW Economic Political/institutional Public safety Social%of total Economic issues:19 Unemployment:11 Inflation:10 Resource mismanagement:2 Indebtedness/IMF:2 Low wages:1 The Federal Government:9 Corruption:9 The ruling class:3 Lack of justice:1 Public safety:11 Drug traffic:1 Poverty:3 Education:3 Poor income distribution:1 Subsidies/social plans:1 Argentine way of thinking:1 VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:FIRST ROUND 26 VOTING PROSPECTS(%of total)Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas 29.32613.956.67.37.14.905101520253035 VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:SECOND ROUND 27 VOTING PROSPECTS(%of total)Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas 41.641.217.301020304050M.MacriCFKUndecided,blank,null VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:FIRST ROUND 28 WHO WOULD YOU LIKE TO BE ARGENTINAS NEXT PRESIDENT?Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas Poll date:3-14 December,2018.Cases:1000.Margin of error:+/-3.2%.%of votes M.Macri 22 M.E.Vidal 15 E.Carri 2 CAMBIEMOS total 39 C.Kirchner 24 A.Kicillof 5 A.Rossi 2 KIRCHNERISM total 31 S.Massa 12 J.M.Urtubey 5 M.A.Pichetto 1 PERONIST party total Other 5 Undecided 8 Total 100 NEW Mr Massa and Mr Urtubey have publicly expressed their intentions to run for president in 2019 29 CURRENT COMPOSITION OF CONGRESS 4 2017 LEGISLATIVE ELECTION(%of total votes)30 Sources:National Electoral Office,BNP Paribas Political party Lower chamber Senate Cambiemos 41.75%41.01%Unidad Ciudadana 22.51%33.33%Partido Justicialista 10.9%7.50%1 Pas 5.86%9.53%Unin por Crdoba 2.55%-Frente Cvico 1.56%-Frente de Izquierda(FIT)4.28%4.30%Frente Renovador 1.09%2.29%Evolucin 0.96%-CONGRESS COMPOSITION(NUMBER OF SEATS)31 Lower chamber Sources:National Electoral Office,BNP Paribas Senate Cambiemos Mrs Kirchners allies Peronist party Other PROVINCES:SEATS AT STAKE IN NATIONAL CONGRESS 32 Sources:Ministerio del Interior,Obras Pblicas y Vivienda,Observatorio Poltico Electoral,BNP Paribas PROVINCE SENATORS LEGISLATORS Buenos Aires 0 35 CABA 3 12 Catamarca 0 2 Chaco 3 3 Chubut 0 3 Crdoba 0 9 Corrientes 0 4 Entre Ros 3 4 Formosa 0 3 Jujuy 0 3 La Pampa 0 2 La Rioja 0 3 PROVINCE SENATORS LEGISLATORS Mendoza 0 5 Misiones 0 4 Neuquen 3 2 Rio Negro 3 3 Salta 3 4 San Juan 0 3 San Luis 0 2 Santa Cruz 0 2 Santa Fe 0 10 Sgo.Estero 3 4 T.del Fuego 3 3 Tucuman 0 5 PARTICIPATION RATIO(%of total votes)33 Sources:Poliarquia,BNP Paribas 86868582827876798160657075808590198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017PresidentialLegislative 34 LINKS TO RECENT PUBLICATIONS 6 RECENT ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY PUBLICATIONS 35 Argentina Squaring financing needs Colombia:External imbalances linger on Commodities and US Sensitive topics for Latam Emerging Markets 2019 Roadmap Brazil:Trade surplus supports balance of payments Brazil:2019 Roadmap Argentina:Financial outflows continue;new RR rules and end of Lebacs Mexicos Banxico:higher minimum wage,higher rate Brazils inflation report:Tightening can wait Colombias tax reform:Enough for now Disclaimer 36 This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies(collectively“BNPP”);it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis,and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report.This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication.This 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