EquityResearch25October2019FOCUSBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ThisresearchreporthasbeenpreparedinwholeorinpartbyequityresearchanalystsbasedoutsidetheUSwhoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE46.Restricted-InternalMigraineTheheadacheswillsoonbeoverOneofthenotabletherapeuticclassinnovationsofrecentyearshasbeenthediscoveryofthenovelCGRPofmedicationsformigraine:aclassrelevantforNovartisviaitssharedownershipoftheleadingasset(Aimovig)inthespacewithAmgenandnowLundbeckfollowingitsrecent$2bndealtoacquireAlderanditsasseteptinezumab.Inthisreport,wepresentadetailedreviewofthemigrainetherapeuticspaceandourproprietarymarketmodel(availableuponrequest).ForimplicationsforNovartis/Lundbeckpleaseseeourrespectiveseparatecompanynotesalsoouttoday,andwealsoincludesomeperspectivesfromBalajiPrasad,whocoversTeva/Allergan,respectiveownersoftwoadditionalkeyassetsinthespace.Wethinkmarketpotentialissignificant,notingtriptanspeakedat$2bndespiteCVcontraindicationandmodestefficacy,whilsttherapeuticBotoxsalesforchronicmigraineare>$1.5bn.Wemodelatotal$6bnlate2020sglobalCGRPclassopportunity($8bntotalmarket,includingBotox/Reyvow,ofwhich$5bnisintheUS),andsplittingc.25/45/30%acrossacute/episodic/chronicmigraine,respectively;weexpectCGRPmAbs/oralstocapture$4.4/1.6bn,respectively,withAimovigretainingclearleadershipbutnear-blockbusteropportunitiesforEmgality/Ajovy/eptinezumab.Wethinkthelatter’sinconvenientformulationandmodestepisodicdataiscompensatedforbyarguablybest-in-classchronicdata,longerdosingintervals(Q12W)andrapidonsetofaction,thoughweseealikelystiffbattlewithTeva’squarterlyAjovydosageahead.WethinktheacutemigraineopportunityfororalCGRPsandla...
