COREEquityResearch|BankBrief31January2019JasonM.Goldberg,CFA+12125268580jason.goldberg@barclays.comBCI,USCompleted:31-Jan-19,15:32GMTReleased:31-Jan-19,15:32GMTGuidanceGridPost4Q18BARCLAYSCLASSIFICATION:Restricted-ExternalBankBriefBonusForward-LookingStatementsfromthe4Q18EarningsSeasonBelowfindalistofforwardlookingdisclosureseachcompanymadeinits4Q18earningsrelease,slidedeckandconferencecall.Thiscouldassistyouinyourmodeling,reviewingtheupcomingForm10-K’sandwithmanagementmeetingsyoumayhaveduringthequarter.Wearealsoattachingafilethatsummarizesallofthisguidanceintoasimple3-pagegridwithaprintrangesset-up.NEWthisquarterwealsoaddedapagewitheachcompany’supdatedprofitabilitytargets.Simply‘click’directlybelowmynameintheupperleftcornerofthise-mail.Forourcompleteearningsreviewnotesclickthereporttitlesbelow.Wealsoincludedlinkstoourupdatedexcelmodels(clickonthetickerbelowthereviewreporttitles).Ourcompleteindustrywrap-up(4Q18Review&Outlook:PopJustified,MoretoComeDespite1QHeadwinds,1/29/19)includessummariesofeachcompany’sresultsbeginningonpage17.Comparingourcurrent2019compositeforecast(looksatthemedianbankundercoverage)totheonewepublishedimmediatelypriortothe4Q18earningsseason(see2019OUTLOOK-Past,Present&YettoCome:LessGoodDoesn’tMeanBad,BuyBanks,1/2/19),showssomechanges.Weexpectmodestlylowerrevenuegrowth(3%vs.4%)thenweentering2019,withalowerthanpreviouslyexpectedfeeincomebase.Westillexpectmodestbalancesheetgrowthandnetinterestmarginexpansionallowingnetinterestincomegrowthtooutpacefeeincomegrowth.Also,lowerthanpreviouslyexpectedexpensegrowth(mostbanksstilltargetingpositiveoperatingleveragethoughaidedbylackofDIFexpense)andactivesharerepurchaseshouldstillresultinhigh-singledigitEPSgrowthin2019.Thiscomesdespitea~25%increaseintheloanlossprovision.For2019,mostbanksguidedto:modestloangrowth(thoughbroad-based),stabletomodestlyhighernetinterestmargins(evenwithoutanyFedhikes),higherfeeincome,positiveoperatingleverage(aidedbylackofDIFsurcharge),higherloanlossprovisionfromhistorically...
