巴克莱-美股-农业行业-美国农业：2019年3月Ben的牛肉配额-2019.3.18-23页.pdf

Equity Research 18 March 2019 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 18.Restricted-Internal Americas Agribusiness BBQ Bens Beef Quotes:March 2019 Due to the US government shutdown and delayed data availability we decided to skip our February edition of BBQ.Now as data feeds have been updated,we are presenting our March edition of“BBQ Bens Beef Quotes”.As in the past we highlight important news,major trends in agri-product pricing,demand and trade data.We include eggs,poultry,pork,some lamb and veal its not all beef!News U.S.lawmakers debate over meat substitutes in fear of the threat it poses to the US$110bn U.S.meat market.Among many bills which have been presented regarding plant-based products,some without success,the latest bill proposes making it illegal to label meat alternatives/substitutes as meat.Following 25 recalls of millions of pounds of meat and processed foods,the USDA sets new guidelines for food companies.An increase in recalls of meat and poultry products drove the U.S.government to increase its regulatory requirements for the internal investigation processes as well as the way the companies receive and deal with client complaints around the topic.Prices&Feed Our outlook continues to be cautious considering ongoing uncertainty in some markets.Overall,while some metrics have shown improvements or maintain healthy growth,others remain under pressure given volatility and uncertainty.Chicken production still at positive growth rates,while turkey and red meat production had a weaker performance.Flattish slaughter rates and lower numbers of turkey eggs in incubators drove red meat and turkey productions contractions.Trade&USDA U.S.E.U.trade negotiations focus on agricultural issues.Key topics include UK markets bans of products including GMOs,hormone-boosted beef,and chlorine-cleaned chickens,among others.We expect to see an extensive agenda ahead.USDA takes action on food safety concern.Chicken and beef standards must improve in order to help the domestic market as well as to expand to other markets.Meat availability expected to further expand.USDA estimates for 2019 poultry and red meat per capita availability at 220.5mn lbs.(vs.218.8mn lbs.in 2018).Our Stocks Staying OW on TSN(Top Pick),PPC,JBS&BRFS;EW on HRL&SAFM and UW on MRFG.INDUSTRY UPDATE Americas Agribusiness NEUTRAL Unchanged Americas Agribusiness Benjamin M.Theurer+52 55 5241 3322 BBMX,Mexico Antonio Hernandez+52 55 5241 3323 BBMX,Mexico Barclays|Americas Agribusiness 18 March 2019 2 CONTENTS AMERICAS AGRIBUSINESS.3 News.3 Commodity trends.4 Price performance.5 EGGS AND POULTRY.6 Production&Capacity.6 Pricing.7 Feed-Price Ratios.10 Trade.11 RED MEAT.12 Production&Capacity.12 Pricing.14 Feed-Price Ratios.16 Trade.17 All prices are in U.S.dollars unless otherwise noted.PROTEIN CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS Poultry Chicken production generally maintained positive growth rates,while data for turkey was mixed.Egg production in January grew+4.7%y/y while egg-type chicks hatchings expanded 3.8%y/y.Weekly eggs-set at the start of March were up 2.5%y/y and chick placements grew 1.4%y/y(Figures 6-9).As for turkey,eggs in incubators for the month of March contracted 2.3%y/y and despite a lower number of placements during February,hatchings managed to post a positive 1.0%y/y growth.In terms of pricing,performance remained mixed for poultry products,yet mostly flattish on a y/y basis(Figures 14-17).The feed-price ratios for December(broilers,turkey and eggs)performed mixed compared to previous months yet were all fairly stable.In terms of trade during December,pressure on growth of exports remains evident as both value and volumes dropped on a y/y basis.Red Meat Commercial production of red meat decreased in December,as slaughter rates for both beef and pork were flat.Beef production fell 1.5%y/y in December,while pork production dropped 0.1%y/y on the back of flatting slaughter growth.During February,inventory levels for cattle on feed grew only 0.4%y/y,while figures reported for January cattle placements were down 5.3%y/y(Figures 36-38).Wholesale prices for beef were flattish during February while for pork price dropped significantly,-19.1%y/y(Figures 40-45)and retail prices were overall flattish for pork and mixed for beef.Feed ratios came down for both steers and heifers as well as for hogs on a q/q and y/y basis.As for trade,growth remained pressured in December for exports with a minor increase in imports.Barclays|Americas Agribusiness 18 March 2019 3 AMERICAS AGRIBUSINESS News U.S.lawmakers debate over meat substitutes in fear of the threat it poses to the US$110bn U.S.meat market.Among many bills which have been presented around the topic,some without success,the latest bill proposes making it illegal to label meat alternatives/substitutes as meat.This movement has about half-a-million meat-industry workers and more than 20 meat-producing states fearful of the impact this could cause,especially considering the 19%sales drop in cow milk in the past few years since non-dairy milks such as almond,soy and coconut milks became a popular alternative beverage,attributed to these being labeled as milk.As investigation progresses regarding plant-based and lab-grown meat alternatives as a response to the dire issues surrounding global warming,health issues,animal cruelty,among others,the battle between meat lovers and animal lovers(or simply more conscientious individuals)grows.As a key driver of climate change,taking up about 15%of greenhouse gas emissions,animal farming has many people,including scientists,vegans and environmentalists working towards greener alternatives.Though lab-grown meat is not yet being sold,it is well into its research and development stage to shortly follow the plant-based foods already available in the market and forecast to double to US$2.5bn by 2023 according to Euromonitor International.While the jury is still out on whether the labeling meat-substitute products as meat should be prohibited or not,we believe it is likely that the clean meat market will continue to grow as does the threat from our,presumably unsustainable,traditional animal meat option.(Source:Reuters,“U.S.lawmakers tuck into juicy debate over meat substitutes”March 14,2019)Following 25 recalls of millions of pounds of meat and processed foods,the USDA sets new guidelines for food companies.An increase in recalls of meat and poultry products drove the U.S.government to increase its regulatory requirements for the internal investigation processes as well as the way the companies receive and deal with client complaints.Companies including Tyson Foods Inc.,Smithfield Foods Inc.,Perdue Foods,and Pilgrims Pride Corp.,among others,have had to face recalls due to contaminated products possibly containing metal,plastic,wood or other foreign materials,which many people blame on the increase in automation in the food processing production lines.As food companies continue to work towards improving processes and quality,the new guideline from the U.S.government states companies must alert the USDA within 24 hours of receiving a customer complaint if its possible that contaminated products are in the marketplace.(Source:Reuters,“Exclusive:U.S.to issue meat company guidelines as recalls mount-official”March 4,2019)Half-a-million meat-industry workers and more than 20 meat-producing states threatened by meat alternative products being labeled meat.Concern on food-safety following many recalls of meat and poultry products has the USDA advising new guidelines to food processing companies.Barclays|Americas Agribusiness 18 March 2019 4 Commodity trends During February,daily corn and soybean prices grew on average 2.2%and-9.8%,respectively.Performance at the last day of the month had lower performance than last year,down 3.3%for corn and down 14.1%y/y for soybean,while for the month(start to finish)the contraction was-3.9%and-1.9%,respectively.By mid-March corn was at US$362 while soybean was at US$890 cents per bushel(Figures 1-4)and price performance was also down YTD at-3.8%and-0.6%,respectively.FIGURE 1 CBOT corn prices ended February down 3.3%y/y FIGURE 2 Actual corn prices through February 2018 and Forward Curve Source:Refinitiv,Barclays Research.Source:Refinitiv,Barclays Research FIGURE 3 Soybean prices ended February down 14.1%y/y FIGURE 4 Actual soybean prices through February 2018 and forward curve Source:Refinitiv,Barclays Research.Source:Refinitiv,Barclays Research -10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%330 340 350 360 370 380 390 US$c/bsh%YoY Growth,rightFor the month:-3.9%220 260 300 340 380 420 460 ActualFuture-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%840 860 880 900 920 940 US$c/bsh%YoY Growth,rightFor the month:-1.9%600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 ActualFutureBarclays|Americas Agribusiness 18 March 2019 5 Price performance During February,our covered meat companies remained generally below the S&P 500 and the IBOV,with some outliers as shown in Figure 5.By mid-March,performance for our covered companies on a YTD basis was generally positive highlighting the following:TSN(+22%),SAFM(+25%),PPC(+10%),and JBS(+41%)while in the case of BRF(-11%),MRFG(-9%)and HRL(-2%)growth was negative compared to the S&P 500(+2%)and IBOV(+12%).FIGURE 5 Americas Agribusiness price performance vs.S&P 500 Source:Refinitiv,Barclays Research 020406080100120140160TSNHRLSAFMBRFSPPCJBSMRFGS&P 500IBOVBarclays|Americas Agribusiness 18 March 2019 6 EGGS AND POULTRY Production&Capacity Total egg production in January grew 4.7%y/y while egg-type chick hatchings posted growth of 3.8%y/y.In January,egg production reached 9.4bn,up 4.7%y/y.In terms of hatchings,egg-type chick1 hatching grew 3.8%y/y and broiler-type chick hatching was slightly up 0.7%y/y.At the beginning of March,the total number of eggs set grew 2.5%y/y while chick placements grew 1.4%y/y(Figures 6-9).FIGURE 6 Total egg production grew 4.7%y/y in January to 9.4bn FIGURE 7 Egg-type chicks hatchings expanded 3.8%y/y in January Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Barclays Research.Latest data available is for January,2019.Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Barclays Research.Latest data available is for January,2019.FIGURE 8 Weekly eggs set up 2.5%y/y early March*FIGURE 9 Chick placements up 1.4%y/y early March*Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Barclays Research.*Latest data available.Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Barclays Research.*Latest data available.Overall,turkey eggs metrics continued to decline during February and March.Turkey placements in February dropped 2.6%y/y and number of eggs in incubators reported for March decreased 2.3%y/y;yet hatchings was up 1.0%y/y(Figures 10-12).1 Egg-type chicks are used for sole egg production in comparison to broiler-type eggs.-10%-5%0%5%10%15%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000Series1%y/y growth,rightin mn eggs-20%0%20%40%Broiler-Type Chicks HatchedEgg-Type Chicks Hatched%y/y growth-4%-2%0%2%4%6%200,000 210,000 220,000 230,000 240,000 Broiler-type eggs set,total%y/y growth,right000s eggsweekof-4%-2%0%2%4%160,000 170,000 180,000 190,000 200,000 Broiler-type chicks placed,total%y/y growth,right000s chicksweek ofBarclays|Americas Agribusiness 18 March 2019 7 FIGURE 10 Turkey eggs in incubators decreased 2.3%y/y in March FIGURE 11 Turkey hatchings was up 1.0%y/y in February Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Barclays Research.Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Barclays Research.Latest data available is for February,2019.FIGURE 12 Turkey poult placements in February dropped 2.3%y/y FIGURE 13 Turkey placements still below previous years performance Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Barclays Research.Latest data available is for February 2019.Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Barclays Research.Latest data available is for February 2019.Pricing The wholesale-retail price spread for broiler chicken grew 5.3%y/y while prices generally trended with positive growth;the spread reached 110.79 cents per retail pound(Figure 17).As for wholesale broiler prices in February,preliminary numbers(Figures 14 and 15)had slight changes but remain generally flattish with slight positive tendency.In the case of retail prices per poultry-type products(Figure 16),price growth was generally positive on a y/y basis.-20%-10%0%10%20%30%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000Turkey eggs in incubators%y/y growth,right000seggs-20%-10%0%10%20%30%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000Poults hatched-entire month%y/y growth,right000spoults-20%-10%0%10%20%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000Poults hatched-entire month%y/y growth,right000spoults18,00021,00024,00027,0002016201720182019000spoultsBarclays|Americas Agribusiness 18 March 2019 8 FIGURE 14 Broiler wholesale chicken prices slightly up in 2019 vs.2018 FIGURE 15 February*wholesale prices at positive and flattish growth Source:USDA,Economic Research Service,Barclays Research.*Latest available data.Source:USDA,Economic Research Service,Barclays Research.*Latest available data.FIGURE 16 Poultry retail prices a bit more positive in February*FIGURE 17 Broiler wholesale-retail price spread up 5.3%y/y in Feb.*Source:USDA,Economic Research Service,Barclays Research.*Latest available data.Source:USDA,Economic Research Service,Barclays Research.*Latest available data.Turkey wholesale prices in February remained overall flattish on a y/y basis(Figures 18).As shown in Figure 19,growth trend continues to gradually trend upwards.The retail-to-consumer price spread for turkey in February was 56 cents per pound(Figure 22).Wholesale prices for eggs remain flattish growth in February(see Figure 21).The combined regional(grade A large)wholesale price for eggs in February was 117 cents per dozen(Figures 20 and 21).On the other hand,the retail-to-consumer egg price spread in February was 44 cents per dozen(see Figure 23).91105117911091230100200Whole BirdBreast,bonelessBreast,Ribs onFeb-18Feb-19*US$c/lb.-35%-15%5%25%45%Breast,bonelessWhole BirdBreast,Ribs on%y/y Growth-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%Chicken,fresh wholeChicken,legs,bone-inChicken,boneless breastTurkey,frozen,whole%y/y Growth6080100120140Broilers,cents per retail Lb.Barclays|Americas Agribusiness 18 March 2019 9 FIGURE 18 Turkey wholesale prices above 2018 levels in Feb.*FIGURE 19 Wholesale turkey prices with positive growth in Feb.*Source:USDA,Economic Research Service,Barclays Resea