巴克莱-美股-金属与采矿业-北美金属与采矿业2018年Q4预览：重点监管风险-2019.1.21-49页.pdf

Equity Research 21 January 2019 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 43.North America Metals&Mining Q4 preview:Regulatory risks in focus Taxes and permits:While regulatory risks dont follow a quarterly schedule,they are important to the investment theses of many companies.As companies lay out their roadmaps for the year,we are interested to see how constructive management is on these ongoing issues.Africa remains a key region of focus regarding taxation and we may get an update on impacts/discussions in Zambia(FM,GOLD),Tanzania(GOLD),and Mauritania(KGC,and by extension FNV).In Latin America,Mexico has also become important to follow from a tax perspective,although details may still be lacking(GG and by extension NEM,AEM,FNV,WPM,RGLD).We arent expecting any changes on Argentina export taxes(AUY,GG,GOLD)that came into effect this year,but we may get an update on FMs efforts to replace Law 9 in Panama.In North America,the focus is largely on permitting where any promising details on progress of the Rosemont Section 404 Clean Water Act permit could be very meaningful to HBM.Further details on TECKs Elk Valley water compliance may also be forthcoming.Key guidance updates:We are most focused on guidance from GOLD given its new management,and FM(especially as it pertains to the outlook at Cobre Panama).HBM will also be important as we find out where Constancia production is headed while access to Pampacancha is delayed.Given extreme reactions to Tecks 2018 coal cost guidance in Q3/18 we are also interested to see where 2019 cost guidance comes out.We anticipate relatively stable outlooks from FCX,AEM,KGC,OGC,and AUY,and we already have guidance from NEM and LUN.We are uncertain whether GG will provide guidance on their asset portfolio prior to closing of the NEM/GG merger.Commodity prices:We have marked-to-market Q4/18 commodity prices and made modest changes to forecasts.We lowered our price forecasts by 4-11%for silver and 16-20%for nickel over the next 3yrs,while we raised coking coal 10%in 2020 to$165/t and 3%in 2021 to$155/t.We trimmed our copper price forecast by 6 in 2019 while our gold price forecasts are unchanged.Target bumps for TECK,OGC,AEM,FNV:We increase our target prices for TECK by 11%to C$42 on higher met coal prices;OGC by 13%to C$4.50 on higher multiples in line with peers;AEM by 8%to$42 on a higher NAV multiple for Meliadine as it is approaching production;and FNV by 6%to$74 as it benefits from improved operating profiles at Candelaria and Hemlo,and from higher palladium and oil&gas price forecasts.We have trimmed our EV/EBITDA target multiple at FCX from 7.0 x to 5.5x to offset the roll-effect of 2yr forward EBITDA which has now begun to capture the underground ramp-up at Grasberg and more appropriately reflects our caution with that transition.The remaining price targets in our coverage remain unchanged and we make no ratings changes.INDUSTRY UPDATE North America Metals&Mining POSITIVE Unchanged For a full list of our ratings,price target and earnings changes in this report,please see table on page 2.North America Metals&Mining Matthew Murphy,CFA+1 416 863 8963 BCCI,Canada David Hove,CFA+1 416 863 8935 BCCI,Canada Stefan Karolidis+1 416 863 8958 BCCI,Canada European Mining Ian Rossouw,CFA+44(0)20 3555 2620 Barclays,UK Barclays|North America Metals&Mining 21 January 2019 2 Summary of our Ratings,Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report(all changes are shown in bold)Company Rating Price Price Target EPS FY1(E)EPS FY2(E)Old New 18-Jan-19 Old New%Chg Old New%Chg Old New%Chg North America Metals&Mining Pos Pos Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.(AEM)OW OW 38.99 39.00 42.00 8 0.26 0.19-27 0.43 0.42-2 Barrick Gold Corp.(GOLD)OW OW 11.79 15.00 15.00-0.38 0.40 5 0.48 0.46-4 First Quantum(FM CN/FM.TO)OW OW 12.70 18.00 18.00-0.61 0.61-0.45 0.40-11 Franco-Nevada Corp.(FNV)OW OW 68.90 70.00 74.00 6 1.23 1.20-2 1.46 1.43-2 Freeport-McMoRan Inc.(FCX)UW UW 12.56 12.00 12.00-1.58 1.58-0.64 0.71 11 Goldcorp Inc.(GG)OW OW 10.37 13.00 13.00-0.04 0.04-0.33 0.33-Hudbay Minerals Inc.(HBM/HBM.TO)OW OW 7.50 8.00 8.00-0.40 0.38-5 0.34 0.23-32 Kinross Gold Corp.(KGC)OW OW 3.10 4.00 4.00-0.09 0.09-0.11 0.11-Lundin Mining Corp.(LUN/LUN.TO)OW OW 5.96 8.00 8.00-0.26 0.24-8 0.16 0.12-25 Newmont Mining Corp.(NEM)OW OW 31.77 33.00 33.00-1.19 1.18-1 0.78 0.78-OceanaGold Corp.(OGC/OGC.TO)EW EW 4.44 4.00 4.50 13 0.19 0.20 5 0.13 0.13-Royal Gold Inc.(RGLD)EW EW 82.37 77.00 77.00-1.46 1.33-9 2.20 2.13-3 Teck Resources Ltd.(TECK/B)OW OW 30.63 38.00 42.00 11 4.04 4.26 5 3.49 3.64 4 Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.(WPM)OW OW 19.01 22.00 22.00-0.50 0.50-0.55 0.53-4 Yamana Gold Inc.(AUY)UW UW 2.31 2.50 2.50-0.08 0.08-0.10 0.10-Source:Barclays Research.Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency.FY1(E):Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.FY2(E):Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.Stock Rating:OW:Overweight;EW:Equal Weight;UW:Underweight;RS:Rating Suspended Industry View:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:Negative Barclays|North America Metals&Mining 21 January 2019 3 Q4/18 earnings preview Our quarterly estimates are generally in close proximity to consensus.With a number of production results already released,much of our focus will be on guidance and regulatory updates,where applicable.FIGURE 1 North American Metals&Mining Q4/18 earnings calendar in order of reporting Source:Company reports,Barclays Research.*Estimates are for F2Q19E to reflect RGLDs fiscal year reporting.Key guidance updates We are most focused on guidance from GOLD given its new management(as we wrote in our launch report(Phase 2 of the Turnaround Begins;Initiate at Overweight,9/1/19),we see“sandbagging”risks as minor).Also important is guidance from FM,especially as it pertains to the outlook at Cobre Panama in its freshman year.Additionally,we are interested to see how the Kansanshi production profile holds up over the 3yr outlook.HBM will also be important as we find out where Constancia production is headed while access to Pampacancha remains delayed.Given extreme reactions to Tecks coking coal costs in Q3/18 we are also interested to see where 2019 cost guidance comes out.We anticipate a relatively stable outlook from FCX,AEM,KGC,OGC,and AUY,and we already have guidance from NEM and LUN.For GG,we are uncertain as to whether or not guidance will be provided on their assets;GG stood-out from competitors due to its robust growth profile,but delivery on that profile was a key investor concern post-Q3.Further details by company can be found on pages 8 to 37.Taxes and permits While regulatory risks dont follow a quarterly schedule,they are sufficiently important to the investment theses of many companies with updates likely to be meaningful to stock performance.Africa remains a key region of focus regarding taxation and we may get an update on impacts/discussions in Zambia(FM,GOLD),Tanzania(GOLD),and Mauritania(KGC,FNV).In Latin America,Mexico has also become important to follow from a tax Company4Q18E EPS est.4Q18E EBITDA est.ReportingReporting Call CallConferenceBarclaysConsensus BarclaysConsensusDateTimeDateTime(EST)Call DetailsFCX$0.18$0.19$1,041$1,12924-JanBefore Market24-Jan10:00 AMTBARGLD*$0.31$0.33$74$8706-FebAfter Market07-Feb12:00 PMCdn:1-855-669-9657US:1-855-209-8260Int:1-412-542-4106TECK$1.02$1.10$1,400$1,49013-FebBefore Market13-Feb11:00 AMNA:1-888-394-8218Int:1-647-484-0475GOLD$0.11$0.09$823$71213-FebBefore Market13-Feb11:00 AMNA:1-800-319-4610UK:0-808-101-2791Int:1-416-915-3239KGC$0.00($0.00)$237$22513-FebAfter Market14-Feb8:00 AMTBALUN$0.02$0.04$114$14814-FebAfter Market15-Feb8:00 AMNA:1-877-648-7976Int:1-617-826-1698AUY$0.02$0.02$193$19014-FebAfter Market15-Feb9:00 AMNA:1-800-273-9672Int:1-416-340-2216AEM$0.03$0.03$175$17614-FebAfter Market15-Feb11:00 AMNA:1-888-231-8191Int:1-647-427-7450NEM$0.24$0.25$630$61021-FebBefore Market21-Feb10:00 AMNA:1-855-209-8210Int:1-416-317-5213OGC$0.04$0.04$82$88TBATBATBATBATBAFM$0.17$0.19$469$432TBATBATBATBATBAFNV$0.28$0.26$132$126TBATBATBATBATBAGG$0.03$0.02$394$322TBATBATBATBATBAHBM$0.04$0.01$110$110TBATBATBATBATBAWPM$0.10$0.07$116$120TBATBATBATBATBABarclays|North America Metals&Mining 21 January 2019 4 perspective,although details may still be lacking(GG and by extension NEM,AEM,FNV,WPM,RGLD).We arent expecting any changes on Argentina export taxes(AUY,GG,GOLD)that came into effect this year,but we may get an update on FMs efforts to replace Law 9 in Panama.In North America,the focus is largely on permitting where any promising details on progress of the Rosemont Section 404 Clean Water Act permit with the United States Army Corps of Engineers(USACE)could be very meaningful to HBM.Further details on TECKs Elk Valley water compliance may also be forthcoming.Commodity prices We have marked Q4/18 commodity prices to market and made modest changes to our near-term forecasts.We lower our price forecasts by 4-11%for silver and 16-20%for nickel over the next 3yrs,while we raise coking coal 10%in 2020 to$165/t and 3%in 2021 to$155/t.We lower our oil price forecasts in the near-term and lift long-term to match our energy teams latest estimates.We tweak the copper price downward by 6 in 2019 while our gold price forecasts are unchanged.Our platinum price has been lowered while palladium price has been increased.Figure 2 below shows changes to our commodity and exchange rate forecasts.FIGURE 2 Barclays commodity price forecast and changes Source:Barclays Research Commodity and Currency Assumptions2019E2020ELTOldNew%chgOldNew%chgOldNew%chgSpotspot v 19ECommoditiesGold$/oz1,2691,2690%1,3001,3000%1,3501,3500%1,2831%Silver$/oz16.0015.40-4%18.0016.00-11%18.0018.000%15.370%Copper$/lb2.842.78-2%2.952.950%3.103.100%2.71-3%Zinc$/lb1.251.20-4%1.251.21-3%1.201.200%1.16-3%Nickel$/lb6.605.25-20%7.005.88-16%7.007.000%5.260%Cobalt$/lb30.0021.50-28%35.0023.25-34%30.0030.000%18.14-16%Platinum$/oz888844-5%938875-7%1,050900-14%799-5%Palladium$/oz1,0131,29428%1,0631,32525%1,0501,25019%1,3817%Hard coking coal(Australia FOB)$/t1751803%15016510%1501500%1958%Thermal coal(Newcastle)$/t90967%80889%65650%65-32%Oil(Brent)$/bbl7060-14%65650%65708%658%Natural gas(Henry Hub)$/mmbtu3.002.88-4%3.002.66-12%3.003.000%3.004%CurrenciesCanadian DollarC$/US$1.321.363%1.321.363%1.321.363%1.33-2%EuroUS$/1.161.15-1%1.161.15-1%1.161.15-1%1.14-1%Braziliean RealBRL/US$3.883.880%3.883.880%3.883.880%3.75-3%Chilean PesoCLP/US$6556956%6556956%6556956%671-3%Australian DollarUS$/A$0.740.70-5%0.740.70-5%0.740.70-5%0.722%RandR/US$13.5014.356%13.5014.356%13.5014.356%13.83-4%Barclays|North America Metals&Mining 21 January 2019 5 Key changes to EPS and EBITDA forecasts In addition to modest changes to our price deck,we also made other minor updates to our models including adjustments for recent guidance or production results.Key changes to estimates are shown in Figure 3 below.Our latest comps are shown at the end of this report.FIGURE 3 Key metric changes Source:Barclays Research,Refinitiv Consensus Note:RGLDs(June FYE)estimates are for FY2019-2021E.2018E EBITDA($M)2019E EBITDA($M)2020E EBITDA($M)PreviousNew%changeConsensusPreviousNew%changeConsensusPreviousNew%changeConsensusPrecious MetalsAEM$770$749-3%$757$879$8760%$936$1,108$1,100-1%$1,214GOLD$2,936$3,0253%$2,959$3,855$3,753-3%$3,456$3,922$3,710-5%$3,471GG$1,398$1,3980%$1,232$1,978$1,9780%$1,831$2,218$2,2180%$2,067KGC$986$1,0001%$1,029$1,168$1,1660%$1,089$1,287$1,2800%$1,122NEM$2,461$2,4550%$2,274$2,448$2,4480%$2,520$2,359$2,3590%$2,364OGC$355$3673%$374$324$3230%$351$371$3700%$361AUY$689$7052%$597$680$6780%$748$802$777-3%$857Royalties&StreamersFNV$538$533-1%$519$644$640-1%$587$739$731-1%$641RGLD$325$307-6%$328$373$365-2%$360$383$377-1%$375WPM$505$501-1%$539$566$555-2%$542$621$578-7%$583Base MetalsFM$1,713$1,7251%$1,687$1,743$1,685-3%$2,188$2,424$2,405-1%$3,055FCX$6,782$6,7750%$6,813$3,548$3,6944%$4,181$3,961$4,1635%$5,150HBM$613$605-1%$582$530$484-9%$500$639$600-6%$581LUN$618$604-2%$650$560$517-8%$698$865$840-3%$960TECKC$6,217C$6,4223%C$5,861C$4,999C$5,1914%C$5,209C$4,329C$4,91313%C$4,7032018E EPS($/sh)2019E EPS($/sh)2020E EPS($/sh)PreviousNew%changeConsensusPreviousNew%changeConsensusPreviousNew%changeConsensusPrecious MetalsAEM$0.26$0.19-28%$0.19$0.43$0.42-2%$0.63$0.62$0.60-3%$1.19GOLD$0.38$0.405%$0.40$0.48$0.46-5%$0.46$0.49$0.47-6%$0.50GG$0.04$0.040%$0.10$0.33$0.330%$0.38$0.40$0.400%$0.48KGC$0.09$0.098%$0.08$0.11$0.11-1%$0.10$0.16$0.16-1%$0.12NEM$1.19$1.18-1%$1.19$0.78$0.780%$1.23$0.99$0.990%$1.25OGC$0.19$0.207%$0.22$0.13$0.130%$0.18$0.17$0.17-1%$0.20AUY$0.08$0.085%$0.10$0.10$0.101%$0.13$0.19$0.18-6%$0.19Royalties&StreamersFNV$1.23$1.20-2%$1.16$1.46$1.43-2%$1.29$1.72$1.68-2%$1.47RGLD$1.46$1.33-9%$1.64$2.20$2.13-3%$2.23$2.46$2.41-2%$2.25WPM$0.50$0.500%$0.47$0.55$0.53-4%$0.53$0.68$0.58-15%$0.62Base MetalsFM$0.61$0.611%$0.63$0.45$0.40-11%$0.89$0.53$0.52-3%$1.48FCX$1.58$1.580%$1.62$0.64$0.7110%$0.77$0.83$0.9413%$1.11HBM$0.40$0.38-5%$0.35$0.34$0.23-32%$0.31$0.53$0.44-18%$0.57LUN$0.26$0.24-6%$0.27$0.16$0.12-22%$0.30$0.36$0.34-6%$0.53TECKC$4.04C$4.265%C$4.48C$3.49C$3.644%C$3.90C$2.69C$3.2822%C$3.34Barclays|North America Metals&Mining 21 January 2019 6 Key changes to price targets For TECK we increase our price target 11%to C$42(from C$38)as it benefited from our bump to coking coal prices.Despite a pullback in coking coal to start 2019,prices remain robust and forward EBITDA(2019)is an attractive C$5 billion.Our valuation multiples are unchanged for TECK.We increase our AEM price target by 8%to$42(from$39)as we now apply a higher NAV multiple(1.4x from 1.0 x)to Meliadine in-line with producing assets as it approaches completion.We raise our target for OGC by 13%to C$4.50(from C$4.00)as we increase our target multiples from 1.1x to 1.2x P/NAV and from 5.0 to 6.0 x EV/EBITDA to reflect the companys strong execution to-date and expectations of potential mine life extensions in New Zealand and to more closely align with peer multiples.Our target for FNV increases by 6%to$74(from$70)on the back of improved operating profiles at underlying assets(Hemlo,Candelaria)and higher commodity price forecasts(oil&gas,and palladium).Our valuation multiples are unchanged for FNV.We have trimmed our EV/EBITDA target multiple at FCX from 7.0 x to 5.5x to offset the roll-effect of 2yr forward EBITDA which has now begun to capture the underground ramp-up at Grasberg and more appropriately refle