巴黎银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-聚焦全球：石油价格预测和石油平衡-20190815-10页.pdf

|FOCUS 15/08/2019 1 Source:Bloomberg,Platts and BNP Paribas*Conversion factors for Europe products:8.33 for gasoline and 7.45 for gasoil.US conversion factors 42 gallons to a barrel.*Note that forecasted annual averages are those at the time of publication and are not amended as and when realised quarterly averages are updated in the table.COMMODITIES FOCUS|Global 15 August 2019 Please refer to important information and MAR disclosures at the end of this report Harry Tchilinguirian,Economist Oil|BNP Paribas London Branch OIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCE Table 1:Recent price trends Table 2:BNP Paribas(period average)price forecasts*Price forecastIssue Date2018Q1 Q2 Q3 fQ4 f2019 fQ1 fQ2 fQ3 fQ4 f2020 fNYMEX WTI(USD/bbl)15/08/1964.8154.7559.995550554850525451ICE Brent(USD/bbl)15/08/1971.5963.6968.566155625253545754Dubai(USD/bbl)15/08/1969.4263.2067.636154615152535553NYMEX RBOB(USD/bbl)15/08/1980.4866.3481.427360705770736767Eurobob(USD/bbl)15/08/1978.8764.2879.647359695467726565SGP Prem Unl(USD/bbl)15/08/1980.2067.1875.127163695963676463NYMEX Heating Oil(USD/bbl)15/08/1987.9681.1483.457977807774727174ICE Gasoil(USD/bbl)15/08/1985.6879.1182.067774787471697071SGP Gasoil 0.05%(USD/bbl)15/08/1984.0675.8779.977674767370686770USG 3%FO Waterborne(USD/bbl)15/08/1961.4061.0461.264935522933374035NWE 3%HSFO(USD/bbl)15/08/1959.1455.4558.234936503034394337SGP 180 cst(USD/bbl)15/08/1967.0063.9565.216045593638445042NYMEX RBOB(US/gal)15/08/19191.62157.95193.86174143167136167174160160Eurobob(USD/Tonne)15/08/19656.99535.47663.43608491575450558600541541NYMEX Heating Oil(US/gal)15/08/19209.43193.19198.69188183190183176171169176ICE Gasoil(USD/Tonne)15/08/19638.32589.37611.35574551581551529514522529Prev.ClosePrev.Close vs.1 Jan 2019Prev.Close vs.2 Jan 201814 Aug 1914 Jul 1916 Jun 19Change%Change01 Jan 19Change%Change01 Jan 18NYMEX WTI(USD/bbl)55.23 60.21 52.51 8.6918.7%46.54-5.14-8.5%60.37ICE Brent(USD/bbl)58.99 67.00 62.04 4.317.9%54.68-7.56-11.4%66.55Dubai(USD/bbl)59.63 65.86 59.89 7.7815.0%51.85-4.73-7.3%64.36NYMEX RBOB(USD/bbl)70.38 83.03 72.77 14.7026.4%55.68-3.67-5.0%74.05Eurobob(USD/bbl)69.87 79.65 71.61 12.8522.5%57.02-3.12-4.3%72.99SGP Unl(USD/bbl)71.43 78.60 65.82 16.4730.0%54.96-5.06-6.6%76.49NYMEX Heating Oil(USD/bbl)77.44 83.16 76.83 6.018.4%71.43-9.01-10.4%86.45ICE Gasoil(USD/bbl)75.97 81.61 75.67 7.7811.4%68.19-4.30-5.4%80.27SGP Gasoil(USD/bbl)75.95 80.35 72.56 14.3523.3%61.60-2.77-3.5%78.72USG 3%FO Waterborne(USD/bbl)41.20 60.35 53.08-8.63-17.3%49.83-14.78-26.4%55.98NWE 3%HSFO(USD/bbl)38.62 59.84 51.34-5.98-13.4%44.61-15.08-28.1%53.70SGP 180 cst(USD/bbl)52.89 72.40 57.79 1.352.6%51.54-6.78-11.4%59.66NYMEX RBOB(US/gal)167.57 197.69 173.26 35.0026.4%132.57-8.74-5.0%176.31Eurobob(USD/tonne)582.00 663.50 596.50 107.0022.5%475.00-26.00-4.3%608.00NYMEX Heating Oil(US/gal)184.38 198.00 182.93 14.318.4%170.07-21.45-10.4%205.83ICE Gasoil(USD/tonne)565.98 607.99 563.74 57.9611.4%508.02-32.04-5.4%598.01|FOCUS 15/08/2019 2 OIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCE COMMODITIES Table 3:Implied 3:2:1 cracks based on Table 2 forecasts Chart 1:BNP Paribas crude oil(period average)price forecasts vs.Bloomberg survey Source:Bloomberg(24/05/19)and BNP Paribas(29/04/19)606260606263606055504850525455514045505560657075Q319Q419Q120Q220Q320Q4201920Bloomberg ConsensusBNP ParibasUSD/bblWTI686966666868676661555253545762544045505560657075Q319Q419Q120Q220Q320Q4201920Bloomberg ConsensusBNP ParibasBrentUSD/bblTable 4:BNP Paribas world oil balance assumptions*1)The residual(the difference between global oil demand and supply plus OECD stock changes)is a statistical balancing item that reflects unaccounted supply,demand and inventory changes 2)The amount of crude oil required from OPEC to balance supply and demand absent a change in inventory or price.*Latest forecast available at the time of publication of assumptions.*No assumption made on future OPEC crude production as this is a discretionary decision*Source:IEA(history),U.S.EIA and BNP Paribas(from Q1 2019 onwards).Certain aggregates may not add up due to rounding.Source:Bloomberg,Platts and BNP Paribas(29/04/19)Implied Margins2018Q1 Q2 Q3 fQ4 f2019 fQ1 fQ2 fQ3 fQ4 f2020 fUS 3:2:1 WTI Crack(USD/bbl)18.1616.5222.112016181621211418US 3:2:1 Brent Crack(USD/bbl)11.387.5813.541411111218191115Europe 3:2:1 Brent Crack(USD/bbl)9.555.5311.8913910915171013Singapore 3:2:1 Dubai Crack(USD/bbl)12.076.889.10121310131314101215 August 20192017Q118Q218Q318Q4182018Q119Q219Q319Q4192019Q120Q220Q320Q4202020OECD Demand47.647.947.348.247.847.847.547.348.448.247.847.747.548.748.448.1Non OECD Demand50.650.751.651.851.751.551.652.452.852.752.452.753.754.054.053.6World Demand98.298.698.9100.099.599.399.199.7101.2100.8100.2100.4101.2102.6102.4101.7World Demand(y/y)1.81.90.61.30.61.10.50.81.21.30.91.31.51.51.61.5Demand Memo itemsUS-5020.020.220.320.620.620.520.320.420.920.820.620.420.821.121.020.8OECD Europe14.414.114.314.714.114.313.914.314.714.214.314.014.314.714.214.3Japan3.94.33.53.63.93.84.13.43.53.93.74.03.33.43.83.6China12.512.713.013.113.113.013.013.313.513.513.313.413.713.913.913.7FSU4.54.54.64.94.84.74.64.75.04.94.84.74.85.15.04.9Middle East8.48.18.48.78.28.38.18.58.88.28.48.38.68.98.38.5India4.74.95.04.64.94.95.15.24.85.15.15.45.45.15.35.3Brazil3.03.02.93.13.13.03.03.03.13.13.13.13.03.23.23.1IEA World Demand*98.298.698.9100.099.599.399.199.7101.2101.4100.4100.1101.1102.8102.7101.7y/y growth1.81.90.61.30.61.10.50.71.21.91.11.01.51.61.31.3US EIA World Demand*98.699.199.6100.5100.499.999.8100.3101.5102.0100.9101.3101.8103.0103.2102.3y/y growth1.62.01.01.41.01.40.60.71.11.61.01.51.51.51.31.4Non OPEC Oil Supply60.161.362.263.664.562.963.964.565.165.764.866.166.967.367.667.0Non OPEC Oil Supply(y/y)0.91.72.63.43.52.82.62.31.51.21.92.22.42.31.92.2OPEC Crude Oil Supply32.031.731.632.032.231.930.630.0-OPEC NGLS5.55.55.55.55.55.55.65.65.55.55.65.65.65.65.65.6World Supply97.698.699.3101.2102.2100.3100.1100.1-Residual to balance1-0.6-0.10.41.22.71.01.00.4-Memo itemsOECD Industry Stocks(Chg)-0.4-0.50.00.60.10.00.10.9-OECD Gov.Stocks(Chg)-0.10.1-0.10.0-0.2-0.10.0-0.1-BNPP Call on OPEC Crude232.631.831.230.929.530.829.629.630.629.629.928.728.729.729.229.1IEA Call on OPEC Crude232.631.831.230.929.530.829.729.630.630.230.028.428.629.929.529.1|FOCUS 15/08/2019 3 OIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCE COMMODITIES Table 5:OPEC crude oil supply assumptions and implied global stock changes(mb/d)1)The amount of crude oil required from OPEC to balance supply and demand absent a change in inventory or price.2)Implied global stock change is difference between OPEC crude oil production and the Call on OPEC crude oil.Source:History-International Energy Agency,Projections-BNP Paribas.Certain aggregates may not add up due to rounding.Chart 2:OPEC crude oil production and assumptions,call on OPEC crude oil and implied global stock changes Chart 3:world oil balance in 2019 and 2020 Source:IEA-history,BNP Paribas projections Q12019 onwards(24/05/19)assumes that OPEC+will pursue supply coordination for the balance of 2019 and in 2020 Source:IEA and BNP Paribas(24/05/19)assumes that OPEC+will pursue supply coordination for the balance of 2019 and in 2020 100.264.829.930.05.60.1280.00.51.01.50102030405060708090100DemandNon-OPECSupplyCall on OPECCrudeOPEC crudesupplyImplied stockchange(RHS)mb/dmb/d2019OPEC NGL supply-2.0-1.00.01.02.0091011121314151617181920Implied global stock change(mb/d)Stock buildStock draw2830323436091011121314151617181920BNPP OPEC CrudeCall on OPEC Crude&Stock Changemb/d2017Q118Q218Q318Q4182018Q119Q219Q319Q4192019Q120Q220Q320Q4202020World demand,non-OPEC supply&OPEC NGLs(assumption at 15/08/19)World demand98.298.698.9100.099.599.399.199.7101.2100.8100.2100.4101.2102.6102.4101.7Non-OPEC oil supply60.161.362.263.664.562.963.964.565.165.764.866.166.967.367.667.0OPEC NGLs+NCONV5.55.55.55.55.55.55.65.65.55.55.65.65.65.65.65.6BNPP Call on OPEC crude 132.631.831.230.929.530.829.629.630.629.629.928.728.729.729.229.1Base case OPEC crude oil supply(assumptions at 15/08/19)Algeria1.01.01.01.11.11.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0Angola1.61.61.51.51.41.51.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.4Ecuador0.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.5Gabon0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.2Iraq4.54.54.54.74.74.64.74.74.84.84.74.84.84.84.94.8Iran3.83.83.83.63.03.62.72.42.22.12.42.02.02.02.12.0Kuwait&50%NZ2.72.72.72.82.82.72.72.72.72.72.72.72.72.82.82.8Libya0.81.00.90.91.11.01.01.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.1Nigeria1.51.71.51.61.61.61.71.71.81.81.71.71.71.71.71.7Saudi Arabia&50%NZ10.010.010.110.410.810.310.19.89.79.79.89.79.810.110.19.9United Arab Emirates2.92.82.93.03.33.03.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.1Venezuela2.01.51.41.31.31.41.10.90.80.70.80.50.50.50.50.5Equitorial Guinea0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1Congo0.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.30.30.30.30.40.30.30.3OPEC crude oil supply 32.031.731.632.032.231.930.630.029.729.630.029.429.429.729.929.6Implied global stock change 2-0.6-0.10.41.22.71.01.00.4-0.90.00.10.70.60.00.70.5101.767.029.129.65.60.4990.00.51.01.50102030405060708090100DemandNon-OPECSupplyCall on OPECCrudeOPEC crudesupplyImplied stockchange(RHS)mb/dmb/d2020OPEC NGL supply|FOCUS 15/08/2019 4 OIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCE COMMODITIES Chart 4:Crude oil and product price forecasts(monthly average)vs.forward curves*to 2019 Source:Bloomberg(24/05/19),BNP Paribas forecast issued 29 April 2019 *historical data is daily,forward curve at the time of writing.New YorkNW EuropeSingapore2030405060708090Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionWTI(USD/bbl)2030405060708090Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionBrent(USD/bbl)2030405060708090Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionDubai(USD/bbl)50100150200250Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionRBOB(US/gal)300400500600700800900Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionEurobob(USD/t)50100150200250300Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionHeating Oil(US/gal)200300400500600700800Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionGasoil(USD/t)2030405060708090100110Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionSingapore Gasoil(USD/bbl)30405060708090100Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionSingapore Gasoline(USD/bbl)This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies(collectively“BNPP”);it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis,and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report.This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in 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