波士顿咨询-创建一个更加数字化弹性的银行（英文）-2019.3-25页.pdf

Global Risk 2019Creating a More Digital,Resilient BankBoston Consulting Group(BCG)is a global management consulting firm and the worlds leading advisor on business strategy.We partner with clients from the private,public,and not-for-profit sectors in all regions to identify their highest-value opportunities,address their most critical challenges,and transform their enterprises.Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization.This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable competitive advantage,build more capable organizations,and secure lasting results.Founded in 1963,BCG is a private company with offices in more than 90 cities in 50 countries.For more information,please visit .March 2019|Boston Consulting GroupCREATING A MORE DIGITAL,RESILIENT BANKGEROLD GRASSHOFF MATTEO COPPOLA THOMAS PFUHLER NORBERT GITTFRIED STEFAN BOCHTLERVOLKER VONHOFF CARSTEN WIEGANDGlobal Risk 20192|Creating a More Digital,Resilient BankCONTENTS 3 OVERVIEW 5 ITS A THREE-SPEED WORLD FOR ECONOMIC PROFITABILITYRegional Performance:A Mixed PictureTime to Prepare for Economic and Technical Change 10 SETTING THE REGULATORY STAGE FOR THE FUTURE OF BANKINGFinancial StabilityPrudent OperationsResolution 15 AS BANKS DIGITIZE,SO MUST RISK AND TREASURYDigital RiskDigital Treasury Integrated Balance Sheet Management 20 FOR FURTHER READING 21 NOTE TO THE READERBoston Consulting Group|3Microsoft founder Bill Gates once said,“We always overesti-mate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”His words apply especially to technology.Digital disruption seems like an abstraction until it is thrust upon ones business and industry.Its safe to say that in banking,disruption is now here.Innovations that were bleeding edge just a decade agosuch as robotic process automation,machine learning,artificial intelligence,and cloud computingare joining the mainstream.Likewise,fintechs,bigtechs,and digital leaders that emerged during the past decade have already begun to form strategic banking partnerships and to carve out special-ized niches.As transformation accelerates,open banking,instant pay-ments,and other advances will create enormous value for fast-moving institutions while disintermediating those that move too slowly.BCGs ninth annual survey of the health and performance of the glob-al banking industry reveals that digitization is becoming more than just a smart competitive move:it will likely determine which banks survive through the next decade.Our data reveals that economic prof-it(EP)is on the wane for banks in all major markets,falling to levels not seen since 2013.Market forces have contributed to the falloff,es-pecially in Europe.However,theyre not the onlyor even the prima-ry factorsat play.In North America,for instance,banks enjoyed healthy economic growth and rising interest rates,yet EP declined slightly by 2 basis points from 2016 through 2017.Stronger income was not enough to overcome what has become the most significant encumbrances for banks across all regions:soaring risk and operating costs.In Europe,risk costs have reached their highest level since 2013.And in Asia-Pacific,an across-the-board spike in costs has eroded EP for most banks.Addressing these issues is not easy,but digitization as a lever to increase efficiency,speed processing,and improve decision making are necessary elements of the solution.For regulators,instilling trust in the strength and resilience of financial markets has become a dominant focus.Banks must improve the quality and efficiency of regulatory compliance to meet their ongoing financial-stability,prudent-operations,and resolution obligations.Achieving this will require finding leaner and smarter ways to manage the high volume of regulatory revisions,as well as experimenting with new technologies and partnerships to drive down the cost of know-your-customer documentation and to improve anti-money-laundering processes.Keen to protect financial markets from future shocks,regulators are trying to anticipate the ways that OVERVIEW4|Creating a More Digital,Resilient Banktechnology will reshape the banking ecosystem and,with it,their own role in establishing guidance.Our report examines the profound ways in which banks risk and treasury functions will change over the coming years.Both functions face a broader mandate with a larger slate of risks to manage,a grow-ing need for integrated steering to protect banks interests,and an equally growing need to make the most strategic use of banks bal-ance sheet resources.Delivering on this mandate will require risk and treasury to operate faster and more incisively,backed by real-time data,predictive analytics,and end-to-end automation.Risk and treas-ury functions that commit to“going digital”in these ways will be-come not only more efficient operators but also more effective strate-gic partners in delivering value to banks.This report indicates that banks are reaching an inflection point.While outside forces may have dictated the path in the post-recessionary period,banks now have an opportunity to lead the way.Boston Consulting Group|5The momentum that lifted the banking sectors performance through the first half of the decade has slowed in all major markets.While banking remains profitable on an absolute basis,total economic profit(EP),which adjusts for risk and capital costs,softened again in 2017,in the second straight year of decline.1 Since reaching a global-average high of 16 basis points in 2015,EP has slumped,falling to just 8 basis points in 2017.(See Exhibit 1.)With that slide,average banking performance is now on a par with that of 2013,when the banking industry started to regain its footing after the global recession.The developing markets were bright spots on the global banking landscape.An inability to shake off nagging risk and op-erating costs kept growth in check for most banks,but there were sharp regional differ-ences.In Europe,banks have remained mired in negative growth,hemmed in by low inter-est rates and nonperforming loans(NPLs).By contrast,banks in North America have bene-fited from increasing interest rates,but rising costs edged total EP down for the second straight year.In Asia-Pacific,banks experi-enced the third consecutive year of declining EP.The developing markets were bright spots on the global banking landscape.Although escalating costs rippled across the region,ro-bust income growth drove average EP higher in 2017,raising EP in the Middle East and Af-rica to a decade high.South Americas EP,though still strong at 91,was down slightly from 94 basis points the year before.These are among the findings of Boston Con-sulting Groups ninth annual study of the overall health and performance of the global banking industry.BCGs study assessed the EP generated from 2013 through 2017 by more than 350 retail,commercial,and investment banks,covering more than 80%of the global banking market.Because EP weighs refinanc-ing and operating and risk costs against in-come,it provides a comprehensive measure of a banks financial health and serves as a use-ful gauge in determining the impact of ongo-ing regulatory,technological,and competitive pressures on bank performance.Regional Performance:A Mixed PictureThe major marketsEurope,North America,and Asia-Pacificcontinue to run at dif-ferent rates,hobbled or aided in turn by the strength of the economic recovery in each region,the ongoing impact of NPLs,and stubbornly high cost structures.As a result,ITS A THREE-SPEED WORLD FOR ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY6|Creating a More Digital,Resilient BankEP varied considerably by region.(See Ex-hibit 2.)In Europe,NPL rates have sent risk costs soar-ing to their highest level since 2013.Banks notched slight improvements in refinancing and operating costs,but the combination of flat income growth and rising risk costs means that,on average,banks couldnt cover their cost of capital.Although overall EP recovered 4 basis points from 2016s low of 26,on the back of slight increases in fee and trading in-come,low interest and dividend income kept EP in negative territory throughout the dec-ade.The weight of the financial challenges has caused the ground to shift for banks that were already underperforming.Continued de-terioration in their results has widened the EP gap between them and the rest of the field.Its a different story in North America,where strong economic growth combined with rising interest rates led to an increase in total bank income.Much of that growth came from ris-ing net interest and dividend income,which rose from 191 basis points in 2016 to 215 in 2017.Taking the edge off this growth,howev-er,was a sharp rise in operating and risk costs,which saw material increases of more than 24 basis points.Those costs contributed to the second straight year of total EP de-clines.Compared with other regions,howev-er,the falloff has been slight:EP gave up just 2 basis pointsgoing from 27 in 2016 to 25 in 2017and only 6 basis points in all since the peak of the banking sectors economic recov-ery in 2015.In North America,unlike in Eu-rope,cooling performance among top banks played a bigger role in weakening average EP across the region while the bottom of the market remained largely stable.On the other side of the world,banks in Asia-Pacific faced the third straight year of significant declines.Since 2014,EP has more than halved,falling from 52 basis points to 19 basis points in 2017.Over that period,income has remained largely stable,but costs have risen.Risk costs jumped by 23 basis points,and operating costs by 14.Higher NPL provi-38152624262220010020001002031272548524331195770339491354550476271516118465xx1955036557246EuropeNorthAmerica1Asia-PacificSouthAmerica1Middle East andAfricaGlobalaverageEconomic profit generated by global banks,relative to total assets,20132017Economic profit(basis points)201720132014201520162017201320142015201620172013201420152016201720132014201520162017201320142015201620172013201420152016129948190712332524741144171155117XX68101372418681010125413014310868Waiting forrecoverySlowingdownBackon trackDecliningBackon trackCumulative economic profit,20132017(billions)Economic profit(billions)Sources:Bank Scope;annual reports;BCG Risk Team database;Bloomberg;BCG analysis.Note:Exchange rates from 2017 are used for comparability.1Total assets are lower than in Europe because of local and US generally accepted accounting principles.Exhibit 1|Economic Profit Continues to Decline WorldwideBoston Consulting Group|7EuropeNorthAmerica1Asia-PacificSouthAmerica1Middle East andAfrica110274250253240240253238235241285322328314284297858930341323321339419403502604505568272270252 24026611330328830035839016416715617611410512410811312114510611717616418620320816014414013315412737113555159148113571415114484133319497107589436931254114899999653211151204315014998465714711298152953147764825915010389487020994914020144475012610841138158952831373314017053119827491077951104791301565416599259Components of economic profit generated by global banks,relative to total assets,20132017347336344336369371362365407362443437507449471412411482429456385371388398390341 3403693463421,1221,1611,2581,0249391,0891,0671,167954882450466557464478400419495419443RefinancingRisk costsOperating costInterest and dividendsIncome components per asset(basis points)Cost components per asset(basis points)Economic profit per asset(basis points)Fees and commissionsTrading and other sources382624262215203127482552431931577033943591455062472017201320142015201620172013201420152016201720132014201520162017201320142015201620172013201420152016XXSources:Orbis;annual reports;BCG Risk Team database;Bloomberg;BCG analysis.Note:All values are per asset;that is,the total value in euros divided by total assets in euros,then expressed in basis points.For comparability,2017 exchange rates were used.Because of rounding,some values do not add up to the totals shown.The order of the regions shown reflects a focus on Europe and North America;the remaining regions are sorted according to total assets.1Total assets are lower than in Europe and Asia-Pacific because of local and US generally accepted accounting principles.Exhibit 2|Economic Profit Varied by Region in 20178|Creating a More Digital,Resilient Banksioning in Indian banks in response to stricter local regulatory requirements accounted for many of the regions EP challenges.There was less EP variability among banks in Asia-Pacific,as weaker results at the top end narrowed the gap.In contrast to these three major markets,the smaller ones of South America and the Mid-dle East and Africa turned in largely healthy results.In South America,EP fell from the 2016 high of 94 basis points,still landing at a respectable 91close to 60 basis points high-er than in 2015 and above the five-year run-ning EP average of 69.The Middle East and Africa region was the only one to deliver positive year-on-year EP growthsharply positive growth at thatwith EP surging 15 basis points to a total of 62 in 2017.Both fee and trading income post-ed gains,although a 45-basis-point rise in net interest and dividend income accounted for the bulk of banks growth.Costs also rose,but the impact was not enough to dampen EP performance overall.Time to Prepare for Economic and Technical ChangeBanking remains a three-speed world in which European banks continue to struggle,North American and Asia-Pacific banks strive to stay the course,and the developing markets of South America and the Middle East and Africa continue to show high profitability.Yet system-ic issues hound each region.One challenge is the yawning gap between laggard banks and a small,but aggressive,tier of determined in-cumbents seeking to forge fintech and open-banking partnerships that can provide customers with the mix of institutional re-sources and digital savvy that will increasingly define how banking services are delivered.Another challenge is resource strength.The economic recovery has benefited some mar-kets more than others,but the severity of the financial crisis has left a stratum of wounded banks.Only a small number of banks will have the balance sheet resources to serve the entire financial services value chain as new players with digitally enhanced capabilities carve out niche positions.Other banks will need to reassess where and how they want to competewhether to go for specialization or for scale.No matter which of these paths a bank chooses,it will have to significantly en-hance its existing organization to improve agility and digital maturity.The third major issue is the NPL burden.(See Exhibit 3.)While banks in the US have steadi-ly lowered their NPL ratio from a high of 0246810NPL ratio(%)200920152013201220102014201120162017Euro areaUS8.11.17.96.75.25.01.55.63.24.43.82.53.35.31.94.94.41.3Sources:World Bank.Note:NPL=nonperforming loan;NPL ratio=NPLs/gross loan volume.Exhi