巴克莱-美股-零售行业-2019年2月美国汽车零部件零售商-2019.3.20-32页.pdf

Equity Research 20 March 2019 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 22.Restricted-Internal Reading Between the HardLines February:Auto Part Retailers Latest macroeconomic data points:Retail sales by U.S.Census NAICS code for automotive parts,accessories&tire stores increased 1.8%to$7.63 billion on an adjusted basis and increased 2.5%to$7.10 billion on an unadjusted basis.In February,vehicle retail sales decreased(2.6)%Y/Y to 16.6 billion compared to a(0.8)%Y/Y decline in January.Prices of regular,mid,and premium gas remain relatively flat from March 2018,while prices of diesel fuel increased 2.8%Y/Y.News worthy highlights:A Cox Automotive survey(3/12/2019)shows that a sizable number of households getting a tax refund plan to use it to buy or finance a vehicle.Genuine Parts Company announced an automotive acquisition in Europe(3/5/2019).GPCs Alliance Automotive Group,the companys wholly-owned automotive distribution company based in London,UK,entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Dutch based PartsPoint Group,a leading distributor of automotive aftermarket parts and accessories in the Benelux marketplace.Barclays Autos&Auto Parts equity research and fundamental credit research teams take a deep dive into three auto part names from a cross-asset perspective(US Autos&Auto Parts:Sorting Through the Turnaround Trio 3/15/2019).Weather updates:In February 2019,every region experienced colder weather compared to February 2018.Specifically,the East and West North Central regions were 21%and 36%colder than last year respectively.Precipitation was mixed amongst regions with the greatest degree of higher precipitation in the West.AAP noted at the end of February it feels great where it is year to date,although winter has been volatile.AZO also recently noted the last few seasons have acted in line with seasonal trends,as the winter has been cold but not extreme.AZO does not believe that weather will be a headwind in terms of overall industry sales so far.E-Commerce promotions:AZO had three promotions this February compared to zero last year,which is a notable increase in promotions y/y.AZO discounts included$10 off$50 and 20%off$120 promos.Year-over-year,AAP significantly decreased its promotional cadence in February going from 4 promos in 2018 to zero in 2019.Additionally,ORLY also decreased its promotional cadence,from 3 promos in 2018 to 2 promos in 2019.ORLYs promotions included$25 off$100+or$50 off$250+.Trading:The auto part retailers outperformed the S&P during February,with the auto part retailers up an average of 7.6%vs.the S&P up 2.9%.Short interest over the month of February has decreased for AAP,AZO and ORLY:short interest for AAP decreased from 4.24%to 3.83%;short interest for AZO decreased from 3.01%to 2.93%;short interest for ORLY decreased from 1.58%to 1.38%.In February,consensus FY19 EPS estimates for ORLY increased 10.3%to$17.77 and for AAP increased 14.6%to$8.13.INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S.Retail Broadlines/Hardlines POSITIVE Unchanged U.S.Retail Broadlines/Hardlines Matthew McClintock,CPA,CFA+1 212 526 5257 BCI,US Jordana Cooper+1 212 526 7166 BCI,US Caitlin Howard+1 212 526 4809 BCI,US Thomas Chadwick+1 212 526-3385 BCI,US Barclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 2 Calendar of Upcoming Auto Part Related Events.3 Most Recent Macro Economic Data.4 Miles Driven.4 Light Vehicle Retail Sales SAAR.5 Census Sales by NAICS Code.6 Gas Prices.8 CPI-U:Motor&Oil Fuel Index.9 GDP.9 Employment.11 News Updates.12 Insights on Auto Parts Industry.12 Highlights from Barclays Research.12 Laterals from Related Companies.12 Weather Tracker.13 E-Commerce Promotional Tracker.17 Trading Commentary.18 Stock Performance.18 Consensus.18 Short Interest.19 Appendix:Less Frequently Updated Data Points.20 Cars in Sweet Spot(Vehicle Sales/Total Registrations).20 Mean Age of Light Vehicles in Operation in U.S.20 Motor Vehicle Registrations in U.S.21 Licensed Drivers in the U.S.21 Barclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 3 Calendar of Upcoming Auto Part Related Events Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 18 19 20 21 22 2:00 FOMC rate decision 10:00 leading indicators(Feb)25 26 27 28 29 8:30 Durable goods orders(Feb)10am Consumer Confidence Morgan Stanley Automotive Aftermarket Symposium(AAP,AZO,TEN,PRTS)8:30 Advance trade and inventories(Feb)8:30 GDP(Q4 3rd)8:30 Personal income&spending(Feb)10:00 U/M Consumer sentiment April 1 2 3 4 5 10am ISM mfg(Mar)PM Vehicle sales(Mar)8:15 ADP employment report(Mar)8:30 Trade balance(Feb)8:30 Employment report(Mar)8 9 10 11 12 8:30 CPI 10:00 Wholesale inventories(Feb)8:30 PPI 8:30 Import prices(Mar)10:00 U/M Consumer sentiment(Apr P)Source:Barclays Research,Company Reports,2019 US Economic Indicator Calendar(12/11/2018)Barclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 4 Most Recent Macro Economic Data Miles Driven In November,U.S.Vehicle Miles of Travel increased 0.3%y/y to 258.5 million miles.In comparison,miles driven was up 1.2%y/y in October.Sequentially,miles driven decreased(8.4)%.Data are published on a two-month lag from the U.S.Department of Transportations Office of Federal Highway Administration.FIGURE 1 U.S.Vehicle Miles of Travel(Y/Y percent change)Source:U.S.Department of Transportation,Federal Reserve Economic Data,Haver Analytics,Barclays Research FIGURE 2 Trailing 12-Month Total Vehicles Miles Traveled,Millions of Miles Source:U.S.Department of Transportation,Federal Reserve Economic Data,Barclays Research -2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%Nov-2014Jan-2015Mar-2015May-2015Jul-2015Sep-2015Nov-2015Jan-2016Mar-2016May-2016Jul-2016Sep-2016Nov-2016Jan-2017Mar-2017May-2017Jul-2017Sep-2017Nov-2017Jan-2018Mar-2018May-2018Jul-2018Sep-2018Nov-2018Y/Y%Change0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%Nov-2014Jan-2015Mar-2015May-2015Jul-2015Sep-2015Nov-2015Jan-2016Mar-2016May-2016Jul-2016Sep-2016Nov-2016Jan-2017Mar-2017May-2017Jul-2017Sep-2017Nov-2017Jan-2018Mar-2018May-2018Jul-2018Sep-2018Y/Y%ChangeBarclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 5 Light Vehicle Retail Sales SAAR In February,vehicle retail sales decreased(2.6)%y/y to 16.6 billion.Sequentially,vehicle retail sales declined(0.8)%compared to January.The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted light vehicle retail sales at the beginning of each new month.FIGURE 3 Total Light Vehicle Retail Sales-SAAR(Imported+Domestic)Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis,Haver Analytics,Barclays Research FIGURE 4 Total Light Vehicle Retail Sales Y/Y Percent Change Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis,Haver Analytics,Barclays Research 16.6 bn02468101214161820Feb-11Jun-11Oct-11Feb-12Jun-12Oct-12Feb-13Jun-13Oct-13Feb-14Jun-14Oct-14Feb-15Jun-15Oct-15Feb-16Jun-16Oct-16Feb-17Jun-17Oct-17Feb-18Jun-18Oct-18Feb-19Units(millions)-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%Feb-11Jun-11Oct-11Feb-12Jun-12Oct-12Feb-13Jun-13Oct-13Feb-14Jun-14Oct-14Feb-15Jun-15Oct-15Feb-16Jun-16Oct-16Feb-17Jun-17Oct-17Feb-18Jun-18Oct-18Feb-19Y/Y%ChangeBarclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 6 Census Sales by NAICS Code The U.S.Census breaks down monthly retail sales by specific NAICS codes;we specifically look at code 4413,which is automotive parts,accessories and tire stores.On an adjusted basis,January 2019 automotive parts,accessories,and tire store sales increased 1.8%to$7.63 billion compared to$7.49 billion during January the prior year.On an unadjusted basis,January 2019 automotive parts,accessories,and tire store sales increased 2.5%to$7.10 billion compared to$6.93 billion during January the prior year.We note that the U.S.Census Bureau does not give advance retail sales data for the specific NAICS code 4413.FIGURE 5 Unadjusted U.S.Census Retail Sales Auto parts,accessories stores(Millions$USD)Source:U.S.Census Bureau,Barclays Research FIGURE 6 Unadjusted U.S.Census Retail Sales Auto parts,accessories stores Y/Y Percent Change Source:U.S.Census Bureau,Barclays Research$5,500$6,000$6,500$7,000$7,500$8,000$8,500Y/Y%Change-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%Y/Y%ChangeBarclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 7 FIGURE 7 Adjusted U.S.Census Retail Sales-Auto parts,accessories stores(Millions$USD)Source:U.S.Census Bureau,Barclays Research FIGURE 8 Adjusted U.S.Census Retail Sales-Auto parts,accessories stores Y/Y Percent Change Source:U.S.Census Bureau,Barclays Research$7,200$7,300$7,400$7,500$7,600$7,700$7,800Y/Y%Change-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%Y/Y%ChangeBarclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 8 Gas Prices Gas prices have decreased over the past several months,however in March gas prices have remained similar to last year.Diesel prices remain elevated compared to 2018.Average price of regular gas for the week of March 18th 2019 was$2.56,compared to$2.59 last year.Mid and premium gas prices have remained relatively similar to last year at$2.83 and$3.09.Diesel prices increased 2.8%to$3.01.AAA updates this data daily and the U.S.Energy Information Administration updates this data weekly;the next release will be on March 25th 2019.FIGURE 9 AAA Gas Price Tracker Y/Y Percent Change in Price,March 2019 Source:AAA,Barclays Research FIGURE 10 Gas Price Tracker Regular Gas Source:U.S.Energy Information Administration,Barclays Research -0.1%0.0%0.2%2.8%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%RegularMidPremiumDiesel%change y/y%change0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.502012201320142015201620172018201920142016201220132017201520182019Barclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 9 CPI-U:Motor&Oil Fuel Index In February,the motor fuel index decreased(8.9)%y/y.This compares to a(9.9)%y/y decrease in January.The index is published on a monthly basis as the other CPI data set is published.The motor fuel index is a component of the private transportation index.FIGURE 11 CPI-U:Motor Fuel(y/y percentage change)Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics,Haver Analytics,Barclays Research GDP According to the initial estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis,GDP increased 2.6%in the 4th quarter.GDP increased 3.4%in the 3rd quarter.The increase in real GDP in the 4th quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE,non-residential fixed investment and state and local government spending.The deceleration in real GDP growth in the 4th quarter reflected decelerations in private inventory investment,PCE and federal government spending and a downturn in state and local government spending.The next estimate for 4Q18 GDP will be released on March 28th,2019.FIGURE 12 GDP Source:Haver Analytics,Bureau of Economic Analysis-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%Feb 2014May 2014Aug 2014Nov 2014Feb 2015May 2015Aug 2015Nov 2015Feb 2016May 2016Aug 2016Nov 2016Feb 2017May 2017Aug 2017Nov 2017Feb 2018May 2018Aug 2018Nov 2018Feb 2019Y/Y%Change0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%12/1/20114/1/20128/1/201212/1/20124/1/20138/1/201312/1/20134/1/20148/1/201412/1/20144/1/20158/1/201512/1/20154/1/20168/1/201612/1/20164/1/20178/1/201712/1/20174/1/20188/1/201812/1/2018%Change in GDPReal GDPBarclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 10 FIGURE 13 United States Economic Outlook Source:Global Economics Weekly(10/18/18)Barclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 11 Employment In February,20,000 new jobs were created and the unemployment rate slightly declined to 3.8%from 4.0%in December.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports this statistic at the beginning of every month and November unemployment figures will be released on April 5th,2019.FIGURE 14 Unemployment Rate Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics,Barclays Research In February,ADP nonfarm private payroll increased by 183,000 jobs.In January,ADP nonfarm private payroll increased by 213,000 jobs.FIGURE 15 ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment Monthly Change(thousands)Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics,Haver Analytics,Barclays Research 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%Unemployment Rate(%)0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2/1/20116/1/201110/1/20112/1/20126/1/201210/1/20122/1/20136/1/201310/1/20132/1/20146/1/201410/1/20142/1/20156/1/201510/1/20152/1/20166/1/201610/1/20162/1/20176/1/201710/1/20172/1/20186/1/201810/1/20182/1/2019(m/m%Change)Barclays|Reading Between the HardLines 20 March 2019 12 News Updates Insights on Auto Parts Industry March 12,2019 Cox Automotive:Even with Tax Refunds Down,Data Point to Improving Used-Car Market.Although tax refunds are down in total,a Cox Automotive survey shows a sizable number of households getting a tax refund plan to use it to buy or finance a vehicle.Many of the households most likely to buy used vehicle also appear to be those more likely to be positively surprised by receiving a bigger refund.The weekly trend at Manheim(MMR Index)suggests that,after a slow start,demand has started to pick up.February 28,2019 Bloomberg:New Star in the$900 Billion Auto Aftermarket:Your Wrecked SUV.Bloomberg takes a closer look at insurers writing off 20%of accident vehicles.Furthermore,tariffs could increase the prices of parts significantly.Highlights from Barclays Research March 15,2019 US Autos&Auto Parts:Sorting Through the Turnaround Trio.The US Autos&Auto Parts equity research and fundamental credit research teams take a deep dive into three auto part names from a cross-asset perspective.The teams focus on ADNT,AXL and DLPH,which have stumbled dramatically over the last year,with ADNT having the highest upside potential.March 4,2019 US Autos&Auto Parts:Softer sales linger into February.The US Autos&Auto parts team believes the lacklustre start to the year is likely driven by the lingering polar vortex as well as uncertainty around the prolonged government shutdown impacting consumer behavior.Furthermore,industry inventory DSO stabilized somewhat from January but remain elevated at 6 days above the historical February average.February 19,2019 US Auto Parts:An Investors Guide to Normalizing Growth Guides.As we exit a volatile earnings and guidance season,the US Autos&Auto Parts team takes a closer look to which companies were more vs.less conservative on their macro guides and what is the implied organic growth rate of the market.Laterals from Related Companies March 5,2019 Genuine Parts Company announces automotive acquisition in Europe.GPCs Alliance Automotive Group entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Dutch based PartsPoint Group.GPCs AAG is the companys wholly-owned automotive distribution company based in London,UK.PartsPoint Group is a leading distributor of automotive aftermarket parts and accessories in the Benelux marketplace.February 25,2019 Dorman Products reported fourth quarter and fiscal 2018 results,issues fiscal 2019 guidance DORM