贝莱德：2019年全球投资展望-2019.1-16页.pdf

球投资展2019贝莱德智库供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用。MKTGM0119A-703299-1/16MKTGM0119A-701447-1/16每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。2供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用。球投资展约100专业投资人士受参加了我们举办的2019年展论坛,讨球经济景明一年市场主题析经济衰忧虑风险,并更我们对于不同资产的投资观点主结论下 主题国步经济期末段,预2019年球经济企业盈利增长将放缓着储的政利率趋中性水平,预期储的利率政将会更加依赖相关数据而作决定,这使得暂停加息的可性成为市场不定因素的主来源鉴于风险上升,我们应谨慎平衡风险与回报,投资组合宜选政府债券风险,并将资金置于风险回报水平具引力的高信度资产 风险虽我们认为国于2019年陷衰的实际风险较,但对经济濒临衰的仍会对市场构成冲击货币政维宽,经济过热不明显,并且金融体风险并未加剧,这都表明经济仍处于扩张期贸易中对科技领导位之争影响市场绪我们认为相去年,贸易风险已较在资产价格中,但预期双方谈判出现何波折都将可会引市场欧经济增长乏力,中期而言,我们对欧政治风险到忧虑我们认为各兴市场国家独的风险缓和,中国放宽政助稳定经济 市场观点我们看于债券,但信心所下方面,我们认为具备自由现金可续增长良资产负债表的优质更一筹我们看国,并认为兴市场风险回报水平所提高固定收益方面,我们上调了国国债评级,看其在期末段防下行风险的作用 我们中短期债券,但对久期的看法转为乐观,我们认为应增优质信用债就投资组合整体置而言,我们会免涉足上升间限但下行风险大的资产领域,欧Kate Moore首席略师贝莱德智库Isabelle Mateos y Lago首席元资产略师贝莱德智库Elga Bartsch经济和市场研负责人贝莱德智库Richard Turnill球首席投资略师贝莱德智库市场简.3资产观点.12-15债券石油货币资产类别展未来展讨论.9-11兴市场价值投资势思维风险.7-8经济衰忧虑升温缘政治风险转2019年主题.4-6增长放缓利率中性水平平衡风险与回报MKTGM0119A-703299-2/16MKTGM0119A-701447-2/16FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.3FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.SET TING THE SCENE3Looking for a landing spotTotal annual returns of global stocks and bonds,19912018-10-50510152025%-40-2002040%Global bondsGlobal stocks1991199920132005199420152001200820111992200020161996201019972009200220042007201720122018 YTD201420061993199819952003Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.It is not possible to invest directly in an index.Sources:BlackRock Investment Institute,with data from Thomson Reuters,December 2018.Notes:Global stocks are represented by the MSCI ACWI index.Global bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index.Total returns are shown in U.S.dollars.2018 returns are through Dec.6.Yielding moreAsset yields,December 2018 vs.post-crisis average and start of 2018Asset yields have risen across the board 0510%EMequitiesDMequities$EMdebtU.S.high yield U.S.investment gradeU.S.10-yearTreasuryU.S.2-yearTreasuryYield Earnings yieldPost-crisis averageCurrentStart of 2018Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.It is not possible to invest directly in an index.Source:BlackRock Investment Institute,with data from Thomson Reuters,December 2018.Notes:The post-crisis average is measured from 2009 through 2018.Equity market yields are represented by 12-month forward earnings yields.Indexes used from left to right are:Thomson Reuters Datastream 2-year and 10-year U.S.Government Benchmark Indexes,Bloomberg Barclays U.S.Credit Index,Bloomberg Barclays U.S.High Yield Index,JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index,MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index.Setting the scene We see equities and bonds eking out positive returns in 2019.Global growth looks set to be a key driver of returns as the cycle ages.We see growth moderating,but little near-term risk of a U.S.recession(pages 4 and 7).Corporate earnings growth is slowing but still decent(page 13).And bonds are looking more attractive,both as a source of income and as portfolio ballast against any late-cycle growth scares(page 12).The end of a decades-long bond bull market means negative stock and bond returns may become more common.We may end 2018 with negative returns in both asset classes a rare event.See the Looking for a landing spot chart.The culprits:uncertainty over trade disputes,late-cycle concerns and tighter financial conditions.Trade frictions still loom but now appear more baked into asset prices.We are wary of European political risks and assets(page 8).The key risk for equities:Recession fears land us in the charts lower-right.We see potential for a market rebound in 2019,likely with muted returns.Valuations have cheapened across asset classes,reflecting greater risk as we head into 2019.We still prefer equities over bonds,although with reduced conviction.Risks such as earnings downgrades and market anxiety over a recession are real.This underpins our preference for quality companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable free cash flows.Equity valuations are back in line with post-crisis averages in developed markets and look particularly attractive in the emerging world.See the Yielding more chart.Rising short-term yields are starting to make bonds a viable alternative to riskier assets for U.S.-dollar-funded investors.Two-year U.S.Treasury yields are now more than three times their average over the post-crisis period,as the chart shows.We prefer short maturities but see a role for longer-term debt as a buffer during equity market selloffs.See page 12.We upgrade our view of U.S.government debt on higher yields and their role as portfolio ballast.Cheaper asset valuations lower the bar for positive performance in 2019,but rising risks argue for caution.BIIM1218U/E-688921-3/16过去表现并目或未来业绩的可标无法直投资于数数据源贝莱德智库,数据来自汤路,2018年12月注球MSCI所国家世界数代表,球债券彭巴克莱球综合债券数代表总回报元显2018年回报截至12月6日过去表现并目或未来业绩的可标无法直投资于数数据源贝莱德智库,数据来自汤路,2018年12月注危机后平值2009年至2018年数据计市收益率12个月远期盈利收益率所采用数由左至右为汤路Datastream 2年期10年期国政府基准数彭巴克莱国信用债数彭巴克莱国高收益数根大球兴市场元债券数MSCI世界数MSCI兴市场数3供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用。市场简市场简我们认为2019年债券仅会弱上升着期步尾声,球经济增长将成为推动回报的关键因素我们认为增长正在放缓,但短期内国陷衰的风险（见47页）企业盈利增长所放缓,但仍处于良水平（见13页）债券引力上升,其可作为收益来源,亦可效期末段增长放缓忧虑引发的下行风险（见12页）长数十年的债券牛市告终,意味着债券回报下跌的况将更为常见2018年末可出现债齐跌的见况详见右上图“寻找着陆点”成上况的根源包括贸易争端带来的不定因素期末段忧虑金融环境收紧贸易的阴仍未,但现在乎已更在资产价格中我们认为应该惕欧的政治风险和资产景（见8页）面临的主风险来自经济衰引发的忧虑,这可导回报跌至图表右下方位置2019年市场回升,但可不会带来强劲的回报各资产类别估值所下跌,2019年将面临更高风险我们仍看于债券,但信心所下盈利下调市场对经济衰的担忧风险步显现因,我们看具稳健资产负债表和可续自由现金的优质企业成熟市场估值跌至危机后平水平,兴市场估值引力上升详见右下图“收益率上升”短期债券收益率上升,对元投资者而言,债券收益可风险资产图所,目国2年期国债收益率为危机后平值三倍上我们看短期债券,但认为较长期债券在市出现抛售时助风险详见12页我们上调国国债评级,因其收益率较高,亦可助投资组合风险资产估值下跌2019年更易获得正向回报,但须惕风险升温寻找着陆点球债券年度总回报（1991年至2018年）收益率上升2018年12月与危机后平值2018年初资产收益率较危机后平值国2年期国债国10年期国债国投资级别债券国高收益债券兴市场元债券成熟市场兴市场2018年初目2018年初至球收益率盈利收益率球债券资产收益率普上升MKTGM0119A-703299-3/16MKTGM0119A-701447-3/16FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.2019 THEMES GROW TH SLOWDOWN4Slowing downBlackRock Growth GPS for the U.S.,eurozone and Japan,201520183%JapanEurozoneU.S.2018201720162015Annual real GDP growth12JapanEurozoneU.S.2018 snapshot2.69%1.8%1.33%1.16%1.47%2.92%Sources:BlackRock Investment Institute,with data from Bloomberg,December 2018.Notes:The BlackRock Growth GPS shows where the 12-month forward consensus GDP forecast may stand in three months time.Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass.Expectations meet realityAnnual trend in analyst earnings estimates since 2008 vs.current 2019 forecasts0510U.S.EuropeEMEarnings growth estimate15%Earnings downgrades are largely priced into U.S.and EM stocksDec.Nov.Oct.Sept.Aug.JulyJuneMayAprilMarchFeb.Jan.2019 estimatesSource:BlackRock Investment Institute,with data from Thomson Reuters and IBES,December 2018.Note:The lines show the trend in average annual earnings growth estimates throughout a calendar year,from 2008 to 2018.The last four weeks of 2018 assume no change in analyst growth estimates.The 2019 estimates are as of December 2018.The respective MSCI indexes are used to represent the U.S.,European and EM markets.It is not possible to invest directly in an index.Click to view interactive dataTheme 1:growth slowdownWe expect a slowdown in global growth next year,and see the U.S.economy entering a late-cycle phase.Our BlackRock Growth GPS has been trending lower across the U.S.and eurozone,pointing to a slower pace of growth in the 12 months ahead.Growth is ticking up in Japan,but from low levels.See the Slowing down chart.We see U.S.growth stabilizing at a much higher level than other regions,even as the fading effects of domestic fiscal stimulus weigh on year-on-year growth comparisons.This underscores our preference for U.S.assets within the developed world.We expect the Chinese growth slowdown to be mild,as the country appears keenly focused on supporting its economy via fiscal and monetary stimulus.See page 10.We see global growth declining,with the U.S.outperforming its developed market peers and China stabilizing.Also set to moderate in 2019:global earnings growth.In the U.S.,the expected slowdown partly reflects a higher hurdle versus 2018 when corporate tax cuts provided a big boost to company earnings.U.S.earnings growth estimates look set to normalize from a heady 24%in 2018 to 9%in 2019,consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters data show.This is still above the global average.EMs are set to maintain double-digit earnings growth,led by China as its tech sector recovers and a pivot toward economic stimulus supports its economy.The U.S.and EMs remain our favored regions.Slowing growth and the impact of tariffs make for a more cautious corporate outlook.This could add to uncertainty in earnings estimates.The Expectations meet reality chart shows analysts estimates have generally tracked lower from the start of the year,especially in Europe.The historical trend suggests earnings downgrades are largely priced into U.S.and EM stocks,whereas European estimates may be too optimistic given political and growth risks.Corporate earnings growth is likely to slow in 2019,but we see U.S.and EM companies best positioned to deliver on expectations.BIIM1218U/E-688921-4/16数据源贝莱德智库,数据来自彭,2018年12月注贝莱德增长GPS标显GDP未来12个月一预测在三个月后的水平预测未必会发生数据源贝莱德智库,数据来自汤路IBES,2018年12月注线显2008年至2018年各年平年度盈利增长预测的趋势假设2018年后四星期析师增长预测并无变动2019年预测截至2018年12月国欧兴市场数据由对应的MSCI数代表无法直投资于数4供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用。点击处浏览互动数据主题1增长放缓我们预期明年球经济增长将放缓,国步经济期末段贝莱德增长GPS标显,国欧元区增长率趋向下跌,预计未来12个月增长步伐将放缓日本经济则由位升详见右上图“增长放缓”虽国财政刺激措对经济同增长的效果渐,但我们认为,相其它区,国经济仍会在更高的增长水平上企稳因,在成熟市场中,我们认为国资产更一筹中国锐意过财政货币刺激措提经济,因我们预期中国经济增长放缓的度将较为温和详见10页我们认为球增长将放缓,国经济增长将领先于其它成熟市场,中国经济增长平稳2019年球企业盈利增长亦将放缓预期国企业盈利增长放缓的部原因是,国在2018年企业所得税,推动企业盈利大幅上升,这导企业明年盈利增长的对基数提高,难与2018年汤路预测数据显,预计国盈利增长将由2018年24%的高水平回至2019年9%的正常水平,但仍高于球平水平中国科技行业回暖,加上政府重点推行刺激措提经济,带动兴市场企业盈利维双位数增长因,我们仍看国兴市场增长放缓关税影响企业景增添变量,或会为盈利预测带来不定因素右下图“预期与现实相”显,析师盈利预测普由年初下跌,尤欧为显根据往况,国兴市场价普盈利下跌的趋势,而欧面临的政治增长风险可被估,尚未在市场价格中企业盈利增长可在2019年放缓,但我们认为国兴市场企业力实现预期增长2019年主题增长放缓增长放缓关国欧元区日本增长的贝莱德GPS标（2015年至2018年）预期与现实相自2008年析师盈利预测年度趋势与目对2019年预测的较年度实际GDP增长盈利增长预测国国国日本欧元区欧兴市场2019年预测欧元区国兴市场价普盈利下跌的趋势2018年况日本1月7月2月8月3月9月4月10月5月11月6月12月MKTGM0119A-703299-4/16MKTGM0119A-701447-4/16FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.5FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.2019 THEMES NEARING NEUTR AL5Tightening timeBlackRock U.S.Growth GPS vs.GDP growth implied by U.S.FCI,20142019Growth is set to followour FCI lower in 20191.752.252.753.25%GDP growth implied by U.S.FCIU.S.Growth GPS201920182017201620152014Real GDP annual growth rateSource:BlackRock Investment Institute,with data from Bloomberg and Consensus Economics,December 2018.Notes:The BlackRock U.S.Growth GPS(blue line)shows where the 12-month forward consensus GDP forecast may stand in three months time.The green line shows the rate of GDP growth implied by our U.S.financial conditions indicator(FCI),based on its historical relationship with our Growth GPS.The FCI inputs include policy rates,bond yields,corporate bond spreads,equity market valuations and exchange rates.The U.S.FCI is moved forward six months,as it has historically led changes in the Growth GPS.Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass.Getting to neutralU.S.current and long-term neutral rates,and real policy rates,19902018The Feds policy rate is below neutral 02468%2018201020001990RateFed policy rateCurrent neutral rateRecessionsLong-term neutral rateSources:BlackRock Investment Institute,Federal Reserve and National Bureau of Economic Research,with data from Thomson Reuters,November 2018.Notes:The chart shows U.S.policy rates with our estimate of current and long-term neutral rates.The neutral rates are estimated based on an econometric model from the July 2018 ECB working paper “The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle.”This model takes into account financial cycle dynamics.Theme 2:nearing neutralU.S.financial conditions are still relatively loose,but they are tightening.Why does this matter?Financial conditions are key to the near-term growth outlook.But financial conditions are tough to measure.Common gauges which include interest rates,market volatility and asset valuations can give misleading results.Example:Rising U.S.growth expectations can push up yields and the dollar,leading to the deceptive conclusion that financial conditions are tightening and growth is deteriorating.Our new financial conditions indicator(FCI)seeks to avoid this problem by stripping out the impact of growth news on asset prices.It shows U.S.financial conditions are tightening.Moves in our FCI have historically led our growth GPS by around six months.All other things equal,this implies slowing,but above-trend growth in 2019,we believe.See the Tightening time chart.Our gauge of financial conditions points to slowing growth in 2019 as the Fed tightens monetary policy further.We see the process of tighter financial conditions pushing yields up(and valuations down)set to ease in 2019.Why?U.S.rates are en route to neutral the level at which monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts growth.Our analysis pegs the current U.S.neutral rate at around 3.5%,a little above its long-term trend.See the blue line in the Getting to neutral chart.Yet uncertainty abounds over where neutral lies in the long run(gray line):Our estimate sits in the middle of the 2.5%to 3.5%range identified by the Fed.We see a rate near the top of this range needed to stabilize the U.S.economy and debt levels.Yet we expect the Fed to become cautious as it nears neutral and pause its quarterly pace of hikes amid slowing growth and inflation in 2019.We see the pressure on asset valuations easing as a result.Europe and Japan will likely take only timid steps toward normalization.We dont expect the European Central Bank to raise rates before President Mario Draghis term ends.Nearing neutral could mean a relief from the tightening process that has weighed on asset valuations.BIIM1218U/E-688921-5/16数据源贝莱德智库,数据来自彭Consensus Economics,2018年12月注贝莱德国增长GPS标（蓝线）显GDP 未来12个月一预测在三个月后的水平绿线显国金融环境标所GDP增长率（根据国金融环境标与增长GPS标历史关计）金融环境标数据包括政利率债券收益率企业债券息市估值汇率国金融环境标走势过去已经领先于增长GPS标变动六个月预测未必会发生数据源贝莱德智库储国国家经济研局,数据来自汤路,2018年11月注图表显国政利率与我们对目长期中性利率的预测中性利率根据欧行于2018年7月发布的研报告“自利率与金融期”(“The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle”)所载计量经济型估该型包了金融期变动因素5供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用。主题2利率中性水平国金融环境仍相对宽,但正渐收紧这会产生什么影响金融环境是预测期增长景的关键因素,但难衡量用衡量标（包括利率市场波幅资产估值）可产生误导性的结果,国增长预测上升可推高收益率元,这可让人误为金融环境收紧且增长形势转贝莱德设立的金融环境标（FCI）去除增长数据对资产价格的影响,可免出现误导该标显国金融环境正在收紧金融环境标走势过去已经领先贝莱德增长GPS标约六个月我们认为,假设其它因素不变,这意味着2019年经济增长将放缓,但仍高于趋势水平详见右上图“金融环境收紧”我们的衡量标显,着储进一步收紧货币政,2019年经济增长将放缓我们认为金融环境收紧收益率上升（估值下）的况将于2019年所缓原因何在国利率趋中性水平,即货币政不会刺激亦不会限制增长我们预测目国中性利率水平约为3.5%,高于长期趋势水平详见右下图“利率趋中性水平”的蓝线而,长期中性利率（线）处于哪个水平存在不定因素我们的预测处于储估的中性利率区间（2.5%至3.5%）中部我们认为,稳定国