巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-2019年Q3新兴市场展望：差异化问题-20190522-9页.pdf

Global and local:The outlook for emerging markets hinges on global and local factors,in our view.In terms of the influence of global factors on EMs through commercial and financial channels,we do not see a systemic crisis looming or a domino effect,despite the risks associated with the late-cycle nature of the global expansion.We think EM overall are more resilient today than in the past to weather external shocks,and thus less vulnerable to contagion and global jitters.Taken as whole,EMs today have larger foreign reserves,lower inflation,more flexible exchange rate regimes and better debt composition,with more reliance on local-currency debt.External and fiscal deficits have narrowed,and frameworks improved.Now,many EM have fiscal rules and more autonomous central banks.In short:this is not the 1990s.However,not all EM are created equal.Local factors mean that idiosyncratic stories within EM are likely to remain in the spotlight,in our view.From Argentinas upcoming elections and Turkeys ongoing adjustment,to South Africas remaining twin deficits and Brazils pending pension reform we think differentiation matters within EM.See pages 2 and 3 for more detail on our forecasts.|FOCUS 23/05/2019 1 FOCUS|EMERGING MARKETS 22 May 2019 EM outlook Q3 2019 Differentiation matters Please refer to important information at the end of this report EM ECONOMICS|EM STRATEGY KEY MESSAGES For emerging markets,our base case is that global commercial and financial channels are balanced,with idiosyncratic stories likely to remain in the spotlight.We have cut our EM real GDP growth forecast below consensus and expect inflation to remain contained in most EM economies.In turn,soft growth and low inflation should entail monetary easing across EMs this year,in our view.MARKET VIEW Despite potential global headwinds,our view that relevant interest rates in advanced economies will remain low for long is crucial for EM,as we find strong econometric evidence that the long end of the US curve(in real terms)is critical when assessing systemic risks for the asset class.We like receiving rates in local currency in places such as Brazil,Mexico and China.For more,see Chinas impact on EM yields and FX and The impact of external channels on yields.Marcelo Carvalho,Global Head of Emerging Markets Research Luiz Eduardo Peixoto,Emerging Markets Economist|BNP Paribas London branch 0123456783.03.54.04.5HistogramFitted normal dist.Emerging economies:2019 real GDP growth(sample containing 26 institutions,10 EMs,weighted by GDP size)Fig.1:BNP Paribas EM GDP forecasts vs consensus 10 emerging markets,weighted by GDP size(does not include China)Sources:Bloomberg,IMF,BNP Paribas For more,see our Global Outlook Q3 2019:Late-cycle carry,published 21 May|FOCUS 23/05/2019 2 Softer growth:On real GDP growth,our EM forecast suggests most countries will decelerate in 2019 when compared with 2018(see Figure 5 in page 3),with less trade growth,paltry investment and restricted room for fiscal expansion.The standouts in terms of downward growth revisions are Brazil(disappointing recovery),Turkey(recent developments)and South Africa(power outages).ASEAN economies are also affected by a slump in Chinese imports(see EM trade tracker),EM:Less growth,low inflation,further monetary easing ECONOMICS|EMERGING MARKETS Marcelo Carvalho,Global Head of Emerging Markets Research|Luiz Eduardo Peixoto,Emerging Markets Economist|BNP Paribas London branch Fig.3:EM headline and core inflation,EM-16*(%y/y,12mma)Dotted lines denote BNP Paribas forecasts.Sources:Macrobond,BNP Paribas.*Includes data for 16 EMs(see below for detail).Fig.4:Average policy interest rate,EM-16*(%annual rate)*Includes data for 16 EMs:Brazil,Chile,China,Colombia,Czech Republic,Hungary,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Mexico,Poland,Romania,Saudi Arabia,South Africa,Thailand,and Turkey Dotted lines denote BNP Paribas forecasts Sources:Macrobond,BNP Paribas 4.05.06.07.08.09.008 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Fig.2:Average real GDP growth rate,EM-17*(%y/y,quarterly averages)*Includes data for 16 EMs:Argentina,Brazil,Chile,China,Colombia,Czech Republic,Hungary,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Mexico,Poland,Romania,Saudi Arabia,South Africa,Thailand,and Turkey Dotted lines denote BNP Paribas forecasts Sources:Bloomberg,Macrobond,BNP Paribas-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.006 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Monetary easing:We expect monetary easing in EMs this year,after monetary tightening last year(Figure 4),with more central banks likely to cut interest rates than hike them this year(see Figure 7 and EM monetary policy:Easing ahead).For instance,in our below-consensus call,tumbling growth will bring rate cuts later this year in places such as Brazil(50bp)and South Africa(25bp).In both,despite hopes for reform,policy uncertainty remains a drag to investment.We think Q4 will finally see Mexicos central bank kick off easing of its tight monetary policy.Central Europe might buck the easing trend owing to rising wage pressures.Still,in Poland,for instance,a dovish bias should bring hikes only in H2 2020,despite a significant fiscal boost.Low inflation:We foresee limited inflation pressure in most of the EM economies we cover(Figures 3 and 6).Despite some upside risks from food and gasoline prices,core gauges remain mostly contained,amid sluggish domestic demand.Inflation in most of the countries should not be far from target,we forecast,with an EM median of about 34%.Two notable double-digit exceptions to an otherwise benign inflation picture are Argentina and Turkey.For EMs overall,we see softer growth,low inflation and monetary easing this year.We have cut our 2019 real GDP growth forecast significantly below consensus(see Figure 1).For its part,inflation should remain contained in most EMs.In contrast to last years monetary tightening,we foresee more EM central banks cutting rates than hiking them this year.|FOCUS 23/05/2019 3 EM forecasts ECONOMICS|EMERGING MARKETS Marcelo Carvalho,Global Head of Emerging Markets Research Luiz Eduardo Peixoto,Emerging Markets Economist|BNP Paribas London branch Fig.8:BNP Paribas forecasts for emerging markets EM aggregates for GDP growth do not include China,while CPI inflation and policy rate forecasts do not include Argentina.Colour schemes indicate regions,with blue for Latin America,green for Asia Pacific,and orange for CEEMEA.Sources:IMF and Bloomberg for 2018,BNP Paribas forecasts for 2019 and 2020 Fig.5-7:Our forecasts for change in 2019 and 2020 sample of 17 EMs 3 3 7 4 7 10 2020/192019/18CPI inflation accelerates by 0.5pp or moreCPI inflation decelerates by 0.5pp or moreStable(0.5pp up or down)5 7 12 8 2 2019/182020/19StableGDP growth deceleratesfrom previous yearGDP growth acceleratesfrom previous yearFig.5:GDP growth forecasts Fig.6:CPI inflation forecasts Fig.7:Policy rate forecasts Sources:BNP Paribas forecasts Country201820192020201820192020201820192020Argentina-2.5-1.22.534.348.024.059.2545.0020.00Brazil1.10.82.53.73.93.96.505.756.50Chile4.03.02.52.43.02.42.753.254.00China6.66.26.02.12.22.64.354.354.35Colombia2.93.53.83.23.43.54.254.505.25Czech Rep2.92.82.52.12.41.91.752.002.00Hungary4.93.42.62.93.33.00.900.900.90India7.47.67.73.43.54.26.506.006.00Indonesia5.25.05.03.22.63.06.005.755.50Malaysia4.74.34.31.01.01.53.253.002.75Mexico2.01.51.04.94.13.98.257.756.75Poland5.14.03.52.01.71.91.501.502.00Romania4.13.42.14.63.42.92.502.502.50Saudi Arabia2.32.42.22.50.31.63.003.003.00South Africa0.80.91.54.64.35.06.756.506.50Thailand4.23.63.81.11.01.01.751.751.75Turkey2.50.83.116.317.113.824.0020.0015.00EM,aggregate*,GDP weighted 3.83.33.43.83.63.55.254.914.67GDP growth(%y/y)CPI inflation(average,%y/y)Policy rate(end of period)4 3 5 8 8 6 20202019Rate hikesRate cutsStable Legal Notice This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of 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