巴克莱-美股-汽车与汽车零部件行业-2019年Q3美国汽车与汽车零部件行业预览-2019.10.2-71页.pdf

Equity Research 2 October 2019 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 65.Restricted-Internal U.S.Autos&Auto Parts 3Q19 Preview:Macro,GM strike to weigh on results 3Q earnings unlikely to provide reboot.While auto stocks enjoyed a brief rally in early September,the rally has since been sold(like so many before it)and 3-month stock performance remains largely negative.We dont see much potential for a relief rally heading into 3Q EPS,especially as global macro remains weak,and the market has so far largely looked through the GM strike with consensus earnings yet to reset.Overall macro remains soft.For 3Q19,light vehicle production in China fell 7.7%y/y(vs-5.3%ingoing),Europe-0.8%(vs+3.5%ingoing)and North America rose+1.7%(vs+1.7%ingoing).For the full year,we now expect GLVP to decline-5.4%(vs-3.6%previously)and again in 2020(Barclays-1.2%vs+0.2%previously)before slightly rebounding in 2021(Barclays+1.4%vs+1.5%previously).North America 3Q19 GM strike costs 100k units of production.The GM strike has not(contrary to initial expectations)settled quickly and the parties seem at odds on basic issues of temporary workers and plant closures which threaten the job security of the rank and file members(who are also distrustful of union leadership)while critical to GMs need for downside flexibility.The strike cost 100k units of production in 3Q,and even if settled quickly in 4Q,we still expect only 25k of production to be made up.American Axle(AXL)is the most exposed supplier,followed by Lear(LEA)and Magna(MGA).Key focus stocks into 3Q EPS:GM,AXL and LEA risk of market focusing on negative earnings revisions from GM strike.While we continue to believe GM and AXL are undervalued,and so far the market has largely looked through the strike impact,earnings revisions for 3Q19 will likely be negative;and we believe that any price weakness will be punished as hedge funds wait for negative momentum.Aptiv still the best thematic play in our view,Hyundai deal funds AV investment.While its exposure to megatrends is well understood(and increasingly appreciated by ESG investors),we believe the market underappreciates the recent investment by Hyundai into Aptivs AV effort(nuTonomy).Investors focused on the headline valuation($4bn,admittedly below Cruise and Argo),but seem to have overlooked that Hyundai is providing cash funding for 5-6 years of development expense which frees up APTVs cash for buybacks and potential tuck-in acquisitions without losing the long-term option value on autonomous robotaxis.INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S.Autos&Auto Parts NEUTRAL Unchanged For a full list of our ratings,price target and earnings changes in this report,please see table on page 2.U.S.Autos&Auto Parts Brian A.Johnson+1 212 526 5627 BCI,US Steven Hempel,CFA+1 312 609 7260 BCI,US Jason Stuhldreher+1 312 609 8183 Jason.S BCI,US Barclays|U.S.Autos&Auto Parts 2 October 2019 2 Summary of our Ratings,Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report(all changes are shown in bold)Company Rating Price Price Target EPS FY1(E)EPS FY2(E)Old New 01-Oct-19 Old New%Chg Old New%Chg Old New%Chg U.S.Autos&Auto Parts Neu Neu Adient plc(ADNT)OW OW 22.23 29.00 28.00-3 1.38 1.26-9 2.86 2.51-12 American Axle&Mfg.(AXL)OW OW 7.73 12.00 12.00-2.14 1.97-8 2.37 2.32-2 Aptiv plc(APTV)OW OW 85.11 98.00 98.00-5.21 5.12-2 5.89 5.81-1 Autoliv,Inc.(ALV)UW UW 76.06 50.00 50.00-5.93 5.76-3 6.96 6.75-3 BorgWarner Inc.(BWA)OW OW 35.93 44.00 44.00-3.84 3.76-2 4.14 3.94-5 Dana Incorporated(DAN)OW OW 14.04 22.00 22.00-3.10 3.07-1 3.38 3.16-7 Delphi Technologies PLC(DLPH)OW OW 12.55 23.00 23.00-2.75 2.67-3 2.91 2.79-4 Ford Motor(F)EW EW 8.90 10.00 10.00-1.29 1.21-6 1.55 1.41-9 Garrett Motion Inc.(GTX)EW EW 9.74 16.00 12.00-25 3.94 3.83-3 4.74 4.52-5 General Motors(GM)OW OW 36.11 51.00 48.00-6 6.92 6.59-5 7.03 6.54-7 Lear Corporation(LEA)EW EW 113.76 117.00 107.00-9 15.11 14.42-5 18.61 17.04-8 Magna International Inc.(MGA)EW EW 52.13 51.00 50.00-2 6.18 6.00-3 7.40 6.69-10 Meritor,Inc.(MTOR)EW EW 17.86 21.00 18.00-14 3.78 3.72-2 4.03 3.56-12 Sensata Technologies Holding plc(ST)OW OW 49.67 54.00 54.00-3.73 3.63-3 4.10 3.97-3 Veoneer Inc.(VNE)OW OW 14.55 22.00 21.00-5-5.13-5.12 0-3.48-3.35 4 Visteon Corp.(VC)EW EW 81.04 60.00 60.00-3.53 3.43-3 5.34 5.09-5 Source:Barclays Research.Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency.FY1(E):Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.FY2(E):Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.Stock Rating:OW:Overweight;EW:Equal Weight;UW:Underweight;RS:Rating Suspended Industry View:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:Negative Barclays|U.S.Autos&Auto Parts 2 October 2019 3 Auto stocks on the roller coaster as bad news mounts While we are increasingly negative on the global macro outlook(discussed below),with negative buy-side sentiment yet to catch up to pending sell-side earnings cuts.While auto stocks are of course cyclical higher beta names,in recent months the volatility is more of a roller coaster with violent and increasingly brief rallies and selloffs.We expect continued volatility in the stocks as earnings expectations are re-adjusted for the ongoing GM labor strike,and absent a US-China trade deal wed expect further pressure given the late-cycle nature of autos.FIGURE 1 US Autos YTD performance vs the S&P Source:Refinitiv Note:Autos index includes GNTX,APTV,ALV,BWA,LEA,AXL,TEN,DAN,GTX,VNE,ADNT,ST,DLPH,MTOR,VC,GM,F,MGA GLVP now expected to be down-5.4%in 2019 With an estimated Chinese SAAR of around 25.5m units in Q3 2019(-7%e y/y)and around 25.0m in 9M 2019(-11%e y/y),we still have no hope for any market recovery in the near term,especially in the context of an accelerated implementation of China 6 emissions standards,NEV subsidy cut for low performance vehicles and a general softening of key macro indicators.We therefore once again reduce our Chinese LVP forecasts by another-0.5m units to 24.2m in 2019(-10%e y/y vs.-8%previously)and by-1.2m units on average in 2020/21 to reflect a slower than earlier anticipated market recovery(+0.6%e in 2020 and+2.1%e in 2021).Essentially driven by much weaker key export markets(notably UK and China)impacting mainly German production and Brexit uncertainties(production disruption/soft UK market),we also reduce once again our 2019-21 LVP expectations for Europe (-2%e on average per year).We now also expect further LVP volume deterioration in 2020(-1.5%e)due to the continued uncertainties around the 2020/21 CO2 regulation that should push OEMs to focus more on their CO2 fleet mix than on volumes next year.Any inventory build-up does not seem to be on top managements agenda either.With the recent tensions in the Africa-Middle East region,we are now extremely cautious about LVP volumes in the region going into 2020/21(-13%e cut on average per year due to Iran:45%of total LVP output in the region).However,North America still remain the bright spot,with broadly unchanged 2019-21 LVP forecasts.0.900.951.001.051.101.151.201.25AutosS&PBarclays|U.S.Autos&Auto Parts 2 October 2019 4 FIGURE 2 New sales and production forecasts across regions Source:IHS,Wards,LMC,Barclays Research estimates Barclays Sales Estimates(units mn)1Q192Q193Q19E4Q19E1Q20E2Q20E3Q20E4Q20E20182019E2020E2021E2022EU.S.4.04.44.24.23.84.24.14.117.216.916.216.216.6Western Europe16.216.015.515.415.5Pan Europe(inc LCV and Russia,Turkey)20.620.119.719.820.2Greater China(ex LCV)27.124.824.525.025.8Japan 5.25.25.04.84.7Brazil2.52.72.82.93.0Rest of World21.220.420.621.121.7Global Sales 93.790.088.990.091.9Y-o-Y Change1Q192Q193Q19E4Q19E1Q20E2Q20E3Q20E4Q20E20182019E2020E2021E2022EU.S.-2.1%-1.2%-1.5%-3.0%-4.0%-6.0%-3.0%-2.0%0.5%-1.9%-3.8%0.0%2.0%Western Europe-0.3%-1.5%-2.9%-0.4%0.5%Pan Europe(inc LCV and Russia,Turkey)-0.1%-2.4%-1.8%0.7%1.6%Greater China(ex LCV)-3.1%-8.5%-1.0%2.0%3.0%Japan 0.8%1.0%-4.0%-3.5%-2.0%Brazil13.3%10.0%5.0%3.0%1.0%Rest of World0.3%-3.8%1.1%2.5%2.7%Global Sales-0.5%-3.9%-1.2%1.2%2.1%Barclays Production Estimates(units mn)1Q192Q193Q19E4Q19E1Q20E2Q20E3Q20E4Q20E20182019E2020E2021E2022ENorth America4.24.34.14.14.24.13.93.917.016.616.116.116.4Pan Europe(inc LCV and Russia,Turkey)5.65.64.65.45.45.54.75.422.021.220.921.221.4Greater China(inc LCV)6.05.55.86.95.45.95.97.226.924.224.324.825.6Japan2.42.32.32.22.32.12.32.29.29.38.98.68.6Middle East/Africa0.50.50.50.50.50.40.50.52.62.01.92.02.1South America0.80.90.90.80.80.91.00.83.43.43.53.73.8South Asia2.32.12.12.02.12.12.22.29.28.58.69.09.4South Korea0.91.10.91.01.01.00.91.04.03.93.93.93.8Total World Production22.922.121.222.821.622.021.423.294.289.188.189.391.1Y-o-Y Change1Q192Q193Q19E4Q19E1Q20E2Q20E3Q20E4Q20E20182019E2020E2021E2022ENorth America-3.4%-2.4%1.7%-3.3%-0.7%-3.0%-4.6%-4.4%-0.6%-1.9%-3.2%-0.3%1.9%Pan Europe(inc LCV and Russia,Turkey)-4.3%-6.7%-0.8%-1.7%-5.3%-1.9%2.2%0.0%-1.0%-3.6%-1.5%1.4%0.9%Greater China(inc LCV)-10.7%-18.0%-7.7%-3.8%-11.4%6.7%1.7%5.1%-4.1%-10.0%0.6%2.1%3.2%Japan0.5%4.7%7.6%-9.8%-4.8%-9.4%-3.0%1.8%0.2%0.4%-3.9%-3.0%-0.4%Middle East/Africa-30.6%-31.9%-22.1%-7.5%-7.0%-12.3%-1.5%-0.3%-1.1%-24.0%-5.2%7.5%6.7%South America-4.7%-1.5%-0.8%1.0%2.0%3.9%6.4%0.5%4.3%-1.5%3.3%5.6%4.0%South Asia-1.6%-7.6%-11.3%-8.2%-11.0%1.2%4.9%8.5%0.0%-7.1%0.5%4.6%4.5%South Korea-0.4%2.8%0.4%-6.5%5.8%-7.1%7.1%-5.7%0.0%-1.1%-0.4%-0.3%-1.8%Total World Production-5.9%-8.2%-3.2%-4.3%-5.9%-0.7%0.7%1.4%-1.4%-5.4%-1.2%1.4%2.1%Barclays|U.S.Autos&Auto Parts 2 October 2019 5 FIGURE 3 Global LVP forecasts by region Old vs.New 2019E2019E 2020E2020E 2021E2021E In m units or%In m units or%OldOld NewNew Delta,%Delta,%OldOld NewNew Delta,%Delta,%OldOld NewNew Delta,%Delta,%Europe*21.5 21.2-2%21.6 20.9-3%21.7 21.2-2%chg.-2.1%-3.6%+0.3%-1.5%+0.2%+1.4%Western Europe 13.9 13.5-3%13.9 13.3-4%13.9 13.6-2%chg.-2.9%-5.6%-0.2%-1.4%-+1.9%North America 16.7 16.6-0%16.1 16.1-16.1 16.1-0%chg.-1.6%-1.9%-3.5%-3.2%-0.3%Asia 47.1 45.9-3%47.6 45.7-4%48.7 46.4-5%chg.-4.3%-6.8%+0.9%-0.5%+2.3%+1.5%Greater China 24.7 24.2-2%25.4 24.3-4%26.2 24.8-5%chg.-7.9%-10.0%+2.5%+0.6%+3.2%+2.1%South America 3.5 3.4-2%3.7 3.6-3%3.8 3.8-%chg.+1.5%-0.9%+4.8%+4.4%+2.7%+5.6%RoW 2.0 2.0-2%2.1 1.9-12%2.3 2.0-13%chg.-21.8%-23.5%+4.1%-6.2%+7.1%+5.4%World 90.9 89.1-2%91.0 88.1-3%92.4 89.3-3%chg.-3.6%-5.4%+0.2%-1.2%+1.5%+1.4%Source:IHS Markit,Barclays Research/*Including Russia&Turkey Against this backdrop,we now expect GLVP to decline-5.4%e(vs.-3.6%previously)in 2019 and again in 2020(Barclays+-1.2%e vs.+0.2%previously)before slightly rebounding from 2021(Barclays+1.4%e vs.+1.5%previously).This should essentially be driven by a stabilization in China in 2020(after two consecutive years of LVP downturn)and a return to“normalised”growth from 2021 onwards that should more than offset anticipated volume contraction in North America and broadly stable European volumes(see figure 2).FIGURE 4 Barclays new global LVP forecasts by region In m units or%In m units or%20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015 20162016 20172017 20182018 2019E2019E 2020E2020E 2021E2021E Europe*19.0 20.2 19.3 19.5 20.2 21.0 21.5 22.2 22.0 21.2 20.9 21.2%chg.+15%+6%-4%+1%+3%+4%+3%+3%-1%-4%-1%+1%o/w Western Europe 13.2 13.7 12.6 12.7 13.3 14.2 14.7 14.8 14.3 13.5 13.3 13.6%chg.+12%+4%-8%+0%+5%+7%+3%+1%-4%-6%-1%+2%North America 11.9 13.1 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.5 17.8 17.1 17.0 16.6 16.1 16.1%chg.+39%+10%+18%+5%+5%+3%+2%-4%-1%-2%-3%-0%Asia 37.1 37.0 40.8 43.0 44.4 45.3 48.7 50.0 49.2 45.9 45.7 46.4%chg.+28%-0%+10%+5%+3%+2%+8%+3%-1%-7%-0%+2%o/w Greater China 17.1 17.6 18.6 21.3 23.0 24.0 27.4 28.0 26.9 24.2 24.3 24.8%chg.+31%+3%+5%+14%+8%+4%+14%+2%-4%-10%+1%+2%South America 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.8 3.1 2.7 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.8%chg.+13%+4%-1%+6%-15%-19%-11%+20%+4%-1%+4%+6%RoW 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.0%chg.+22%+9%-23%-13%+28%+2%+15%+14%-1%-24%-6%+5%World 74.3 76.9 81.5 84.7 87.4 88.8 93.1 95.2 94.2 89.1 88.1 89.3%chg.+25%+3%+6%+4%+3%+2%+5%+2%-1%-5%-1%+1%Source:IHS Markit,Barclays Research/*Including Russia&Turkey Shorter term,we expect GLVP to decline in H2 2019(-4%e vs.-7%in H1)despite easy comps in Europe and China.The sharp deterioration of the Indian market since last Barclays|U.S.Autos&Auto Parts 2 October 2019 6 spring has also added significant unexpected pressures to GLVP volumes in H2(H2 -16%vs.Q2-12%and Q1-3%).FIGURE 5 Barclays new quarterly global LVP forecasts by region In m units or%In m units or%Q1Q1-1919 Q2Q2-1919 H1H1-1919 Q3Q3-19E19E Q4Q4-19E19E H2H2-19E19E 2019E2019E Q1Q1-20E20E Q2Q2-20E20E H1H1-20E20E Q3Q3-20E20E Q4Q4-20E20E H2H2-20E20E 2020E2020E Europe*5.6 5.6 11.3 4.6 5.4 10.0 21.2 5.4 5.5 10.9 4.7 5.4 10.1 20.9%chg.-4%-7%-6%-1%-2%-1%-4%-5%-2%-4%+2%-+1%-1%o/w Western Europe 3.7 3.6 7.2 2.9 3.4 6.3 13.5 3.5 3.6 7.0 3.0 3.4 6.3 13.3%chg.-7%-10%-9%-3%-1%-2%-6%-6%-0%-3%+2%-+1%-1%North America 4.2 4.3 8.5 4.1 4.1 8.2 16.6 4.2 4.2 8.4 3.9 3.9 7.8 16.1%chg.-3%-2%-3%+2%-3%-1%-2%-1%-2%-2%-5%-5%-5%-3%Asia 11.7 10.9 22.7 11.1 12.1 23.2 45.9 10.7 11.0 21.7 11.4 12.6 24.0 45.7%chg.-6%-10%-8%-5%-6%-6%-7%-9%+1%-4%+2%+4%+3%-0%o/w Greater China 6.0 5.5 11.6 5.8 6.9 12.6 24.2 5.4 5.9 11.3 5.9 7.2 13.1 24.3%chg.-11%-18%-14%-8%-4%-6%-10%-11%+7%-3%+2%+5%+4%+1%South America 0.8 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.9 1.8 3.4 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.9 3.6%chg.-5%-2%-3%-0%+3%+1%-1%+2%+4%+3%+6%+6%+6%+4%RoW 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.9%chg.-31%-32%-31%-18%-10%-14%-24%-3%-1%-2%-10%-10%-10%-6%World 22.9 22.1 45.0 21.2 22.9 44.1 89.1 21.6 22.0 43.6 21.4 23.2 44.5 88.1%chg.-6%-8%-7%-3%-4%-4%-5%-6%-1%-3%+1%+1%+1%-1%Source:IHS Markit,Barclays Research/*Including Russia&Turkey Barclays|U.S.Autos&Auto Parts 2 October 2019 7 China Still little hope of recovery near term With our new round of Chinese LVP forecast,we are again slightly below the most recent IHS Markit forecasts(see figure 6).Here,we do not expect a recovery in Chinese vehicle sales and production levels in the near term(Barclays-4%e in Q4 vs.IHS Markit+0%).FIGURE 6 Barclayss new Chinese LVP forecasts vs.Latest IHS estimates In m units or%Q1Q1-1919%chg.Q2Q2-19E19E%chg.Q3Q3-19E19E%chg.Q4Q4-19E19E%chg.FYFY-19E19E%chg.Barclays 6.0-11%5.5-18%5.8-8%6.9-4%24.2-10%IHS 6.0-11%5.5-18%5.8-7%7.1+0%24.5-9%Abs.delta-(0.0)(0.3)(0.3)Source:Barclays Research,IHS Markit While trade war fears may be easing a little following the recent de-escalation between President Trump and Xi Jinping,we still expect several factors to exert downward pressure on volumes in the upcoming months such as the pull forward of China 6 emission standards implementation,highly inflated comps and the ongoing real estate inflation delaying car purchases.China 6 standards pulled forward The accelera