巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：大选追踪-20190411-42页.pdf

Please refer to important information at the end of this report ARGENTINA:ELECTION TRACKER EMERGING MARKETS April 2019 Florencia Vazquez,Economist BNP Paribas Sucursal-Buenos Aires 2 STATE OF PLAY POLLS KEY ISSUES We have updated our Argentina election tracker to include the results of new polls,data on the positive image and rejection rate of the main political figures and insight on relevant upcoming provincial elections.While the net positive image of political figures within Cambiemos has deteriorated further,President Macris approval rating has remained stable.Members of the opposition have generally not benefitted from the decline(see slides 26 and 29).The emergence of Roberto Lavagna as a potential pre-candidate for the moderate faction of the Peronist party is attracting attention.Political analysts see him as a threat to President Macri in a potential run-off(see slide 30).The format is user friendly and easy to navigate.We will update this tracker frequently to keep you abreast with the latest developments.CONTENTS KEY MESSAGES 02 03 04 CURRENT CONGRESS PARTIES AND LEADERS 04 04 LINKS TO RECENT PUBLICATIONS 3 STATE OF PLAY 2019 Election Calendar.4 Election process.5 Provincial elections:general aspects.6 Provincial elections:calendar.7 Provincial elections:highlights8 Provincial elections:details.9 Provincial governors:political affiliation.10 2019 ELECTION CALENDAR1 4 10-Registry of pollster companies for the national primaries closes 19 Polls and electoral forecasts are banned August November 2019 24 Elections(2nd round for president)October June May 22 Deadline for formal appointment of pre-candidates to compete in the primaries Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas 1.Some dates are tentative and will be confirmed later.11 National Primaries(PASO)December 10 New President takes office July 12 Electoral campaign for the national primaries starts 27-Ballot locations are assigned and made public September 13-Formal invitation to the mandatory presidential debate 22 Electoral campaign for the general election starts 27 Official registry of voters is published 2 First day of electoral campaign on TV,radio and in newspapers 27 Elections (1st round for president and legislative)12 Deadline for formal appointment of political alliances Primaries are mandatory.They are relevant as they are as good as live polls and are thus a good proxy for the actual election result as voters are required to vote for only one candidate.Any candidate who wins at least 1.5%of the valid votes in the primaries can contest the election.The primary provides valuable information that can be used to improve performance in the October first-round vote(especially for the ruling party).5 Parliamentary elections are held on the same date as the first round of the presidential election.In 2019,elections will be held for one-third of the Senate and half of the lower chamber.With no party likely to hold a majority in Congress,alliances will have to be made to pass legislation.Legislative elections-For a candidate to win the presidential election in the first round he/she needs to secure either 45%of the valid votes;or,at least 40%of the valid votes with a difference of at least 10pp versus the runner-up.-For all other outcome,a second round needs to take place.We think a second round is likely to be needed this year.Presidential election Primaries(PASO)NATIONAL ELECTION PROCESS AND FEATURES Source:BNP Paribas PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:GENERAL ASPECTS 6 Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Buenos Aires province(15.6)Crdoba(3.3)Santa Fe(3.2)Buenos Aires autonomous city(2.9)Mendoza(1.7)Tucumn(1.5)Entre Ros(1.2)Salta(1.2)Misiones(1.1)Provincia del Chaco(1.1)Corrientes(1.0)Santiago del Estero(0.9)San Juan(0.7)Jujuy(0.7)Ro Negro(0.6)Neuqun(0.6)Formosa(0.5)Chubut(0.5)San Luis(0.4)Catamarca(0.4)La Rioja(0.3)La Pampa(0.3)Santa Cruz(0.3)Tierra del Fuego(0.0)ARGENTINIAN PROVINCES(IN MILLIONS OF INHABITANTS)Watch for:The race in the province of Buenos Aires,which has the largest population(39%)of Argentinians WHICH:All provinces,excluding Corrientes and Santiago del Estero which had gubernatorial elections in 2017,will elect governor and local legislators.There are no elections in Santiago del Estero this year.TIMING:Most provinces have decided to separate local elections from the presidential election in 2019.The province of Buenos Aires has recently decided not to separate the two.Given governor Maria Eugenia Vidals popularity,this decision could boost the chances of President Macri getting re-elected as almost 40%of Argentinians live in the province.UPCOMING PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:CALENDAR&RESULTS 7 Sources:La Nacion,BNP Paribas Province Governor Legislative Primaries Result Participation Neuqun March 10 No primaries MPN(local movement)78.4%Ro Negro April 7 None Crdoba May 12 None La Rioja May 12 None La Pampa May 19 Feb 17 Corrientes no June 2 San Juan June 2 March 31 Misiones June 2 None Chubut June 9 April 7 Entre Ros June 9 April 14 Jujuy June 9 None Tucumn June 9 San Luis June 16 April 21 Santa Fe June 16 April 28 T.del Fuego June 16 None Mendoza September 29 June 9 Formosa October 27 August 11 Buenos Aires October 27 August 11 CABA October 27 August 11 Salta October 27 August 11 Santa Cruz October 27 No primaries Chaco TBC Catamarca TBD None S.Del Estero No elections this year None UPDATED The election in Neuqun attracted a lot of attention as(1)it was the first;(2)it is where the Vaca Muerta shale field is located;and(3)former President Cristina Kirchner(and a potential presidential candidate this year)had openly endorsed one of the candidates.Even though the Cambiemos candidate lost,the result was positive for the ruling coalition.UPCOMING PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:HIGHLIGHTS 8 Sources:La Nacion,BNP Paribas NEW The election in Crdoba(May 12)will be in the spotlight,given the size of the province(second largest)and the relevance it had for President Macris victory in 2015.The leading candidates for governor are:1)Juan Schiaretti:candidate for the“Hacemos por Crdoba”front(that includes the Peronist party and GEN,among other parties)and current governor of the province.2)Mario Negri:candidate for the Crdoba Cambia front(Cambiemos).3)Ramn Mestre:candidate for the UCR.The last two candidates belong to the Cambiemos coalition.The lack of an agreement on who should be the gubernatorial candidate resulted in Cambiemos and the UCR fielding one candidate each.This could prove to be beneficial for Schiaretti,who is seeking a re-election.However,at the national level this need not hurt President Macris vote intentions.PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:DETAILS 9 Province Governor Senators Legislators Buenos Aires yes 23 46 CABA yes N/A 30 Catamarca yes 8 20 Chaco yes N/A 16 Chubut yes N/A 27 Crdoba yes N/A 70 Corrientes no 5 15 Entre Ros yes 17 34 Formosa yes N/A 15 Jujuy yes N/A 24 La Pampa yes N/A 30 La Rioja yes N/A 18 Province Governor Senators Legislators Mendoza yes 19 24 Misiones yes N/A 20 Neuqun yes N/A 35 Ro Negro yes N/A 46 S.del Estero no N/A 0 Salta yes 11 30 San Juan yes 0 36 San Luis yes 5 21 Santa Cruz yes 0 24 Santa Fe yes 19 50 T.del Fuego yes N/A 15 Tucumn yes N/A 49 Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas Re-election rules for governors:PROVINCIAL RE-ELECTION RULES 3 provinces allow INDEFINITE re-election:Catamarca,Formosa,Santa Cruz.2 provinces allow governors to be re-elected for two additional terms:Salta,San Juan.17 provinces allow governors to be re-elected for one additional term:Buenos Aires,CABA,Chaco,Chubut,Crdoba,Corrientes,Entre Ros,Jujuy,La Pampa,La Rioja,Misiones,Neuqun,Ro Negro,San Luis,S.del Estero,T.del Fuego,Tucumn 2 provinces allow governors to be re-elected but not for consecutive terms:Mendoza,Santa Fe.19.0 9.2 0.4 3.2 5.3 PARTY AFFILIATION OF PROVINCIAL GOVERNORS 10 Sources:Direccin Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas 4 12 1 1 5 POLITICAL PARTY AFFILIATION OF ARGENTINAS 23 PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS In millions governed In number of provinces Cambiemos and provincial allies Buenos Aires Corrientes Jujuy Mendoza Catamarca Chaco Entre Ros Formosa La Rioja Misiones Salta San Juan Santa Cruz T.del Fuego Tucuman S.del Estero Compromiso Federal San Luis Progresistas Santa Fe No national alliance Chubut Crdoba La Pampa Neuqun Ro Negro Peronist party (Frente para la Victoria)11 POLLS Presidents job approval rating.12 Voting intentions:first round.6 Voting intentions:second round.4 Rejection rates.5 Voting intentions by coalition.6 PRESIDENTS APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL RATINGS IN 2018 12 Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL RATINGS (%of total)4839333934506065596521221020406080100120Jan-Apr 18May-Aug 18Sep-Nov 18Dec 18Jan 19ApprovesDisapprovesUncertainUPDATED PERONIST PARTY LEADERS AND THEIR IMAGE 13 Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas 10 28 35 25 24 24 19 39 33 22 18 37 33 25 24 26 31 48 46 34 27 20 12 14 26 3 2 3 15 30 44 21 0%20%40%60%80%100%M.A.PichettoD.ScioliC.KirchnerS.MassaF.SolaJ.M.UrtubeyJ.SchiarettiR.LavagnaPositive(1)RegularNegative(2)UndecidedNet positive:difference(1)-(2)2674-3-9-11-19-20Former president Cristina Kirchner remains polling among the most rejected candidates,despite solid backing from around a third of the electorate PERONIST PARTY LEADERS(%of total,December 2018)VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:FIRST ROUND 14 Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas 4.9 7.3 7.1 5 6.6 13.9 26 29.3 UndecidedOtherNull/BlankS.Massa(PJ)R.Lavagna(PJ)J.M.Urtubey(PJ)Cristina F.Kirchner(FPV)Mauricio Macri(Cambiemos)VOTING INTENTIONS (%of total,November 2018)VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:SECOND ROUND 15 VOTING PROSPECTS(%of total)Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas 41 43 41 45 40 38 36 43 36 37 21 21 16 19 23 Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-19Mauricio Macri(Cambiemos)Cristina F.Kirchner(FPV)Undecided,blank,ornull REJECTION RATES 16 I WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR(%of total)Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas 48%60%54%42%35%38%5%25%16%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Oct 18Nov 18Dec 18Jan 19Cristina F.KirchnerMauricio MacriDifference VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:FIRST ROUND 17 WHO WOULD YOU LIKE TO BE ARGENTINAS NEXT PRESIDENT?(January 2019)Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas%of votes M.Macri 15 M.E.Vidal 16 E.Carri 4 CAMBIEMOS total 35 C.Kirchner 22 A.Kicillof 6 A.Rossi 1 KIRCHNERISM total 29 S.Massa 12 J.M.Urtubey 6 M.A.Pichetto 1 PERONIST party total 18 Other 7 Undecided 10 Total 100 Mr Massa and Mr Urtubey have publicly expressed their intentions to run for president in 2019 UPDATED 18 KEY ISSUES FOR THE ELECTORATE Confidence in government.23 Views on fiscal adjustment.24 View on Argentinas current situation.25 Expectations over the future.26 Main problems for voters.27 CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENT 19 Sources:UTDT,BNP Paribas UPDATED 010203040506070Jan 02Jan 05Jan 08Jan 11Jan 14Jan 172015 presidentialelection VOTERS VIEWS ON FISCAL ADJUSTMENT 20 Sources:DAlessio IROL Berensztein,BNP Paribas 8 14 1 37 59 14 46 19 75 9 8 10 TotalCambiemos votersFPV votersGoodEvil but necessaryEvil and unnecessaryOtherHow voters view the fiscal adjustment proposed in the 2019 budget bill(December 2018)HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE GENERAL SITUATION OF THE COUNTRY?21 Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas 22 13 9 11 39 32 27 31 38 54 64 58 0%25%50%75%100%Jan-AprMay-AugSep-NovDecWill improveSameWill worsen HOW DO YOU SEE THE GENERAL SITUATION OF THE COUNTRY IN A YEAR?22 Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas 42 37 36 38 20 19 18 21 35 40 42 39 Jan-AprMay-AugSep-NovDecWill deteriorateUnchangedWill improve ARGENTINAS MAIN PROBLEM 23 WHAT DO YOU THINK IS ARGENTINAS MAIN PROBLEM?(December 2018)Sources:Poliarqua,BNP Paribas Poll date:3-14 December,2018.Cases:1000.Margin of error:+/-3.2%.Economic 51%Political/institutional 25%Public safety 14%Social 10%of total Economic issues:19%Unemployment:11%Inflation:10%Resource mismanagement:2%Indebtedness/IMF:2%Low wages:1%The Federal Government:9%Corruption:9%The ruling class:3%Lack of justice:1%Public safety:11%Drug traffic:1%Poverty:3%Education:3%Poor income distribution:1%Subsidies/social plans:1%Argentine way of thinking:1%24 PARTIES Cambiemos(ruling coalition).25 Cambiemos:leaders,by public image.26 Frente Unidad Ciudadana(left-wing opposition)27 Peronist party(PJ).28 Opposition leaders,by public image.29 Opposition leaders:Roberto Lavagna.30 Public image of Peronist party leaders.13 CAMBIEMOS 25 Centre-right coalition created in 2015 Likely candidate:Current president Mauricio Macri Parties currently in the coalition:Economic policies/philosophy:Since taking office in 2015,President Macri has liberalised the FX market,reduced subsidies on energy tariffs and implemented a gradual fiscal adjustment that had to be accelerated in 2018-19.The lack of market access since Q2 2018 prompted the government to secure a USD57bn package from the IMF.Seats in Congress:Senate:26/72.Lower chamber:108/257.Party leaders:Mauricio Macri(PRO),Alfredo Cornejo(UCR),Elisa Carri(CC-ARI),Mara Eugenia Vidal(PRO).POLITICAL LEADERS(CAMBIEMOS):NET POSITIVE IMAGE 26 Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas UPDATED-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%mar-18abr-18may-18jun-18jul-18ago-18sep-18oct-18nov-18dic-18ene-19feb-19mar-19CarriMacriVidal FRENTE UNIDAD CIUDADANA 27 Economic policies/philosophy:The motivation behind the party is to“unite the citizens to limit the power of President Mauricio Macri and to prevent the elimination of social rights approved(during the past administrations)”.Plans to propose that no legislator within the party will vote against the partys political agenda(unlike some Peronist legislators).Created after former President Cristina Kirchner finished her term,as a spin-off to the Peronist party.Seats in Congress:Senate:9/72 Lower chamber:64/257 Party leader:Cristina Fernndez de Kirchner(Partido de la Victoria).Left-wing coalition created In 2017 Likely candidate:Former President Cristina Kirchner Parties in the coalition:Centrist,big-tent coalition Potential candidates:1.Roberto Lavagna 2.J.M.Urtubey 3.A.Rossi 4.Sergio Massa Parties in the coalition:PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA 28 Economic policies/philosophy:Originally known as the Peronist party,it was founded by General Pern in 1946.Its current name was adopted in 1971.Since social justice has been the partys main goal,it has traditionally been close to labor unions and workers.It is the party with the largest number of affiliates(around 3.5 million in 2017).Seats in Congress:Senate:23/72.Lower chamber:37/257.Party leaders:Miguel Pichetto and Diego Bossio.POLITICAL LEADERS(OPPOSITION):NET POSITIVE IMAGE 29 Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas UPDATED-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%mar-18abr-18may-18jun-18jul-18ago-18sep-18oct-18nov-18dic-18ene-19feb-19mar-19CFKLavagnaUrtubey POLITICAL LEADERS(OPPOSITION):ROBERTO LAVAGNA 30 Sources:La Nacion,BNP Paribas NEW Roberto Lavagna is being increasingly rumoured as the potential pre-candidate of the moderate faction of the Peronist party.Whether he will contest the primary with other pre-candidates within the moderate faction remains uncertain.Loca