巴克莱-全球-食品行业-全球食品业：我不敢相信这不是肉-2019.5.22-92页 (2).pdf

*For l i st of aut hor s,see page 2.Bar cl ays Capi t al I nc.and/or one of i t s affi l i at es does and seeks t o do busi ness wi t h c ompani es c over ed i n i t s r esear ch r epor t s.As a r esul t,i nvest or s shoul d be awar e t hat t he f i r m may have a c onf l i c t of i nt er est t hat c oul d affec t t he obj ec t i vi t y of t hi s r epor t.I nvest or s shoul d c onsi der t hi s r epor t as onl y a si ngl e f ac t or i n maki ng t hei r i nvest ment deci si on.Thi s r esear ch r epor t has been pr epar ed i n whol e or i n par t by equi t y r esear ch anal yst s based out si de t he US who ar e not r egi st er ed/qual i f i ed as r esear ch anal yst s wi t h FI NRA.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 86.SI GNATURE#f oodr evol ut i on#t r ansat l ant i cGl obal Food I Can t Believe It s Not Meat What has been achieved so far in terms of“meatless”ground beef has yielded positive initial consumer reaction.While still an underdeveloped category,the alternative meat space in our view presents plenty of opportunities;new and incumbent players could grab 10%of the$1.4tn meat market in 10 years.Americas Agribusiness*U.S.Food*U.S.Restaurants*European Consumer Staples*Equi t y Resear ch 22 May 2019Barclays|Global Food 22 May 2019 2 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.3 SAVING THE PLANET ONE BITE AT A TIME.4 Why we believe the likes of Beyond Meat,Impossible Foods and others can gain mainstream appeal.5 ALTERNATIVE MEATS AS A SOURCE OF GROWTH.7 Why alternative meat could be a real alternative.7 Initial perception of consumers.10 A sizeable market everyone wants a bite of.10 Key players in the space.12 Potential issues of adoption.24 What happens when meat turns out not to be meat?.24 The reception.29 RISKS&OPPORTUNITIES.43 Consumer confidence and purchasing power.43 Regulation.47 BACKGROUND AND MAIN DRIVERS.52 State of the game.52 The diet transformation.53 Current state:Drivers of alternative meat consumption.60 Appendix.85 Americas Agribusiness Benjamin M.Theurer+52 55 5241 3322 BBMX,Mexico Antonio Hernandez+52 55 5241 3323 BBMX,Mexico U.S.Food Andrew Lazar+1 212 526 4668 BCI,US U.S.Restaurants Jeffrey A.Bernstein+1 212 526 3855 BCI,US European Consumer Staples Warren Ackerman+44(0)20 3134 1903 Barclays,UK Barclays|Global Food 22 May 2019 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We estimate that the market for alternative meat can reach$140bn over the next ten years,with alternative meat players capturing 10%of the$1.4tn global meat industry,based on our analysis.Although today we believe that there are inherent barriers to successfully replicating certain animal-based consumer favorites(e.g.,T-bone steaks),what has been achieved so far in terms of“meatless”ground beef,sausage and hamburger products has yielded positive initial consumer reaction,which should bode well for the alternative meat sector to grab its fair share of the global meat market.Food for thought and key takeaways:Investors and incumbents alike are intrigued by the emerging sector.While large incumbents such as TSN,K,KHC,CAG,Nestle and Kerry,among others,have either invested in plant-based meat alternatives or have developed their own,others continue to partner up with California-based food technology startups in an attempt to take part in their early-stage success(e.g.,Cargills investment in Memphis Meats).And restaurants have the potential to be large sellers of the product.Most recently,Restaurant Brands International launched tests with both Beyond Meat(at Tim Hortons)and Impossible Burger(at Burger King),with companies such as McDonalds paying close attention.Beyond Meats very strong IPO performance(up 160%+on the first day of trading vs.the S&P 500-0.2%)further underscores the investor interest in the space.Not all meat alternatives are created equal.Cultured,clean,fake,mock,meatless,or alternative meat regardless of nomenclature(and consumer bias),these options have been steadily closing the gap vs.animal-based meat in recent years.While lab-based meat is still likely several years away from hitting supermarket shelves,plant-based protein continues to gain ground vs.its animal-based counterpart,and we expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future.Is a disruptive player emerging in a traditional industry?While we see some parallels to electric vehicle companies disruption of the car industry,we believe that the ultimate market opportunity for plant-based(and perhaps lab-based)protein is potentially even larger given the mainstream appeal of affordable food products relative to the current high-end,niche audience targeted by electric vehicle manufacturers.With that said,we believe taste and price will ultimately dictate whether or not alternative meat gains widespread acceptance.Producers must target(and win over)the biggest consumers of meat.To make any meat alternative successful,companies need to appeal to the group that drives meat consumption,with animal protein intake levels above the recommended range:14-to 70-year-old males.Successful adoption of alternative meat by this group could lead to the categorys success,as intake from men is not only higher relative to women and men at other ages,but also in absolute terms.Saving the planet(and waistlines)one bite at a time.With consumers becoming increasingly aware of the environmental,animal welfare,and health&wellness impacts from the consumption of traditional meat,we believe there is enough evidence indicating that alternative meats are not merely a fad.However,there are risk factors to consider,such as alternative meat products being less healthy than claimed as a result of additives to appeal to consumer tastes or potential regulatory restrictions that constrain the marketing strategy.Alternative meat does not win on all fronts,but it clearly has an edge.In addressing these concerns,alternative meat,in our view,is not a clear winner.Lab-based meat production doesnt harm animals,so it clearly wins on animal welfare.To address environmental concerns,alternative meat has some partial edge,as long as rising demand for alternative plant-based protein sources does not take its toll on the environment.Finally,alternative meat products can only partially address health&wellness concerns,as they have lower cholesterol levels but higher amounts of sodium.With health&wellness top of mind for consumers,food companies still have plenty to do.Got Veggies?To turn this niche into a mainstream category,a joint effort between food companies,restaurants and retailers is critical.We believe that a broad marketing strategy educating consumers on the benefits of alternative meat via an“Inconvenient Truth”-style documentary,combined with visually appealing and edgy advertising la the“Got Milk?”campaign,could be the ingredients that enable alternative meat to become a main course on the menu.Barclays|Global Food 22 May 2019 4 SAVING THE PLANET ONE BITE AT A TIME Plant-and lab-based meat companies have promoted their products as superior to any existing animal-based option on multiple fronts:They are healthier for humans,considerate of animal welfare,and can help to slow climate change.The latter problem has been particularly widely overlooked;we argued in an earlier report that meat alternatives could be one way to support the international community in reaching its 2050 climate goals,but we also concluded that no one solution fixes all.Animal welfare is clearly addressed by these products,but the picture is less clear when it comes to the claim of being healthier.What we believe is needed to tackle the climate change issue We drew our main conclusions earlier this year in our report Global Agriculture:Winds of change:the next environmental debate(February 11,2019),and clearly agriculture and livestock(cattle farming in particular)have a significant impact on greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,which is estimated to be responsible for about 9%of all humanly induced GHG emissions.We stated in the report that population growth,increasing incomes and the westernisation of diets mean that demand for beef is only set to increase.All else being equal,we estimate that over the next 30 years this will add another 15%to todays methane emissions and 5%to the total world carbon footprint.Some of the takeaways from the prior report that are most relevant for any discussion of alternative meat solutions can be summarized as follows:In order to reduce global GHG emissions,a combined effort from players across the value chain is required.The agricultural sectors emissions could be reduced by approximately 30%if producers in a given system,region and agro-ecological zone applied the practices of the most efficient 10%of producers.So to save the planet,other measures can and should be applied,too.A change in consumer behaviour may be required to meet the climate targets.Beef consumption is expected to further increase globally,driven by population growth in the emerging markets.At the same time,per capita consumption is in decline in the Western world.Switching from 1kg of beef to 1kg of pork or chicken could reduce the associated emissions by 88%.This is likely close to the reduction you can get by switching from beef patties to pea patties,and in our view may be even healthier.Plant-based(and for sure lab-based)has its shortfalls as well The rise of plant-based food can still cause significant climate stress for example the huge rise in demand for palm oil is encouraging further illegal deforestation to make way for plantations,and such activity contributes to climate change and threatens the habitat of many species.Palm oil is used in hundreds of different consumer products from lipstick to chocolate and is a key ingredient in many edible processed products.Lab-based food currently requires a massive amount of energy to replicate in laboratories what is done by Mother Nature in animals;thus,producing enough energy to feed the world with lab-grown meat would currently be more detrimental to the climate than burping cows.Barclays|Global Food 22 May 2019 5 Why we believe the likes of Beyond Meat,Impossible Foods and others can gain mainstream appeal Perhaps the character Norm from the classic sitcom Cheers was on to something when he frequented a restaurant called The Hungry Heifer a place that sells processed,synthetic,meat-like substances called“beff”and“loobster”.While this episode was absolutely hilarious(in our humble opinion),the potential opportunity for plant-based(and maybe even lab-based)protein is no laughing matter.The global meat market(estimated at c.$1.4tn),and in particular the U.S.meat market(c.$270bn),has continued to show attractive growth rates in recent years,and animal-based protein consumption is expected to rise further.That said,animal-based protein is becoming increasingly controversial given it is seen by some as one of the most important sources of greenhouse gas emissions,is energy intensive,and generates a lot of waste,not to mention its association with health concerns.As such,in our view,adopting a diet with less animal protein is motivated by a combination of different reasons,but we identify three main drivers:animal welfare,health&wellness,and environmental concerns.We believe that alternative meat can reach a market share of 10%of the global meat industry in 10 years versus a current share of less than 5%in the U.S.and less than 1%on a global basis.Our initial estimates are based on modeling for market share in what we consider the analog categories of plant-based dairy(13%market share),craft beer in the U.S.(12%market share),and craft spirits(currently just 4%market share but expected to reach 8%by 2022;see Identifying global premium growth,April 1,2019).Our work suggests a potential market size of$140bn by 2029 from less than$14bn today.In fact,we believe that there is a bigger market opportunity for plant-based(and maybe even lab-based)protein than perhaps was argued for electric vehicles ten years ago with an increasingly mainstream appeal compared with electric vehicles high-end,niche clientele.That said,there are limits to reaching a much higher share:It will likely be too complicated and costly to replicate with plants a T-bone steak,for example.For now,our market share assumptions only consider a potential replacement of traditional meat categories like sausages,ground beef,burgers or similar,but as these comprise the majority of meat consumption,the potential market size is still large enough.And who knows:Technology might surprise us someday in the future with a tasty lab-grown steak.So too do we remain more cautious on lab-grown meat,as we believe consumer adoption and regulatory approvals are more challenging,and even some ethical questions may arise.During an event some weeks ago we ran a small survey and 70%of participants said that they would not consider eating lab-based meat;there is possibly more reticence toward something grown in a lab than toward taking ingredients only from plants,which are perceived as a natural and nutritious way to source energy.We have seen some large food players,such as TSN,K,KHC,and CAG in the U.S.and Nestle and Kerry in Europe,among others,start their own investments in meat alternatives,or become increasingly active with their own plant-based meat alternatives.We have also seen some opt to partner up with California-based startups to take part in their very particular success story.We have heard some concerns about the large players ability to succeed in a fast-growing niche such as plant-based meat notably,that they“cant represent the genuine spirit of an alternative product”or“have been doing the same things without innovation for too many decades.”On the first,we believe people may not know which specific product was produced by Conagra,Tyson,Hormel,Kerry or Nestle anyway,and hence we believe that there might be an opportunity for large incumbents to not fall behind and grab some share Barclays|Global Food 22 May 2019 6 of the rapidly growing alternative meat market.On the second,we would point to the notion that spirits segment companies have been able to develop successful craft spirits,though to be fair,in beer,large companies in the space havent been able to fully replicate the success of craft beer.In our view,restaurants and retailers are needed allies.Restaurants have been slow to move away from the core beef platform,especially in the quick service segment.Nonetheless,we have seen salads and veggie burgers make their way onto the menu.Burger King is the first to announce plans for a national rollout of an Impossible Whopper,and McDonalds is an 800lb gorilla paying“close attention”to these platforms,with some initiatives already taking place in Europe.At the same time,smaller brands such as Bareburger,BurgerFi,Carls Jr,White Castle and Del Taco,among others,are testing alternative meats.Retailers have similarly started to feature more alternative meat options,increasingly locating these products close to ani