巴克莱-美股-软件行业-2019年Q1美国软件业业绩指南-2019.4.12-64页.pdf

Equity Research 12 April 2019 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 58.Restricted-Internal U.S.Software The Q1 Earnings Guide Seasonally Small Quarter After Big Run:We are not sure whether the Q1 earnings season will necessarily provide a short term catalysts to extend the strong software performance year-to-date(21%vs.S&P 500 of 15%).Q1 is seasonally the smallest quarter and SaaS vendors will also suffer from the Q4 compounding effect(more renewals in Q4,optically impacting Q1).With that in mind,the end demand data points from our US VAR survey remain upbeat which should help maintain high interest in the space.Finally,we also expect more companies to discuss ARR and RPO metrics,which is something that is still new to many investors.VAR Survey Surprisingly Better Outlook:Our survey(see March VAR Survey,12 Apr 2019)suggests healthy Q1 software spending.The bigger surprise though is the increased confidence for the short and especially long-term outlook.This seems unusual given that we are still at the beginning of the year and in a lighter quarter.We see this as a positive sign that US end demand remains very resilient.Looking at individual company results,we note that MSFT results,despite tough comps remain positive.CTXS showed another quarter of moderation,and SYMC improved.Stock Pickers Market In Q1:Given that Q1 is a smaller quarter for software we need to look at special situations to identify names with a favorable set up.Very conservative guidance should help Five9.Paycom will benefit from the filings required around tax season and often sees larger than expected Q1 benefits.Lastly,simply delivering a solid Q1 should help Talend continue its recovery journey.Special Attention For Some Names Needed:With recent management turnover and slowing economic activity in Europe we would be cautious on SAP in the Q1 earnings season.The channel data points for Citrix continue to moderate.Lastly,we hope that the new CFO will de-risk Avayas full year guidance which could create a short-term headwind for the shares.In large cap security,we like setups on CHKP and SYMC,both on improving checks.This is SYMCs seasonally strongest quarter,and our VAR survey shows more partners were in line to ahead of plan compared to last quarter,and qualitatively exhibited less discounting.Furthermore,FY20 guide is arguably de-risked in our view after 3Q and so we wonder if the idea of“Rule of 40”in FY20 starts to resonate.We also like CHKP into this print with improving checks after CHKPs new channel hires.Furthermore,we think billings and product have easy comparables with new appliances that could help.In mid-cap security,we like setups on FEYE and MIME;in design,we are cautiously optimistic on PTC.In mid-cap,we like the setup on FEYE given the stocks first quarter of Expertise-on-demand,which had a good start in limited availability during 4Q.We also like MIMEs setup as we expect success up-market to continue,and the FY20 guide is de-risked.We are cautiously optimistic on PTC based on checks indicating good CAD/PLM flow business,and at least one large deal closure against a de-risked guide.INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S.Software POSITIVE Unchanged For a full list of our ratings,price target and earnings changes in this report,please see table on page 2.U.S.Software Raimo Lenschow,CFA+1 212 526 2712 BCI,US Saket Kalia,CFA+1 212 526 8465 BCI,US Pree Gadey+1 212 526 3156 BCI,US Mohit Gogia+1 212 526 1053 BCI,US Michael Maguire+1 212 526-8682 BCI,US David Rainville+1 212 526 9318 BCI,US David Fisher,CFA+1 212 526 7126 BCI,US Andrew Thomas+1 212 526 8081 BCI,US Barclays|U.S.Software 12 April 2019 2 Summary of our Ratings,Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report(all changes are shown in bold)Company Rating Price Price Target EPS FY1(E)EPS FY2(E)Old New 11-Apr-19 Old New%Chg Old New%Chg Old New%Chg U.S.Software Pos Pos Appian Corporation(APPN)EW EW 32.32 31.00 34.00 10-0.43-0.43-0.20-0.20-Ceridian HCM Holding Inc.(CDAY)EW EW 51.59 44.00 49.00 11 0.44 0.44-0.62 0.62-Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.(CHKP)EW EW 125.81 120.00 135.00 13 6.04 6.04-6.51 6.51-CyberArk Software(CYBR)EW EW 119.54 112.00 122.00 9 1.99 1.99-2.51 2.51-Microsoft Corp.(MSFT)OW OW 120.33 120.00 132.00 10 4.36 4.35 0 4.84 4.91 1 Paycom(PAYC)EW EW 188.58 160.00 175.00 9 3.17 3.17-4.05 4.05-Rapid7(RPD)OW OW 52.36 48.00 61.00 27 0.05 0.05-0.42 0.42-ServiceNow,Inc.(NOW)OW OW 245.77 235.00 270.00 15 2.91 3.07 5 3.89 3.97 2 Varonis Systems,Inc.(VRNS)EW EW 61.26 51.00 65.00 27 0.11 0.11-0.33-0.33-Source:Barclays Research.Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency.FY1(E):Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.FY2(E):Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.Stock Rating:OW:Overweight;EW:Equal Weight;UW:Underweight;RS:Rating Suspended Industry View:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:Negative Barclays|U.S.Software 12 April 2019 3 CONTENTS EARNINGS CALENDAR.5 VALUATION AND PRICE PERFORMANCE.6 ANSYS,INC.(UW/POS,PT$171).8 APPIAN(EW/POS,PT$34).9 AVAYA(OW/POS,PT$21).10 CARBONITE(OW/POS,PT$30).11 CERIDIAN(EW/POS,PT$49).12 CHECKPOINT SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES(EW/POS,PT$135).13 CITRIX(EW/POS,PT$115).14 CORNERSTONE(UW/POS,PT$50).15 CYBERARK(EW/POS,PT$122).16 FIREEYE(EW/POS,PT$20).17 FIVE9(EW/POS,PT$57).18 FORTINET(EW/POS,PT$92).19 LIVEPERSON(OW/POS,PT$35).20 LOGMEIN(UW/POS,PT$74).21 MICROSOFT(OW/POS,PT$132).22 MIMECAST LTD.(OW/POS,PT$53).24 MOBILEIRON(UW/POS,PT$5).25 NUANCE(OW/POS,PT$20).26 PAYCOM(EW/POS,PT$175).27 PLURALSIGHT(OW/POS,PT$36).28 PTC(OW/POS,PT$104).29 RAPID7(OW/POS,PT$61).30 SAP(OW/POS,PT$123).31 SERVICENOW(OW/POS,PT$270).32 Barclays|U.S.Software 12 April 2019 4 SOLARWINDS(EW/POS,PT$18).33 SYMANTEC(EW/POS,PT$24).34 TABLEAU(OW/POS,PT$137).35 TALEND(OW/POS,PT$70).36 TERADATA(UW/POS,PT$34).37 VARONIS SYSTEMS,INC.(EW/POS,PT$65).39 Barclays|U.S.Software 12 April 2019 5 EARNINGS CALENDAR FIGURE 1 Q1 2019 Earnings Calendar *Estimated Date Source:Refinitiv,Barclays Research 15-Apr16-Apr17-Apr18-Apr19-AprCHKP Earnings22-Apr23-AprSAP Earnings24-Apr25-Apr26-AprMSFT EarningsNOW EarningsLOGM EarningsSWI EarningsMOBL Earnings*CTXS Earnings*PTC Earnings29-Apr30-Apr1-MayDATA Earnings2-May3-MayAPPN EarningsVRNS EarningsPAYC EarningsFIVN EarningsTDC EarningsFEYE EarningsLPSN Earnings*FTNT EarningsRPD Earnings6-May7-May8-May9-May10-MayCSOD EarningsTLND EarningsAVYA Earnings*CDAY Earnings*SYMC Earnings13-May14-May15-May16-May17-MayCYBR EarningsMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridayBarclays|U.S.Software 12 April 2019 6 VALUATION AND PRICE PERFORMANCE FIGURE 2 Valuation Table Source:Barclays Research,Refinitiv.Stock prices as of April 11,2019*Covered by US Software Analyst Saket Kalia CurrentPriceMarket CapCategoryCompanyRatingpricetargetUSD($,mn)2019E2020E2019E2020E2019E2020ELarge capIntuitEW259.5922570,73337.6x32.4x10.1x9.2x32.1x27.7xMicrosoftOW120.33132934,72326.0 x22.9x6.8x6.1x24.4x20.7xOracleEW53.7955194,55814.7x13.7x5.3x5.1x12.6x11.7xSAPOW112.33123134,45919.8x18.2x4.4x4.0 x35.6x26.5xEnterpise SaaSAnaplanEW35.55385,439nmnm16.7x13.2xnmnmAppianEW32.32342,242nmnm8.2x6.9xnmnmCeridianEW51.59497,721nm83.6x10.0 x8.8xnmnmCoupaEW95.70866,708nmnm20.5x16.7xnmnmCornerstoneUW54.74503,51646.2x35.6x6.1x5.3x39.6x31.9xFive9EW51.00573,34383.5x49.4x10.8x9.1xnmnmLivePersonOW29.55352,090nmnm7.0 x5.8xnmnmLogMeInUW83.44744,38716.9x17.8x3.5x3.4x12.6x13.6xPaycomEW188.5817511,03459.5x46.5x15.5x12.5x58.1x42.7xSalesforceOW160.73180129,41558.4x48.3x8.0 x6.8x37.2x30.8xServiceNowOW245.7727048,42080.0 x61.9x13.9x11.0 x49.1x37.8xWorkdayEW195.8718747,863nm91.2x13.4x10.9xnm74.6xBig DataClouderaEW11.44143,491nm64.5x3.8x2.9xnm37.1xElasticOW82.851077,786nmnm22.5x16.9xnmnmMongoDBOW143.711439,253nmnm25.0 x18.9xnmnmSplunkOW135.3815821,68681.4x61.6x9.4x7.7x77.4x40.8xTableauOW125.4113711,52076.2x55.2x7.7x6.5x48.6x27.8xTalendOW52.17701,663nmnm6.3x5.3xnmnmTeradataUW43.81345,32429.7x20.5x2.5x2.3x31.7x20.6xInfrastructureAvayaOW18.67212,1215.2x5.4x1.4x1.4x10.4x9.3xCitrixEW101.9111513,99816.7x15.2x4.6x4.4x14.3x13.3xMobileIronUW5.485639nmnm2.5x2.3x34.4x21.2xPivotalEW19.95216,043nmnm6.8x5.6xnmnmRed HatOW182.5016633,44147.2x40.8x8.3x7.2x28.4x24.2xSolarWindsEW18.99185,84623.9x20.5x8.0 x7.1x18.0 x15.9xVMwareOW192.4420082,24629.7x26.5x8.4x7.7x23.1x20.6xVertical SaaS*CarboniteOW25.153091514.0 x11.7x1.7x1.4x14.4x8.9x*Ellie MaeEW98.90993,52450.9x52.0 x6.8x6.4x53.6x43.7x*NuanceOW17.07205,02015.4xnm3.8xnm18.1xnm*PluralsightOW32.06364,255nmnm13.1xnmnmnm*Veeva SystemsEW135.4913321,26371.4x61.9x23.4x19.8x66.9x57.1xDesign tools*AdobeOW271.90304134,37034.0 x26.4x11.9x10.0 x29.1x24.2x*AnsysUW188.5917116,11932.7x29.2x10.7x9.8x33.9x28.1x*AutodeskOW171.8819938,03764.9x34.9x12.2x9.7x29.9x22.8x*PTCOW97.0710411,61349.0 x34.8x8.8x7.7x40.5x27.7xSecurity*Palo AltoOW245.9330324,00340.8x34.4x6.8x5.7x20.0 x16.0 x*CyberArkEW119.541224,49660.1x47.7x10.0 x8.4x33.4x27.1x*FireEyeEW15.93203,20889.8x67.6x3.4x3.1x54.6x33.6x*FortinetEW89.689215,76643.4x37.9x6.7x6.0 x21.6x16.7x*Check PointEW125.8113519,80120.8x19.3x7.9x7.5x14.1x13.3x*Rapid7OW52.36612,482nmnm7.6x6.1xnm51.7x*SecureWorksUW17.92151,444nmnm2.4xnm62.2xnm*SymantecEW23.902415,65513.7xnm3.7xnm12.9xnm*ZscalerEW67.75559,095nmnm27.4x20.5xnmnm*MimecastOW48.11533,020nm61.8x7.3x6.1x58.7x42.6x*VaronisEW61.26651,991nmnm6.6x6.6xnmnmP/EEV/SalesEV/FCFBarclays|U.S.Software 12 April 2019 7 FIGURE 3 YTD Price Performance Source:Refinitiv,Price as of Previous Days Market Close (10)%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%ZScalerMongoDBRapid7CyberArkEllie MaeLivePersonPaycomCoupaVeevaCeridianMimecastTalendVMwareServiceNowSolarWindsPluralsightAnaplanAutodeskAnsysIntuitPalo AltoSplunkNuanceAvayaFortinetSymantecCheck PointWorkdayAppianAdobeMobileIronOracleMicrosoftSalesforcePTCFive9ElasticVaronisS&P 500TeradataSAPCornerstoneSecureWorksTableauLogMeInCarboniteCitrixFireEyePivotalBarclays|U.S.Software 12 April 2019 8 ANSYS,INC.(UW/POS,PT$171)No More ASC 605 to Qualify Results;Margins are Beatable;Management was Prudent with Big Deal Assumptions We will no longer have ASC 605 results to qualify 606 volatility so it will come down to reported revenue and ACV as the main focus metrics we think ANSS made the prudent assumption of fewer big deals in guidance.Margins have a low bar at 38%for 1Q19,and we would not be surprised to see upside.The question bears are asking is whether the volatility that drove upside in prior quarters could be the driver of less upside in seasonally slow quarters we think that will be the case,but we also think guidance contemplates this.Big deals affecting both y/y and q/q compares;but worth noting comment on avoiding downside surprise.We model revenue/EPS of$300M/$1.04 to the midpoint of ASC 606 guidance representing 6%growth at the midpoint and is below the Streets$306M/$1.10.1Q will be the first quarter of only ASC 606 reporting which will be refreshing as the transition added complexity in our view.Recall 1Q faces a partially tough comp due to the$50M deal from 1Q18 and tough q/q comp from the$59M deal in 4Q18.However,we believe ANSS was prudent in forecasting big deals,and made the comment of using caution to avoid downside surprises,which is worth noting.Margin guide is lowest we have seen at 38%,partially from M&A but also because of assumption of fewer big deals.Ansys is guiding to 37.5%margin at the midpoint which is lower than what we saw through FY18(the only ASC 606 compare),but remember Ansys will be digesting the two acquisitions of Granta Design and Helic which are expected to be a 1 point headwind to margins for the year.But we think the bigger driver of lower margin is the assumption of fewer big deals,particularly after such a successful 4Q one can read that as perhaps the$59M deal was originally meant for 1Q19(i.e.pull forward),or that management is being prudent.Nonetheless,we have seen ANSS beat this metric in the past,and would view 37.5%as a low bar.Will more volatile quarterly results,and no more ASC 605 disclosure,make for a more volatile stock?This is a question we feel like some bears are asking going into the print.We had the benefit of qualifying ASC 606 results vs the ASC 605 result in FY18,which showed the accounting of lease transactions.Bears are also asking whether 4Qs upside could be this quarters inline result.We think ANSS considered this in the guide,but we also think it could mean smaller magnitude of upside.FIGURE 4 Barclays Research vs.Consensus estimates Ansys$,m Barclays Consensus Difference Barclays Consensus Difference 1Q19 1Q19 2Q19 2Q19 License 108.0 147.4 Maintenance&Services 192.1 194.7 Total Revenue 300.1 305.8 (2)%342.1 341.9 0%Gross profit,non-GAAP 262.7 269.2 (2)%302.6 305.9 (1)%margin 87.5%88.0%88.5%89.5%Operating Profit,adjusted 112.6 116.7 (3)%152.4 149.1 2%margin 37.5%38.2%44.6%43.6%Net income,adjusted 89.6 90.8 (1)%120.6 118.7 2%EPS,adjusted$1.04$1.10 (5)%$1.40$1.39 1%Source:Source:Barclays Research,Refinitiv Barclays|U.S.Software 12 April 2019 9 APPIAN(EW/POS,PT$34)Typical Setup for a Beat,Focus on FY19 Growth Guidance We would expect Appian to deliver a beat and raise in Q1 based on reasonable subscription comps and an achievable sequential setup.The recent investor discussions have been focused on the growth upside vs.managements initial FY19 guidance of 15%growth at the midpoint.We would expect the company to outperform vs.expectations for both subscription and services revenue through FY19.As such,we see potential for gradual positive estimate revisions this year as well(the company has raised FY guidance each quarter since going public).While we like the track record of healthy execution and the market opportunity,we believe the current valuation level remains fair considering the companys growth prospects and mix of professional services.We are adjusting our SOTP to reflect the potential for sustained 30%+subscription growth and decelerating professional services growth expectations,which leads to our new PT of$34.Reasonable Subscription Comps,Sequential Setup Shows Room for a Beat:Appian will see reasonable comps for subscription this quarter with subscription revenue growth of 36%last year(low end for FY18).However,comps for total revenue growth seem tougher(35%growth)due to the 46.5%growth in professional services last year.However,the sequential setup seems achievable across the board,with our q/q estimate of-1%for both subscription revenue and total revenue growth(vs.11%historical average for both).Even adjusted for the$1mn one-off benefit to subscription revenue in Q4,the setup provides enough room for a beat,with 2%and 1%adjusted sequential growth for subscription and total re