巴克莱-美股-零售业-美国软装零售业：品牌立足之地——2018年Q4日程预览-2019.1.25-27页.pdfVIP免费

EquityResearch25January2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE22.U.S.RetailSoftlinesBrandstoMakeaStand-Calendar4Q18PreviewRecentgroup-wideweaknessplacesapremiumonearningsvisibility.ValuationsacrossthegrouphavecontractedsignificantlyandSoftlinestradeatasimilardiscounttotheS&Pasduringthelastrecession(Figure1).CY19sell-sideEPSestimateshavemoderatedonlyslightly(Figure2),sothissuggestslikelyconcernsaboutearningsriskrelativetoConsensusmodels.Weseethisset-upasmostconstructiveformulti-nationalbrandsandoff-priceandaremorecautiousondomesticretailers.Despiteinvestorconcerns,therearesignsinternationallyexposednamescouldperformbetterthanfeared.FXpressuresaremoderating(Figure3),keyinternationalmarketscontinuetogrowretailsalesandGDP(Figure4,Figure5),andrecentearningsupdates(PVH,VFC)havedemonstratedresiliencetomacropressures.Giventheunderperformanceofmanymulti-nationalbrands(Figure6,Figure7),weviewthemasattractivevs.domesticretailers(01/11/19:AmidstVolatility:RotateintoQuality).Domestictrendsremainsolid,butweseemorerisktothesenames.ThestrongU.S.macrobackdropisalreadywell-understood,inflationarypressuresappearlikelypersistinCY19andimpactinitialcompanyguidance,andthelingeringgovernmentshutdownimpact(Figure8)couldaffectnear-termdomesticconsumption–particularlywithJanuaryrepresentingthelastmonthoftheretailcalendaryear.Asaresult,wearegenerallymorecautiousonquarterlyresultsandoutlooksfordomesticretailers.EarningsresultscouldhelprebuildsentimentforTPR,RL,andPVH.WeexpectTPR’scorefundamentalstoremainintactandbelievesolidinternationaltrendsinF2Q19coulddriveaclearingeventforshares.RLshouldbenefitfromitsongoingtop-lineturnaroundandconservativeF2H19margi...