EquityResearch11December2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE18.Restricted-InternalU.S.Aerospace&DefenseBusinessJetSurvey:HitsNewLow;ReduceGD/TXTForecastsSurveyindexdrops12%to39;nowforecastdeclinein2020deliveriesforGD/TXTReducingdeliveryforecasts:Onthebackofcontinuedweaknessinoursurvey,wehavereducedour2020-21bizjetdeliveryforecastforGDandTXTby~10%.Overall,weforecastGulfstreamlargecabindeliveries7%lowerin2020and8%lowerforCessnaextherampininitialLongitudedeliveries(ascomparedtopriorforecast).Indicatorat39:OurBarclaysBusinessJetIndicator(BBJI)continuestodecline,hittinganewlowat39,12%lowerthanourpriorsurvey(September).Bycabinclass,oursmallcabinindexcameinslightlybetterthanmidandlarge.Ourstraightupmeasureofoverallbusinessconditionsstillcamethroughaboveaverageat5.8(0-10scale),slightlybelowourpriorsurvey,butoffnearly20%fromitshighinlate2018.Electionyearoverhang:Respondentsappearcautiousontheoutlookinto2020with61%ofrespondentsexpectingtheupcomingU.S.presidentialelectioncycletoweighonthemarket.Seepages13-14foradditionalcommentaryfromindustryprofessionals,whogenerallyhighlightamarketcharacterizedbyslowingtransactionactivity,decliningpricesandtheoverhangofpoliticaluncertainty.Componentscores:Eachofourcomponentscores(pricing,12-monthoutlook,inventorylevel,willingnesstoincreaseinventory)otherthancustomerinterestdeclinedtonewlowsinNovemberwithpricingandinventorybothregistering>20%declines.Onabsolutebasis,ourcustomerinterestandinventoryscorescontinuetoholdinbest,near50,indicatingstablecustomerinterestandnearnormalusedinventorylevels.G700:Mostrespondents(68%)expectGulfstream’srecentlyannouncedultra-largecabinG700businessjetwillatleastmodest...
