巴克莱-美股-餐饮行业-2019年Q1美国餐馆业预览-2019.5.13-24页.pdf

Equity Research 13 May 2019 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 20.Restricted-Internal U.S.Restaurants 1Q19 Comp Beat But EPS Missed&April Comp Mixed;Sell in May?Dear Client:We appreciate your consideration in the Institutional Investor All-America&All-Canada Research Team 2019 Survey.To view our analysts,please click here.Heading into 1Q19 restaurant earnings,our preview was entitled“Surprisingly Resilient”(4/22/19).This message held true,with only one comp shortfall relative to consensus,demonstrating broad consumer strength.With that said,ex tax benefits,50%missed on EPS and the group is modestly underperforming the S&P 500 YTD.We continue to have LT category comp concerns,with supply(i.e.units)exceeding demand(i.e.sales),led by casual diners.With that said,18 comp momentum sustained through 1Q19(ex weather).And while April eased relative to March,it was still better than February.But EPS upside has been hard to come by,pressured by ongoing outsized labor and a recent return to commodity cost inflation.And with multiples above historic averages,difficult to justify sector outperformance.The Sell in May adage is well known,and our analysis of 30 years of share price seasonality suggests sector stocks do tend to underperform in June and July.In this note,we analyze restaurant comp&EPS growth trends in calendar 1Q19,as well as color on 2Q19 QTD comp trends(i.e.,April).We also include an in-depth analysis on restaurant stock price seasonality.1Q19 Restaurant Takeaways 95%met,or more often beat,comp consensus.With that said,50%missed EPS consensus(ex tax favorability).Importantly,while sector stock performance has been strong on an absolute basis,it has modestly lagged the broader S&P(Figure 1).In looking at EPS,our typically more defensive,franchised QSRs have had a tougher time(67%EPS miss rate)relative to our more discretionary,co-op casual diners(33%EPS miss rate).We believe such can be attributed to the benefit of the outsized comp flow-through,enough to offset labor inflation in 1Q19.Comp Color for 1Q19&2Q19 QTD Most offered bullish commentary in describing 1Q19,with relative strength through the quarter(ex inclement February weather).April eased relative to March,though still better than February.Confidence&employment continue to provide a favorable backdrop,and such coupled with 18 consumer tax reform and incremental to-go&tech led sales helped the category over the hump.With that said,LT concerns remain,led by the persistent overhang from the industry supply/demand imbalance,and the shift from brick&mortar to on-line shopping.Seasonality Pronounced for Restaurants We analyzed the underlying trend in seasonal performance since 90.On a monthly basis,the industry outperforms the S&P 500 on average in 9 of 12 months.Interestingly,given the Sell in May proverb,June&July are underperformers.On a quarterly basis,the industry outperforms the S&P on average in 3 of 4 quarters,with 3Q the outlier.INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S.Restaurants NEUTRAL Unchanged U.S.Restaurants Jeffrey A.Bernstein+1 212 526 3855 BCI,US Pratik Patel+1 212 526 4438 BCI,US Jeff Priester+1 212 526 1880 BCI,US Barclays|U.S.Restaurants 13 May 2019 2 1Q19 Restaurant Takeaways FIGURE 1 Fundamental and Stock Price Performance in 1Q19 Barclays Coverage Universe Source:Refinitiv,Company Reports,and Barclays Estimates.Note:DNKN comp represents Dunkin Donuts US,MCD the US Segment,YUM the Global comp,BLMN the Outback US comp,DRI the Olive Garden comp,EAT the Chilis US comp,SBUX the Americas Comp.Prices as of 5/10/19 post-close.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.For full disclosures on each covered company,including details of our company-specific valuation methodology and risks,please refer to http:/ RESTAURANTSQuickserviceCasual DiningSpecialty/Fast CasualCALENDAR 1Q19DNKNDPZJACKMCDQSRWENYUMBJRIBLMNCAKEDRIEATTXRHCMGSBUXSHAKWINGComp:Reported2.4%3.9%4.5%2.2%1.3%4.0%2.0%3.5%1.3%4.3%2.9%5.2%9.9%4.0%3.6%7.1%Consensus1.4%4.2%3.0%1.8%1.2%2.7%1.8%2.6%1.0%3.4%2.1%5.3%7.0%4.0%0.8%3.6%ResultBeatMissBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatIn-lineBeatIn-lineBeatBeatEPS:Reported(adjusted)$0.67$2.20$1.78$0.55$0.14$0.87$0.60$0.75$0.62$1.80$1.26$0.70$3.40$0.60$0.13$0.22Consensus$0.62$2.09$1.76$0.58$0.11$0.81$0.51$0.73$0.60$1.75$1.20$0.81$3.00$0.56$0.13$0.19Reported(adjusted,ex tax benefit)$0.66$2.06$1.73$0.54$0.13$0.80$0.57$0.76$0.59$1.78$1.24$0.70$3.10$0.57$0.12$0.18ResultBeatMissMissMissBeatMissBeatBeatMissBeatBeatMissBeatBeatMissMissStock Performance:1st Day of Trading0.1%4.9%0.2%(1.4%)4.0%(2.3%)5.9%7.0%2.1%6.9%(2.4%)(11.6%)1.0%0.4%(4.3%)4.0%1st Day of Trading Relative to S&P0.3%5.1%0.1%(1.6%)4.1%(1.6%)5.4%6.5%2.4%5.8%(2.5%)(11.7%)1.3%(0.0%)(5.3%)4.1%Post Reporting Relative to S&P2.4%4.8%3.6%3.2%2.1%(0.6%)4.3%4.1%(1.1%)10.0%(0.6%)(8.0%)2.2%3.2%(2.8%)3.9%YTD16%12%13%29%21%10%(2%)13%10%22%(3%)(8%)63%22%33%23%Quickservice(ex tax benefit)All RestaurantsComp%AvgEPS%AvgEPS%Avg+/-vs S&PYTDComp%AvgBeat83%86bpsBeat83%10%Beat33%12%Up83%Up100%Beat81%128bpsMiss17%-30bpsMiss17%-5%Miss67%-3%Down17%Down0%Miss6%-30bpsIn-Line0%n/aIn-Line0%n/aIn-Line0%n/aFlat0%Flat0%In-Line13%-5bpsCasual Dining(ex tax benefit)Including Tax BenefitExcluding Tax BenefitComp%AvgEPS%AvgEPS%Avg+/-vs S&PYTDEPS%AvgEPS%AvgBeat83%62bpsBeat83%6%Beat67%5%Up50%Up50%Beat81%9%Beat50%6%Miss0%n/aMiss17%-14%Miss33%-8%Down50%Down50%Miss13%-9%Miss50%-5%In-Line17%-10bpsIn-Line0%n/aIn-Line0%n/aFlat0%Flat0%In-Line6%0%In-Line0%n/aSpecialty/Fast Casual(ex tax benefit)Comp%AvgEPS%AvgEPS%Avg+/-vs S&PYTD+/-vs S&PYTDBeat75%307bpsBeat75%12%Beat50%3%Up75%Up100%Up69%Up81%Miss0%n/aMiss0%n/aMiss50%-6%Down25%Down0%Down31%Down19%In-Line25%0bpsIn-Line25%0bpsIn-Line0%n/aFlat0%Flat0%Flat0%Flat0%Barclays|U.S.Restaurants 13 May 2019 3 Comp Color for 1Q19&2Q19 QTD(Full Detail Follows)FIGURE 2 Casual Dining US Comp Trends and April/2Q19 Comp Color Timeframe BJRI BLMN:Outback BLMN:Carrabbas BLMN:Bonefish CAKE DRI:OG DRI:LH EAT:Chilis (co-op)TXRH(co-op)Knapp Track 2Q19 Color mid-1%in April(&2.5-3%last 2 weeks)2Q19 guide 1.5-2.5%2Q19(implied)guide-0.8%to+2.2%2.9%QTD(1st 4 weeks)April -1.1%1Q19 2.0%3.5%0.3%1.9%1.3%4.3%3.8%2.9%5.2%1.0%1Q18 4.2%4.3%0.9%-0.1%2.1%2.2%2.0%-0.4%4.9%0.1%2-Year Average 3.1%3.9%0.6%0.9%1.7%3.3%2.9%1.3%5.1%0.6%Source:Company Reports,Barclays Research FIGURE 3 Quickservice US Comp Trends and April/2Q19 Comp Color Timeframe DNKN:DD US DNKN:BR US DPZ US JACK MCD US QSR:BK QSR:TH QSR:PLKI WEN YUM:TB US YUM:PH US YUM:KFC US 2Q19 Color 1.5%QTD(1st 4 weeks)1Q19 2.4%-2.8%4.0%n/a 4.5%2.2%-0.6%0.6%1.3%4.0%Flat 2.0%1Q18-0.5%-1.0%8.3%-0.8%2.9%3.8%-0.3%3.2%1.6%1.0%4.0%Flat 2-Year Average 1.0%-1.9%6.1%n/a 3.7%3.0%-0.5%1.9%1.5%2.5%2.0%1.0%Source:Company Reports,Barclays Research FIGURE 4 Specialty/Fast Casual US Comp Trends and April/2Q19 Comp Color Timeframe CMG SBUX:Americas SHAK WING 2Q19 Color Would not expect same comp strength as 1Q19 1Q19 9.9%4.0%3.6%7.1%1Q18 2.2%2.0%1.7%9.5%2-Year Average 6.1%3.0%2.7%8.3%Source:Company Reports,Barclays Research Barclays|U.S.Restaurants 13 May 2019 4 Sell in May and Go Away?.Stock Price Seasonality Seasonality Pronounced for Restaurants We analyzed the underlying trend in seasonal performance since 90.On a monthly basis,the industry outperforms the S&P 500 on average in 9 of 12 months.Interestingly,given the Sell in May proverb,June&July are underperformers.On a quarterly basis,the industry outperforms the S&P on average in 3 of 4 quarters,with 3Q the outlier.MONTHLY On a RELATIVE basis:The industry on average outperforms the S&P in nine of 12 months,with June,July&October the underperformers,ranging from 30-130bps.The strongest months are February&March,with outperformance of 250-350bps.MONTHLY On an ABSOLUTE basis:February&March have seen the strongest average restaurant stock price performance,up 3%&5%,respectively.This compares to June,July&August seeing the weakest performance,averaging down 30-80bps.FIGURE 5 Average Monthly Returns(1990 to Present)for Restaurants vs.S&P 500 Source:Refinitiv and Barclays Research FIGURE 6 Average Monthly Returns(1990 to Present)for Restaurants,the S&P 500,and Consumer Indices Source:Refinitiv and Barclays Research (200)bps(100)bps0bps100bps200bps300bps400bps500bps-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRestaurant AverageS&P 500 AverageRestaurant Relative Performance(right axis)-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRestaurants AverageS&P 500S&P Consumer DiscretionaryS&P Consumer StaplesBarclays|U.S.Restaurants 13 May 2019 5 QUARTERLY.On a RELATIVE basis:The industry outperforms the broader S&P in three of four quarters,with 2Q&4Q outperforming by 165bps&160bps,respectively.This pales in comparison to 1Q with outperformance of 725bps+.3Q has been the historical outlier,though underperformance has been modest(35bps).QUARTERLY On an ABSOLUTE basis:1Q has seen outsized average restaurant stock performance,up 9.5%,followed by 4Q up 6.0%.Historically,three out of four quarters have seen restaurant stock appreciation on average,with only 3Q a modest negative.FIGURE 7 Average Quarterly Returns(1990 to Present)for Restaurants vs.S&P 500 Source:Refinitiv and Barclays Research FIGURE 8 Average Monthly Returns(1990 to Present)for Restaurants,the S&P 500,and Consumer Indices Source:Refinitiv and Barclays Research (200)bps0bps200bps400bps600bps800bps1000bps-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%1Q2Q3Q4QRestaurant AverageS&P 500 Average(Op.Basis)Restaurant Relative Performance(right axis)-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%1Q2Q3Q4QRestaurants AverageS&P 500S&P Consumer DiscretionaryS&P Consumer StaplesBarclays|U.S.Restaurants 13 May 2019 6 Restaurant Comp Trends Comps drive earnings,earnings drive multiples,and multiples drive stock price performance(in theory).Below we highlight restaurant sector stock performance relative to the S&P 500 for two distinct periods related to 1Q19.The left chart captures performance from the start of 1Q19(1/1)through the last day prior to the beginning of 1Q19 earnings(4/23),while the right chart captures post-earnings performance through Fridays close(5/10/19).Following in-line sector stock price performance relative to the S&P through early March,the sector then experienced underperformance for most of March&April,with cost pressures overshadowing comp momentum.Ultimately,the sector was a modest underperformer for the full 1Q19.And since the start of reporting 1Q19 earnings(4/24),our coverage has reverted back to outperformance through mid-May(5/10),supported by bullish commentary by many restaurants related to sustained comp momentum,coupled with the most recent market volatility related to tariffs,which has little impact on our restaurants.FIGURE 9 Barclays Restaurant Stock Performance,12/31/18-4/23/19 FIGURE 10 Barclays Restaurant Stock Performance,4/24-5/10/19 Source:Refinitiv and Barclays Research.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results Source:Refinitiv and Barclays Research.Specific to restaurant management color.Most offered bullish commentary when describing 1Q19 results and their outlook for 2Q19.Importantly,most alluded to a strong exit rate to close 1Q19(i.e.March),a re-acceleration post-inclement February weather,which has sustained in 2Q19 QTD.Looking back,the top three factors explaining the better than expected 1Q19:1)ongoing benefits from 2018 consumer tax reform,supporting a rise in disposable income,2)continued favorability on macro factors such as consumer confidence and employment,&3)incremental to-go sales with most noting outsized growth on both pick-up and delivery.95100105110115120SPXBarclays Restaurants Index9899100101102103SPXBarclays Restaurants IndexSince the start of reporting 1Q19 earnings(4/24),our coverage has reverted back to outperformance through mid-May(5/10),supported by bullish commentary by many restaurants related to sustained comp momentum,coupled with the most recent market volatility related to tariffs,which has little impact on our restaurants.Most offered bullish commentary when describing 1Q19 results and their outlook for 2Q19.Importantly,most alluded to a strong exit rate to close 1Q19(i.e.March),a re-acceleration post-inclement February weather,which has sustained in 2Q19 QTD.Barclays|U.S.Restaurants 13 May 2019 7 April 2019 Knapp Track Casual Dining Index.“The estimated comparable Casual Dining restaurant sales change in April 2019 for 4 weeks is-1.1%and-3.3%for guest counts.These estimates are-2.8pp worse than the above average April 2018 accounting result of 1.7%for comparable restaurant sales tied with October for the 4th best month of 2018 and-0.9%for comparable guest counts.FIGURE 11 Knapp-Track Monthly Casual Dining“Comps”Source:Knapp-Track and Barclays Research In April 2019,1 of 4 weeks had positive comparable sales results.3 of 4 weeks had negative comparable sales results.0 of 4 weeks had positive comparable restaurant guest count results.4 of 4 weeks had negative comparable restaurant guest count results.The spread for comparable sales between the best week of the four weeks in April 2019 vs.the worst week is 2.4pp,with the best week the 2nd week(only positive week in April 2019)and the worst week the 1st week.The first 2 weeks of April 2019 had a comparable restaurant sales run rate of-0.8%.The last 2 weeks of April 2019 had a comparable sales result of-1.4%.The first 2 weeks of April 2019 had a comparable restaurant guest count run rate of-3.3%.The last 2 weeks of April 2019 had a comparable restaurant guest count result of-3.2%.Texas comparable restaurant sales in April 2019 are estimated at-1.0%,better by 0.1pp than the US level of-1.1%.California in April 2019 is estimated to have comparable restaurant sales of-1.1%,the same as the US level of-1.1%.Florida in April 2019 is estimated to have comparable restaurant sales of-0.4%,0.7pp above the US level of-1.1%.145 of the last 248 weeks(starting July 19&20,2014)had positive comparable sales and 40 of 248 weeks had positive comparable guest counts”April 19,Knapp-Track(5/10/19)-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019KNAPP-TRACK2-Year AvgBarclays|U.S.Restaurants 13 May 2019 8 April 2019 Black Box Intelligence Restaurant Industry Snapshot“The fluctuations in restaurant sales growth performance returned during April.Same-store sales growth was-0.4%during the month.The industry has experienced two months of negative sales growth since the beginning of the year,potentially a troubling reversal of the persistent positive growth experienced during 2018.However,the shift of the Easter holiday from March to April this year meant a negative hit on sales for many restaurant brands.Additionally,l