德银-全球货币宽松的药丸不能停！（宏观）-2019.7.23-29页.pdf

ResearchDeutsche BankThe House View23 July DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MCI(P)066/04/2019Global monetary medicine on the way#PositiveImpactDistributed on:23/07/2019 17:32:34 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。ResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/2Month ReviewThe Guardian,16 July,2019WSJ,16 July,2019NYTimes,10 July,2019Reuters,15 July,2019The Guardian,5 July,2019WSJ,21 July,2019FT,11 July,2019Bloomberg,17 July,2019The Guardian,19 July,2019FT,16 July,2019WSJ,6 July,2019Bloomberg,16 July,2019Reuters,11 July,2019Reuters,19 July,2019Bloomberg,23 July,2019ResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/This summer,attention has shifted away from trade wars and politics,back to monetary policy.After a decade of unprecedented policy actions,the world economy still struggles to break free and return to normalcy.In the absence of a plan B,the worlds major central banks are set to engage in simultaneous policy easing yet again,with rate cuts likely in the US,China,and Europe.Asset purchases could be restarted in the euro area before YE as well.In the UK,Brexit is still the driving force,but rate cuts are highly likely,with a return to QE on a hard Brexit(45%probability).The incoming leadership team in Europe complicates matters,but we believe the transition will ultimately prove to be a turning point for Europe.We are highly confident that Christine Lagarde will be a historically successful ECB president at a key juncture.She has a strong track record of consensus-building and pragmatic leadership,surrounding herself with experts and proving to be unafraid of self-criticism and course correction.At the European Commission,Ursula von der Leyen will need to execute on the ambitious suite of reforms that national governments have already endorsed.Both women will face challenges,but the opportunity for an epochal change in European economic policymaking is within reach.In terms of macro fundamentals,the global economy is maintaining momentum in spite of the crosswinds.While trade and manufacturing are under pressure,labour markets in the US and Europe look strong.Ultimately,we expect monetary easing to prolong the current expansion and position for higher equities and steeper yield curves.A major setback in US/China trade talks remains the biggest short-term risk.David Folkerts-Landau,Group Chief Economist3The House View,23 July 2019Global monetary medicine on the wayThe views in this publication are informed by Deutsche Banks Global Strategy Group,which advises management and clients on broad market risks and global economic and financial developments.The views and forecasts of the group,which consists of senior research staff,may occasionally differ from those disseminated by their research colleaguesTable of contentsIntroduction 4-boxes Total returns Macro events calendarMacro update Monetary policy outlook Global outlook Macro update New EU leadership Brexit update Trade war updateMarkets Summary asset views Equities update Rates update FX update Credit update Oil updateForecasts DB ForecastsResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/ Fed:Three cuts in 2019(Jul,Sep,and Dec)ECB:10bps deposit rate cut in September and December,tiering in September,QE a close call BoJ:On hold,no changes in target yields on YCC,possibly well into 2020 BoE:No hike this year,one hike in Aug 2020 PBoC:To cut OMO rates by 10-50bps;Cut RRR once EM:Expect cuts in Russia,South Africa,Turkey,India,Indonesia,Philippines,Vietnam,Brazil,and Chile Global growth is slowing,but still positive expect 2019 world GDP to grow at 3.2%;central bank policy easing to sustain expansion and limit downside risks US:economic growth slower but above potential raise full-year 2019 GDP growth forecast by 0.1pp to 2.5%,driven by strong consumption growth Eurozone:Downside risks to already slow growth some upside risks to Q2 GDP,but caution remains.Expect 2019 GDP growth of 1.1%EM economies are bottoming,but no acceleration in sight expect 2019 growth at 4.2%Monetary easing:Major central banks are set to engage in simultaneous policy easing this fall to limit slowing growth momentum.Rate cuts likely in the US,Europe and several EM economies Trade war:Some de-escalation recently on US-China trade front,but no signs of a deal as yet.EU auto tariff risk also remains on the table.Truce may be temporary Brexit:Our base case remains a general election this year,but there is increasing uncertainty as to whether this will occur before a no-deal Brexit or afterwards.We raise our no-deal Brexit indicative probability to 45%(single most individual outcome)Views on key themesEconomic outlookCentral bank watchKey downside risks to our viewNotes:H/M/L indicates estimated probability of risk(High,Medium,Low).4 Crash Brexit No-deal Brexit risks are rising.With under 100 days to Brexit deadline,new UK PM will be running out of time to garner support for a Brexit deal.Early UK election could also weigh on Brexit outcome Trade war Escalation in US-China trade war,and an extension of tariffs to Europe(auto tariff)would disrupt global trade activity and hit global growth hard Recession Prolonged and accelerated weakness in Chinese&European growth&associated global recession/sharp correction in financial markets Geopolitical risks Rising tensions between US-Iran,UK-Iran can spark volatility and dent market sentimentSimultaneous policy easing to limit growth slowdownLMMLResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/30.423.121.120.418.218.116.414.511.410.47.09.89.37.76.37.97.05.14.510.54.11.71.51.20.0-2.1-2.2-6.5-11.917.811.6-20-15-10-505101520253035MSCI RussiaItaly MilanFrench CAC 40US S&P 500Shanghai CompositeEurope Stoxx 600German DAX 30UK FTSE 100MSCI EMSpain IBEX 35Japan NikkeiUS IGUS HYEUR HYEUR IGItalyUKUSGermanyRUBCADJPYEM FXDollar IndexCNYGBPEURTRYARSIron OreBrent OilGoldQTD 2019(in local currency)Returns*per asset class in YTD 2019EquitiesCommodities*FX*Sovereign debtCorporate CreditYTD 2019(in local currency)5Note:(*)Total return accounts for both income(interest or dividends)and capital appreciation.(*)FX,Commodities are spot returns.Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Deutsche Bank Research.As of COB,22-July-19Market action has been muted over the last few months,with no major moves and steady rallies in fixed incomeSovereign bonds rallied over recent months,with peripheral Europe outperformingCommodities have held on to their YTD gainsThe Shanghai Composite is a notable laggard over the last few monthsAction in currency markets has recently been mutedMost equity indexes have traded close to flat this quarterCredit has held gains this quarter and,on some metrics,is having the best year since 200959.6The dollar is near flat this year,with EM and euro weakness offset by strength in Canada and JapanResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/62019 Macro Events CalendarResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/7Easing bias of major central banksFederal ReserveEuropean Central BankBank of EnglandBank of JapanMacrobackdrop Slowing growth with downsiderisks Unemployment low butinflation persistently belowtarget Crosscurrents:Trade tensions,slowing global growth Renewed external risks add toan already mediocre growthoutlook Domestic resilience holding fornow but persistent uncertaintyis an increasing risk Confidence in inflationnormalization is under scrutiny Elevated uncertainty resultingin weak activity projections for2019(1.2%)Inflation to remain subdued in2019(1.8%)and 2020(1.9%)Close to full employment Growth to remain below itspotential in 2019 and 2020 Expect inflation(ex.freshfood)to have peaked around1%Key challenge Sustaining the expansion Lifting inflation and inflationexpectations Persistent below-trend growthcould undermine inflationnarrative ECB needs to convincemarket of tools to avoidJapanification Conflicting goals:demand/supply dynamicsremain inflationary but Brexituncertainty still elevated Global risks also on the rise Near full-employment,BoJstimulus not boosting prices Sustainability&limitedadditional policy optionsPolicy stance Easing bias given low inflationand downside risks Catalysts for ECB easing arebeing triggered Fed easing risks puttingupward pressure on EUR Commentary since 6 Juneemphasizing easing options Ongoing tightening of policy but very gradual and limited Keep accommodative policystance while paying attentionto policy side effectsWhat we expect Three cuts in 2019(July,September and December)Balance sheet unwind to endwhen they cut 10bps depo cuts in Septemberand December Tiering in September Stronger forward guidance tokeep yields lower for longer QE is a close call,mightrestart later if needed No hikes expected this year One hike penciled in forAugust 2020 but rising riskthat tightening cycle haspeaked On hold,no changes in targetyield on YCC,possibly wellinto 2020 Continued reduction in pace ofJGB purchases Discussion in next 2-3 yearsabout changing policy goalNote:(*)BoJ introduced Yield Curve Control in Sep-2016.Rather than maintaining a commitment to a JPY amount of QE purchases,the BoJ started targeting a 10-year yield around zero.The policy has a countercyclical nature:the more inflation normalises and yields rise,the more bonds the BoJ will purchase,thus easing when not needed;the opposite also holds true.ResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/8We expect the Fed to cut interest rates this month,followed by two more cuts later this yearThe outlook for global growth has slowedThere is evidence of spillover into the USGlobal growthTrade policy uncertainty is elevatedBusinesses cite trade policy as anobstacle weighing on capexTrade uncertaintyCore PCE inflation is below-target and atrisk of remaining thereInflation expectations are off-targetInflationLabour market now viewed as less tightEstimates of full employment have fallenWage growth has softenedLabourmarketEstimates of r-star,aka the neutralinterest rate,have fallenPolicy may be tighter than thoughtR-starviewsThe Fed shows signs of re-evaluating thecosts and benefits of running theeconomy hotterPolicy review We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points atits July 31 meeting We then forecast two additional 25 basis pointcuts,in September and December this year There is some debate on whether the Fed will cutby 25 or 50 bps this month We believe 25 bps is much more likely,especially given recent Fed communications The lagged effect of policy easing is factored intoour rosy medium-term economic forecastsFed Watcher:July cut coming,but Fedspeak reveals some fissures 15 July 20191.52.02.53.03.520062008201020122014201620185y5y inflation swap5y5y breakevenMichigan 5-10ySource:BEA,Bloomberg Finance LP,Deutsche Bank Research Various metrics of inflation expectations have fallen%yoyResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/9Expect ECBs rates easing bias to be announced in July,delivered in September Expect the easing bias to be maintained&the ECB to cut the deposit rate a further 10bp in December Recent commentary is consistent with the ECB thinking about a package of policy measures Draghi might like one final legacy policy before leaving,but not clear if Governing Council would support a dramatic overhaul of guidance Draghis Sintra speech in June set the tone for further policy easing Expect preparatory announcements at the next ECB meeting on 25 July reintroducing or lower within the forward guidance Big decisions to follow in September Baseline is a 10bp deposit rate cut and announcement of tiering New asset purchases possible,but not our baselineFocus Europe:ECB Preview:Guidance,symmetry and absolute commitment 18 July 2019Global Fixed Income Weekly:Striving to meet market expectations-19 July 201925 July meetingForward guidance:Or lower easing bias with conditions attached12 Sep meetingRates policy:10bp deposit rate cut and tieringAsset Purchase Programme:A close call,but not baseline;Possible that ECB announces 30bn per month for minimum 9-12 monthsForward guidance:Trade off strong guidance against an immediate re-start of net asset purchases;Commitment to price stability,allowance for the symmetric inflation target within forward guidance12 Dec meetingRates policy:A further 10bp deposit rate cut,or lower easing bias maintainedMarket is pricing more than 10bp of cuts in September-5-13-13-26-30-25-20-15-10-50Jul 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Dec 19 Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20Forward EONIA swaps vs.current(bp)pre-SintraCurrentSource:Deutsche Bank,Bloomberg Finance LP,ICAPDB expectations for ECB policy meeting until the year endResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/10Simultaneous central bank policy easing to limit growth slowdownViewRationaleRisksxxSlower but still positiveGlobal activity is slowing but stillpositiveCoordinated central bank policyeasing to limit slowdown Trade war escalation,no-deal Brexit Deeper slowdown inChina and EuropeUSSlower growth and low inflationSolid consumer fundamentalsSentiment softer,capex weakerJobs gains sturdy but slower,unemployment low,but wageshave rolled overInfl.sticky below the Feds target Trade war escalates,slowing global growthspillovers Trade war resolutionremoves uncertainty;stronger productivityEuro-zoneTrade war and Brexit add risks to already slow growthData momentum continues to beflattered by one-off itemRecession risk masked by labourmarket resilience and easyfinancial conditions Trade war escalation orno deal Brexit could tipeconomy into recession Prolonged manufacturingdownturn risks contagionto solid labour marketChinaWaiting for policy easingExports&household consumptionto drive growth lowerMore public investment,lowerlending rates to support growth Trade talks break down,escalate beyond trade Private sector sentimentweaken more than exp.EMGrowth is bottoming,but no acceleration in sightLatAm-Larger economies hingeon idiosyncratic driversAsia Most impacted by tradeshocks,but with policyammunitionCEEMEA Growth provesresilient,but also quiteidiosyncratic Extra stimulus fails tocontain trade shocks Idiosyncratic andgeopolitical uncertaintiesmay escalate1.43.06.17.00.71.60.31.41.00.92.51.74.63.5012345678RussiaBrazilChinaIndiaJapanUKItalyFranceGermanyEurozoneUSDMEMWorld20182019Real GDP growth(%yoy)0.90.76.26.50.51.20.31.30.71.12.51.74.23.2012345678RussiaBrazilChinaIndiaJapanUKItalyFranceGermanyEurozoneUSDMEMWorld20182019Real GDP growth(%yoy)Source:Deutsche Bank Research ResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 23rdJuly http:/ Consumption growth has rebounded strongly this year Retail sales growth is very high,completely offsetting weakness in Q4 2018 On the other hand,manufacturing remains weak Industrial production is in contraction Soft data points to further slow investment The positives outweigh the negatives,and we raise our 2019 GDP forecast 0.1pp to 2.0%Q4/Q4 On the inflation front,we still forecast core PCE inflation at 1.8%by year-end Th