ResearchDeutscheBankTheHouseView23July2019quinn.brody@db.comhimanshu.porwal@db.comjim.reid@db.comDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)066/04/2019Globalmonetarymedicineontheway#PositiveImpactDistributedon:23/07/201917:32:34GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。。ResearchDeutscheBankTheHouseView–23rdJuly2019thehouseview@list.db.comhttp://houseview.research.db.com2MonthReviewTheGuardian,16July,2019WSJ,16July,2019NYTimes,10July,2019Reuters,15July,2019TheGuardian,5July,2019WSJ,21July,2019FT,11July,2019Bloomberg,17July,2019TheGuardian,19July,2019FT,16July,2019WSJ,6July,2019Bloomberg,16July,2019Reuters,11July,2019Reuters,19July,2019Bloomberg,23July,2019ResearchDeutscheBankTheHouseView–23rdJuly2019thehouseview@list.db.comhttp://houseview.research.db.comThissummer,attentionhasshiftedawayfromtradewarsandpolitics,backtomonetarypolicy.Afteradecadeofunprecedentedpolicyactions,theworldeconomystillstrugglestobreakfreeandreturntonormalcy.IntheabsenceofaplanB,theworld’smajorcentralbanksaresettoengageinsimultaneouspolicyeasingyetagain,withratecutslikelyintheUS,China,andEurope.AssetpurchasescouldberestartedintheeuroareabeforeYEaswell.IntheUK,Brexitisstillthedrivingforce,butratecutsarehighlylikely,withareturntoQEonahardBrexit(45%probability).TheincomingleadershipteaminEuropecomplicatesmatters,butwebelievethetransitionwillultimatelyprovetobeaturningpointforEurope.WearehighlyconfidentthatChristineLagardewillbeahistoricallysuccessfulECBpresidentatakeyjuncture.Shehasastrongtrackrecordofconsensus-buildingandpragmaticleadership,surroundingherselfwithexpertsandprovingtobeunafraidofself-criticismandcoursecorrection.AttheEuropeanCommission,UrsulavonderLeyenwillneedtoexecuteontheambitioussuiteofreformsthatnationalgovernmentshavealreadyendorsed.Bothwomenwi...
