第一太平戴维斯-亚太房地市场投资季度报告（2018Q4）（英文）-2019.2-28页.pdf

REPORTSavills ResearchAsia Pacifi c Q4 2018Investment Q Pacifi c Investment Quarterly3562*Associate Office218Offices Australia&New Zealand47OfficesAsia PacificAustraliaAdelaideBrisbaneCanberraGold CoastGordonLindfieldMelbourneNotting HillParramattaPerthRosevilleSt IvesSunshine CoastSydneyTurramurraChinaBeijingChengduChongqingDalianGuangzhouHangzhouNanjingShanghaiShenyangShenzhen TianjinWuhanXiamenXianZhuhaiTaiwanTaichungTaipei(2)ThailandBangkokVietnamDa nangHanoiHo Chi Minh CityHong KongCentral(2)Taikoo Shing(2)Tsim Sha TsuiIndiaBangaloreMumbaiGurgaonIndonesiaJakartaNew ZealandAucklandChristchurchJapanTokyoMacauMacauSingaporeSingapore(3)South KoreaSeoulMalaysiaJohor BahruKuala LumpurPenangCambodiaPhnom Penh*PhilippinesMakati City*Bonifacio Global City*Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange.The company,established in 1855,has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth.The company now has over 600 offi ces and associates throughout the Americas,Europe,Asia Pacifi c,Africa and the Middle East.In Asia Pacifi c,Savills has 65 regional offi ces comprising over 25,000 staff.Asia Pacifi c markets include Australia,China,Hong Kong,India,Indonesia,Japan,Macau,Malaysia,New Zealand,Singapore,South Korea,Taiwan,Thailand and Viet Nam.Savills provides a comprehensive range of advisory and professional property services to developers,owners,tenants and investors.These include consultancy services,facilities management,space planning,corporate real estate services,property management,leasing,valuation and sales in all key segments of commercial,residential,industrial,retail,investment and hotel property.A unique combination of sector knowledge and entrepreneurial fl air gives clients access to real estate expertise of the highest calibre.We are regarded as an innovative-thinking organisation supported by excellent negotiating skills.Savills chooses to focus on a defi ned set of clients,off ering a premium service to organisations and individuals with whom we share a common goal.Savills is synonymous with a high-quality service off ering and a premium brand,taking a long-term view of real estate and investing in strategic relationships.Asia Pacifi c Network3Asia Pacifi c Investment QuarterlyContent04050607080910111213141516171819202122AustraliaChina(Northern)-BeijingChina(Northern)-TianjinChina(Western)-ChengduChina(Southern)-GuangzhouChina(Southern)-ShenzhenChina(Eastern)-ShanghaiHong KongIndonesiaJapanMacauMalaysiaNew ZealandSingaporeSouth KoreaTaiwanThailandViet NamMajor transactions Q4 Pacifi c Investment QuarterlyAustraliaShrabastee MallikDirectorResearch&Consultancy+61 2 8215 .auPaul CraigCEO+61 2 8215 .auAustralians commercial property sector continued to record notable capital value growth with ongoing yield compression recorded across all non-residential property classes,over the last quarter of 2018,as investor appetite remained as strong as ever.Much of the conversation over 2018 revolved around how much longer the yield compression cycle across Australian non-residential property would last,particularly for the offi ce markets of Sydney CBD and Melbourne CBD.However,total sales volumes remained strong,with AUD$29.75 billion of offi ce,industrial and retail assets transacting in 2018.Transaction volumes in the offi ce sector continued to dominate,with total volumes in Q4/2018 being boosted by commercial property fund manager Charter Halls purchase of two offi ce buildings in Sydney for AUD$804 million,just before the end of the year.Total returns in the offi ce sector continued to be boosted by capital value growth,with total returns recorded at 14.4%in the 12 months to September 2018(latest available from MSCI/IPD).The Sydney CBD and fringe markets drove this performance with returns recorded at 18.0%in Parramatta and 17.1%in Sydney CBD.Positively,total returns in Brisbane CBD and Perth CBD continued their upward trend,returning 9.8%and 8.7%.In the industrial sector,total returns moderated somewhat in the September quarter,returning 11.6%in the 12 months to September 2018,though all markets nationally performed well above their long term CAGRs.The proliferation of ecommerce in Australia is driving the industrial sectors outperformance in the capital cities,with growth in the ecommerce industry(which is still in its infancy,and will likely see aggressive growth over the short to medium term)having a positive fl ow on eff ect to industrial demand.Rising global bond yields over 2018 saw the conversation turning to what this will mean for real estate yields,particularly in Australia,where domestic monetary policy remains at odds with our developed peers.Rising global yields coupled with strong economic fundamentals in Australia has seen recent swap market forecasts pointing to interest rates rising sooner than expected.Looking at the eff ect on commercial property markets,sharp upward revisions of the cash rate(and thus increasing wholesale funding costs)may limit valuation uplift,as the premium to book values potentially being eroded(particularly as recent sales evidence have driven up book values).Whilst Australias appeal as a prime investment destination,particularly for direct property,remains strong,a less accommodative monetary policy may mean a tempering of demand for Australian commercial property assets.Whilst these concerns are valid,yields on commercial properties are still enjoying a healthy spread to funding costs.We believe that interest rates will have to rise more than the 25 basis points over the next 12 months for there to be a signifi cantly detrimental impact on demand for Australian commercial property,particularly with economic fundamentals the strongest they have been since the Global Financial Crisis.0510152025303520032003200420042005200520062006200720072008200820092009201020102011201120122012201320132014201420152015201620162017201720182018DecemberDecemberOffice SalesOffice SalesIndustrial SalesIndustrial SalesRetail SalesRetail SalesAUD BILLIONAUD BILLIONAustralia Property Sales,December 2003 to December 2018Major Investment Transactions,Q4/2018Source Savills Research&ConsultancySource Savills Research&ConsultancyPROPERTYLOCATIONPRICEBUYERUSAGE10&12 Shelley StreetSydney,NSWAUD804.0 mil/US$578.9 milCharter HallOffi ce60 Margaret StreetSydney,NSWAUD420.0 mil/US$302.4 milBlackstoneOffi ce2 The EsplanadePerth,WAAUD326.1 mil/US$234.8 milGICOffi ce61 Mary StreetBrisbane,QLDAUD275.0 mil/US$198.0 milCharter HallOffi ce100 Skyring TceNewstead,QLDAUD250.0 mil/US$180.0 milGrowthpointPropertiesOffi ce5Asia Pacifi c Investment QuarterlyEn-Bloc Investment Volumes,2007 to 2018China(Northern)-BeijingJack XiongHead of PDC,Director Research+86 10 5925 Spring CaoSenior Director,InvestmentSavills Northern China+8610 5925 Major Investment Transactions,Q4/20180 0101020203030404050506060200720072008200820092009201020102011201120122012201320132014201420152015201620162017201720182018RMB BILLIONRMB BILLIONQ4Q4Q3Q3Q2Q2Q1Q1Source Savills Research&ConsultancySource Savills Research&ConsultancyPROPERTYLOCATIONPRICEBUYERUSAGEPacifi c Century PlaceChaoyangRMB10.5 bil/US$1.553 bilBeijing Yuanjing Mingde Management&Consulting Co.Mixed-use developmentLize D-03/04FengtaiRMB5.78 bil/US$855 milChina Fortune Land DevelopmentDevelopment siteOcean Offi ce ParkChaoyangRMB5.384 bil/US$796 milHarbour Link Ventures LtdOffi ceBeijing Oriental Culture and Art CentreDongchengRMB4.5 bil/US$666 milHony Capital/AEWOffi ceBeijing Jintong Roosevelt PlazaTongzhouRMB2.56 bil/US$379 milLink REITRetailLize F-03FengtaiRMB598 mil/US$88 milLongforRetailThe en-bloc investment market witnessed the closing of seven deals in Q4/2018,registering a total consideration of RMB29.42 billion.Traditional asset classes proved popular during the quarter with both offi ce and retail market deals accounting for the majority of acquisitions among all asset classes.Purchasing appetite was largely even in terms of domicile,with domestic and foreign buyers accounting for three deals each,while one project was acquired by a cross-border joint venture.Major transactions included:Pacifi c Century Place,in Chaoyang district,was acquired by Beijing Yuanjing Mingde Management&Consulting Co.from Gaw Capital for a total consideration of RMB10.5 billion.The new owner is a subsidiary of the investment arm of domestic real estate giant Lianjia.The selling price represents a mark-up of approximately 80%for Gaw Capital,having previously acquired the property for RMB5.75 billion in 2014.Lize D-03/04,a development site located in Fengtai district,was acquired by China Fortune Land Development from China Railway Materials Co.for RMB5.78 billion.Harbour Link Ventures Limited purchased a 94%equity share in Ocean Offi ce Park in the CBD in Chaoyang district for RMB5.38 billion.A joint venture between Hony Capital and AEW purchased the Beijing Oriental Culture and Art Centre in Dongcheng district.The offi ce project was acquired off Hong Kong-listed Hopson Development for a total consideration of RMB4.5 billion.Beijing Jingtong Roosevelt Plaza in Tongzhou district was acquired by Link Real Estate Investment Trust for RMB2.56 billion.The acquisition increases the foreign REITs retail holdings in Beijing to two shopping malls,following their initial entry into the market in 2015 with the purchase of EC mall in Zhongguancun district.Longfor acquired a 51%equity share in Lize F-03,a yet to be completed retail project in Fengtai district,for a consideration of RMB598 million.Sunshine Plaza in Chaoyang district was purchased by Yingtai Holdings for RMB100 million.The impact from urban planning policies has caused the supply of commercial land plots in Beijings urban areas to become increasingly scarce.The lack of supply has boosted the value of current commercial stock in the market.Projects in prime locations have become the new target for institutional investors due to their favourable returns and value-added yield.Investors are expected to enrich their portfolios by acquiring properties with greater returns and higher values.It is diffi cult to anticipate any relaxation in the current regulatory environment.Moving forward,companies with actual investment needs for assets are expected to be the main drivers of transactions;meanwhile,the shift away from speculative activity will Pacifi c Investment QuarterlyChina(Northern)-TianjinJack XiongHead of PDC,Director Research+86 10 5925 Andy CheeSenior DirectorSavills Tianjin+86 22 5830 The land market experienced a structural adjustment in supply in Q4/2018.A considerable number of land plots were on off er in the city centre,and the total transaction volume rose steadily.Land supply increased by 74%quarter-on-quarter(QoQ)to 5.05 million sq m,up 263%year-on-year(YoY)in Q4/2018.Total transaction volume grew 14%QoQ to 2.60 million sq m,down 4%YoY.The city centre became active again after three quiet quarters,supplying 11.4%of total land supply and 5.9%of total land transactions during the quarter.The fringe areas continued to show the highest level of activity,with supply and transaction volumes accounting for 43.0%and 61.4%of the city-wide total,respectively.Despite contributing around one-third of new land supply,the suburban area accounted for only 17.7%of total land transactions.Despite the postponement of two deals in the city centre,deals were closed for the other four land plots.Greentown acquired a 45,790 sq m mixed-use land plot in Jiefang South Road,Hexi district,for a total consideration of RMB1.8 billion and an accommodation value of RMB21,878 per sq m.Additionally,CCCG and Greentown jointly purchased another three land plots in Chentang area,Hexi district.Two of the three land plots were bought as a package and were zoned for residential and commercial use,with a total consideration of RMB1.8 billion.The other plot of land comes with a mixed-use title and was acquired with an accommodation value of RMB21,464 per sq m.Two land plots located in Hebei district were purchased by CRCC for a total consideration of RMB1.65 billion.The plots,totalling 42,000 sq m,were zoned for mixed-use development.Their overall accommodation value was RMB15,703 per sq m,with the accommodation value of the residential section at RMB19,923 per sq m.In an eff ort to continue curbing speculation in the residential market,the land market has witnessed an increase in land supply compared to earlier years.It is expected that more land plots will be purchased at minimum bid prices at land auctions,and fi rst-hand housing prices should remain stable in the near term.Land Supply And Transactions By Area,Q1/2011 to Q4/2018Major Investment Transactions,Q4/2018Source Savills Research&ConsultancySource Savills Research&ConsultancyPROPERTYLOCATIONPRICEBUYERUSAGEPlot 2018-201(JXJ)HexiRMB1.8 bil/US$261 milGreentownMixed-use developmentPlot 2018-180(JXC)HexiRMB760 mil/US$110 milCCCG GreentownMixed-use developmentPlot 2018-192/193(JBY)HebeiRMB1.6 bil/US$232 milCRCCMixed-use developmentPlot 2016-068(JW)WuqingRMB1.74 bil/US$252 milLocal developerMixed-use developmentPlot 2018-9(JBB)BinhaiRMB1.07 bil/US$155 milTianjin Free Trade Zone InvestmentMixed-usedevelopment0 01 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 91010Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3 Q4Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3 Q4Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3 Q4Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3 Q4Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3 Q4Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3 Q4Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3 Q4Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3 Q4Q42011201120122012201320132014201420152015201620162017201720182018MILLION SQ MMILLION SQ MCity Core SupplyCity Core SupplySuburb SupplySuburb SupplyFringe SupplyFringe SupplyBinhai SupplyBinhai SupplyCity Core TransactionsCity Core TransactionsSuburb TransactionsSuburb TransactionsFringe TransactionsFringe TransactionsBinhai TransactionsBinhai Transactions7Asia Pacifi c Investment QuarterlyChina(Western)-ChengduDahuang ChenAssociate DirectorResearch+86 23 6370 Suzie QingDirectorSavills Western China+86 28 8658 After the housing purchase lottery policy in 2017,aimed at restricting the number of of houses available for purchase,Chengdu,as one of the cities targeted for residential market regulation,intensifi ed a series of home purchasing policies in 2018.The“5.15”policy changed the subject of housing purchasing limitation from individual to family,tightening the requirements for purchasing a house.Regulations intensifi ed again in Q3/2018,as“24 terms”were introduced to resolutely curb speculation and ensure demand.Aff ected by the purchase and loan restrictions,transaction volume in the primary housing market continued to decrease.The transaction volume was 3.7 million sq m for the whole of 2018,a decrease of 33%year-on-year(YoY),though supply increased 17%YoY to 3.7 million sq m.The market performed better at the end of 2018 when supply and transaction volume in Q4/2018 increased by 277.9%and 41.8%,respectively,quarter-on-quarter(QoQ)to 1.92 million sq m and 1.12 million sq m.The average transaction price increased by 2.6%QoQ and 3.9%YoY to RMB15,169 per sq m in Q4/2018.Due to limited supply,