德勤-2019年假日购物零售报告-2019.11-28页.pdf

Deloitte 2019 holiday retail surveyTop 10 insightsThe Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry Center(the“center”)provides a forum for innovation,thought leadership,groundbreaking research,and industry collaboration to help companies solve the most complex industry challenges.Technology is changing at a rapid pace,and so are consumers.How will these changes impact the way our clients do business in the future?The center provides premier insights based on primary research on the most prevalent issues facing the consumer industry to help our clients run effectively and achieve superior business results.The center is your trusted source for information on leading trends and research that connect insights,issues,and solutions for Deloittes four consumer sectors:automotive;consumer products;retail,wholesale&distribution;and transportation,hospitality,and services.About the Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry CenterIntroduction 3Short-term consumer sentiment is positive,4 but headwinds are formingShoppers want great products,good deals,6 and more convenienceConsumers want their holiday gifts delivered for free 8The experience of celebrating the season with others is 10 the leading type of holiday spendOnline shopping is looking even stronger this holiday season 12Theres more to holiday high spenders than income alone 14Smartphones are becoming the go-to platform for 16 holiday shoppingOnline retailers and mass merchants are the most preferred 18 formats for holiday shoppingHoliday shopping is expected to peak in early December 20 this yearOnline retailers are the No.1 source of inspiration 22 for most shoppersIts time to jingle all the way 24Contents2Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey3RETAIL IS LOOKING to enjoy another cheerful holiday season.Deloittes annual holiday economic forecast estimates that holiday retail sales will increase 4.55 percent this year.E-commerce holiday sales are projected to grow 1418 percent over 2018.Our 34th annual holiday retail survey findings corroborate this forecast:Consumers seem bullish about the economy this year and their household financial situation,as reflected in their spending plans for the coming holiday season.And consumers again plan to shop online as their preferred holiday channel,with online purchases expected to account for 59 percent of consumer holiday spending.Consumers want to keep the good times rolling.In this years survey,we explore consumer sentiment and planned shopping behaviors to understand what consumers seek in this holiday shopping season.The 20 percent in the high-spender category(those spending US$2,101 or more)will account for 60 percent of the total holiday spend,and is especially keen on experiences.In order to win the holidays this year,high spenders should be a priority for retailersespecially those offering experiences.From a digital shopping perspective,smartphone use for purchases is rising while other digital devices remain constant.This is the season,then,for retailers to continue to innovate with individual store apps,creating seamless experiences from online to in-store.Data privacy remains a concern,but our study results show that consumers are more open to sharing data if retailers provide them with data access and control.This willingness to share increases when offered better pricing or discounts.What follows is a summary of our findings.We hope these insights will help guide retailers to capitalize on a cheerful holiday season and build deeper relationships with consumers to keep the momentum going well into the new year.Introduction3In order to win the holidays this year,high spenders should be a priority for retailersespecially those offering experiences.Top 10 insightsShort-term consumer sentiment is positive,but headwinds are forming14Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey5Note:Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers,n=4,140.Source:Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.2009201020112012201320142015201620172018201978%41%78%43%15%24%21%28%29%31%33%36%37%51%62%58%63%71%70%75%74%78%Holiday spending is projected to be the same as last year despite a weaker outlook for future household finances.FIGURE 1Shopper sentiment Holiday spend to be the same or more than last year Household finances better than last yearNote:Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers,n=4,140.Source:Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Fewer than 40 percent of consumers expect the economy to improve in 2020.54%24%37%30%24%29%32%33%33%33%26%22%39%33%50%46%43%42%45%41%47%34%28%18%26%37%25%25%22%25%27%44%26%FIGURE 2Economic outlook for the upcoming yearImprove significantly/modestly Remain the same Weaken significantly/modestlyCONSUMERS PLAN TO spend US$1,496 per household this year.While this is a slight drop from 2018(US$1,536),there is a positive growth trajectory since the post-Great Recession recovery began.Since 2012,projected consumer holiday spend has grown at a 5.4 percent compound annual growth rate,slightly outpacing overall retail sales of just over 4 percent during this same period.Consumer confidence and their personal financial situation are important determinants heading into the holiday season.While consumers are still expecting to spend,there are signals of uncertainty.For the first time since 2012,fewer than 40 percent of consumers expect the economy to improve in 2020.This is a 13 percent drop from 2018.One in five consumersthe same as the last two yearssay they plan to spend less this year.They cite a number of reasons,leading with the need to save more.Only 7 percent of all respondents cite general concern about the economy as a reason.Despite potential future headwinds,the holiday season should be cheerful.Top 10 insights6Shoppers want great products,good deals,and more convenience2Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey7THREE-QUARTERS OF CONSUMERS call price an important factor in their purchasing decisionssomething that retailers should keep in mind when rolling out holiday deals and promotions.But price isnt everything:Consumers continue to focus on retailers product quality and variety.In fact,having great products and brands scored highest among all consumers(85 percent)when asked about their key preferences.With ever more consumer choices of where and how to shop,maintaining quality stock should be high on retailers“shopping list.”Great deals and assortment will likely always be key drivers.As competition increases in those areasparticularly from online merchantsconsumers may be shifting to convenience aspects in choosing where to shop,meaning that convenience is growing as a potential differentiating factor.Finding the perfect itemand getting a great deal on that itemis always on shoppers minds,and this holiday season is no different.Note:Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers,n=4,140.Source:Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.Deloitte Insights| 3Products,deals,and convenience are top of mind for consumersTop 10 insightsConsumers want their holiday gifts delivered for free38Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey9INCREASINGLY,CONSUMERS WANT their holiday shipping to be fast and/or free,and options have grown,with many retailers offering fast or free shippingor the alternative of buying online and picking up at the store.Consumers have made their choice:Fully 85 percent prefer free shipping over fast shipping.This has stayed consistent over the last three to five years.Among those shoppers who prefer free shipping,over 80 percent are willing to wait three days or more for order delivery.And almost half of consumers plan to use the buy-online-pick-up-in-store option this holiday season.Retailers understand that convenience enhances the customer experience and can be a key differentiator.This last-mile supply chain,or how the product is delivered to consumers,has become another key battleground.In early communications and advertising for the 2018 and 2019 holiday seasons,delivery and fulfillment communications are moving to the forefront.Apart from last-minute gift purchases,consumers have clearly shown that free over fast for the holidays is their preferential delivery option.Share of shoppers opting for“free shipping”:85%of national sample*Share of shoppers opting for“fast shipping”:15%of national sampleNote:Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers,n=4,140.Source:Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.Deloitte Insights| days34 days57 days12 weeks13%2%10%21%15%3%9%1%18%40%27%41%67%of shoppers who opt for fast shipping want delivery in less than 2 days68%of shoppers who opt for free shipping are willing to wait 37 daysFIGURE 4Free vs.fast shipping:Timeframe shoppers are willing to wait for Free shipping Fast shipping*Top 10 insights10The experience of celebrating the season with others is the leading type of holiday spend4Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey11WHILE THERE IS a relatively even split in the high-level categories of where people are looking to spend,there is more than meets the eye with this one.While people are still planning to give,they also intend to travel,dine out,and spend more time socializing this season.Perhaps that is why the top item people report buying for themselves is food and drinkit is a festive season,after all.Travel and entertainment experiences are a key aspect of holiday intent and spend.Consumers planning on“socializing”through travel,staying at hotels,or dining in restaurants account for over a quarter of holiday spending.In fact,two-thirds of holiday shoppers plan on socializing away from home,spending an average of US$391.As we have seen in past years,the top gifts remain clothing,gift cards or certificates,and toys.However,the average number of gifts given has fallen to 15 from a peak of 21 in 2007.With spouses and children as the top gift recipients,it should still be a cheerful holiday season.Over the last five years,we have seen a modest increase in“experience”spending,growing from 38 percent to 40 percent of total spend.Gifts include gift cards/gift certificates*Experiences include socializing away from home/entertaining at homeNote:Figure indicates percentage of US holiday budget,100 percent=US$1,496.All dollar amounts are in US dollars.Source:Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.Deloitte Insights| NongiftsExperiences*75%Entertaining at home59%Dining at restaurants25%Staying overnight at hotels or resortsTop experiences55%Clothes53%Gift cards47%Games,toys,dolls,etc.Top giftsFIGURE 5Categories of spendTop 10 insightsOnline shopping is looking even stronger this holiday season512Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey13TIS THE SEASON to be online shopping.Deloitte has forecast retailers digital sales to be robust this holiday season,amounting to US$144$149 billion.E-commerce sales are expected to grow between 14 and 18 percent,higher than the 11.2 percent in 2018.Potentially aiding this growth is the smartphones prevalence,power,and popularity:Smartphone use for holiday shopping is expected to rise 6 percent,while other device use is flat.Our research suggests that two-thirds of consumers intend to begin their holiday shopping journeys at online retailers with few or no physical locations,including auction sites.Nearly the same number(58 percent)plan to use online search engines as their main source for research.Using online retail sites for research is a no-brainer,with retailers offering a breadth of products,customer reviews,and 24/7 ordering.In-store experience,however,still plays a major role in the shoppers journey.Many consumers still prefer to interact with products in person.Conversely,more than half of shoppers also plan on doing in-store research and buying online.This consumer journey of mixing online and in-store for research,pricing,and comparisons is now commonplace.Other retail channels(e.g.,catalog or direct mail promotion)not included(share of spend=3 percent in 2015,5 percent in 2016,7 percent in 2017,7 percent in 2018,and 5 percent in 2019)Note:Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers,n=4,280.All dollar amounts are in US dollars.Source:Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.Deloitte Insights| the projected in-store spending has remained the same,more consumers say theyll be spending online,compared to 2018.20152016201720182019In-store$541 average spendOnline$879 average spend46%51%45%50%38%55%36%36%57%59%FIGURE 6Percentage share of spend:Online vs.in-storeIn-store Online*Top 10 insightsOver two-thirds of holiday shoppers suggest they will research online and buy at least some gifts in-store.Theres more to holiday high spenders than income alone614Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey15RETAILERS RACE TO capture the high spenders hearts and wallets during the holiday season is hardly new.To understand the profile of high spenders,we analyzed the 20 percent of all shoppers who intend to spend over US$2,100,accounting for 60 percent of total holiday spending.While its no surprise that a majority(65 percent)of high spenders are individuals from higher-income households(over US$100,000),25 percent are from middle-income households(US$50,000$99,000),and 10 percent from lower-income households.This group also tends to be older,with 65 percent over age 40.They are more likely to be buying clothing,gift cards,and books for family members,especially spouses and children.Their largest spend(31 percent of their holiday budget)goes toward travel and socializing away from home.High spenders are more likely to use technology to shop during the holiday season.Nearly two-thirds plan on using smartphones for shopping,compared to only half for the rest of the population.For retailers to win this holiday season,they should pay attention to where and how this group shops and on what.Note:All dollar amounts are in US dollars.Source:Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.Deloitte Insights| spendSmartphone use for shoppingLow spendersBottom 20%$305 or lessGen X and boomers42%Children40%Spouse/partner37%1 Clothing2 Gift cards3 Games/toys45%12%High spendersTop 20%$2,101 or moreGen X and boomers65%1 Clothing2 Gift cards3 BooksSpouse/partner78%Children74%62%31%Types of gifts“Socializing away from home”as percentage of holiday spendTop gift recipientsGenerationFIGURE 7High spenders spend a large part of their holiday budget on socializing Top 10 insights16Smartphones are becoming the go-to platform for holiday shopping7Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey17THE SMARTPHONE IS becoming as ubiquitous to holiday shopping as going to the mall used to bemaybe even more so.Consumers are taking advantage of quick access to products,reviews,social media,and seamless checkouts,likening smartphone shopping to a point-of-sale anywhere.Over the last two years,the smartphone has grown in consumer usage,while laptops,desktops,and tablets have remained constant.Consumer shopping preferences for other devices seem to have plateaued.Technology has increasingly driven the holiday shopping experience,with new gadgets,game consoles,and in-store technologies arriving regularl