房地产行业：降准或令融资边际改善但难有效提振需求-20190107-申万宏源（香港）-10页.pdf

SWS Research Co.Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities.99 East Nanjing Road,Shanghai|+86 21 2329 7818 Industry Research Bringing China to the World 7 January 2019 Equalweight Unchanged 降准降准或或令令融资融资边际边际改善改善 但但难难有效有效提振提振需求需求 房地产行业Analyst Kris Li A0230511040076 ARG379 Related Reports Unchanged policy tone,Dec24,2018 Cooling into October,Nov19,2018 Razing taxes raises roofs,Oct22,2018 中国人民银行周五晚间宣布下调金融机构存款准备金率 1 个百分点以个百分点以置置换换部分中期借部分中期借贷贷便利便利，预计净释放资金 8000 亿元。这是去年 4 月以来第四次降准，但与过去十年中的其他三次宽松周期相比，本轮宽松迄今尚未启动降息，且亦未有任何针对房地产的实质宽松政策。我们因此认为降准对于进入下降通道的房地产市场实际提振作用有限，经济减速和就业疲弱将令 2019 年房地产需求承压。我们维持行业标配评级，降准带来的板块估值修复料将有限。四次降准比四次降准比较较。回顾 2008 年迄今的 10 年，中国一共经历了四轮降准，分别为 2008/09-2008/12(三次 200bp)，2011/12-2012/05(三次 150bp)，2015/02-2016/02(五次 300bp)，以及 2018/04 至今(四次 350bp)，但此前三轮降准的同时都伴随着大幅降息，分别经历了四次降息 189bp、两次降息 50bp 以及五次降息 125bp，且为激励房地产需求，伴随这三轮货币宽松，首付比例出现了不同程度的下调且按揭贷款利率定价在窗口指导下亦出现了显著的优惠。但本轮降准至今 8 个月，我们尚未看到基准利率发生变动，我们宏观团队亦认为 2019 年降息可能性小，与此同时，房地产政策亦未看到实质性松动，中央经济工作会议对于房地产政策的口径也没有改变。因此，我们认为目前的降准还是意在给予小微和民企更多支持，对于房地产行业基本面的边际改善影响有限。需求展望疲需求展望疲软软。我们看到宏观经济中出现的压力，GDP 增速可能在今年首季减速至接近10 年新低，各行业的裁员新闻亦扑面而来，这对住房购买力形成了明显的压力。而 2016-2018 作为中国居民加杠杆的高峰，我们看到新增居民消费贷款分别达到了 6.3 万亿，7.1万亿，7.5 万亿这个量级，占当年新增贷款的占比从 08-15 年的平均 31%窜升到了 16-18年的 50%，53%和 45%，其中以房贷为主的居民中长期贷款分别达到 5.7 万亿，5.3 万亿和 5.1 万亿，部分居民短贷亦间接流入了房地产市场。展望 2019 年，虽然货币整体将偏向宽松，但企业料将是政策支持的重点，要在此前三年高基数上给予居民贷款进一步倾斜的空间有限。因此，虽然我们认为在一二线城市放松认房又认贷以及下调首付比例有助于激励部分被压制的需求，但在有限的信贷支持下，这对三四线城市则构成了负面影响，尤其是考虑到棚改政策的变化。18 年年销销售回售回顾顾。我们跟踪的 17 家上市房企 2018 年的平均合约销售增速放缓至 32%，16和 17 年则分别为 54%和 56%，如果按权益合约销售额计算，2016-2018 的平均增速则为49%、50%和 28%。其中，前四大开发商-碧桂园、万科、恒大、融创的增速分别放缓到30%、13%、10%和 23%，相较各自在 16/17 年的权益合约销售增速 89%/66%、42%/45%、86%/34%以及 139%/155%显著下滑。而这 17 家企业中销售规模排名在全国前11-30 名中的，18 年的销售增速则进一步加快至 76%（16 和 17 年为 37%和 58%），显著快于 Top10 企业。目前尚未有房企明确披露 2019 年合约销售目标，但鉴于直至 18 年三季度才开始显著收缩的土地购置，多数企业表示 19 年可售货源仍然非常充足，对实现 19年销售增长表示有信心。全国来看，18 年新房销售面积预计大致与 17 年持平，金额而言仍有约 15%的增长，19 年我们预测可售面积个位数增长（其中存货下降 10%，新增供应增长 20%），销售面积低双位数下滑，三四线城市下滑的幅度显著超过一二线城市。维维持板持板块标块标配配评级评级。我们在 10 月下旬将板块评级升至标配，政策不会再紧、估值优势以及减税预期是三大主要原因，此后迄今板块最高反弹两成以上。但我们认为市场对政策转暖预期过高，对基本面惯性向下估计不足，房企融资可能出现边际改善，但目前的微调式放松难以抵消宏观下行带来的压力。中资地产股目前平均估值位于 47%净资产值折价，5.5/4.6 倍 18/19PE，0.9/0.7 倍 18/19PB，18 年股息率 7.1%。我们维持行业标配评级以及首推华润置地，行业未来三年的主题词是去杠杆和去库存。如果一二线城市调控出现实质性放松，中海和龙湖将最多受益。我们继续提示三四线布局较多的个股，包括碧桂园和世茂房地产。The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page.7 January 2019 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1 The Peoples Bank of China(PBoC)announced a reserve requirement ratio(RRR)cut of 100bps last Friday,partially replacing its medium-term lending facility(MLF)and representing an estimated net liquidity of Rmb800bn.This is the fourth RRR cut since April 2018;however,no interest rate cut has been announced yet,while we see no sign of significant relaxation of Chinas property tightening policies.As such,we expect to see limited stimulation in the property market,while home demand will remain under pressure in 2019,given the economic slowdown and weakening employment.We maintain our Equalweight rating on the real estate sector.New easing cycle.China conducted four rounds of RRR cuts in 2008-2018,including 200bps cuts in September-December 2008,150bps cuts in December 2011-May 2012,300bps cuts in February 2015-February 2016,and 350bps cuts in April 2018-January 2019.The previous three rounds were all accompanied with interest rate cuts(189bps,50bps,and 125bps cuts,respectively),while China also lowered the down payment ratio and offered attractive mortgage rates to stimulate home demand.However,in this round of RRR cuts,no interest rate cut has been announced yet and our macro team sees limited likelihood for this to happen in 2019,while property regulation remains in place without substantial loosening.We thus expect to see limited improvement in fundamentals as this round of RRR cuts mainly aims to support micro-sized and private enterprises.Weakening demand.We forecast strong pressure on home demand in 2019 given the weakening economy,as GDP growth may slow down to a 10-year low in 1Q19,coupled with worsening employment.We note total incremental household loans reached Rmb6.3tn in 2016,Rmb7.1tn in 2017,and Rmb7.5bn in 2018E,with the proportion of total incremental Rmb loans surging from the historical average of 31%in 2008-2015 to 50%,53%,and 45%,respectively.Looking forward,we see limited room for liquidity support of household loans given a high base in 2016-18,while the policy support mainly focuses on companies.Therefore,although we believe relaxing the recognition of first-home mortgages and lowering the down payment ratio of second-home mortgages might be effective in boosting demand in higher-tier cities,it will cast a shadow on lower-tier cities given limited liquidity support,especially taking tightening shantytown rebuilding into account.2018 sales review.The average contract sales YoY growth of the 17 key listed developers under our coverage decelerated to 32%last year(vs+54-56%in 2016-17),or 28%in the attributable sense(vs+49-50%in 2016-17).More specifically,attributable contract sales YoY growth for the four largest developers,namely Country Garden(02007:HK Hold),China Vanke(02202:HK Not rated),China Evergrande(03333:HK Not rated),and Sunac China(01918:HK Not rated),significantly slowed down to 30%,13%,10%,and 23%,respectively,last year.Meanwhile,sales YoY growth for the other developers ranking top-11 to 30 in terms of sales accelerated to 76%(vs+37-58%in 2016-17),significantly outperforming top-10 developers.Although developers havent disclosed 2019 sales targets yet,most of them remain confident about achieving sales growth in 2019 given sufficient sellable resources.We expect national new home sales to be flat by volume and rise 15%YoY by value in 18E,and forecast a double-digit YoY decline in sales volume in 19E,with lower-tier cities significantly underperforming top-tier cities,and single-digit total supply YoY growth.Maintain Equalweight.Hong Kong-listed Chinese property stocks rebounded by c.20%after we upgraded our rating from Underweight to Equalweight in late October 2018,given limited room for further property tightening,attractive valuations,and expectations of additional tax cuts.However,we think investors were too optimistic on policy loosening,and believe the current relaxation will not be sufficient to offset the economic downward pressure.The sector trades at a 47%discount to net asset value,5.5x 18E PE,4.6x 19E PE,0.9x 18E PB,and 0.7x 19E PB,with 7.1%dividend yield.We maintain Equalweight.China Resources Land(01109:HK Outperform)remains our top pick.We also like China Overseas Land&Investment(00688:HK Hold)and Longfor(00960:HK Outperform),as primary beneficiaries of potential regulation relaxation in higher-tier cities,while remaining cautions about Country Garden and Shimao(00813:HK Hold),given strong exposure to lower-tier cities.7 January 2019 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 2 New easing cycle The Peoples Bank of China(PBoC)announced a RRR cut of 100bps last Friday to replace partial Medium-term Lending Facility(MLF)and estimated to release net liquidity of Rmb800bn.This is the fourth RRR cut since Apr-2018,however,compared with the three easing cycles in the past decade,no interest rate cut has been announced yet and we see no substantial property policy loosening.Thus we expect to see limited marginal boost for the property market entering the down cycle,while the home demand to be under pressure in 2019 given economic slowdown and weakening employment.China conducted four rounds of RRR cuts in the past decade(2008-2018),including three cuts of total 200bps in 2008/09-2008/12,three cuts of total 150bps in 2011/122-2012/05,five cuts of total 300bps in 2015/02-2016/02 and four cuts of total 350bps in 2018/04 to present.However,whats worth noticing,these previous three rounds of RRR cuts were all accompanied with sharp interest rate cuts,namely,four cuts of total 189bps,two cuts of total 50bps and five cuts of 125bps.Meanwhile,to stimulate home demand,China also lowered the minimum down payment ratio requirement nationwide in these three easing cycles,while mortgage loans rates offered attractive pricing under window guidance.However,in this round of RRR cuts starting from Apr-2018,we havent seen any interest rate cut by now and our Macro team expect to see limited likelihood for interest rate cut in 2019,while the property regulation remain in place without any substantial loosening under the unchanged policy tone from Central Economic Work Conference.Therefore,we expect to see limited marginal improvement in the sector fundamentals as this round of RRR cuts mainly aimed to offer more support for micro enterprises and private enterprises.Fig 1:New home sales volumes YoY growth recovered in the past three rounds of RRR cuts in 2008-2016 Fig 2:Past three rounds of RRR cuts were all accompanied with interest rate cuts in 2008-2016 Source:CEIC,NBS,SWS Research Source:CEIC,NBS,SWS Research Fig 3:Terms of home mortgages loans regulated by the central bank The minimum down payment Ratio May-06 Sep-07 Oct-08 Dec-08 Jan-10 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Apr-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 1st home 30%30%20%20%20%20%30%30%30%25%20-25%2nd home 40%40%40%50%50%60%40%40%30-40%The maximum discount or the minimum premiums of mortgage rates to benchmark rates May-06 Sep-07 Oct-08 Dec-08 Jan-10 to present 1st home-15%-15%-30%-30%-30%2nd home+10%+10%-30%+10%Note:1)The most two recent cuts of minimum down payment ratio in Oct-15 and Feb-16 dont apply to Tier-1 cities.2)Figures highlighted in red refer to the change over the period.Source:PBoC,SWS Research -40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%10121416182022Mar-07Sep-07Mar-08Sep-08Mar-09Sep-09Mar-10Sep-10Mar-11Sep-11Mar-12Sep-12Mar-13Sep-13Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18(%)Deposit-Reserve Requirement Ratio of big banks(LHS)%Chg YoY of new home sales volumes,Monthly(RHS)-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%4.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.0Mar-07Sep-07Mar-08Sep-08Mar-09Sep-09Mar-10Sep-10Mar-11Sep-11Mar-12Sep-12Mar-13Sep-13Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18(%)Long-term(5 years+)borrowing rate%Chg YoY of new home sales volumes,Monthly(RHS)7 January 2019 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 3 Fig 4:Average rates of mortgage loans Source:PBoC,SWS Research Weakening demand outlook We see significant pressure on home demand in 2019 given weakening macro economy with GDP growth may slow down to a 10-year low in 1Q19 accompanied with worsening employment.In 2016-2018 with soaring residents leverage,the total incremental household loans reached Rmb6.3tn in 2016,Rmb7.1tn in 2017 and Rmb7.5bn in 2018E,with the percentage as of total incremental Rmb loans surging from historical average of 31%in 2008-2015 to 50%,53%and 45%,of which medium-to long-term household loans recorded Rmb5.7tn,Rmb5.3tn and Rmb5.1tn respectively,while some short-term household loans also flowed into the property market.Looking forward in 2019,we see limited room of liquidity support for the household loans given the high base in 2016-2018,while the easing policy support would mainly focus on enterprises.Therefore,although we believe relaxing the recognition of first-home mortgages and lowering the down payment ratio of second-home mortgages might be effective in boosting demand in higher-tier cities,it would cast a shadow on lower-tier cities under limited liquidity support,especially when taking a slowdown in shanty town rebuilding into account.Fig 5:Residents leverage Fig 6:Total household loans as a%of total incremental loans Source:PBoC,SWS Research Source:PBoC,SWS Research -30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%Mar-07Sep-07Mar-08Sep-08Mar-09Sep-09Mar-10Sep-10Mar-11Sep-11Mar-12Sep-12Mar-13Sep-13Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18Weighted Average Rates of Mortgage Loans(LHS)Average Discount or Premium to Benchmark Rates(RHS)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018ERmb100mnIncremental medium-and long-term household loansIncremental short-term household loans14%26%36%32%31%42%34%33%50%53%45%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,0002008200920102011201220132014201520162017 2018ERmb100 mnTotal Incremental Loans（LHS）Total household loans(LHS)Household Loans as%of Total Incremental Loans(RHS)7 January 2019 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 4 2018 sales review The average contracted sales YoY growth of 17 key listed developers under our track decelerated to 32%in 2018(vs.54%and 56%in 2016-2017),or 28%in attributable sense in 2018(vs.49%and 50%in 2016-2017).More specifically,the attributable contracted sales YoY growths of four largest developers,namely,Country Garden(02007:HK Hold),Vanke(02202:HK-Not rated),Evergrande(03333:HK Not rated)and Sunac(01918:HK Not rated)significantly slowed down to 30%,13%,10%and 23%in 2018,(vs.89%/66%,42%/45%,86%/34%and 139%/155%in 2016-2017).However,the sales YoY growth of the rest developers ranking Top11-30 in terms of sale scale nationwide accelerated to 76%in 2018(vs.37%and 58%in 2016-2017),significantly outperforming the Top10 developers.Although developers havent disclosed 2019 sales targets yet,most of them remain confident to achieve sales growth in 2019 given sufficient sellable resources as land purchases began to slow down starting from 3Q18.As for the national home sales,we expect the new home sales to remain flat by volume,or 15%YoY by value in 2018E,and forecast a double-digit YoY decline in new home sales volume in 2019E,of which lower-tier cities would recorded bigger decline than high-tier cities,while total supply expect to rise by single-digit YoY in 2019E(of which inventories decline 10%YoY and new launches increase 20%YoY).Fig 7:Contract sales of key listed developers,2012-2018 Contracted sales(Rmb bn)%Chg yoy of Contracted sales Code Listcos 12A 13A 14A 15A 16A 17A 18A 13A 14A 15A 16A 17A 18A 2007 HK Country Garden 48 106 129 140 309 551 729 123%21%9%120%78%32%2202 HK Vanke 141 171 215 261 364 530 607 21%26%22%39%45%15%3333 HK Evergrande 92 100 132 201 373 501 551 9%31%53%85%34%10%1918 HK Sunac 32 51 66 68 151 362 461 61%30%4%121%140%27%688 HK COLI 89 111 115 154 185 207 263 24%4%34%21%11%27%960 HK Longfor 40 48 49 55 88 156 201 20%2%11%62%77%29%1109 HK CR Land 52 66 69 85 108 152 211 27%4%23%27%41%30%1030 HK Future Land 16 21 24 32 65 126 220 28%16%33%104%94%74%884 HK CIFI 10 15 21 30 53 104 163 61%38%43%75%96%56%813 HK Shimao 46 67 70 67 68 101 176 46%5%-5%2%48%75%2777 HK R&F 33 42 54 54 61 82 131 27%29%0%12%35%60%3383 HK Agile 33 40 44 44 53 81 103 22%9%0%19%53%27%3377 HK Sino-ocean 31 36 40 41 50 71 110 15%12%1%24%40%55%817 HK China Jinmao 11 15 19 28 37 58 128 36%27%50%35%55%121%1628 HK Yuzhou 7 11 12 14 23 40 56 68%10%17%66%74%39%1813 HK KWG 1 1 27 25 29