IBEF-印度零售业分析（12月）（英文）-2018.12-34页.pdf

For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org December 2018 RETAIL Table of Content Advantage India.5 Market Overview and Trends.7 Strategies adopted.15 Growth Drivers.18 Key Industry Organisations.29 Useful Information.31 Executive Summary.3 Opportunities.26 For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Retail market in India(US$billion)672 1,200 05001,0001,50020172021FModern retail market in India(US$billion)13.51 26.67 010203020162019FConsumer expenditure in India(US$billion)Notes:CAGR-Compound Annual Growth Rate,F-Forecast,E-Estimated Source:Ernst and Young,Price Waterhouse Cooper,Economic Times,MRRSI and Assocham-The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India,Consumer Leads report by FICCI and Deloitte-October 2018 1,824 3,600 01,0002,0003,0004,00020172020FRising income and demand for quality products to boost consumer expenditure.Total consumption expenditure is expected to reach nearly US$3,600 billion by 2020 from US$1,824 billion in 2017.Indian retail one of the fastest growing markets in the world due to economic growth.India is the worlds fifth largest global destination in the retail space.Retail market in India is projected to grow from an estimated US$672 billion in 2017 to US$1,200 billion in 2021F.Indias modern retail to double in size over the next three years.The modern retail market in India is expected to grow from US$13.51 billion in 2016 to US$26.67 billion in 2019.For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Revenue from online retail in India(US$billion)FMCG market in India(US$billion)Source:,eMarketer Notes:CAGR-Compound Annual Growth Rate,F forecast,All the years denote calendar year,-FY18 Robust consumption,rural markets to augment FMCG market.FMCG market expected to increase to US$103.7 billion by 2020 from Rs 3.4 lakh crore(US$52.75 billion)in FY2018.Increasing participation from foreign and private players to boost retail infrastructure.Indias online retail sector grows 23 per cent to US$17.8 billion in 2017.Online retail sales is forecasted to grow at the rate of 31 per cent year-on-year to reach US$32.70 billion in 2018.Revenue generated from online retail is projected to grow to US$60 billion by 2020.13.00 14.50 17.80 32.70 60.00 0102030405060702015201620172018F2020 E49.00 52.75 103.70 020406080100120201620182020 FRetail ADVANTAGE INDIA For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 6 ADVANTAGE INDIA Healthy economic growth,changing demographic profile,increasing disposable incomes,changing consumer tastes and preferences are driving growth in the organised retail market in India.Rapid urbanisation with increasing purchasing power has led to growing demand.Retail space demand is expected to increase at the rate of 81 per cent to 7.8 million sq ft in 2018.Collective efforts of financial houses and banks with retailers are enabling consumers to go for durable products with easy credit.Foreign retailers are continuously entering the Indian market.Cumulative FDI inflow in retail as of June 2018 stood at US$1.42 billion.As of September 2018,Samara Capital and Amazon acquired More.About 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail.100 per cent FDI in single-brand retail under the automatic route.Goods and Service Tax(GST)was introduced as a form of single unified tax system.To provide a level-playing field to stakeholders,the government is planning to synchronise policies of retail,FMCG and e-commerce within a single policy framework.ADVANTAGE INDIA Source:Report of the Task force on Financing Plan for Ports,Government of India,JLL report Note:FY Indian Financial Year(AprilMarch),NMDP National Maritime Development Programme,FDI Foreign Direct Investment,MMT Million Metric Tonnes,Retail MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 8 EVOLUTION OF RETAIL IN INDIA Source:Technopak Advisors Pvt Ltd,BCG Pre 1990s 1990-2005 2005-2010 2010 onwards Manufacturers opened their own outlets.Pure-play retailers realised the potential of the market.Most of them in apparel segment.Substantial investment commitments by large Indian corporate.Entry in food and general merchandise category.Pan-India expansion to top 100 cities.Repositioning by existing players.Cumulative FDI inflow from April 2000 to June 2018,in the retail sector,reached US$1.42 billion.Retail 2020:Retrospect,Reinvent,Rewrite.Movement to smaller cities and rural areas.More than 56 players with revenues over US$1 trillion by 2020.Large-scale entry of international brands.Approval of FDI limit in multi-brand retail up to 51 per cent.Rise in private label brands by retail players.Sourcing and investment rules for supermarkets were relaxed.E commerce has emerged as one of the major segments.100 per cent FDI in single brand retail under the automatic route.For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 9 RETAIL FORMATS IN INDIA Mono/exclusive branded retail shops Multi-branded retail shops Convergence retail outlets E-retailers Exclusive showrooms owned or franchised out by a manufacturer.Complete range available for a given brand,certified product quality.Focus on particular product categories and carry most of the brands available.Customers have more choices as many brands are on display.Display most of convergence as well as consumer/electronic products,including communication and IT group.One-stop shop for customers;many product lines of different brands on display.It is an online shopping facility for buying and selling products and services;the facility is widely used for electronics,health and wellness.Highly convenient as it provides 24X7 access,saves time and ensures secure transaction.Source:Aranca Research Note:IT-Information Technology For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 10 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE IN INDIAN RETAIL SECTOR Departmental stores Hypermarkets Supermarkets/convenience stores Specialty stores Cash and carry stores Pantaloon has 209 stores.Westside operates 126 stores as of May 2018.Shoppers Stop has 83 stores in India,as of 2018.As of FY18,Reliance Retail launched Trends in this format and currently has more than 3,300 stores across India.Pantaloon Retail is the leader in this format,with 259 Big Bazaar stores and online franchisees.Aditya Birla Retail(More Hypermarket)-20 stores.HyperCITY(19 stores),Trent,Spencers(Spencer Hyper),and Reliance are other players.Aditya Birla Retail-More Supermarket(523 stores).Spencers Daily(120 stores).Reliance Fresh(502 stores).REI 6Ten(350 stores).Big Bazaar(259 stores).Titan Industries is a large player,with 438 World of Titan,200 Tanishq and 470 Titan Eye+shops.Vijay Sales,Croma and E-Zone are into consumer electronics.Landmark and Crossword focus on books and gifts.Metro started the cash and carry model in India;the company operates 24 stores across Mumbai,Kolkata,Delhi,Punjab,Hyderabad and Bengaluru.As of FY18,Reliance Retail operates 43 cash and carry stores called Reliance Market.Retail Source:Company websites,Press Release For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 11 STRONG GROWTH IN THE INDIAN RETAIL INDUSTRY Note:*CAGR for 2000-2016,F Forecast,E Estimated Source:,BMI Research,Consumer Leads report by FICCI and Deloitte-October 2018 The retail sector in India is emerging as one of the largest sectors in the economy.The total market size of Indian retail industry reached US$672 billion in 2017.It is forecasted to increase to US$1,200 billion by 2021 and 1,750 billion by 2026.India will become a favourable market for fashion retailers on the back of a large young adult consumer base,increasing disposable incomes and relaxed FDI norms.Visakhapatnam port traffic(million tonnes)Market size over the past few years(US$billion)204 238 278 321 368 424 518 490 534 600 641 672 1,200 1,750 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002000200220042006200820102012201320142015201620172021F2026F*CAGR 10.97%For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 12 ORGANISED RETAIL IN NASCENT STAGE Source:BCG,KPMG-,Deloitte Report,Winning in Indias Retail Sector,Centre for Digital Financial Inclusion(CDFI)report,Crisil,Consumer Leads report by FICCI and Deloitte-October 2018 88%9%3%Traditional retailOrganised retailE-commerce*Significant scope for expansion Note:E estimate,F Forecast,*-e-commerce market here refers to sale of products and services through electronic transactions,home shopping is considered a part of e-commerce As of 2017E,the traditional retail,organised retail and e-commerce segments account for an estimated 88 per cent,nine per cent and three per cent of the market,respectively.The organised retail market in India is growing at a CAGR of 20-25 per cent per year.It is projected that by 2021 traditional retail will hold a major share of 75 per cent,organised retail share will reach 18 per cent and e-commerce retail share will reach seven per cent of the total retail market.The unorganised retail sector in India has huge untapped potential for adopting digital mode of payments,as 63 per cent of the retailers are interested in using digital payments like mobile and card payments.75%18%7%2017E 2021F For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 13 SECTORS HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL IS ATTRACTING INVESTORS FDI Confidence Index 2018 2.09 1.82 1.81 1.77 1.76 1.72 1.7 1.66 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.53 00.511.522.5United StatesCanadaGermanyUnited KingdomChinaJapanFranceAustraliaSwitzerlandItalyIndiaSingaporeSource:AT Kearney 2017 FDI Confidence Index Note:FDI-Foreign Direct Investment India has occupied a remarkable position in global retail rankings;the country has high market potential,low economic risk and moderate political risk.Indias high growth potential compared to global peers has made it more favourable.India is expected to become the worlds third-largest consumer economy,reaching US$400 billion in consumption by 2025,according to a study by Boston Consulting Group.In FDI Confidence Index,India ranks 11th(after U.S.,Canada,Germany,United Kingdom,China,Japan,France,Australia,Switzerland and Italy).India is ranked first in the Global Retail Development Index 2017,backed by rising middle class and rapidly growing consumer spending.For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 14 RISING PROMINENCE OF ONLINE RETAIL Online retail in India(US$billion)13.00 14.50 17.80 32.70 60.00 73.00 010203040506070802015201620172018F2020F2022FSource:MasterCard Worldwide Insights 4Q 2010,ANAROCK,ASSOCHAM,UN Report The power of 1.8 billion,Nasscom annual guidance 2018,RedSeer Consulting,eMarketer Notes:APMEA-Asia/Pacific,Middle East and Africa,F-Forecast Online retail business is the next generation format which has high potential for growth.Currently,it is estimated to be a US$50 billion opportunity.After conquering physical stores,retailers are now foraying into the domain of e-retailing.It had a market size of US$18 billion in 2017 and is forecasted to reach US$32.70 billion by 2018.Online retail market is estimated to reach US$60 billion by 2020.The online retail market sales is forecasted to grow at the rate of 31 per cent year-on-year to reach US$32.70 billion in 2018.It is projected to reach US$73.00 billion by 2022F.Indias ecommerce industrys sales rose 40 per cent year-on-year to reach Rs 9,000 crore(US$1.5 billion)during the five-day sale period ending September 24,2017,backed by huge deals and discounts offered by the major ecommerce companies.It is forecasted to reach US$53 billion by 2018.The government plans to allow 100 per cent FDI in e-commerce,under the arrangement that the products sold must be manufactured in India to gain from the liberalised regime.Indian E-Commerce Market(US$billion)39 50 100 200 02040608010012014016018020020172018F2020F2026FRetail STRATEGIES ADOPTED For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 16 STRATEGIES ADOPTED Source:Company website,News Articles It is imperative for a retailer to have a strong distribution and logistic network to succeed in this sector.Players follow a distribution network that suits them the best.For example,Shoppers Stop follows a“hub and spoke”model for its distribution network to increase efficiency and productivity.Certain retailers adopt first price right approach.Retailers do not offer discounts under this strategy:they directly compete on the selling price by offering a best price without any markdowns.Lowering prices As of October 2018,Xiaomi opened 500 Mi stores in rural region of India.It aims to open 5,000 such retail stores all over the country by the end of 2019.Cafe Coffee Day(CCD)aims to expand its business by adding about 100 stores every year to have a network of around 2,500 stores in the next seven to eight years.To improve consumer outreach Amway India will open 25 new Xpress Pick and Pay(XPP)stores in India in 2018.On August 09,2018 IKEA worlds largest furniture retailer opened its first retail store in Hyderabad and it plans to open 24 more stores by 2025.Expansion Retailers are opting for many channel to maximise sales,Omni-channel retailing is being adopted by many retailers in India.For example,Shoppers Stop is making efforts to be an omni-channel retailer.Ezone has launched an online platform,which has led to increase in sales.As of September 2018,V-Mart Retail aims to expand its business with omni-channel strategy to reach customers through online retail.Omni-channel retailing It is imperative for a retailer to have a strong distribution and logistic network to succeed in this sector.Players follow a distribution network that suits them the best.For example,Shoppers Stop follows a“hub and spoke”model for its distribution network to increase efficiency and productivity.Strong distribution and logistic network As of October 2018,Procter&Gamble India(P&G India)launched Innovation Sourcing Fund,a multimillion-dollar fund to invest in Indian start-ups.Collaborative growth Most retailers have advanced off-season sales from 15 days to a month with discounts of 20-70 per cent on certain products.Also higher discounts and other value-added services for members.Offering discounts For updated information,please visit www.ibef.org Retail 17 STRATEGIES ADOPTED Source:International Companies offer innovative value-added services,like customer loyalty programmes and happy hours on shopping deals.Offers for senior citizens,contests for students and lottery gains are now very common.Offering value-added services To keep customers on shop floors for a longer time and increase conversions,retailers are now pitching to partner with manufacturers,service providers,financial companies,etc.to create a buzz around certain product categories.Leveraging partnerships Critical components of supply chain planning applications help retailers to maintain profit margins.Innovative solutions like performance management,frequent sales operation management,demand planning,inventory planning,production planning and lean systems can help retailers to get advantage