GSM-区域聚焦：5GmmWave的影响报告（英文）-2019.7-44页.pdf

The WRC series Regional Spotlights:Impact of mmWave 5G July 2019Copyright 2019 GSMAThe GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide,uniting more than 750 operators with over 350 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem,including handset and device makers,software companies,equipment providers and internet companies,as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors.The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona,Los Angeles and Shanghai,as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences.For more information,please visit the GSMA corporate website at .Follow the GSMA on Twitter:GSMA.TMG is a consulting firm specialising in the information and communication technologies(ICT)sector.For over 25 years,TMG has assisted public and private sector entities around the world on ICT policy and regulatory matters.Our team focuses on providing insight and developing strategies to assist clients on technology and market trends,the development mobile services;spectrum policy and management;broadband and ICT strategies;economic assessments and valuations,among other matters.For more information,please visit .REGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5G Executive Summary 2 Regional Spotlights:Examples of projected impacts and benefits 31.Introduction 62.Sub-Saharan Africa 8 2.1.Sub-Saharan Africa,Case Study#1:Smart transportation logistics hubs 10 2.2.Sub-Saharan Africa Case Study#2:Extractive industries 133.South and South East Asia and the Pacific Islands 16 3.1.Case Study#1:Connectivity 18 3.2.Case Study#2:Disaster Communications 224.Latin America and the Caribbean 28 4.1.Case Study#1:Education 30 4.2.Case Study#2:Transport 325.Regional Commonwealth in the field of Communications 34 5.1.Case Study#1:Automation across industry 36 5.2.Case Study#2:Healthcare 391REGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5GContentsExecutive Summary 2Over the past 30 years,mobile technology has fundamentally transformed our lives improving human connections and access to vital services on a global scale.Today,more than two-thirds of the worlds people are connected to a mobile network.Mobile connectivity impacts how we work,play,live,learn,and conduct business.REGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5GThis is especially true for emerging economies,where mobile technologies currently connect 3.7 billion people and counting.Particularly for people in these economies,mobile technologies are the great connector,empowering societies,providing financial access to previously unbanked communities,and facilitating access to communications and information for those living in remote areas.The mobile industry fuels development providing the tools to fight malaria,empower women,document birth registrations,generate new businesses,assist with refugee crises,and respond to natural disasters.We are on the verge of another critical leap forward for mobile services,as countries increasingly shift to the deployment of 5G technologies.5G has the potential to impact societies even more broadly than other mobile technologies,driving innovation and transforming the digital landscape across diferent industries and sectors of the society.We will soon see the mass availability of phones with faster broadband,cars that communicate with other vehicles and smart transport infrastructure.Add to that intelligent factories,and innovative tools for remote access to education and medical care,among many other new 5G-powered developments.The benefits of 5G are truly global,with impacts and new capabilities cutting across industries(e.g.energy production,transportation,professional services,mining,healthcare).They also combine multiple use cases(e.g.remote object manipulation,high-speed broadband to the home and ofce,industrial automation,next-generation broadband for transport).However,realising the benefits of 5G networks requires the allocation of new spectrum,especially in high-frequency bands above 24 GHz,also known as mmWave.5G enabled by mmWave spectrum will bring far-reaching benefits to individuals,businesses,and governments around the world.The economic impact of mmWave 5G will vary between countries and evolve over time,taking into account national priorities and challenges as well as the development and deployment of 5G applications.Beyond the significant economic impact,the societal benefits of mmWave 5G are substantial,as the following regional examples demonstrate.3Regional SpotlightsTo provide a deeper analysis of mmWave 5Gs potential to address specific challenges,this report looks at two specific use cases in each of the following regions:ISub-Saharan Africa;ISouth and South East Asia and the Pacific Islands;ILatin America and the Caribbean(LAC);and IThe Regional Commonwealth in the field of Communications(RCC).While mmWave 5G will transform economies and societies in a multitude of ways beyond those described below,the examples highlighted in this report reflect both the scale and breadth of the potential impact of mmWave 5G across the globe.REGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5G4REGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:EXAMPLES OF PROJECTED IMPACTS AND BENEFITSBy enabling improvements to vital links in the economy such as port logistics infrastructure,5G will drive growth in the trade industry.mmWave 5G will enable coordinated movement of goods and remote control of essential machinery,leading to more efcient port operations and lower costs,allowing for increased trade.Sub-Saharan Africas important extractive industries will be able to leverage high-capacity wireless networks enabled by mmWave 5G to reduce costs and improve worker safety.Remotely controlled machinery,video surveillance,and remote diagnostics will bring the potential for lower operational and exploration costs,improved monitoring systems and reduced risk to personnel.mmWave 5G can provide“wireless fibre”connectivity,enabling use cases that provide economy-wide benefits,such as smart transportation,industrial automation,and improved healthcare.These and other use cases enabled by mmWave 5G will provide additional tools to policymakers designing integrated urban policies that improve quality of life for all citizens.High-capacity,low-latency networks can be used to deliver mission-critical communications and enable connected ambulances,unmanned ground and/or aerial vehicles,remote control of drones,and augmented reality applications.In addition,mmWave 5G will help operators address the fluctuating network demands characteristic of emergency situations.mmWave 5G will provide high-speed broadband to support virtual and augmented reality educational applications,allowing distance learning and richer educational experiences.This will expand opportunities and support improved educational outcomes,a benefit that will ripple through entire communities and societies.mmWave 5G applications can assist with the impact of rapid urbanisation by providing solutions to trafc congestion,long commute times,and poor air quality.It will enable connected transport environments,including V2X communication,connected cars and public transport systems,and intelligent transportation systems(ITS).mmWave 5G-enabled automation,connected transportation infrastructure and the introduction of remote object manipulation will benefit key industries in the region.They include transport,logistics,mining and oil extraction,and manufacturing.These increases in productivity will be key to continued long term economic growth in countries with declining population growth.mmWave 5G will provide high-speed broadband that enables virtual training to healthcare staf,remote participation of experts during difcult procedures,and remote diagnostic services.In this manner,mmWave 5G will lead to improved healthcare,especially through access to medical services in rural areas and higher-quality medical services overall.Sub-Saharan AfricammWave 5G is predicted to increase GDP by$5.2 billion by 2034RegionImpact examplesProject benefitsDescription of impactSouth&South East Asia and the Pacific IslandsmmWave 5G is expected to increase GDP by$45 billionLatin America and the CaribbeanmmWave 5G is expected to contribute to an economy-wide GDP increase of$20.8 billionRegional Commonwealth in the field of CommunicationsmmWave 5G applications are predicted to lend$6.7 billion in GDP growthPortInfrastructureMining andOil ExtractionConnectivityDisastermanagementEducationTransportationWorkforceproductivityHigh-qualityhealthcareImproved port efciencyLower logisticscostsReduced extraction costsIncreased safetyExpanded broadband accessFaster,more efcient emergency responseImproved access Richer educationOptimised transport routes/improved commute timesReduced pollutionDecreased fatalitiesAutomation and digitalisation of productive activitiesImproved healthcare quality and accessREGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5G5REGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5GUnlocking the benefits of mmWave 5GThe mobile industry has a track record of using spectrum to spur innovation and improve global communities.However,access to a sufcient amount of spectrum is an essential precursor to the development of the mobile ecosystem and the realisation of the full societal benefits of mmWave 5G.As noted by the regional examples highlighted on the previous page,mmWave spectrum can provide numerous high-capacity,low-latency 5G applications that will fuel economic growth and societal benefits around the world.However,the full potential of these benefits is dependent on administrations supporting the identification of new mmWave spectrum for mobile services at the 2019 World Radiocommunication Conference(WRC-19).Without adequate support,the deployment of 5G services may be delayed by up to a decade.61.IntroductionREGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5G7For each region two use cases are analysed.They all use mmWaves to enable new or improved tools and processes to increase economic growth and quality of life.The case studies consider key industries such as healthcare,education,trade,and extractive industries,as well as overarching applications like connectivity,industrial workforce productivity,and disaster communications.This report highlights key potential socioeconomic impacts of mmWave 5G across each of the included regions.Ultimately,the mix of tools and services enabled by mmWave 5G in each region(and the resulting socioeconomic impacts)will depend on numerous factors and will not be limited to the selected examples presented here.Similarly,these examples are relevant to varying degrees across all regions of the world.As such,the conclusions also ofer a broader context of the expected overall impact of mmWave 5G.Access to a sufcient amount of spectrum is fundamental to continue the positive benefits provided by mobile services,including those highlighted in this report for 5G networks.Furthermore,mmWave 5G requires new spectrum identification and in-country assignment,and this must be a top priority for administrationsincluding emerging economies.As such,the upcoming 2019 ITU World Radiocommunication Conference(WRC-19)presents a critical moment for administrations to secure mmWave spectrum for future use and delivery of 5G-enabled services and applications in their countries.SUB-SAHARAN AFRICASOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ISLANDSLATIN AMERICA ANDTHE CARIBBEAN(LAC)REGIONAL COMMONWEALTH IN THE FIELD OF COMMUNICATIONS(RCC)1SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAREGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5GThis report considers how mmWave 5G may play a role in the following four regions:1.The Regional Commonwealth in the field of Communications includes 12 countries from the former Soviet Union.82.Sub-Saharan AfricaREGIONAL SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5G9This is not to say that transport infrastructure and extractive industries are the only cases where mmWave 5G applications will be deployed or be impactful in the region.Quite the contrary,across industries,mmWave 5G is expected to contribute$5.2 billion in GDP and$970 million in tax revenue(Figure 1).2 This contribution is forecasted to impact a wide variety of industries and use cases.In a practical sense,mmWave 5G applications will be deployed and used in various ways,which in turn will impact multiple industry verticals as shown in the illustrative case studies considered below.In Sub-Saharan Africa,the roll-out of mobile networks and services has allowed communities to leapfrog wired infrastructure and embrace the Information Age much quicker and more cost efectively than in many developed countries.Building on earlier generations,5G brings new capabilities for mobile networks to contribute to and enable economic growth.5G,coupled with mmWave spectrum,opens up the potential for low-latency,data-intensive applications that can provide unique solutions to challenges facing countries in the region.This section focuses on two particular cases where mmWave 5G applications can significantly impact the region in the medium-term.The first case considers applications in transport logistics infrastructure,and the second examines the mining and hydrocarbon industries.2.These figures were based on the 2018 GSMA report,Study on Socio-Economic Benefits of 5G Services Provided in mmWave Bands,which studied the socio-economic impact of mmWave spectrum over a 15-year period(2020-2034).For more information,we invite you to read the full report at https:/ SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5GFIGURE 1:EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION FROM mmWAVE 5G TO GDP AND TAX,2034SUB-SAHARAN AFRICASource:GSMA and TMG(2018),“Study on Socio-Economic Benefits of 5G Services Provided in mmWave Bands,”https:/ SPOTLIGHTS:IMPACT OF MMWAVE 5G2.1.Sub-Saharan Africa,Case Study#1:Smart transportation logistics hubsAfrica has 38 countries with a coastline and over 50 ports handling container and other types of cargo.More than 90%of trade to and from Africa is by sea.The volume of container trafc in and out of Sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing at an average annual rate of 3.6%from 2011-2017,demonstrating the growing trade volumes handled in the country.This growth rate is at a similar pace to average GDP annual growth rate,which was 3.5%over the same period(Figure 2).3 In addition,the remaining landlocked African countries are served indirectly by these coastal seaports and have various forms of inland transportation hubs.These inland logistics hubs are also referred to as“dry ports”and link various modes of transport to seaports in order to deliver cargo from overseas destinations to inland destinations,and vice versa.This case study examines how mmWave 5G will impact transport logistics infrastructure,such as in-land transport hubs and seaports.The application of several mmWave 5G uses cases will be considered in the context of smart infrastructure,including next-generation broadband for transport,remote object manipulation,and high-speed broadband to the ofce.Certain industries may be particularly impacted by these mmWave 5G applications,beyond the direct benefits to trade.For ins