Dentsu Aegis-2020年全球广告支出预测报告（英文）-2020.2-20页.pdf

Global Ad Spend ForecastsJanuary2020The decline of traditional advertising mediums continues,with printed newspapers and magazines forecast at-7.1%and-6.3%respectively in 2020.However,TV and radio are expected to make a modest recovery at 0.6%and 1.7%respectively.Voice assistants and addressable TV are breathing new life into traditional media.Online video is expected to grow at 14.6%in 2020.Mobile is set to overtake TV ad spend share in 2020.Global ad spend growth is forecast at 3.9%in 2020,amounting to US$615.4 billion.However,ad spend is expected to decline in some key markets in 2020 including Germany,Spain and Italy,reflecting economic trends in those countries.China and India are on different paths in terms of ad spend growth,forecast at 5.6%and 10.9%respectively.Latin America is growing rapidly driven by digital ad spend.Global digital ad spend growth is forecast at 10.5%in 2020,amounting to US$276 billion.Top ad spend trends in 20201.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.2.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020Against a backdrop of long-running trends shaping ad spendthe increasing power of digital,the rise of mobilethere are a number of ways in which 2020 looks set to be different.Lets take a look at the key ad spend trends this year from both a market and a media perspective.Whats new in 2020?Market outlook:Events drive ad spend globally Global ad spend growth is forecast at 3.9%in 2020,amounting to US$615.4 billion,propelled by a number of key sporting and political events such as the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics 2020,UEFA European Football Championships and the US Presidential elections.The US elections alone are estimated to attract as much as$10 billion in additional ad spend.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 20203.The cold winds of recession?The global outlook sees ad spend continuing to grow,but forecasts across many markets have been revised down since our previous forecasts in June 2019(see Figure 1),indicating caution as global economic forecasts reach their lowest level in ten years.The Asia-Pacific(APAC)region has been revised down by-0.7%,despite still being the fastest-growing economic region in the world.Meanwhile,the UKstill forecast to grow at 6%in 2020has been revised down by-0.6%following a sluggish year economically and continued Brexit uncertainty.A number of western European markets(e.g.Italy,Germany and Spain)have not only been revised down but are predicted to experience decline in overall ad spend growth both in 2020 and in 2021.Spain and Germany both lowered their 2020 economic forecasts.Political deadlock and international trade tensions continue to affect Spain,and Germanys export-reliant economy only narrowly avoided recession in the third quarter of 2019 due to,in part,a falling global demand for capital goods.In Italy,advertising spend made global headlines when it put into full force a national ban on gambling advertising in July 2019.The ban is predicted to cost advertising and sponsorship stakeholders between 150-200 million in revenues per year.The UK has been revised down by-0.6%following a sluggish year economically and continued Brexit uncertainty.”“Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 20204.Markets2019a*2020f2021fGlobal2.6(3.6)3.9(4.1)3.3N.America3.2(3.2)3.8(3.7)2.8USA3.1(3.1)3.8(3.6)2.8Canada5.4(5.3)5.5(5.7)3.9W.Europe2.2(2.8)2.6(3.1)2.4UK6.1(6.3)6.0(6.6)6.3Germany-1.1(0.4)-1.5(0.5)-1.2France5.0(3.6)5.1(3.0)4.5Italy-1.6(-1.6)-0.1(0.6)-0.6Spain-1.0(0.5)-1.3(0.4)-1.6C&EE4.4(4.9)5.1(5.6)5.1Russia4.4(4.5)5.7(5.8)5.6Asia-Pacific2.3(4.0)4.2(4.9)3.6Australia1.8(1.9)3.8(3.2)2.7China3.1(5.4)5.6(6.9)5.0India9.4(11.4)10.9(12.2)12.0Japan1.2(1.2)2.0(1.8)1.0Latin America5.4(9.1)9.5(6.1)6.3Brazil4.0(8.8)8.9*(4.5)3.4Figure 1:Growth in global ad spend 2019-21f(selected markets)Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jun 2019/*2019 actuals are based on Nov 2019 figuresSource:Dentsu Aegis Network Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020Global year-on-year%growth at current prices*A change in methodology may impact this growth forecast5.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020New world,new growthIndia is not alone in its double-digit growth.There are a select few markets that can expect the same this year.Ad spend in developing markets like Mexico and Argentina is forecast at 10.5%and 16%respectively in 2020.Growth in these markets and the rest of Latin America is predominantly driven by digital ad spend.Supported by faster broadband and mobile networks,six out of ten people in Latin America are expected to be internet users in 2020,up from less than half of people just five years previously.However,fast-growing regions like Latin America and APAC are not the only contributors to growth.At 5.1%in 2020,Central and Eastern Europe(C&EE)is forecast to grow by 0.9%more than APAC this year.Again,digital ad spend drives growth.Russia,Turkey,the Czech Republic,Romania,Bulgaria and Latvia all expect double-digit digital ad spend growth.Coupled with the region having withstood well Western Europes economic slowdown since mid-2018,the majority of markets in C&EE expect 2020 ad spend growth that surpasses the global forecast.China and India take separate pathsChinas 2020 forecast has been revised down from 6.9%to 5.6%,its pace of growth decelerating as 2021 forecasts reach 5.0%.This comes alongside the economys moderating growth in recent years,marked by slowing retail sales and industrial output,a trend that is expected to continue.At the same time,Indias ad spend growth is going through the roof.Since forecasting on this market began in 2000,India has experienced stellar growth and is forecast double-digit growth this year(10.9%)and next(12%).Driving this growth significantly is the rate at which India is embracing the digital economy.Digital ad spend in India is forecast at 27%in 2020 and 27.5%in 2021.Of the total number of internet users worldwide,India jumped by almost 100 million users in 2018 at 21%annual growth and accounting for over a quarter of global growth.China witnessed 6.7%growth in the same period.Moreover,domestic consumption in India has increased 3.5 times in the last decade,as affluent households have more than doubled since 2008.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 20206.Media outlook:Traditional advertising,but not as we know itWhile digital has dominated ad spend growth in recent years,traditional advertising mediums are showing signs of a modest recovery in 2020.Television is predicted to maintain around one-third(31.5%)of global ad spend share this year and to grow at 0.6%(see Figure 2).Radio is forecast to grow at 1.7%,an increase of two percentage points from last year.Figure 2:Growth in global ad spend by media,2019-21f(selected markets)2019a*2020f2021fTelevision-1.8(-0.1)0.6(0.6)0.0Newspapers-8.5(-7.7)-7.1(-6.6)-10.2Magazines-7.4(-7.4)-6.3(-6.0)-11.5Radio-0.3(1.7)1.7(0.6)0.8Cinema9.7(6.1)5.0(5.9)4.8Out-Of-Home1.5(4.3)2.4(3.9)2.5Digital11.2(11.5)10.5(11.0)9.5Global year-on-year%growth at current pricesFigures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jun 2019/*2019 actuals are based on Nov 2019 figuresSource:Dentsu Aegis Network Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 20207.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020So whats changed?New technologies and innovations are enhancing traditional mediums to provide consumers with more engaging and relevant consumer experiences.Take TV.Consumers are no longer confined to the television set and to a linear service.From tuning in on their mobiles to streaming on-demand,TV continues to innovate,increasing audience numbers and encouraging ad spend.In 2020,there are a number of key technologies helping to boost spend in traditional advertising.Voice brings new life to radioFrom Google Home to Amazons Alexa,voice-assisted technologies(e.g.smart speakers)have become a highly convenient way for consumers to engage online.For many,typing into a search engine fails to offer the seamless experiences of“OK Google”or“Hey Siri.”Today,there are around 4 billion voice assistants in use worldwide.The popularity of smart speaker devices is creating a new audience for radio.While China boasts the greatest number of smart speaker users globally,the US has the highest penetration at around 26%of internet users.In the first quarter of 2018,smart speakers made up about 16%or more of streaming of US public radio stations.This year,radio ad spend growth in the US is forecast at 2.3%,ahead of the global average.With the number of voice assistants worldwide expected to double by 2023,increasing radio trafficand with it,increasing radio ad spendmay make itself a long-term trend.The popularity of smart speakers devices is creating a new audience for radio.”Addressable TV captures audiencesAddressable(or connected)TV blurs the lines further between television and digital by enabling marketers to target their advertising at consumers as they do so for online ads.On the tails of streaming services,addressable TV advertising has grown rapidly,reaching US$1 billion in 2019.It now accounts for 0.7%of the total linear TV advertising market and is expected to account for 10%by 2022.With analysis showing that viewers watching addressable adverts on TV are a third less likely to switch channel during an ad break,marketers are quickly appreciating the benefits that addressable TV can offer.“Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 20208.Out-Of-Home gets a digital makeoverDigital Out-Of-Home(DOOH)enables marketers to go beyond just targeting their advertising to also augmenting the customer experience with technologies,like VR and facial recognition.From Walt Disneys geotargeted promotion of Avengers:Endgame across bus shelters in Singapore to drive local ticket sales,to MINI celebrating its 60th year with a personalised message campaign to Australian MINI drivers,brands around the world are using digital to get creative with their advertising.As a result,OOH has experienced moderate sustained growth in recent years and is forecast to grow by 2.4%in 2020.Marketers have been so taken with OOHs new potential that in some markets,DOOH has even overtaken its more traditional counterpart.In the UK,DOOH is predicted to account for 57%of total OOH ad spend in 2020.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 20209.Turn on,tune in,dont drop out With over a quarter of consumers now installing ad blockers,consumers overexposure to ads is a big concern for marketers.Programmatic advertising lets marketers automatically buy,optimise and measure their digital campaigns and therefore better target consumers.Google found that already 16%of addressable TV inventory is now bought and sold programmatically and 2020 is predicted as the year that programmatic DOOH goes mainstream.Against this backdrop,our forecasts show programmatic ad spend going from strength to strength.Growth in global digital ad spend bought programmatically is forecast at 19.1%in 2020.Our forecasts show programmatic ad spend going from strength to strength.”“Mobile overtakes TVSince our mobile forecasts began in 2016,global mobile ad spend has more than doubled.Mobile(32.1%)is set to overtake TV(31.5%)this year in terms of share of ad spend.Mobile ad spend growth remains strong and is forecast at 16.5%in 2020,amounting to US$172.6 million.Desktop ad spend,in comparison,is in decline at-1.8%.All the regions analysed by our forecasts expect double-digit growth in mobile ad spend this year,with high growth expected in APAC and C&EE.Estonia(50%),the Czech Republic(41.8%)and India(40.6%)stand out for expecting very strong growth.In the case of India,its mobile market remains very robust,despite smartphone shipments having slowed or declined in most of the world.India overtook the US to become the second largest smartphone market in 2018,behind only China.10.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020How are you seeing addressable TV growing today?Brad:In the beginning,it was the automotive and finance brands that understood addressable TVs effectiveness.Whats great to see now is that other markets and brands are starting to get involved.Every brand is on their own journey of innovation and today,many are realising this space makes a lot of sense for their marketing.Dan:Markets like the US and the UK are further along their addressable TV journey because of their high penetration rates of digital,but we are starting to see it take offas mobile hasin developing regions like Asia and particularly in China,because there isnt the same legacy system of analogue TV and transmitters.Addressing addressable TV Q&A with Brad Stockton,Vice-President of Video Innovation at Dentsu Aegis Network US&Dan Calladine,Head of Media Futures at Carat(part of Dentsu Aegis Network)What do you think are the greatest benefits of addressable TV for marketers?Brad:Incremental reach.Addressable TV has now innovated to provide marketers with viewership data and understand which consumers are being over-or under-exposed.It allows you to see if a consumer,who had viewed your ad,went to your store or visited your website.Addressable TV isnt just applicable for brands interested in targeting certain groups,it has relevance for all brands who want to kill ad waste and heighten their campaigns effectiveness.Dan:And for those brands interested in targeting consumer groups,the advertising costs can be significantly lower.You no longer need a regional campaign to market with TV.If youre a luxury goods company like LVMH,for example,you can now advertise in certain postcodes where you think people have more purchasing power.Whats more,theres so much flexibility in who you target.You can do it by preferences,by age,by locationwhatever helps you reach your target audience.11.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020Any disadvantages?Dan:Marketers can get obsessed with targeting niche audiences.If youre interested in maximising reach,then traditional TV is undefeated.Thats why brands still pay millions to have their adverts appear in the breaks of the FIFA World Cup and the Superbowl.Brad:Agreed.Brands can get too finite and expect too much.If your audience is only 1%of the population,you cant scale that.If your audience is 35%of the population,then you might as well have a national ad.Any advice to marketers on how to make the most of addressable TV?Dan:If you want something to generate a buzz,then start as broad as possible.Go for the national ad so everyones talking about itthen go niche and start targeting particular groups with addressable TV.Brad:Find the right balance.Addressable TV is all about identifying a strategic audience that is small enough to be worth addressing and big enough to be worth scaling.12.Global Ad Spend Forecasts January 2020The new decade may bring with it new trends to our ad spend forecasts,but there are a number of patterns that have emerged since 2010 that remain fixedat least,for the time being.Growth,come rain or shineGrowth has dominated the last ten years of global ad spend.In 2020,total global ad spend is predicted to have increased by more than half(51.2%)its total in