J.P. 摩根-全球-投资策略-全球固定收益技术策略：美国国债市场的疲软对关键阻力位构成了压力-2019.5.9-21页.pdfVIP免费

GlobalTechnicalStrategy09May2019GlobalFixedIncomeTechnicalStrategistThebellyoftheTreasurymarketpressureskeyresistancelevelsGlobalFixedIncomeandUSEquityIndexTechnicalStrategyJasonHunterAC(1-212)270-0034jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.comAlixTepperFloman(1-212)622-9461alix.tepper@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCSeepage18foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.www.jpmorganmarkets.comThereareonlyafewmoredaystoparticipateinthe2019InstitutionalInvestorGlobalFixed-IncomePoll.WewouldgreatlyappreciateyoursupportintheUSATechnicalAnalysis,EuropeTechnicalAnalysis,AsiaTechnicalAnalysis,andUSAQuantitativeAnalysiscategoriesofthesurvey.ThosecategoriescanbefoundundertheEconomics&Strategysectionsforeachregion.ThisyearyouareabletorateJ.P.Morganatthefirmlevelineachofthosecategories,andthenseparatelyratetheindividualanalystswithinthosecategoriesaswell(1-5stars).Wehopeourattempttotransitiontechnicalstrategyfromacollectionofanecdotestoamorequantitativedisciplinehascreatedausefultooltohelpinyourdecisionmakingprocess.Asalways,pleasefeelfreetoreachoutwithanycomments,questions,orrequests.Thankyouinadvanceforyoursupport.Pleasefollowthislinktovote/requestaballot.Treasuriesbullishlypressurekeyshort-termresistanceparametersandthreatentoderailourbearishmedium-termoutlook.Wecontinuetobelievethetechnicalandcross-marketsetupsleantowardayieldriseintothesummer,butrecognizethatovernightheadlineshavethepotentialtomarkadecisiveinflectionforthemarkets.Forthe10-yearnote,wearelookingforadecisiveandsustainedbreakthroughthe2.415%Apr1beargapor2.52%May6bullgaptosetthetone.....pg.3-810-yearBund:Yieldscheapenbacktowardthe-0.031%/-0.042%Aprrangerichesafterrallyingthroughthatareaearlierthisweek.Sustainedmovescheaperthan0.08-0.125%supportareneededtogetthemedium-termbearishoutlookbackontrack.Keyresistancecomesinnear-0.10%......pg.910-yearBTPsgaptohigheryieldsafterbearishlybasingnearthe2.40-2.50%keychartinflection…...pg.9UK10-yearGiltyieldstradeinashort-termrangeinfrontofthe1.24-1.25%mid-Marpeaksandbehi...